Hurricane Impact Update: Landfall and Wind Forecasts

Hurricane winds are intensifying as it approaches landfall near Sarasota, with major impacts expected across the region.

### Hurricane Update: Major Impacts Expected for Tampa Bay Area
* 🌪 As of the latest update, the hurricane has been downgraded from a **Category 4 to a Category 3**, with winds reaching **125 miles per hour**, and it is moving **northeast at 17 miles per hour**.
* ⏰ The projected landfall is expected as early as **9:00 p.m.**, significantly speeding up from initial estimates of **overnight into early Thursday morning**, with the storm currently **less than 100 miles from Tampa Bay**.
* 📍 The track indicates potential landfall in Sarasota and Manatee County, with a **margin of error of about 25 to 50 miles**, meaning the **exact impact area could shift slightly**.
* 🌧 A flood warning is in effect due to heavy rain bands, with areas expecting **8 to 12 inches of rainfall**, which could lead to **flash flooding**, especially in northern coastal communities.
* 💨 Wind gusts have been reported **up to 63 miles per hour** off the coast, with expectations of gusts reaching **110 miles per hour** as the storm approaches, prompting the issuance of **extreme wind warnings**.
* 🌊 Surge levels are anticipated to be between **8 to 12 feet**, with the highest impacts expected in areas recently affected by another hurricane, such as **Cayo Costa**.
* 🌀 The storm's wind patterns are expected to create a **negative surge in some areas**, which could provide **temporary relief**, but the stronger winds will still pose a **significant risk of damage and power outages**.
* 📉 With the pressure of the storm increasing slightly, it indicates a **potential weakening**; however, the high wind speeds and heavy rainfall will still lead to **major impacts across the region**.

absolutely, Courtney. The last update that we had at 4:00, that's when we saw the downgrading of the storm from a category 4 to a category 3, which is still a major hurricane at category 3. So, this is the four o'clock stats where this could update any second while I'm in the middle of this, but winds 125 miles per hour. This is the important part. It's moving northeast at 17 miles per hour, and we have been talking about the track. We would like to see the track a little bit more easterly because that will kind of bring it away from Tampa Bay, but northeast at 17 miles per hour. You'll notice since it's a little less than 100 miles away from the mouth of Tampa Bay, that really has sped up our time for landfall. We were initially saying overnight into early Thursday morning. Well, guess what? We'll have landfall as early as 9:00 p.m. at this rate. Now, the storm can slow a little bit ahead of

landfall. These systems typically do do that, but moving Northeast at 17 miles an hour with less than 100 miles to go, we absolutely can have landfall within the next four to five hours here. So here's the recent track. There's Milton very close to the coastline. And by the way, landfall, we wait for the center of that eye to be perpendicular with land, and that's when we can officially say that we have landfall. So we're a couple hours away from that, but you see that the track brings it right into Sarasota and Manatee County, and there's little margin for error at this time, about 25 miles, 50 miles margin for hour, meaning that the landfall spot can change a little bit. Right now, we know the County Sarasota and Manatee County where this likely will make landfall. And again, if we have that easterly change, we like to see that here in Tampa Bay, but no matter how we look at it, somebody is going to have major impacts from this hurricane. So

here's a track over the last few hours. Here you can see in the recent update at four, uh, 4:00. Yeah, we had that downgraded to the Category 3 Storm, still high-end Category 3, I should mention. This maroon box that you see here, which extends over a large portion of the peninsula, that would be a flood warning. And I know the colors are very similar here, uh, but the bright red is when we have those tornado warnings, which we did see earlier today, and those far outer bands that were troublesome. Thankfully, those far outer bands are moving away from our area, and now it's becoming more of a flash flood threat. And that's why we do have that flood warning that's in effect. So be aware that we still have heavy bands of rain moving through the region. Also, we're starting to get high wind reports, and, uh, we just got a message from the National Weather Service not too long ago that they're actually going to start issuing, uh, extreme wind reports or extreme wind

warnings I should say e eww that's something you don't see every day as a meteorologist. So basically what they're going to do is they're going to uh areas that have the threat of winds greater than 115 milph as that I wall gets a little bit closer. They're going to start issuing those um wind reports. So right now winds the largest gust that we've seen with this storm about a 100 miles away off the coast from Tampa uh at Albert wted. We had a 63 mile per hour gust and that's a typical thunderstorm gust. If you want to um break it down a severe thunderstorm warning would be issued with a 65 m per hour gust. Of course this is a tropical system and those gust that's just the threshold. We will have much much stronger winds as the storm gets closer. We're just waiting for that landfall time. The gusts kind of go down from there 54 miles hour St PE Clearwater Airport Sarasota Bradon 53 m.

per hour gust going all the way down to Tampa at a 39 M per hour gust. Now the tides notice I'm going to step off screen here so you can see low tide today for St Pete was 20:4 p.m. High tide tomorrow morning is just before 6:00 a.m. So this is helping us just a little bit because we want lower tide for that surge right that will lower our surge num. Still expecting surge that can be uh just devastating to some communities especially communities that have already been hit by a major hurricane two weeks ago less than two weeks ago cesta key. Also the uh low tide was early this morning so the high tide is a little bit earlier tomorrow morning than what we're seeing in St Petersburg. Tomorrow their high tide is around 300 a.m. So we definitely want this storm to keep this speed that uh it's going right now. Some local impacts here and again these can change. I have tweaked them just a little bit recently uh so now

through 6:00 a.m. for Citrus Hernando Pasco County. We're looking at winds 75 to 110 mph. Winds possible, of course, that 110 mph wind. That would be for those gusts as that storm nears closer. Areas like Hudson, Newport Richie, Pine Island, across the coastal communities, of course, you will be hit the hardest there. Now, you are on the north side of the storm, so our main concern for these communities would be that rain, 8 to 12 inches of rainfall, flash flooding likely. And although you're not technically in that flood warning, the flood warning is a little bit south of you guys. I would not be surprised if they did extend that flood warning once those outer bands started moving into your region a little bit more. So that's for northernmost counties heading down to Hillsborough and Pinellas County. So now through 6:00 a.m., we will have those winds 65. I'm only, I'm going to bump that up to 115 miles per hour.

and again that's gust, and we are waiting for those wind warnings to be issued by the National Weather Service. 6 to 10 inches of rain; some spots definitely could get higher than 6 to 10 inches. And then the surge. Again, the surge numbers around 9 to 13 feet. Um, I think they did drop that down to 8 to 12 feet though, and we will see if that changes with the 5m advisory. And then landfall tonight will likely be south of Tampa Bay, and we have a 5:00 advisory. All right, so we're getting some new numbers here. I want to see if I can jump back to my timeline here. Of course, the biggest impacts will be around Manatee and Sarasota County, and Chris is bringing up the latest stats on Milton right now. Okay, so it looks like the wind speed is now at 120, so it is still a category 3, a high-end Category 3 hurricane at this time. It was 125.

It's still moving Northeast at 17 miles per hour. Chris, did you notice it looks like that pressure did increase? I think it's up three m. Okay, so the pressure is up three mbar. So, that means that the storm is weakening. When the pressure is lowering, when that number gets lower, that means the storm is strengthening. And currently, it's about 170 miles Southwest of Orlando. So, it looks like our local area was updated. So, I'm going to see if I can get a little bit of a track. So, it's less than 100 miles away from Tampa right now. And I want to see if I can zoom in on the eye here and see if I can get a for you guys just to see how far away the storm is. So, we know at 4:00, it was about 100 miles away. Let's see. I'm just going to zoom in. So, just bear with me. Six. All right. So, Chief Meteorologist Bobby Des Refes jumping in here. And it's about 60 miles west-southwest.

Excuse me of Sarasota. So, and it looks like my computer is freezing out on me. Why don't go ahead and take uh weather two. I can handle that one. All right, so Bobby's going to jump on here. Weather two is up, and what you're looking right now is we're getting that 5:00 update in. If you guys could put up weather two for us. She's got it. She's got it. She's got it. That's it. Uh, so 120 948. I was 945 or 944. Not much up more, but the next one, the important one here is going to be uh the track, and we did get a new track with that as well. And so that will basically put it, well, it's not much of a a different track, but that'll put it right across Sarasota. Uh, Sarasota right in here. It's more right up towards braon. Little south of braon, right? And then moving off uh 90 m per hour winds after cat, after uh 2 am. So earlier two landfall was 2 am. Now you

can see it's over Lakeland at 2 am. And then by 2 pm, it's well off the east coast. So, that has sped up as we anticipated. You can see the forecast models are still trying to keep this thing a little bit further to the north of that track. This is the deal. So, this is what we're looking at now. And you can see basically where here's their forecast track. They've still got a little bit lower, but where is this going? And that's what we want to see. So, let me kind of get a little bit closer on here. And we'll zoom in because that center is just off towards the west there. And it is not far at all. So, there is the... This is what I'm concerned about, that part right there. And there's a spot right out in here. I just clocked 138 mph winds in that one spot. That's up above the ground. That is not on the ground, but that's in the strong part. What that tells you is that

the strong part where the winds are is going to be on the north side of this eyewall, and this is going to go like this right up the mouth of the bay. An Maria Brenon Palto, uh, Ruskin National Weather Service, is that little circle that's right there. That's Ruskin, uh, Wama, Sun City Center. I think the highest winds are probably going to end up going right over those locations. That's likely where we'll get that excessive wind warning that will be coming out here soon. And then, of course, you're going to get it back down further. Uh, let me, you know, got to grab my eyes that I left over here on the on the toan. Not used to having to do that, but nowadays got to get my glasses going here. Uh, the velocity, that way I can show you what I was looking at. You see that pink area out there? Now this is looking up in the atmosphere a little bit, not a whole lot, but that's showing 133 m per hour winds in this little section right in here.

just that one little area. It's obviously less than here, but that's the business end of this hurricane right there, okay? And so we want to track exactly where that's going to go. Now that wind will be a Northeast wind, right? And that's good news for the surge in the bay because that blows the water out. So if you were here for Irma, Irma went right up over here. It's kind of went right up east of Arcadia, right up over Lakeland. We had a Northeast wind, blew the water out, manatees stuck in the bay until the water came back up, right? People walking in the bay, not... We didn't have the winds in Irma that we're going to have in this. We will have more wind for that out of the North and the East as it goes by. In fact, it'll be Southeast, East, Northeast as it all goes by, but guys, that is a ton of wind out there, and that's going to do the damage with saw trees down, power

outages, all of that stuff. This whole section in here is the one that's really going to do that. Okay, the problem is, is you're going to get these winds increasing here out of the South and the East, right from this direction to there. And then all of a sudden, that weakens your trees, it weakens the things. And then this part comes in, and the wind now is coming from the Northeast. And one something that was blown over like this, now it gets blown over like that. And it's already weakened. And so we tend to see damage more so on the back side because the front side weakened it. The back side tends to take it down. So I would imagine that as we go, we got 5:00 now. This is, let's do some math here, and I'll show you just the regular radar. This is about, let's see, the Leading Edge of this from Bradon is about 40 miles moving to the Northeast at 17 times three, a little less than that. So we're talking two and a half

hours for this to get to Bradon and Ami, and that'll put us at about 7:30. All right, so between now and then, the winds will do nothing but increase. You'll have some waves that come down a little bit, but overall, it will come up. And then we're really going to start to see it at 7, 8, 9:00. We've got our crews right now, basically most of them will be in by 700 p.m. That's kind of the estimated time that I told them, but I think that's going to be a good number for at least the immediate Coast. May have to be a little bit later if we want, but we just want to keep everybody safe. So probably going to be S, but that's going to be the bulk of it, 7 p.m. through 11 p.m. of that moving through the area. Bobby, I have a question. We're talking about the surgery, looking at these winds. What about people who are maybe looking at this and going, Oh, okay, so now here I

am above above that Bradenton line right and okay but it's it's not that because of the the that Northwest area kind of yes because of this right here yeah so what do we so these people that in and around the water are are relieved because it looks like that will have less surge right in fact it'll blow it will have a negative surge is what we call it uh I think before that gets here the water levels will come up they've started to come up already and that's from the southeasterly wind that we've seen so there are some spots that because the wind speed will pick up there are some spots that will see Southeast winds and higher winds which means higher water especially like downtown St Peak I don't think it'll be terrible but it's certainly going to come up but then to your point The Surge is not as bad but oh the center's coming in down here or down towards Sarasota well we're in Tampa we're fine uhuh you've got the

stronger part of the Storm, at least wind will be coming over the top of you, and it's going to be that stretch right in there, and that'll go, you know, parallel in I4. So, that's Fishhawk, that's Plant City, that's all those areas right out through Lakeland as well, pretty populated out there. And we do have a camera at our station which is keeping an eye on things because we're on the Inland Waters of Tampa Bay, so that's a bit of a good barometer for what's happening in the bay. We get a sense if the water is rising in our parking lot or

Tracking Milton: Latest advisory issued. Here's the forecast (5PM)

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Hurricane Update: Downgraded but Still Major

The hurricane has been downgraded from a category 4 to a category 3, with winds at 125 mph and moving northeast at 17 mph.

Landfall is now expected as early as 9:00 p.

, with Sarasota and Manatee County likely to be the impact zones.

Flood and tornado warnings are in effect, with heavy rain and high wind reports increasing in the region.

A tropical storm is approaching, with wind gusts exceeding 63 mph reported off the coast of Tampa.

The storm is expected to bring devastating surge levels to already affected communities, with high tides coinciding with its landfall.

Local impacts include wind gusts of 75 to 110 mph and 8 to 12 inches of rainfall, leading to flash flooding and potential extension of flood warnings.

The National Weather Service is issuing wind warnings as a hurricane brings 6 to 10 inches of rain, with a surge of 8 to 12 feet.

The storm is currently a high-end Category 3, with wind speeds at 120 mph and moving northeast at 17 mph.

The hurricane's landfall is expected south of Tampa Bay, with the latest track indicating it will pass near Sarasota.

The hurricane is moving quickly, with its center just off the west and strong winds of 138 mph detected.

The highest winds are expected to hit Ruskin, Wama, and Sun City Center, leading to an excessive wind warning.

The northeast wind from the hurricane's movement may help to mitigate storm surge in the bay, but the strong winds are still expected to cause significant damage.

Impact of Increasing Winds on Tree Damage

Winds are increasing from the South and East, weakening trees before shifting to the Northeast, which causes more damage.

The leading edge of the weather system is moving to the Northeast at 17 mph, expected to reach Bradon and Ami by 7:30 PM.

The bulk of the impact is anticipated between 7 PM and 11 PM, with crews in place to ensure safety.

The storm's wind patterns are causing water levels to rise, particularly in areas with southeasterly winds.

While the surge is expected to be less severe for those near the water, downtown St.

Pete may still experience a notable increase in water levels.

The stronger part of the storm is projected to move over areas like Fishhawk, Plant City, and Lakeland, which are more populated.