U.S. Economic Slowdown Signals Impact on Stock Market Trends

The U.S. economy shows signs of slowdown as sausage sales rise, indicating consumers are opting for cheaper food options.

### Economic Update: Stock Market Trends, Self-Employment Challenges, and Emerging Technologies
* 📉 The U.S. stock market closed with mixed results, showing signs of a **slowdown** as profit-taking becomes evident following a **steady rise** last week.
* 💼 A survey by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicates an economic downturn, with an unexpected rise in sausage sales suggesting consumers are opting for **cheaper protein sources**.
* 📉 Morgan Stanley warns that global tech stocks may enter a downturn next year, particularly impacting semiconductor investments, with NVIDIA expected to see a **slowdown in growth**.
* 📊 BNK Investment & Securities has lowered SK Hynix's target price from **250,000 won to 230,000 won**, reflecting concerns about **future demand for HBM from NVIDIA**.
* 📉 In South Korea, self-employed individuals are facing significant challenges, with loans in arrears surpassing **15 trillion won** and a **7% decrease in sales** for food-related businesses.
* 🎶 The upcoming release of GPT-2 has generated buzz, with expectations for a **new song titled "Starry Night"** set to drop soon, potentially **impacting related stocks**.
* 🎥 The rise of **Deepfake technology** has led to significant stock movements, though concerns about its misuse highlight the need for **responsible use of AI**.
* 🔋 LG Energy Solution is leading the development of **semi-solid batteries**, expected to be **commercialized around 2026-2027**, amidst discussions about the future of **solid-state battery technology**.

Hello, everyone. The stock market is indeed unpredictable. Today, let's quickly look at the economic news and study together. Let's get started. The U.S. stock market closed with mixed results. The New York stock market showed a steady rise until last week, but now it seems to be taking a breather, which is a bit surprising. With interest rates now effectively confirmed, we are seeing movements to realize profits. Additionally, tomorrow, NVIDIA will announce its earnings, and on Friday, there will be announcements regarding PCs, which seems to be creating some tension over the possibility of unexpected news. Looking at the Nasdaq chart, it has been rising but now appears to be running out of steam, showing signs of a plateau. As a result, our market is also forming a similar chart.

There are indeed signs of an economic slowdown in the United States, although the height of the indicators may vary. Interestingly, it seems that the increase in sausage sales can reveal this information. Let's take a closer look. 

The discussion about the economic slowdown in the U.S. has emerged from a survey conducted by the Dallas Federal Reserve regarding the manufacturing outlook in Texas. They reported capturing signals of an economic downturn. So, what does this mean? It turns out that the sales of processed sausages are increasing. One might wonder how an increase in sausage sales is relevant. The explanation is that as people's purchasing power diminishes, they tend to buy cheaper options like sausages rather than more expensive protein sources like meat. 

In fact, the sausage sector tends to grow during periods of economic weakness. Consequently, food companies have already caught on to the signs of an impending economic slowdown or recession.

It is said that they are showing signs of preparing for this in advance. This is also somewhat bad news. Let's take a look. Morgan Stanley has warned that global tech stocks will enter a downturn cycle next year. Although there was rapid growth due to AI, it seems that the growth rate will now decrease. Ultimately, they say there is no train that runs forever. The AI semiconductor, which was the first to take off, will start to slow down. During such times, it is advisable to avoid making strong investments in semiconductors and to choose high-quality companies with solid cash flows. This is, of course, a reasonable statement. There is no train that runs indefinitely; everything has its rise and fall. Just as Tesla did in the past, and Kakao, and EcoPro, this time it can be said that Nvidia is in the same situation. In the end, it will be a bit disappointing later on.

It is a foregone conclusion that such discussions will lead to changes in companies. Next, a report has been released that lowers the target price for SK Hynix. Of course, this is just one perspective, so please do not feel that you must sell immediately just because of it. You can simply consider it as one viewpoint. BNK Investment & Securities has adjusted the target price for SK Hynix from 250,000 won to 230,000 won. While this is still a considerably high price compared to now, one could say that it would be nice if it reached this level. However, the lowering of the target price indicates a shift in perspective, which is often interpreted as bad news. So, what is the reason for the decline? There is a viewpoint suggesting that next year, the demand for HBM from NVIDIA may decrease compared to previous levels. The reason for this is...

The next-generation accelerator has been cited for the quality of Blackwell. Nevertheless, SK Hynix is still considered a good company. It is said that Hynix's position within NVIDIA's HBM supply chain will remain strong. Although Samsung Electronics will eventually receive NVIDIA's quality certification, due to performance issues, Blackwell will not be supplied, and it seems that Nix will continue to dominate that space for the time being. However, if HBM demand decreases, we may need to adjust our expectations accordingly. Additionally, it is quite disappointing that Nix's stock price has been declining steadily. If NVIDIA's performance is expected to be strong, it would be normal for Hynix to either hold steady or gradually increase its stock price. Nevertheless,

Hynix has been holding up well lately, but seeing Hynix drop like this makes me realize that there are definitely people who view NVIDIA's earnings negatively. Next, let's take a look at the news regarding self-employed individuals in our country. The situation for self-employed workers in South Korea is very serious. As I speak about this, I feel like I'm sharing bad news, but once we get through this, there will be plenty of good stories, so I'll move on quickly. The total amount of loans in arrears has surpassed 15 trillion won, and the sales in cafes, bars, and other food-related businesses have plummeted. In fact, looking at the first quarter's sales per business, it was 43 million won, which is a 7% decrease compared to a year ago. Operating profit was 9.15 million won, down 23%. Given that even the annual growth is insufficient and we are seeing a regression, it's clear that self-employed individuals are facing significant difficulties.

You might feel it these days; there are vacant commercial spaces everywhere you go. Seoil is in Daegu, and even in Dongseongro, Daegu, there are many places where people say, Wow, how can there be so many vacancies here? The number of vacant stores has significantly decreased, so the remaining businesses need to do well. However, if sales continue to be poor, the number of vacant commercial spaces will increase again, raising questions about whether our country's economy can withstand this situation.

Next, it is said that GPT-2 will be released. There has been much buzz about PTT, and after a period of reorganization, the mini version is finally set to be unveiled. The song Starry Night will be released at 1 PM on the 30th, and there are expectations about whether it can create another global sensation. As a result, related stocks have started to show some reactions.

Now, what's important moving forward is the song. I really hope a good song comes out. That's all for today. Today, Deepfake is really making waves. In our discussion today, the stocks related to Deepfake have risen significantly. This is because news about Deepfake spread since yesterday afternoon. 

So, what is Deepfake? It's a term that combines deep learning and fake, referring to videos that use artificial intelligence technology to synthesize the faces of specific individuals. I believe many of you have probably seen this on social media, like videos of Elon Musk or Trump or Kim Jong-un doing things they would never do. Those kinds of videos are what we refer to as Deepfakes.

However, the important thing is that this technology should be used for good, not for creating harmful content like fake sexual videos, which end up victimizing people. What problems are arising from this?

I saw that someone made a video using their acquaintances and then spread it on Telegram. It has been confirmed that students, teachers, and soldiers have already been victims, and the number of affected schools is over ten. As a result, the shock that has reached the market was significant, and today, related stocks showed a rally, hitting their upper limits. From the early hours of the market today, stocks like Hanbit Soft, C.U., Box, and Sands Lab reached their upper limits. Even though there were strong performances from these stocks, I thought that many sectors might be moving, suggesting that related stocks could continue to fluctuate for a while. On the left, Hanbit Soft reached its upper limit, and similarly, Box and Sands Lab also hit their upper limits. Next, Husteel showed an increase during the trading session. What was the reason for that?

I noticed that Hyusteel invested 1.2 billion in a Saudi pipe company in 2009, but now it seems that this investment is only worth 200 million. Currently, Hyusteel's market capitalization is 230 billion, which has led people to say, What is this? The real value of Hyusteel is only 30 billion, prompting strong buying interest. However, in the end, the stock slid downwards, which is a bit disappointing. For reference, Hyusteel is a company that manufactures structural steel pipes used in plumbing and structures such as Tomo buildings. Although its performance has cyclical fluctuations, it is still showing a profit and offering dividends of over 5%. Next, Samsung Biologics has finally surpassed 1 million won after three years, reclaiming its throne. Although the term bio may be getting tiresome, I still mention it.

There seems to be no choice but to acknowledge that this year, for the first time, sales have surpassed 4 trillion won. As a result, Samsung Biologics has slightly slipped and couldn't maintain the 1 million won mark, but securities firms are continuously sending love calls with a target price of 1.2 million won. Amidst this, Alteogen has also shown an increase today, securing the top position in the KOSDAQ market capitalization. Next, let's take a look at the 52-week high. The news is all about biotechnology. Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about biotechnology, which is evidence of its growing popularity. The first company is Boronov, known for developing targeted therapy new drug candidates, particularly in treatments related to non-small cell lung cancer. The company has now signed a research option agreement with the American biotech company Anvia for a treatment for autoimmune diseases.

The news has emerged that it has achieved a 52-week high. Now, studying biotech is really difficult. Honestly, even if you study, you often don't understand what it means. The most important thing is that no matter how much we study, we cannot know whether it will succeed or not. It's like a lottery with odds, and because of that, the dreams and hopes are quite large. So, when it goes up, it shows a clear upward trend. By the way, Boronoi's performance has been in a continuous deficit.

Next, the second company that reached a 52-week high is Binex, which is related to CM. This company is referred to as a beneficiary of the U.S. Biodefense Act. As you can see from the chart, it has been rising daily, and since it is also related to CDMO, its performance is not bad. However, it has shown a deficit over the past year, leading to thoughts that it may continue to be in the red. According to securities firms' forecasts,

This year, the outrage is reportedly still present in the black market. However, personally, I have thought that after the passage of the Biosecurity Act, a flow of campaigning might emerge. That part is something we need to check a bit. Next, on September 9th, the iPhone 16 will finally be unveiled. It is said to be announced on the 9th of next month, and we will finally be able to see the iPhone equipped with Apple AI. It is reported that the new iPhone operating system, iOS 18, will also be revealed along with the iPhone and Apple Watch. Every time I hear this news, I wonder if I should invest in iPhone-related stocks. However, considering that Buffett sold his Apple shares, I question whether the iPhone will boast impressive sales figures. Will this iPhone bring any innovation? Moving on, yesterday, there was a noticeable rise in yoga. The reason for this is related to Libya.

The eastern government has announced that it will close all oil fields and halt production and exports. Following this news, WTI rose by 3.5%, and Brent crude also increased by 3.05%. It seems puzzling why they would stop when they could be making money. Upon investigation, it turns out that Libya is divided between an eastern government that controls the oil regions and a unified government that controls the capital. Currently, conflicts have arisen due to the position of the governor of the Central Bank of Libya, and as a result of the noise coming from there, such decisions have been made. This can be viewed as an internal issue. Additionally, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah seem to be ongoing, which has contributed to the slight rise in oil prices. However, in our country today, oil-related stocks initially rose in the early trading session but then showed a downward trend. That's all.

Canada has announced the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods, specifically a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 2% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. This indicates that Canada is aligning itself with the United States and Europe. The new tariffs will take effect on October 1. It is worth noting that this announcement came after a meeting between the U.S. Secretary of Commerce and the Canadian Prime Minister. As of now, China has not released any official statement, but it is expected that they may retaliate by reducing pork imports. 

Suddenly, it seems that Tesla is in a difficult position. Why is that? Because the only Chinese electric vehicles imported into Canada are from Tesla. Therefore, it can be said that this news is obviously unfavorable for Tesla. However, it appears that Tesla may be able to avoid tariffs by adjusting its supply chain to include vehicles produced in the United States and Germany.

Today, there was some bad news for Hyundai Motor Company right from the start. The U.S. government announced that it would re-evaluate the environmental permits for Hyundai's Georgia electric vehicle factory. Environmental activists raised concerns that the regulatory authorities had not properly assessed the impact of the Hyundai factory on the local water supply, which prompted this re-evaluation. As for when that factory will actually start operations, it's set for October of this year. So, it’s essentially a factory that has been completed, and it might be surprising that this is only happening now. Fortunately, local officials have stated that even with the re-evaluation, there shouldn't be significant delays in the schedule. 

In the last piece of news, could solid-state batteries be an alternative? There is a re-evaluation underway regarding solid-state batteries for electric vehicles. However, the path to solid-state technology is still very long, and in fact,

It can be quite expensive; it may be up to 100 times more expensive than existing batteries. With such projections emerging, it is indeed a challenging situation for immediate commercialization. This brings us to the intermediate stage of semi-solid batteries. So, what is a semi-solid battery? It is said to be a battery that contains a solid electrolyte, positioned between lithium-ion batteries and solid-state batteries. It has lower risks compared to lithium and offers better performance, with a more reasonable price expected than solid-state batteries.

Who is leading the way? It’s LG Energy Solution. The commercialization of LG Energy Solution's semi-solid battery is expected around 2026 or 2027. We need to pay attention to whether the discussion around semi-solid batteries will start to resurface in the future. That concludes today's study. Thank you for studying together. This has been Gilly Baio.

"충격적인? 경기침체 신호가 떴습니다"

주식초보 / 주린이에게 적합한 주식공부 채널입니다.
저는 알려주는게 아니라 같이 공부하는 입장입니다.
평생 같이 공부하시죠


기릿의 주식노트 Let's Get It

Unpredictable Stock Market and Economic Slowdown

stock market closed mixed, with the New York market taking a breather after a steady rise.

NVIDIA's upcoming earnings announcement and PC news are creating tension in the market.

The increase in sausage sales is signaling an economic downturn, as people opt for cheaper protein sources during tough times, leading food companies to prepare for a potential recession.

Changes in SK Hynix's Target Price and Self-Employed Workers' Struggles

BNK Investment & Securities has lowered SK Hynix's target price from 250,000 won to 230,000 won, indicating a shift in perspective and potential decline in HBM demand from NVIDIA next year.

Despite the target price adjustment, Hynix is still considered a strong player in NVIDIA's HBM supply chain.

Meanwhile, self-employed workers in South Korea are facing serious challenges, with loan arrears surpassing 15 trillion won and a significant decline in sales and operating profit.

The Impact of Vacant Commercial Spaces and the Rise of Deepfake Technology

Vacant commercial spaces are prevalent, raising concerns about the economy's stability.

The upcoming release of GPT-2 and the song "Starry Night" is generating buzz and affecting related stocks.

Deepfake technology, which uses AI to synthesize faces, is causing controversy and has led to a significant rise in related stocks, while also raising ethical concerns due to its potential for harmful content.

Hyusteel's Investment Struggles and Biotech Surge

2 billion investment in a Saudi pipe company has plummeted to $200 million, causing confusion about its true value.

Despite Hyusteel's market capitalization of $230 billion, its real value is only $30 billion, leading to strong buying interest but a disappointing stock slide.

Meanwhile, Samsung Biologics has surpassed 1 million won in stock price, driven by record sales, while biotech companies like Boronov and Binex are experiencing significant growth and reaching 52-week highs.

The black market outrage continues, but the iPhone 16's unveiling on September 9th may shift the focus, with Apple AI and iOS 18 being revealed.

Libya's eastern government has announced a halt in oil production, causing a rise in WTI and Brent crude prices, while Canada's new tariffs on Chinese goods, including a 100% tariff on electric vehicles, may negatively impact Tesla.

Tesla could potentially avoid the tariffs by adjusting its supply chain to include vehicles produced in the US and Germany.

Hyundai's Electric Vehicle Factory and Battery Technology

government is re-evaluating the environmental permits for Hyundai's Georgia electric vehicle factory due to concerns about its impact on the local water supply.

The factory is set to start operations in October, and local officials say there shouldn't be significant delays from the re-evaluation.

Meanwhile, solid-state batteries for electric vehicles are being re-evaluated, but their high cost and long commercialization timeline present challenges, leading to the emergence of semi-solid batteries as a more viable alternative.