Samsung's special dividend report for 2026 is out, yet the stock price continues to drop. Why does this make me feel nauseous? Hopefully, in two years, we can laugh about it. So, you need to consider the buying intensity that you can manage within three years. There are some unsettling rumors about Samsung Electronics right now. The situation is still a bit shaky. Today, there were rumors circulating again. However, the stock price of Samsung Electronics is at a level that is independent of the market cycle. Samsung Electronics has its strengths. For one, they have an enormous capacity. Additionally, their technical capabilities in their respective fields are quite high. In particular, their technology is strong in areas related to RAM and NAND, and they also have good technology concerning OLED.

So, the technology for OLED is still strong. In terms of DRAM and NAND, there have been ongoing discussions. You may have heard that the yields in DRAM and NAND, which were originally considered strengths, are declining. I've mentioned this a few times, and it has been said that compared to Hynix, Samsung's DRAM yields are not good. In this situation, while NAND is being produced well, the market is said to be bad and contracting. Currently, what we should focus on in the semiconductor sector is HBM. I've been emphasizing that we need to pay attention to HBM. However, Samsung is not showing proper results in this area, and there are also issues related to Exynos, which has been a significant failure.

There has been a discussion today about the rumors circulating on Telegram regarding the 3-nanometer process yield. It is said that when wafers enter the process, the completion rate for producing proper semiconductors is only 20%. This is quite shocking. When we look at TSMC, the yield for their nanotechnology is said to be over 50%, although exact data is not available. TSMC is also planning to enter the 3-nanometer gate round next year. However, it seems that there are issues with RAM, and there are reports that demand for LPDDR is also decreasing. Additionally, there are delays with HBM, raising questions about whether HBM will be feasible. On top of that, the foundry is trying to catch up with TSMC by introducing the 3-nanometer gate round first, but the rumor of only a 20% yield is concerning. There are claims that TSMC's yield is indeed over 50%. For now, I think this situation is...

It's a rumor, but there's talk that TSMC's share is over 50%. In the same nanometer process, when two chips are made, at least one should be salvageable, no matter how expensive the product is. However, it has been mentioned that the next-generation Galaxy S25 will use Snapdragon for all units. This means that Samsung's semiconductor design division, LSI, is involved. Samsung has its smartphone division, and the authority to select and supply semiconductors lies within the mobile division. In this situation, there are two options: one from Qualcomm and the other from Samsung LSI, which is Exynos. Qualcomm has Snapdragon, and then there's Exynos. Originally, this was how it was set up for the domestic version, while the overseas version...

In the past, there were many cases like this. But now, looking at it, there was talk about adopting Snapdragon entirely for the S23, and for the S24, it seems they will be using both the Exynos and Snapdragon together. However, for the S255, it is said that it will again use only Snapdragon. This means we need to think carefully about this because the only thing we have is this one option. They produce a lot of it, so it’s like a local tteokbokki shop making ten servings and throwing away five servings, compared to a tteokbokki factory making enough for ten thousand and discarding about four thousand. It’s different. They make ten thousand servings, and if not much is sold, they anticipate waste and produce more. If they make ten thousand servings, they might only sell about six thousand, so they need to account for the four thousand servings that will be wasted. So, they should just start by making twenty thousand servings.

If we create a product, then we can produce 20,000 units even if we throw away 8,000. It's a strategy that Samsung used to excel in the past: they would push their production capacity and engage in price competition. Whatever the product, producing in large quantities reduces the price. This has been Samsung's strategy to overshadow other companies. However, with the mindset of let's all go down together, profits are not being made. In a game where everyone is going down, even Samsung won't make money. 

The best scenario is when there are 10,000 people lined up; we should produce exactly for those 10,000 or even just 9,000 to engage in price competition. When there are 10,000 people in line, the most important market strategy is the limited edition strategy. If there is a demand of 100, we should supply only 80 units. Ironically, when there is a demand for 100, supplying only 80...

When supply is increased, what happens is that prices go up, and this can even lead to hoarding. Because of the market logic of resellers, what occurs is that, based on market principles, other suppliers enter the market. If you understand this, it will be easier to grasp when dealing with markets or investments. Let's say there is a demand of 100, but supply is adjusted to 80. Then, prices start to pump up significantly, and companies like NVIDIA see their operating profits soar. So, what happens next? Someone begins to supply similar products or products with similar specifications. If demand is 100 but supply becomes 130, then prices will inevitably drop. Clearly, when there is no supply or when supply is insufficient, the operating profit margins will be extraordinarily high, which is only natural.

The profit margins must be incredibly high. However, as prices begin to drop, that's when we start to see the phenomenon known as the chicken game. As prices fall, the profit margins also decline, and if this decline worsens, it leads to the chicken game. In this situation, companies with strong cash generation capabilities or larger capacities will try to eliminate those with smaller capacities. They might say, You haven't been in the market for long, so you're vulnerable right now, and aggressively enter the market. Other companies likely won't have cash either; they won't have what we call free cash flow. So, if I tighten the pressure on you for about two years, you could go bankrupt. After those two years, I could monopolize the market again. This is the strategy they are employing.

Chicken game. In this situation, if we look at a more positive market, we can say that prices may not fall. The demand is 100, and we supply only up to 80 while someone monopolizes this market. However, this market is very attractive, and someone is creating another factory to supply another product. If the demand rises to 150, we still have an 80 supply and a 50 supply. If we supply 130, the prices and price increases, as well as hoarding, can still occur. What is happening here? This is the AI market, where someone continuously adds supply or increases production. In this case, if demand goes up, we can produce more. This means we are inclined to buy more. This leads to a market that is growing in an upward trend.

Another supplier is emerging, and here comes another supplier. Since there is no money, the capacity may be limited, and the supply might be small, but someone else appears. So, they say, Well, then the supply is 160, but the demand is also rising. Overall, if the total supply is now 160, but demand is still higher, prices won't drop. If this happens, it indicates a market that is worth watching— a growing market that can be ventured into. Whether it’s cars, electric vehicles, batteries, or DRAM, if you track the balance of supply and demand well, investing becomes much easier. The biggest indicator of this is the price indicator. This price indicator, along with the rate of product adoption, is crucial.

The important question is whether there is a lot of news coming in about this. Have you heard any news related to Samsung Electronics' foundry? If we talk specifically about the foundry market, the demand continues to rise. The demand is increasing for semiconductor manufacturing companies in our country, whether it’s for autonomous driving chips, smartphone chips, or AI-related design technologies. There are about 50,000 companies claiming they can design semiconductors and asking for semiconductor production. However, the problem is that while the demand keeps increasing, the supply is only growing from one source. The supply is not increasing well. This is TSMC and Samsung. TSMC is continuously increasing its supply capacity and expanding, but is Samsung Electronics able to properly increase its supply? This is the discussion around foundry expansion.

Have you heard that Samsung Electronics is currently increasing its foundry factories? TSMC is planning to add seven factories by the end of this year and five more by next year. When have we ever seen news about Samsung increasing its foundry factories? Isn't it true that they are building one in Austin, but that's about it? I’m not familiar with semiconductors, so I'm asking, is there anywhere that uses their Exynos chips if they don't even put them in their own devices? There isn't, right? I explained this a bit earlier, but to clarify further, the smartphone division and the foundry division are separate, with the foundry supplying to the smartphone side. However, even within Samsung’s own affiliates, it doesn’t make sense to them that their own brother would create something that they can't use. So, they have to rely on external sources.

You're saying that Qualcomm is being used, and that they're currently relying on external sources. Can't they include this based on their loyalty to TSMC? Meanwhile, all their competitors have products made by TSMC, like Apple semiconductors and Snapdragon, but Samsung is the only one that isn't favored. If that continues, Samsung phones won't sell well. Right now, Samsung is surviving on its phone business, and the biggest cash flow is here. This is the most stable operation, and the company is now being recognized for its smartphone business. So, what's with the loyalty talk? There is no loyalty. They're just trying to protect their own performance. If the foundry performance drops, only the executives here will be at risk. Who would want to take that chance? Are we supposed to feed them? KB Securities, New York hotel fund, total loss news.

Can a fund lose all its value? Yes, if you leverage it, a fund can indeed incur a total loss. Both KB and Hana, as well as Mirae Asset, have experienced total losses in overseas real estate funds. If you combine the losses from last year, it amounts to about 4 to 5 trillion won as of the beginning of this year. They should maintain their stock prices, but if Samsung isn't protecting its domestic stock prices, why should they protect theirs? By the way, how about double? I want to buy that, but personally, I’m not too keen on it. If you frequently look at charts, it’s not an issue, but if you don’t, it can be surprisingly bothersome. This is especially true since I use two phones; I don’t know about those who use one phone, but for me, it’s really annoying. So, this is more for watching videos or maybe placing it at a slight angle on my desk.

It is often used for watching videos when set up at a slight angle like this. When I'm lounging at home, it's really the best. In that case, it's nice to open it up a bit like this and watch videos. However, there aren't many accessories available. It's a bit difficult to use it as a car mount, and there aren't many accessories overall. If I don't open it, it feels a bit small. It's a bit small to use without opening it. My fingers are thick, so it's quite hard for people with thicker fingers to use. For those with thinner fingers, it might be manageable, but for thicker fingers, it's really challenging. If I don't activate it, it says that two buttons are pressed, but for thicker fingers, it can be really tough. It's also heavy. Anyway, TSMC is continuously growing well.

Samsung Electronics is not getting any news about this. It is completely silent. So, I have always said since last year that when asked which is better between Samsung Electronics and Hynix, I always mention Hynix. The reason is that Samsung Electronics continues to have discussions about HBM, and while they can do foundry and RAM production, I don't think there's a need to stop the dollar-cost averaging. I believe the situation doesn't warrant stopping the dollar-cost averaging. What I am most worried about, and have been continuously worried about, is that Samsung Electronics will make good money this time. They do have the capacity, and their yield isn't that bad. Originally, I wasn't interested in foundry, but looking at HBM, it seems like there are issues being resolved, right? HBM 3 is only entering China, and there are rumors that it has passed, but there hasn't been an official announcement yet.

Over the weekend, the topic came up about HBM3, and it seems that the delivery has been made for the 8-layer version. Moreover, it is said that this will be used in the Black model, meaning it will be included in all Black products. There were also comments indicating that it's not just for the Chinese-exclusive H20. Currently, Hanbit has fallen further, and the solo situation has ended without any explanation, announcement, or disclosure. The 8-layer call is still ongoing. Oh, wait a minute, are you an internal employee of Samsung? Haha, really? Yes, it's still not done; the call is still in progress. Various rumors are circulating, but it seems like it's still far from completion. I guess you're working in the HBM division. It seems like they are saying to take it as you will, whether you believe it or not. They say there’s no sincerity in it. There are reports from the news lately, and it seems that the Taiwanese media is also picking up on this, so it’s currently being reported in Korean media as well.

Since it’s not working, the Samsung guys seem to have put their heads together and thought, If we stir things up with Taiwanese media, maybe that story will circulate. In that regard, Samsung is making money well with smartphones, home appliances, and even the automotive sector, which is currently in the black. The DRAM market is so large that they are earning money. So, the performance is increasing, and operating profit is growing; that's okay because they are managing well. However, they keep saying there is no next. If they continue to have no next, the conclusion is that they will just end up in this situation. Samsung has historically been a long-term rising company, which is why people keep talking about Samsung. The next thing after smartphones was supposed to be foundry, but the foundry still seems to be lacking something.

They are not able to produce properly, and after foundry, the next thing is HBM, and they are also not able to produce it correctly. The strength of Samsung Electronics' technology has completely disappeared. Regarding foundry and HBM, the most concerning factors for Samsung Electronics right now are these issues, as well as the next generation of smartphones, which are not visible. This is the biggest worry at the moment. I think this is the main problem that needs to be addressed. That’s why I keep mentioning Hynix and TSMC. Samsung feels a wall with foundry, which TSMC has taken over, and Samsung feels a wall with HBM, which SK Hynix has completely taken over. However, even with Hynix's HBM news, there are developments related to autonomous driving, as Google’s autonomous driving chips also use HBM. We say that HBM will be included in smartphones, but we are still uncertain about smartphones.

The demand for HBM chips in autonomous driving is continuously increasing, and SK Hynix is now supplying these chips in a sort of foundry manner. When looking at companies like Google Waymo, it seems that as long as the HBM market doesn't completely collapse, Hynix will continue to thrive in the HBM sector. Currently, Micron is struggling with yield issues, and Samsung Electronics is also facing challenges. However, Hynix is actively expanding its HBM manufacturing capabilities. I believe the biggest problem is that Samsung Electronics has lost its competitive edge in this area. They are still making good profits and managing their operations well, so they aren't in a catastrophic situation, but if Samsung can't address these issues, it could lead to a future where Samsung Electronics remains only a distant dream. I hope you keep that in mind. Anyway,

I'm saying this and cutting the replay. Samsung Electronics is really frustrating.

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