Goldman Sachs Warns of Potential Stock Market Correction

Scott Rub of Goldman Sachs warns that a weak employment report could trigger a stock market correction this September.

### Goldman Sachs' Warning on Stock Market Correction
Goldman Sachs' Scott Rub has warned of a potential **stock market correction** in September, depending on upcoming employment data. His recent predictions have been accurate, including a **mid-July correction** and an **optimistic outlook** in mid-August. The firm's forecast at the end of June advised clients to **reduce stock exposure**, anticipating a **significant correction** before the U.S. presidential election.

### Market Turning Points and Predictions
August is a critical month for fund exits from passive mutual funds, with **stock prices declining** and the S&P 500 **falling until August 7**. Goldman Sachs' memo on August 11 highlighted a **short opportunity to buy American stocks**, and the severe **supply-demand mismatch** in the stock market ended that month. The forecast for the upcoming period warns of a **potential correction** if Friday's employment data is weak, with **historically low trading performance** for the S&P 500 expected at the end of September due to **company buyback blackout periods**.

### Goldman Sachs Warns of Potential Stock Market Correction Amid Employment Data Release
* 📉 Goldman Sachs has issued a warning about a possible **stock market correction** in September, contingent on the **employment data** set to be released this Friday.
* 🔍 Scott Rub, a stock strategy expert at Goldman Sachs, predicts that **weak labor data could trigger this correction**, citing his recent **accurate forecasts** as a basis for concern.
* 📊 Historically, September has been a challenging month for the S&P 500, particularly during a **two-week period known for weak trading**.
* 📅 The anticipated buyback blackout period, starting around September 13, is expected to **reduce corporate demand**, further **exacerbating market conditions**.
* 💼 The upcoming employment report is deemed crucial, with forecasts suggesting a **growth of 161,000 jobs**, compared to **114,000 in July**, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate from **4.3% to 4.2%**.
* 🔔 If the labor data falls short of expectations, it could alter the Federal Reserve's approach to **interest rate cuts**, currently set at **5.25% to 5.5%**.
* 📉 The market is on edge, with the latest job openings report showing a **decline in job separations**, raising concerns about a **cooling job market** and the likelihood of a **rate cut**.
* 🏦 Additionally, significant corporate actions, such as President Biden's anticipated decision regarding **US Steel's acquisition by Nippon Steel**, are influencing stock prices in the lead-up to the **presidential election**.

### Anticipated Market Adjustments and the Importance of the Employment Report
Customers of banks expect a **negative movement in stock prices** starting September 16, with a potential **increase in momentum** if labor data shows weakness. The ruble is projected to **decline due to a 35% decrease in demand** during the buyback blackout period for U.S. corporations. The upcoming employment report is crucial for the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts, with Wall Street anticipating an **increase of 161,000 jobs** and a **drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2%**.

### Anticipated Interest Rate Cuts and Job Market Trends
The Federal Reserve is expected to make **three cuts of 25 basis points each**, with a **36% probability** of the December benchmark rate being between **4% and 4.25%**. The U.S. job openings report for July showed a decrease in job separations and an increase in layoffs, indicating a **cooling job market** and raising the likelihood of a **rate cut**. The New York Stock Exchange closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising slightly, while NVIDIA's stock fell by **1.66%** due to a Bloomberg report.

### Nvidia Subpoena and US Steel Acquisition Block
The U.S. Department of Justice has reportedly issued a subpoena to Nvidia for antitrust matters, but the company claims it has **not received it**. Tech stocks, including AMD and Tesla, are experiencing an **upward trend**. President Biden is expected to announce a decision to **block Nippon Steel's acquisition of US Steel** on national security grounds, with the move being influenced by the **upcoming presidential election**.

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