Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions and AI Developments

AI will reshape the geopolitical landscape and drive significant investment in defense and technology sectors.

### Market Reactions to Geopolitical Tensions and the Future of AI in Business
* 📉 The market's knee-jerk reaction to breaking news is understandable, especially when **uncertainty arises from global conflicts**, which have **widespread ramifications**.
* 💻 Big tech companies are currently the largest point drags on NASDAQ and S&P benchmarks, not due to their exposure to geopolitical tensions, but because they represent the **biggest companies in the market**.
* 📊 As market outflows occur, investors tend to sell off shares in the "**Magnificent Seven**," which are the largest components of these benchmarks, leading to their **underperformance**.
* 📱 Apple's recent decline is attributed to **concerns over iPhone 16 sales**, while Microsoft is showcasing its advancements in **consumer AI**, raising questions about the **actual adoption of these technologies**.
* 🤖 The integration of AI into everyday life is anticipated to evolve rapidly, with expectations for **significant revenue and ROI within a short timeframe**, as companies aim to **transform their business models**.
* ⚡ The next phase of AI development will likely focus on companies **improving their operating margins** through AI applications, particularly in **data centers** and industries like **healthcare and finance**.
* 🛡 Geopolitical tensions will necessitate **increased spending on defense**, with AI expected to **significantly influence the geopolitical landscape** for countries that adopt it effectively, potentially **reshaping global power dynamics for decades**.

It's difficult to respond to breaking news on the day, but does any of this vindicate a knee-jerk reaction that we see in the markets? For sure. I mean, look, any time there's uncertainty, it's going to hit the market because the ramifications of a war are clearly, you know, global, widespread, and impactful. You know, besides the fact that it's very sad and, you know, the market reaction is not surprising at all. And when you look at what the biggest point drags are on a NASDAQ benchmark, on an S&P benchmark, unsurprisingly, they are big tech, but that's largely because they are the biggest companies out there rather than they have the most exposure to any geopolitical tensions. But does that warrant a desire to pull back on any over-focus on the Magnificent Seven, for example? You know, I think it's clear as the market has outflows and people

try and sell the market that the next seven are the biggest proportion of the benchmarks and the easiest place to take capital from. So it's not surprising that they're underperforming. Does it give us any less conviction in the long term of where these businesses are going? It doesn't and it doesn't really change that thesis told you about where these businesses are going. Today we have Apple on the downside significantly, not just because of the market selling, but because of worries about the sales of its iPhone 16. A lot of that predicated on when it will really intertwine into that offering. On the flip side. Microsoft today showing off its prowess in the area of consumer AI. What is the thesis for these names and how much will actually start using the artificial intelligence they promise? Yeah. So, you know, one thing I'd like to remind everyone is that I burst onto the consumer scene only 22 months ago,

and we are expecting this leaps and bounds. We expecting revenue. And you know, the ROI inside of 22 months is probably the fastest expectation baked into any company for any technological revolution. And so, you know, where I think they're going is I will be integrated with everything that we do. And today we think of it as a co-pilot. I think it's really a co-worker of where we're going to. A personal digital assistant is where the consumer I will go. And then one has to really ask for a company like Apple, you know, can they actually abstract you away from your phone and abstract you away from the app layer and really significantly change the business model as they go into a more personalized digital assistant type world? And what is that worth to Apple? Mm hmm. You know, what is that worth to a consumer? I would argue that it's significantly more than worrying about a near-term product cycle, because, you know, that

software-based product cycle is coming. We have been talking about the impact on stocks on revenue for 22 months, even if the consumer hasn't embraced it as much as perhaps the market wants to talk about it. Where haven't we embraced in terms of the stocks that will rally that we haven't really seen outperform yet? Yeah, I think A.I. is going to go through waves. So initially, we've looked at the picks and shovels, and it has been NVIDIA, the semiconductor companies, and even inside the semis. It hasn't been all semis. There have been a select few, and there's been a big bifurcation. We've seen it in a select number of industrials, those that cater to data centers and the changing data center. Then we saw it in electricity with some of these nuclear plays and the utilities, and then catching on fire. And so, you know, I believe the next phase of this is going to come in the

rest of the data center and also those companies that show that by using AI, they're in fact, improving their operating margins. And that's the next phase. Now, I expect that to come and, you know, 25 to 26, because still deploying this AI is not necessarily, you know, flipping on a switch. It takes some planning eyes, of course, disrupting many a vertical, we think, how it's going to be applied to health care. We think of how it's going to be applied to finance. I go back to our top story of the day and geopolitical tensions. How much will it be applied to defense and is that an area that you've been thinking would be outperforming not only in a political instance, but also from an air backing? Yeah, it absolutely will that the amount of money that will be required to shore up our defenses and that will be spent on defense is going

to be significant. And in part because, you know, just like the industrial revolution in the late 1700s, it changed the geopolitical landscape for England at that point in time. I believe that AI is going to change the geopolitical landscape for whichever countries actually wholeheartedly adopt it and then also become leaders in it. And that can set the chessboard for the next 50 years.

Tech Leads Selloff on Geopolitical Risks

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Bloomberg Technology

Market Reaction to Breaking News and Tech Giants

Uncertainty from breaking news, particularly related to global conflicts, has a significant impact on the stock market, with big tech companies experiencing the largest declines.

The underperformance of these tech giants, like Apple and Microsoft, is due to their size and proportion in market benchmarks, rather than direct exposure to geopolitical tensions.

Despite the market's reaction, the long-term conviction in the growth of these businesses remains unchanged.

The company expects rapid revenue growth and a quick return on investment within 22 months, driven by the technological revolution of AI.

The vision for AI's role is evolving from a co-pilot to a personal digital assistant, potentially changing business models for companies like Apple.

The impact of AI is expected to come in waves, with initial benefits seen in select semiconductor companies and industries catering to data centers, followed by a broader phase of growth.

The Impact of AI on Operating Margins and Defense

AI is expected to improve operating margins for companies, with significant deployment planned for 2025-2026.

The technology is poised to disrupt various verticals, including healthcare and finance.

Geopolitical tensions are driving increased investment in defense, with a focus on shoring up defenses and outperforming politically.

AI is expected to significantly change the geopolitical landscape, similar to the industrial revolution.

Countries that wholeheartedly adopt and lead in AI development are likely to have a major influence on global dynamics.

This shift could set the stage for the next 50 years.