Tesla's FSD Test: Critical Failures and Robotaxi Concerns

Tesla's full self-driving system currently fails to meet safety standards, undermining its potential as a future robotaxi service.

### Tesla Full Self-Driving (FSD) Test Analysis by Semiconductor Analyst
* 🚦  During a 10-mile test in suburban New York, the Tesla FSD system made an illegal left turn on a red light, leading the analyst to consider it a "**fast fail**" due to the **clear violation**.
* 📊  The analyst, who works at Truist Securities, emphasizes the importance of **FSD to Tesla's stock value**, estimating that about **two-thirds of the stock's value is linked to AI projects like FSD**.
* 🚗  Despite being an FSD user who regularly tests new versions, the analyst remains critical of the system's readiness, stating that it's "**just not obvious today**" that Tesla is on track for a Robotaxi future.
* 🤖  Elon Musk's challenge for investors to try FSD themselves prompted the analyst's tests, which have consistently shown **failures that raise doubts about the system's current capabilities**.
* 📆  The upcoming Tesla Robotaxi Day, now scheduled for October, is seen as a critical event for **demonstrating progress in FSD** and potentially **influencing the stock's value**.
* 🔍  The analyst's perspective highlights the importance of **independent testing and critical evaluation** in assessing the **readiness and potential** of Tesla's FSD technology.

So why was it a fast fail? Well, very early into my test drive, FSD took this car through a red light, making a left turn from the second to left and not turn lane. Illegal move. Didn't feel terribly unsafe, but clearly illegal. If I were driving the car and there were an officer there, I'm pretty confident I would have been stopped. So from my perspective, even though I didn't get the crash and it wasn't even safe for me to really intervene, it was safer for me to let the car make this turn. This was a clearly illegal move from. So from my perspective, this was a fast fail. Let's do this again. Well, the basics of the test. Where were you? Whose test? The vehicle were you using? What was the duration of the test and why did you not film it in full? Yeah. Let me address the last question first. I'm not a video vlogger or whatever.

I'm not a social media personality. Right. I'm an equity research analyst at Truist Securities, writing research for our institutional investor clients. Film or video is not a typical media that I operate in. Regarding the test, it was similar to the two prior ones that I did, and that included using a test vehicle from Tesla with the latest software that they had available at the time. It's in suburban New York, and it was about a ten-mile drive that I asked the car to take me on to a local spot close to where I live and back. And that was the test. And in each case, there were different characterizations of how the car felt and the level of safety. But in each case, there were failures, making it really not okay, let's say appropriate to think about full self-driving in the way that a robotaxi would. Well, a lot of people ask me, Why are you getting this guy on the show?

And you kind of answered that. You are a research analyst who provides research to institutional investors looking at Tesla. But what interested me is you are a semiconductor analyst, and Elon Musk says on the earnings calls with some regularity to understand our future as an AI or autonomous driving company, go and use it for yourself. So you did my question, your thesis on the jump from your test to a robotaxi future of Tesla. Why do you not see it? Well, it's just not obvious today. Right now the company is already generating revenue from FSD. It's one of the three major A.I. projects that we know about going on at Tesla. We believe there's significant value already embedded in these eight projects in the stock. So we think it's important to understand whether this works or not. My assertion is that it doesn't work today. That doesn't mean that Tesla can't generate revenue from it, and it also doesn't mean that they can't get there.

eventually. It's just not ready today. And there is the crux of the issue. How important is it that we see Robotaxi in October? Well, I think the idea that FSD needs to work is critical to the stock. In my opinion, only about a third of the stock's value is wrapped up in the automotive production and energy capture and storage businesses. About two thirds of the value of the stock are wrapped up in these AI projects. So he's got to show something at this Robotaxi day. He's already pushed out that date from August to October. But if we have the supposition that Robotaxi will depend on FSD, that is not ready. So let's see. Well, I'm an FSD user. I got version 12.5 the day it was released. I'm on 12.5.1.3. At the moment, it's not perfect. Today I can be completed the dogleg at Lombard and Van Ness for the first time.

Will you keep testing with this regularity? I'll test when there's, you know, let's say a reason, a major upgrade, or if there's a request by the company. Elon Musk told me to, is the way I like to say it. Right after Q1, he challenged investors to go try it. I did. We wrote about it after Q2. Same thing. The criticisms I got were around, Hey, 12.5 is such a massive upgrade. You're missing the mark. You have to go try this newer one and see the improvements. And I did that, and I would say, you know, improved in some ways, but still a critical failure in my opinion.

Tesla's FSD Was a ‘Fast Fail’ For Us: Truist Analyst

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A Fast Fail: Testing Tesla's Full Self-Driving

The test drive of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature resulted in a fast fail, as the car made an illegal left turn through a red light.

The tester, an equity research analyst, used a Tesla vehicle with the latest software for a ten-mile drive in suburban New York.

Despite different characterizations of the car's performance, all tests resulted in failures, raising concerns about the appropriateness of FSD for robotaxi use.

Tesla's Transition to Robotaxi: A Skeptical Perspective

The analyst, focused on semiconductors, questions Tesla's jump to a robotaxi future despite Elon Musk's emphasis on AI and autonomous driving.

Tesla is already generating revenue from its Full Self-Driving (FSD) project, which is one of three major AI initiatives.

The analyst believes there is significant value embedded in Tesla's projects but asserts that, as of now, the robotaxi model is not working.

The Importance of Robotaxi and FSD for Stock Value

The launch of Robotaxi is crucial for the stock's value, with two-thirds of it tied to AI projects.

The deadline for Robotaxi has been pushed from August to October, but its success depends on the readiness of FSD, which is not perfect yet.

The speaker, an FSD user, has been using the latest version and is experiencing gradual improvements.

The testing will be done regularly, mainly driven by major upgrades or company requests.

Elon Musk's challenge to investors played a significant role in the testing decision.

Despite trying the newer version after criticisms, the improvements were not enough to overcome its critical failures.