Ukraine War: Current Challenges and Future Prospects

Ukraine faces a challenging stalemate, with dwindling resources and uncertain support amidst ongoing conflict.

### The Stalemate in Ukraine: Analyzing the Current Conflict Dynamics
* The ongoing war in Ukraine raises the critical question of whether Ukraine can achieve victory, as Russian forces currently control about **18% of Ukrainian territory** after over **2.5 years of fighting**.
* 🔫 Ukrainian troops are facing significant challenges, being **outnumbered and outgunned**, with little hope for immediate relief, especially with the **uncertainty surrounding U.S. support** following Donald Trump's presidential victory.
* ❄ As winter approaches, some analysts suggest that Ukraine may need to adopt a **more realistic strategy**, especially as Russia continues to make **slow gains on the battlefield**.
* 📊 Retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmit highlighted the importance of understanding the battlefield's geography, noting that "**4/5 of the country is not involved in the war directly**," with the primary focus currently on the **Donetsk and Luhansk regions**.
* ✈ The recent Ukrainian drone strikes into Russia have been a significant development, targeting military infrastructure, but General Kimmit describes the overall situation as a **stalemate**, with neither side gaining a **decisive advantage**.
* ⚖ The Biden administration has expressed concerns regarding President Zelensky's war aims, questioning the **realism of regaining full control over Eastern Ukraine and Crimea** amidst a **lack of progress on the battlefield**.
* 💔 Casualty estimates indicate a staggering toll, with Ukrainian losses at approximately **80,000 dead and 400,000 wounded**, while Russian casualties may be as high as **200,000 dead**, leading to **manpower issues for both sides**.
* 🤔 With the political landscape shifting and the potential for decreased support from the U.S., General Kimmit foresees a challenging path ahead for Ukraine, emphasizing that "**political and diplomatic issues** are going to **overwhelm the battlefield issues**."

(soldier speaks foreign language) (missile fires) (gun shots) - [Narrator] Can Ukraine win? That's the question on the minds of many analysts as the war in Ukraine grinds on. - With regards to Ukrainian forces, a friend described it as they are bleeding out. - [Narrator] Today, after over 2.5 years of fighting, Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory. What's more, Ukrainian troops are outnumbered and outgunned with little prospect of significant relief. Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election also brings a fresh jolt of uncertainty to continue US support for Ukraine. - Do you want Ukraine to win this war? - I want the war to stop. I want to save lives. (tank fires) - [Narrator] Now, with Russia continuing to make slow gains on the battlefield and Kiev facing a tough winter, some believe Ukraine may need to come up with a more realistic plan.

(missile fires) - To better understand the state of play on the battlefield and what may come next, (missile fires) the Wall Street Journal sat down with retired Brigadier General Mark Kimmit. - Before we talk about the battlefield, it might be helpful to put the battlefield in perspective. Ukraine is much, much larger. It goes along this entire borderline, 4/5 of the country is not involved in the war directly, there's no direct combat action going on. The Russians right now are focused as a main effort is up in the Donetsk and Luhansk. They're trying to, of course, continue to push to the East, but there are also two other areas of interest. This area around Sumy is the area that people now know as the Khursk salient, where the Ukrainians made an attack into Russia proper, trying to pull off a significant amount of forces from the front lines. - [Narrator] According to General Kimmit,

the Khursk salient attack wasn't just the most effective move Ukraine made within the past year; it was also a significant propaganda victory for the Ukrainians. I think it was masterful in terms of the element of surprise that they could attack into Russia, make gains, and point a dagger towards Moscow a couple of hundred miles away. It was, in many ways, wrong in terms of its other intent, which was to draw key Russian forces off the Eastern front. And I think it was wrong (missile fires) because it was inevitable that the Russians would do what the Russians always do, which is, they're now trying to envelop that force. Over here, in Luhansk, in Donetsk, the battle for the last six months has for the most part been focused on one side defending and the other side attacking key road installations. Primarily, these two roads going Kharkiv are being blocked at these key intersections.

where a number of roads come through, but these are very, very small areas, very small distances measured in the kilometers, in many ways, in many times, to hundreds of meters. Down here in Zaporizhia and Kherson, it's clear that the Russians are holding the line there. I don't think there's an opportunity for this winter for the Ukrainian forces to make any headway down here. They might in fact push out a little bit from Kherson, but I think they're going to go into the wintertime holding the line. So overall, stalemate along this line. This is where the main effort of the Russian forces is focused upon, trying to break through along this route and along this route to either threaten Kharkiv or to come down here and surround the forces that are the Ukrainian forces that are attacking along this route. And of course, trying to get Donetsk back if either Ukrainians

and attack West if you're the Russians. So watch this area for the main action, supporting action up here around Kharkiv and Khursk. And holding the line down here in Zaporizhia and Kherson. - [Narrator] In recent months, the Ukrainians have had success deploying drone swarms into Russia. These long-range strikes which have reached all the way to Russia's arctic shores in the north and areas bordering Kazakhstan in the east, have slammed into missile storage facilities, strategic fuel reserves, military airfields, and defense plants. Despite the many sacrifices made thus far by the Ukrainians, General Kimmit sees the conflict as an ongoing stalemate. - I think it'd be accurate to say that neither side is winning, nor is either side losing. But if you talk about the ability to replace those forces, it is clear that the Ukrainians are losing capability at a faster rate than the Russians are losing capability.

- [Narrator] The West still backs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's long-term stated aim of taking back control of Ukrainian territory. But recently, the Biden administration said it was concerned that the Ukrainian leader's plan for winning the war against Russia lacks a comprehensive strategy. - His war aims, which is pushing the Russians out, restoring sovereignty both on Eastern Ukraine and on Crimea, my view is, that's impossible, unrealistic. - [Narrator] The lack of progress on the battlefield has led some European diplomats to question the feasibility of Zelensky's war aims. - The expense to the European economies to provide weapons and equipment is starting to bite. They don't have that excess capacity for one, they don't have the industrial capability to produce replacements, two, and three, as we, the United States, continue to press for them to meet their NATO obligations,

to do all of that is a pretty tough call on the Europeans. Another concern is population decline. A confidential Ukrainian estimate from earlier this year put the number of dead Ukrainian troops at 80,000 and the wounded at 400,000, according to people familiar with the matter. Western intelligence estimates of Russian casualties vary, with some putting the number of dead as high as nearly 200,000 and the wounded at around 400,000. To shore up its manpower on the battlefield, Russia is also looking to North Korean troops. The Pentagon recently said, North Korea sent about 10,000 troops to Russia. If you think about war, 90%, 95% of soldiers on the battlefield aren't on the front lines. They're cooking, they're in command posts, they're repairing trucks. That's why Ukraine conscripts from the top, troubling it is now the case that they're sending some

of those older men into the trench lines. It's clear that Zelensky wants to protect the 18 to 25-year-old cohort because that's the future of Ukraine, both in available military if necessary, but really to rebuild the post-war economy that will come. Unfortunately, many of those are defecting or deserting. So, in my mind, Zelensky has got a personnel issue, not only in terms of sheer numbers, but also in terms of support for the war among the military. - [Narrator] Another important factor is the new US President-elect Donald Trump. Trump has vowed to end the war quickly. - I think Zelensky is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that's ever lived. Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion. Looking ahead, General Kimmit sees a hard road for the Ukrainians. - There is little doubt in my mind that the Ukrainian armed forces could continue

to stay intact and on the battlefield through 2025, through a year from now. But I think the political and diplomatic issues are going to overwhelm the battlefield issues. (pensive music) (gunshot) (soldiers speak foreign language)

With a Trump Victory, What’s Next for the Russia-Ukraine War? | WSJ

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The Wall Street Journal

The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for over 2.

5 years, with Russia controlling about 18% of the territory and Ukrainian forces facing significant challenges.

The recent presidential election in the US brings uncertainty to ongoing support for Ukraine.

General Mark Kimmit highlights the importance of the Khursk salient attack as a significant move for Ukraine, both strategically and as a propaganda victory.

The frontlines in Zaporizhia and Kherson show a clear Russian hold, with little opportunity for Ukrainian forces to make significant progress this winter.

The main focus of Russian forces is to break through key routes and surround Ukrainian troops, while the Ukrainians have been successful in deploying drone swarms for long-range strikes into Russia.

Overall, the conflict is characterized as a stalemate, with the Ukrainians losing capability at a faster rate than the Russians.

The West continues to support President Zelensky's goal of reclaiming Ukrainian territory, but the Biden administration is concerned about the lack of a comprehensive strategy.

European diplomats are questioning the feasibility of Zelensky's war aims due to the high cost of providing weapons and equipment.

The conflict has resulted in significant troop casualties for both Ukraine and Russia, leading to Russia seeking additional manpower from North Korea.

Zelensky's Personnel Challenge and Trump's Impact

Zelensky is focused on protecting the 18 to 25-year-old cohort for Ukraine's future, but many are defecting or deserting.

The new US President-elect, Donald Trump, has vowed to end the war quickly, raising concerns for Zelensky's support.

General Kimmit predicts a challenging road for the Ukrainian armed forces, with political and diplomatic issues potentially overwhelming the battlefield situation.