Semiconductor Sector: Market Trends and Future Expectations

The recent market movements indicate a significant drop in Vitek DB Tech, influenced by China's semiconductor investment.

### Stock Market Analysis and Outlook: Semiconductor Sector, Samsung Electronics, and Market Trends
* 📉  Vitek DB Tech experienced a **significant decline** in the previous session, and the current situation in the semiconductor sector is not favorable. Due to China's heavy investments, the price of semiconductors has **plummeted from 80,000 won to 40,000 won**.
* 🕯️  It is crucial to observe the technical aspects of the market, especially **large-volume selling** and **candlestick patterns at key levels**.
* 🚗  There are rumors that DB-Tex is subcontracting Tesla's semiconductor production, and if confirmed, it could lead to **sustained positive trends**.
* 🌐  The credit balance of both the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets **exceeded 200 trillion won**, with the KOSPI credit balance hitting a **52-week high**.
* 🔋  LG Electronics is expected to gain momentum again due to the recent heatwave, which could benefit **stocks related to weather conditions**.
* 📈  SK Hynix has historically seen its stock price rise for at least **four consecutive quarters** after hitting the **bottom in performance**.
* 📅  Key upcoming events include **Micron's earnings announcement on June 27** and **Samsung Electronics' earnings announcement in early July**, which could **set the tone for the third quarter**.
* 💰  Profit-taking on stocks that have risen sharply and sector rotation, such as in the cosmetics and food sectors, could lead to **short-term volatility**.
* 🛠️  In the case of large-cap stocks like Limited Technology, it is generally safe to **hold them**, and it is important to observe the **short-term moving averages** for potential support and resistance levels.

Then, one of the distinctive features of yesterday's movement was that Vitek DB Tech was significantly down. If we talk about the current situation here, it's not good. Not only are things not good in this area, but also China has been pouring a lot of money into the semiconductor sector, causing the price to drop drastically from 80,000 won to 40,000 won. Last year, in the first half of the year, in April, it was at 80,000 won, and until recently, it was at 40,000 won, so it has dropped by about 50% from its peak. Recently, it seems to be stabilizing a bit after the decline, but technically, as I always emphasize, when a large volume of selling appears at the bottom and a candlestick pattern emerges, it is crucial to see if it can recover from that point. I have always mentioned this. On Monday of this week, the candlestick pattern was.

I immediately recovered, and since then, if you look at the trading volume now, you can see candles that are quite large, appearing one by one recently. For three consecutive days, there have been period purchases. Yesterday, both periods and foreigners were buying. Probably, news like this may have started to influence the market a bit earlier, knowingly or unknowingly. It seems like DB-Tex is subcontracting Tesla's semiconductor production. Anyway, DB-Tex is a foundry. A foundry is a company that, when someone brings the design drawings, produces them on their behalf. DB-Tex is pushing for the subcontract production of Tesla's semiconductors, but this push is not over yet, the results are not out yet. They are conducting an investigation.

As a standalone news, it came out after the market closed yesterday. Well, how much can we trust it? Several newspapers are also quoting and reporting on the follow-up after that. If this turns out to be true, as I mentioned a little while ago, there are technical points like breaking through the resistance and not coming down again, becoming such trends. It is likely to be sustained for the time being. So, if that's correct, but if it's nothing special and just ends as a rumor, then we may see the pattern of going down again. Therefore, by looking at these technical points, even though we are not insiders of the company, Tesla, conducting due diligence, it seems that we don't know Tesla's insider information. So, you should check while considering these technical points. So, in yesterday's session, there was DB Holding Company, DB Hi-Tech.

Yesterday, the rain was like a circuit breaker, and DB HiTek showed a 6% strength due to the summer showing up, so you might want to check just a bit for any expectations of movement today. Also, there is something to know now. Yesterday, the credit balance of the two KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets finally exceeded 200 trillion won. Especially, if you find a stock, it would be great. That's right, the black one is the credit balance of KOSPI, breaking the previous high, so it's hitting a 52-week high. In fact, it's a really good stock, but it's a credit bubble. So, the current index is fine, but if the U.S. corrects, we can withstand it because we didn't rise. However, if the U.S. corrects due to fatigue, how would the parts that received credit be affected in the market? When the credit balance of KOSDAQ is at a slightly low point.

It's increasing, so we know that the credit spreads have exceeded 20 trillion won. So, we are aware of the level. If we look at why there has been some volatility in the recent cosmetics and food sectors reaching high levels, it seems that the leading sectors recently, when I looked at the credit spreads, are rising like this. The credit spread of the cosmetics sector sharply rose from mid-April and the food sector has been rising since early May. Consequently, for those who are a bit late in organizing these leading sectors, if there is a slight shake at the peak, for those who bought not with money but with leverage, it becomes a bit ambiguous. They might cut it once and quickly throw it away. There are such aspects. Therefore, in the cosmetics and food and beverage sectors, credit spreads have been rising recently.

You should be aware that the parts that have risen can create some volatility to a certain extent due to sector rotation. Nevertheless, amidst that, there seems to be a growing interest in weather-related matters these days. In terms of graphs, in the past year, it is said that it has been the hottest year since 1940. For example, we are currently recording temperatures of 35 degrees Celsius. Seoul is also experiencing temperatures of 35 to 36 degrees Celsius. It is quite hot and can be a bit irritating. Therefore, recently, due to the heat, LG Electronics, which once raised its market value with its air conditioning system, seems to be in a position where it could gain momentum again. Last night, or was it the night before, I showed an article saying that if the parts related to the outdoor unit come out, the stock price is dropping again. So, LG Electronics seems to be in a position where it could gain momentum once again.

The rapid movements yesterday were quite distinctive. I took a look at Bloomberg's content, and the U.S. is now raising rates again. It seems that due to the heatwave, power companies are declaring an emergency situation. Taiwan also seems to be facing a similar situation. Yes, and in India too, due to the weather, power emergencies are being declared in various parts of the world. I think there will be many articles this summer about these issues. Last year, the same happened in the U.S., and we seem to be a bit slow as well. Stories like these are emerging a lot, so I think summer-related themes will continue for a while. You should take a look at the fact that next, yesterday, Samsung Electronics, after a long time, exceeded 80,000, but unfortunately, it fell back a bit. Also, SK Hynix closed with an uptail yesterday, indicating a reversal.

It's a bit disappointing, but still, since Hynix has risen almost 60% since the beginning of the year, it's okay to take it easy. In fact, that's right. Instead, it would be great if Samsung Electronics picked up the pace while we take a break. So, nowadays, some people seem to be thinking about selling off stocks that have been rising. If I briefly update on that topic, looking at the quarterly operating profit of SK Hynix for the past 10 years, which is represented by the vertical bar graph, and the PBR represented by the red line graph, when I plotted it for more than 10 years, the trend shows that when the performance hits rock bottom, the stock price tends to rise for at least four consecutive quarters. When we look back at the cycles that occurred in the past, when the performance hit the bottom last year, and now, we can see that it has been four quarters.

Pictures showing PBR rising consecutively are appearing, so there might be some parts that can be further extended. However, looking at past cases, it could be considered that it may last about 1 year and 6 months, with as short as four quarters and as long as six quarters. Samsung Electronics is the same. After hitting the bottom in performance, the stock price rose for about four to six quarters. But this time, after hitting the bottom, Samsung Electronics is showing some improvement for four consecutive quarters. When looking at the valuation, it is still not as burdensome compared to Hynix. This is because HBM has not been passed yet, so there is still some aspect like that. Lastly, if you take a look at the timeline, I think there might be more continuation in movement. Of course, because it has risen in the short term, there is a possibility of changes in supply and demand.

If you take a little break, a bit of rest in between can be expected. What events are waiting for us? In the last week of June, next week, Micron's earnings announcement will be in Korea on the 27th. Also, in early July, Samsung Electronics will announce their earnings. At the end of July, there will be calls for Samsung and Hynix. I expect there will be discussions about how much the legacy semiconductor business is declining. If these discussions come up, I believe that focusing on the legacy will create expectations for improved performance in the second half of the year, creating a favorable timeline for the third quarter overall. So, there is still some anticipation, especially for Samsung Electronics. Therefore, if Samsung Electronics stabilizes, a positive trend will continue in July and August, leading to developments in the third quarter.

Let's wait a moment and summarize. It seems like it would be good to go a bit longer this time. Oh, it would be nice if it went well. Yes, it would be nice. Shareholders will be excited. Compared to Hynix, yes. However, the process of filling that gap may take about a quarter, so when the index flows towards the upper range, there may be cases of profit-taking and program trading automatically coming in, causing the stock price to rise. Next, there are also events related to the secondary battery sector, such as inter-battery. Therefore, yesterday, EcoPro BM showed signs of a rebound, and Energy [music] Solutions seemed to show some upward movements as well. First of all, some stocks may encounter technical resistance, and then the timing to determine the direction will probably be around August 8th, or before that, with the Kia sales of the E-series.

It seems that decisions can be made based on demand for events. Then, the 46 series is crucial for processing. In the case of Kia EV series, LG Energy Solution, POSCO Future M, and then Daewoo Electronics materials are responsible. If the events like Coupang go well, there might be some rebound according to that. If Daewoo Electronics materials take action here, the stock price direction seems to be determined upwards and flow in that direction. It's not like completely ignoring the material sector, but we still need to assess the situation a bit. It can be said that the stock price has come out to some extent at the bottom. However, the second quarter earnings season is coming. At that time, stocks can react to earnings. So, we are preparing for the second quarter earnings season, focusing on IT first, looking into areas like IT law, semiconductors, and then related to hybrid bonding.

The spotlight continues in the market. The trends we mentioned at that time, such as Park Systems and HPSP, started to rise yesterday. As for EO Technics, as mentioned, there are some market rumors, but the possibility seems quite low. Therefore, the stock price should rebound today. We will see how the rebound goes today. Next, regarding the possibility of SK Innovation's merger, it was first reported, and then as the process progresses, the listing of SK is being considered, but it was mentioned that there is no confirmed decision regarding dealing with Innovation. Today, the stock price may start strong, so we will open it that way. When the cafe report was covered, it was estimated to be around 13 trillion won. First, in terms of business...

The estimated performance is progressing in the direction we anticipated, not exceeding the 200 billion we saw. I expect a gap-up start. I will also keep an eye on the market capitalization of 1 trillion. I hope for good results in the stock as we have worked hard. The POSCO internship is not over yet. This is not the end. This is a trend. Now, short-term trends are introduced. The trend is an upward flow, but it may become a bit heavy. If the POSCO internship progresses clearly in terms of advertising, there may be some response. However, it's not a complete give-up. I would like to emphasize that. With this connection, the platform sector is gaining attention, and even companies like Sup are showing some upward movement. Although Sup trading is a bit sluggish, I will raise the short-term resistance level for now. Let's look at the nuclear power plant sector.

I think there are quite a few people who own it. Shall we take a look at a situation like a limited technology? In the case of limited technology, even at today's low price basis, even if you try to buy at a low price, you may think a little more and look down. If we say looking down, it's in the late 68,000 won range. Because there are materials that support the main line of support and resistance, even if it breaks, it can recover quickly. So, when the price is low today, in this situation, I would like to point out that it is okay to hold onto limited technology among large-cap stocks. As for the shipbuilding industry, today's overseas reports have focused more on Hyundai Group. Also, I think we are looking a bit towards the lower form side rather than selling off in the case of Hanwha Systems. Probably, in comparison to profits, it seems like they have focused more on market capitalization and intensity of orders. In my opinion, yes, that's right. There seems to be a concentration of supply at the moment.

So, I think it's right to take it with me, but because this is a stock with a supply concentration, in terms of supply, strong supply comes out. If trading volume exceeds, let's say, 5 million shares and there is a backlog, at that time, it is necessary to sell a bit, like a large company that does that. For example, such a response is needed. Shall we look at Samsung Heavy Industries together? Samsung Heavy Industries had an issue at that time, not a major one, but currently, we are positioned below the key support and resistance line. That part was pushed back due to an event, so in the market, rather than immediately pulling it up, a trend of waiting a bit is being staged to wait for the price trend. However, a trend to align is expected to emerge, so you don't need to have big concerns. I can say that. Let's move on a bit from this innovation, from this situation, this pattern.

If you remember this well, it will be helpful. Usually, people analyze the strength by rising and pushing out the gap or by dividing it into minutes. First of all, they create a trend. In the case of today, how the mid-term trend appears is meaningful in trading, especially among large-cap stocks. We can confirm that today's demand is a bit concentrated. In the case of Kia, there are no special issues, just that if you look at today, if the stock price has risen a bit in a certain industry, it might move away from there and go into another direction. Kia is worth waiting for the E series announcement. Since there is nothing wrong with sales, when a technical form of reversal appears at the top of the band, such adjustments can occur. It's a natural correction. When looking at the chart, let's zoom in.

I think we should consider the trend part. Whether the support line is breaking or not breaking, if it breaks, it means there is a variable at first, or in terms of supply and demand, when sellers start to sell a bit and leave, but there is no such form at all yet. Next, looking at the important lines on a weekly basis, the part related to continuing the upward trend is being strengthened like this. I think there are people holding Rega Bio, as they are soon hosting a conference. It seems like there will be an opportunity to sell enough through the stocks. Therefore, for those who hold it, they may consider opening up the possibility of adjusting their positions a bit in line with the timing. In the case of Alteogen, there has been a slight decrease in supply recently. It's just a natural adjustment, and such a situation is appearing, and since there is no large volume trading by traders themselves.

Just such adjustments can naturally lead to band counseling rights. However, what we need to consider is not whether this falls or rises based on Japanese standards, but rather, it is more important to determine whether it is supported by some kind of support and rises. This is because the candle of the stock price is located below the short-term moving average, and a rise involving trading for more than the recent 5 trading days or 10 trading days is likely to encounter resistance until it stabilizes. Therefore, at the moment, decisions like additional purchases are more of a wait-and-see approach. The situation may change in the market, but for now, it is primarily a wait-and-see approach.

반토막 난 DB하이텍, 테슬라 이슈 업고 주가 회복할까? / 2차전지, 그리고 합병 이슈 나온 SK이노베이션의 대응은? | 민재기, 이성웅

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Impact of China's Investment on Semiconductor Sector

Vitek DB Tech has seen a drastic 50% drop in price due to China's significant investment in the semiconductor sector, which has raised concerns about the company's recovery.

The market is being influenced by news of DB-Tex's potential subcontracting of Tesla's semiconductor production, with the outcome of this investigation likely to impact the company's future trends.

The credit balance of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets has exceeded 200 trillion won, signaling a potential credit bubble that could be affected if the U.

The credit spreads in the cosmetics and food sectors have been sharply increasing since mid-April and early May, causing potential volatility for investors using leverage.

The summer heatwave, with record-breaking temperatures, is driving a growing demand for air conditioning systems, potentially benefiting companies like LG Electronics.

Global power companies are declaring emergencies due to the extreme weather, while the stock prices of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix show notable fluctuations.

Potential Stock Trends for Hynix and Samsung Electronics

SK Hynix has shown a historical trend of stock price rising for four to six consecutive quarters after hitting a performance bottom, with the potential for further extension based on past cycles.

Samsung Electronics is also showing improvement for four consecutive quarters after a performance bottom, with a less burdensome valuation compared to Hynix.

The upcoming earnings announcements for Micron, Samsung Electronics, and Hynix, as well as discussions on the legacy semiconductor business, are anticipated to create a favorable timeline for the third quarter, especially for Samsung Electronics.

The stock market is expected to experience profit-taking and program trading, possibly leading to a rise in stock prices.

Events related to the secondary battery sector, such as Inter-Battery, are influencing the movement of stocks like EcoPro BM and Energy Solutions.

The upcoming Kia sales of the E-series and the 46 series are crucial factors that will determine stock price direction, along with the performance of companies like LG Energy Solution, POSCO Future M, and Daewoo Electronics.

Anticipated Progress and Trends in Various Sectors

The performance is on track, not exceeding 200 billion, with expectations of a gap-up start.

There is a focus on the market capitalization of 1 trillion, and the POSCO internship is still ongoing.

Short-term trends show an upward flow, with attention on the platform sector and companies like Sup.

In the case of limited technology in the nuclear power plant sector, it is suggested to hold on to large-cap stocks.

The focus in the shipbuilding industry is on Hyundai Group and Hanwha Systems, with a concentration of supply at the moment.

Samsung Heavy Industries is currently positioned below the key support and resistance line, with a trend of waiting for the price trend before an expected alignment.

Analyzing Stock Trends and Potential Adjustments

Traders are currently focused on analyzing the mid-term trend and concentration of demand, particularly for large-cap stocks like Kia.

The upcoming E series announcement for Kia and an upcoming conference for Rega Bio are influencing stock holding and potential selling opportunities.

Alteogen is experiencing a slight decrease in supply, leading to natural adjustments, but it's important to assess whether there is a strong support for any potential rise in stock prices.

The current recommendation is to take a wait-and-see approach, especially regarding any additional purchases, as the market situation is subject to change.