this video is brought to you by Brilliant. It's been more than 4 months since South Africa formed a pretty unprecedented National Unity Government after the long-dominant ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years. Despite the ideological mix of parties in the Coalition raising some doubts about its potential effectiveness, after more than 100 days in office, there have been quite a few positive assessments of how the government's doing. So, in this video, we're going to have a look at what's been going well, where there's been friction, and whether the government is actually succeeding. Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos. So, let's quickly start with some context as to how and why South Africa's coalition government came about. The election at the end of May saw the ruling African National Congress (ANC) lose its majority for the first time in three decades since the end of apartheid.

apartheid regime, high levels of unemployment, corruption and crime, persistent inequality, power cuts and water shortages all contributed to the ANC's fall from grace. Added to this was the simple fact that as time has passed since the ANC led the fight against white minority rule, younger South Africans just don't have the same loyalty to the party as older generations do. The rise of the new MK party led by former president Jacob Zuma after he split from the ANC also shifted the political landscape against the ANC. The ANC, which remained the largest party despite losing its majority, was therefore forced to go in search of partners to bring into government. It took a few weeks, but the ANC eventually struck an agreement with the main opposition party, the market-friendly center-right Democratic Alliance or DA, which was unprecedented given that the ANC and DA have been rivals for decades. They agreed, along with other smaller parties, to form a so-called government of national unity or GNU, which eventually grew to feature a total of 10 wide-ranging parties. Although the

gnu is dominated by the ANC and DA, which together make up 85% of its parliamentary seats. The slightly eclectic mix of parties raised some doubts as to the potential effectiveness of the gnu. However, by several metrics, it's actually doing perhaps surprisingly well. The most obvious place to start is by looking at what South Africans think of the government's performance. According to polling conducted in September, 58% of South Africans think the gnu is doing quite well or very well, nearly three times more than the 21% who think it's doing quite or very poorly. The same polling shows both the ANC and DA polling higher than they scored in the May election, while the two main opposition parties, MK and the EFF, are down. South Africans are largely optimistic about the gnu's chances too, with 59% believing it will succeed and 30% thinking it will fail. There have been some positive economic indicators for the government too, with business and investor sentiment clearly boosted following the transition to a more

inclusive government since the GNU was announced. The Rand has strengthened 6% against the dollar, and the stock market has risen nearly 20% in dollar terms. The International Monetary Fund also upgraded its 2024 and 2025 economic growth forecasts for South Africa this month, having twice slashed its forecasts earlier in the year before the election. On top of this, inflation fell below 4% this month, paving the way for another interest rate cut. Earlier this month also marked 200 days without load shedding, i.e., more than 200 days of constant electricity supply by state power utility Eskom, a milestone for a country that has struggled with rolling blackouts for years as part of an energy crisis. Although this ongoing period of uninterrupted power supply did begin before the election, there have been some government departmental successes too. For example, Home Affairs Minister Le Tiber has overseen the full clearing of the identity card backlog and a sizable reduction in the massive backlog of visa applications too. This is not to say that

it's all been smooth sailing for the GNU. There have, in fact, been several points of friction between the DA and the ANC. The two parties have clashed over an education bill giving greater power to the government rather than schools over schools' language and admission policies. The DA opposes this part of the legislation, saying it threatens the right to mother-tongue education, with the strongest public opposition coming from the African-speaking community. DA leader John Steenhuisen said the law would endanger the future of the unity government, but President Cyril Ramaphosa delayed the implementation of the language and admissions clauses in the hope of reaching a consensus. The parties have also clashed over the national health insurance bill, and there have been tensions between the GNU parties at the subnational level too, for example, in Gauteng Province, where a DA mayor was ousted by an ANC no-confidence motion. Nevertheless, no one expected the GNU to agree on everything. Policy disagreements were always going to be a feature of such a broad coalition. In fact, back in August, the DA's leader said that he was

actually quite surprised by how well it's going and that he thought there'd be a lot more pitfalls. But if we're going to actually assess the gnu's performance so far, it's important to make clear that in terms of policy direction, not a huge amount has happened. In fact, the investor confidence and some of the positive economic indicators we mentioned earlier have arguably been largely sentiment-driven or, in simpler terms, are pretty vibes-based. In fact, The Economist even chose the headline South Africa's coalition government has improved the vibes. Markets unsurprisingly responded positively to the creation of a more inclusive government featuring the market-friendly DA. This positive sentiment can be maintained through the first 100 days but can't go on forever without real change and improvements being made. In fact, some have suggested that South Africa runs the risk of repeating 2018's Ramaphoria. The fairly short-lived early investor optimism brought about by Cyril Ramaphosa's taking control of the ANC and the presidency from scandal-tainted Jacob.

Zuma, a phenomenon which did not last for the gnu, to really be judged as a success, it needs to generate more than just positive investor sentiment. It needs to achieve tangible improvements in unemployment, inequality, and poverty, and make much-needed structural reforms. These are significant challenges. For example, the latest unemployment data from Q2 this year showed the unemployment rate climbing for a third consecutive quarter to 33.5%, with more than 8 million people out of work. As the Director of the Social Research Foundation said, There's no question that the gnu is good for the middle class. What we're not seeing yet is the needs of the poor people on the fringes and in the urban periphery met. There is a danger that it can easily collapse into becoming a middle-class feel-good project. For now, many are awaiting the government's budget set to be delivered at the end of October to see whether and how policies and priorities have really shifted. Now, what's something that the TLDR audience have in common? They're willing to learn.

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Why South Africa’s Coalition Is Doing Surprisingly Well

Why South Africa’s Coalition Is Doing Surprisingly Well