Semiconductor Market: Growth, Changes, and Stock Analysis

The performance of foundry will determine changes, impacting stock prices and market sentiments for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

### Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix: Navigating the Semiconductor Market Dynamics
* 🏭  Samsung Electronics' second-quarter operating profit is expected to reach **8.1 trillion won**, a significant increase from the **600 billion won** level in the same period last year.
* 📈  Samsung Electronics is preparing to announce its second-quarter results, and despite the good performance, the stock price may not **react much in the short term**.
* 🧠  The semiconductor industry is experiencing a **shortage of memory chips**, and both Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are **crucial suppliers for NVIDIA**.
* 💰  Samsung Electronics' stock price is expected to **surpass 100,000 won** if **HBM MBD is successfully delivered**.
* 📉  It is important to pay attention to signs that the growth rate of semiconductor companies may start to **slow down**, indicating a potential **turning point**.
* 💡 " Rather than focusing on simply reaching the all-time high, it may be more important to dream of Samsung Electronics' stock price reaching **120,000 or 130,000 won**.
* 💊  SK Hynix is expected to report a revenue deficit of around **15.8 trillion won** in the second quarter, but the actual performance **exceeded expectations**.
* 📉  When SK Hynix's stock price broke through the upper part of the PBR band in the past, there was a **strong atmosphere of selling**.
* 💻  NVIDIA continues to deliver good financial results, but the **surprise rate of earnings per share** is gradually decreasing.
* 🔮  It is crucial to consider the **competitive landscape** and the presence of **substitutes** when evaluating NVIDIA's future stock prices.

Dreaming of 120,000 and 130,000 won, isn't it more important to envision such dreams? Although we are a dream, how much performance the foundry will deliver is crucial. Currently, the foundry business unit may be caught up in performance, but the stock price does not reflect it at all. Customers are leaving, and if that continues, they say they will chase after TSMC, but the gap keeps widening. Suddenly, there are parts where changes are starting to occur like Sun Wukong awakening. If the flow comes in, it could change again. It's a subtle moment in the market, so we need to diagnose the market a bit. It's a timing to cross the first and second half of the year and check it once. It's a subtle moment, what does that mean, and if you could check the Korean and U.S. stock markets now? Well, you might think you need to go to the U.S. stock market first to support it, but...

Looking at the data that comes out, the indices are quite good, and the Korean stock market is the same. The indices are fine, but both the U.S. and Korean stock markets, despite the indices or the overall sentiment not being bad, are not good in detail. What I mean is, there are significantly more declining stocks. This is the case for the U.S. stock market as well. Even if you usually look at the S&P 500 or Nasdaq in the U.S. stock market, there are stocks that cross the middle, such as the Russell Lynch, with stocks up to 3,000 in market cap. When you look at the flow of those stocks, you can't keep up. If you think about where this has influenced the most, the most important thing is interest rates. If you see that interest rates have an impact, from the perspective that it hasn't kept up as much as expected, you should think that a change in interest rates needs to come in for all stocks and indices to rise, and a positive change can come later.

It was the same, especially in the U.S. market, the best thing in the first half of the year was big tech companies that we know, like AI. These big tech companies that can emerge with AI were the best. So, as that change continues, many people are leaving the U.S. market for investment these days. Even if it's not possible in the Korean market, they are leaving for the U.S. And even if they go to the U.S. and trade, they don't deal with small stocks, like small software companies or unknown biotech companies, right? So, they can't trade them. But as we trade the stocks we know, we buy them and wait a bit, and they all go up. So, it's worth investing in U.S. stocks. But if big tech companies keep going up and a change occurs where even mid-cap stocks start moving.

Well, then everything will change. At that time, the Korean stock market may be better than the U.S. stock market. In the first half of the year, it was relatively good in terms of the index. However, in the second half, we may need to check more carefully. We should look at it in a more detailed manner. Now, talking about U.S. stocks, Tesla's stock price can't drop. These days, it has been continuously rising, about 10% today, reaching $231. Some people are talking about weak performance, but why is the stock price rising? There were two reasons. When we look at Tesla, there is something called a breakthrough gap. It jumps up without any particular good news. So, there are these two factors. For companies like Tesla, first, there is a lot of talk about production volume. Even though the production volume in the first quarter was in the double digits, it was expected to be not so good this time, but it didn't decrease much.

The declining trend was less severe than expected, so it seems that there was a reaction. Since the anticipation was not high, with a slight improvement, especially when looking at this trend, the performance in the second quarter was good. So, the electric vehicle market seems to be reviving. So, from the perspective of China, they are saying, Oh, this is good. The changes in China are good. When such responses come out, even Tesla is doing well. As expected, around 440,000 units were released, and the actual delivery volume was about 10,000 units higher than expected. Reacting to these, I don't think that's the key point. The essential points are that Musk supported CEO Trump. Well, that's just something they mentioned, and it changed to supporting Trump.

It's unavoidable these days. When you look at it now, the companies that didn't get into the Trump side have all dropped out. Oh, recently, Biden coughed a lot again during the presidential debate, showing an unhealthy appearance. It's a bit disappointing to see him taking medicine and struggling. Of course, there may be reasons for that, but the most crucial thing is this. When we look at Tesla's business unit, we have electric cars, charging business, robots, and various autonomous driving businesses. Surprisingly, the energy business sector is showing strong growth. In the energy business unit, there is ES business unit, such as solar business unit. But among them, the ES business unit, as you all know, that power.

In this area, there is an industrial Mega Pack and a Powerwall for home use. With these two, the industrial side is growing explosively. Tesla has been thinking a lot about its role in the ESS sector, and suddenly confirming this growth rate, it seems like a significant change will come. They currently have a factory in California. It is more crowded than expected. They need to increase production. Where will they do this? In China. The factory is expected to start operating in the first quarter of 2025. Then the factory will be up and running. The capacity will increase. I expect nearly 100% growth by 2025 and 2026. Currently, the energy business unit centered around ESS accounts for only 6-7% of total sales. By 2026, I expect it to jump to 20%. That's how important it is.

Talking about taking on roles, the importance of it, when I said, Look at this, the mayor reacted strongly. When you look closely, if you look at the market share Tesla has in the U.S., the ES ES division is ranked number one in the market show, holding 30%. Do you know why? It's LG Energy Solution, holding 16.5%. While looking at the data, some data that was overlooked started to come out, and from there, views on LG Energy Solution, which is doing well in the secondary battery sector in the U.S., started to emerge from the ES side. Nowadays, things are changing again. With LG Solution's appearance changing as well, parts that were only looking at electric cars are gradually diversifying. Another thing that was known is that as these parts that have grown a lot come out, it actually accelerated Tesla. Such appearances are not what I think. But in the U.S. and Europe,

Facing the dilemma of increased demand for electric cars, in China, it can be seen as a sign of survival that sales are increasing anyway. However, there are risks of bidding competitions, which of course also apply to Tesla. Some predict that it will be challenging for Tesla to grow further due to the advanced lineup of Tesla models. How do you view this kind of spirit and what about Tesla's stock price in the future? It's not about simply saying it will keep rising just because it has been going up. Expectations have diminished significantly as sales related to electric cars are not as promising as before. While acknowledging that, other previously unknown facts are emerging, showing that Tesla has changing aspects. As we head into August, on August 8th.

Robot taxis are coming out. Yes, what does this mean? It means that they have confidence in autonomous driving. If it's not a cheap car, it will become a popular car. I think that when people buy it a lot, they will use it during the day, park it in the garage when they get home, and just switch it out. That's what I'm saying. There won't be a need to switch the switch. But if you switch the switch and come home, and you have no use for it, you can just switch it to robot taxi mode. Then what will this car do? It will receive requests. Someone on the other side wants to go to the neighboring store. But I parked the car somewhere and left it. When I call for the car, the person next door sees it, brings the car over, picks up the person, takes them to the store, charges a fee, and handles the operation by itself. It will come back right before I need it at home. While I'm sleeping, this car is working for me. How amazing is that?

As these concepts begin to emerge, there are some exaggerated appearances, but usually, when our dream of growth is shattered, the stock price plummets indiscriminately. However, as the enthusiasm for growth begins to return, the stock price recovers temporarily. Isn't it likely that there will be a refreshment saying, This is such a company? Perhaps the sales data-related aspects have not yet reached their peak, and the downturn is seen as having reached its peak. It seems more appropriate to view the changes in stock prices more positively. Samsung's second-quarter performance expectations are being revised upward. The FN Guide's second-quarter operating profit forecast consensus is 8.1 trillion won, which is expected to increase by 1,000,000% compared to the 600 billion won level in the same period last year. How do you see the preliminary results for the second quarter and how do you view the future stock prices? Anyway, as far as I know, the performance is now being...

I know that it's coming out around July 5th. Yes, that's right. First of all, the change that is coming in. The first thing is, now, don't talk about HBM anymore. It's not a topic anymore. Even without HBM, the performance is good, right? That's right. That's right. You can explain just by saying that the memory is working well even without going to MBD. Where did we see this? Micron Technology showed it when they announced their performance. So, by taking that as it is, when the third-ranked company in the market shows this much change, it raises expectations on how much faster the turnaround of the first-ranked company will be. So, when changes like this come in that direction, expectations increase. Therefore, I believe that it will be reflected. However, in the short term, even if Samsung Electronics announces good performance on the day of the announcement or recently, no matter how good the performance is, the stock price doesn't react much. It may be a little depressed or it may be like that, so even if the reaction cools down.

This time, when we announce the second-quarter results and talk about the third and fourth quarters, even if we say it could slightly increase from around 82 trillion won, in the third and fourth quarters, the operating profit itself starts to exceed 100 trillion won. Then, the atmosphere changes again, right? So, the second half of the year will be even better. Even if it's just a speculation, couldn't the stock price turn around? Frankly, there was a lot of talk about Samsung Electronics. Why is Samsung Electronics struggling without HBM? Even if we just calmly look at the cycle now, there should be one at around 86,000 won in the front. It seems reasonable for it to go in that direction, at least. Probably, based on the discussions, within August, in the HBM-related area, it is expected that the discussion on NVIDIA's supply will almost be completed. They received outstanding attention.

SK Hynix is a bit shaky, and Samsung Electronics seems to be going up. Changes are happening in this direction. In my opinion, both should be seen as opportunities. From NVIDIA's perspective, H00 is coming now, then H200, and if we go into early next year, B100 and R100 will come out, upgraded chips will start to come out. In the current case, HBM 32 goes in five, then six, eight, and so on. As we need to go into the same house, more units of HBM will come out, but there may be concerns due to shortages. So, no matter how you look at it, whether you buy Samsung Electronics or SK Hynix, isn't it necessary because NVIDIA needs it more? If that's the case, we have no choice but to accept it. SK Hynix may temporarily drop out. If that happens, it should also be seen as an opportunity. If you already have Samsung Electronics, it's the same.

I expect additional plus alpha to continue. The key point of looking at this opportunity is that the cycle repeats itself and rises again. It seems like we need to focus on this point. I saw a newspaper article saying that it might reach 100,000 won. What do you think? Last time, I bought it at 96,800 won, but even if we only look at the current performance, if we only focus on the cycle of memory semiconductors, when we look at the best performance in the past, it was around 51 trillion won in 21. If we go to next year, it's almost going to reach the 55 trillion won range. But if we consider the plus alpha, if HBM 3 comes in, precisely, if it goes in that direction and expands its scope, it is said that we need to give more upside. This might not be a high price because in the case of memory semiconductors, there is clearly a cycle.

You should look at where the cycle ends. It's probably better to sell before reaching the peak. This is typically seen as a two-and-a-half-year cycle. So, early next year, the cycle could end. This change may start with the introduction of AI-driven HBM 3. With that, expansion could be possible. How much this will be crucial is what matters the most. It's likely that the growth rate of operating profit will start to slow down. This is a sign that a turning point is approaching. You should pay attention to this. Also, as the semiconductor export growth rate continues to increase and then slightly stagnate, memory demand itself may become heavier. Considering this, you should be prepared for any timing. If HBM MBD is delivered, it is said that the 100,000 won mark will be surpassed by electronics.

Can't we break through the all-time high? Even if not, it seems like we can go in a similar direction. In my opinion, isn't it more important to dream of 120,000 or 130,000 electronics rather than the all-time high? Although we have dreams, the performance of the foundry will determine the changes. The current foundry business segment may be reflected in the performance, but the stock price is not reflecting it at all. Many customers are leaving, so if that happens, we will continue to fall behind TSMC. Suddenly, like Sun Wukong awakening, there are parts that are asking how to handle it as if awakening. When something starts to change, the flow comes in. Then it can change again. I believe, as a shareholder of Samsung Electronics, we should also ask SK Hynix. In the second quarter, SK Hynix is expected to have a deficit of around 15.8 trillion won in revenue.

With a profit of 49 trillion won, sales three months ago were 140 trillion won, and operating profit was 20 trillion won, exceeding expectations by 12.62% and 81.2%, respectively. How do you see the future of Hynix? It's currently at 236,000 won, and if you're a holder, when should you sell? Because it's not something you can hold forever. Last summer, the Hynix stock price was around 120,000 won, and it just rose to 200,000 won. At that time, we talked about 200,000 won, but it just passed that mark and went even higher. So, the current market cap is slightly below 170 trillion won. When we look at PBR bands for stocks like SK Hynix, a memory semiconductor company, they tend to break through the upper part of the PBR band. It's currently at around 1.85 times, so if it goes up by about one or two times, that's the peak. So, the weak point that was mentioned at that time was around 160,000 won.

If the price goes over 170,000 won, there was a strong atmosphere of almost selling suits. When PBR Ban Ge got a little excited about growth, the bulls were trapped. The cycle was trapped, and as a result, they ignored growth too much. When it kept going up, they sold everything and left. Oh, it went up another 50,000 or 60,000 won. This kind of situation emerged. In conclusion, if you currently hold Hynix, I hope you can hold it until you can see it as a seed for growth. Furthermore, as I mentioned earlier, there are some variables. Even if there is volatility or turbulence when Samsung Electronics enters, I think that would be more of an opportunity. The position is still not greatly shaken. So, from Nvidia's perspective, who are they mainly looking at? They seem to be looking at Hynix and when Samsung Electronics enters, they seem to be looking towards the sub side. So far, Hynix's position is still.

I think we should consider that there won't be a significant change. Should we try to hit 200 trillion won in sales? From now on, we could go up by about 30%. It's okay to add around 300,000 won. That's all I will mention. In my mind, even if it's 300,000 won, someone has to buy it. Then, what if the performance doesn't come out well? If we look at it now, as mentioned earlier, in terms of annual performance, the market cap is expected to reach around 300 trillion won next year. Considering a growth of PR 15 times based on operating profit, the valuation could double. It may not be such an expensive figure. Looking at it from a profit perspective, since 1 trillion is expected to come out, it's an estimate. However, there could be more upside, and if we aim for around PR 10 times next year, let's try to reach 200 trillion won. This is how I'm looking at it with the mindset of trying it once. Whether it's Hynix or Samsung Electronics, or even American companies like NVIDIA, the stock prices are highly correlated. How do you see NVIDIA's quarterly performance announcement?

How do you see the future stock prices? In response to this question, Researcher Lee Yong-chan of Hi Investment Securities stated that NVIDIA continues to announce good financial results, but the surprise rate of earnings per share is gradually decreasing, which is not a good sign. However, despite this, they are maintaining a dominant competitive position and high profit margins due to high demand. What do you think of this opinion? It could also be said that when the growth rate of a growing stock stops, it's done. But more importantly, is there a substitute for NVIDIA? Currently, there isn't. Will AMD take that place? It seems like Brucecom will. If a change like that doesn't happen yet, NVIDIA's public acknowledgment cannot be shaken. It seems more appropriate to consider that a premium will be added based on the flow of performance. In the past, we had Y2K, so in the early 2000s, the.

They called it the Dot-com bubble, and it's often compared to that time. Nowadays, as the stock prices are rapidly rising, people say that although back then, the performance that couldn't keep up, when you look at the performance compared to the stock movement in NVIDIA now, you should consider that there is quite a distance. If you don't see it that way, there are two things that stand out. The first is the stock split, and the second is that even if a stock split happens, even if bets come in like going from $120 to $200, a stock split itself doesn't have a significant impact on the stock price, right? Therefore, it's just a matter of feeling good about it. In comparison to that, after the stock split, the flow of stagnation increases a bit, which is the first thing, and the second is insider selling. Mr. Hwang is waiting to sell about 6 million shares, and if the stock price goes up, then this time.

Selling pressure will continue. Similarly, even institutional investors are preparing to sell. When the price goes up, there will be substantial selling pressure to handle. It seems that a process of digesting these substantial amounts of selling pressure will be necessary. We have been waiting for the performance results from that process. If we follow the Korean style, NVIDIA will be slightly ahead by a quarter. Since our second quarter becomes the first quarter, when about the third quarter comes for us, rapid growth may not be expected due to base effects. It's not possible to sustain a 50% growth continuously, right? Even though the growth rate has slowed down compared to the scale, the scale itself is maintained. The market's reaction to the sentiment that the scale is maintained despite the decrease in growth rate will be crucial. By then, there might be some fatigue in the market. However, after considering these factors, we will continue to strive for level up. This is how we should view it.

Yes, and also, talking about Broadcom, according to the decision of the Korean Securities Depository on the 2nd, individual investors have been buying Nvidia, ranking 1st to 5th in net purchases in the past month. It is estimated that Nvidia's profit is 1.5 times that of Lever It Grandrie's 1.5x long Nvidia Daily. Next, there are Micron Technology, Broadcom, and TSMC. What do you think about Micron Technology, Broadcom, and TSMC, excluding Nvidia? Looking at Nvidia, the side that produces Nvidia now is TSMC, and the same goes for Broadcom. Anticipation for the market is high, and individual investors have transformed a lot. Recently, I saw that, right. Yes, the Korean market is not very interesting, so recently, they have been performing well in terms of earnings, and there have been talks of stock splits. It has been gradually rising, receiving some profit-taking, and returning gently. Anyway, this side as well.

One of the most talked-about things when it comes to shaking NVIDIA's dominance is AMD. Also, as companies like Broadcom started producing chips and prominent players moving in different directions, there are many discussions about boosting competition in the industry of AI chips. Another topic that comes up is Qualcomm. It used to play a significant role in the CPU market for mobile devices, but as we enter the AI era, the focus is shifting towards areas like PCs. With Samsung Galaxy Book 4 H incorporating Qualcomm Snapdragon, the scope is expanding. There is a sense that the field is broadening, but recently, there have been discussions about falling behind, so it seems important to digest this.

In the case of AR, although the stock price fluctuates quite a bit, the expectations from the perspective of the company are high. Even though AR technology goes back and forth, as a chip design company, various companies are requesting designs for AI and similar technologies. Therefore, there is a diversity in requests, and it is mentioned that even AR-related stocks can benefit from this environment where chips for developing AI are in demand, starting to gain attention in the U.S. market.

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Mixed Performance in the Foundry Business and Stock Markets

The foundry business unit is struggling with performance and customer retention, potentially losing ground to TSMC.

and Korean stock markets show overall positive indices but are facing challenges with a significant number of declining stocks.

Tesla's stock price is defying weak performance expectations, possibly due to a breakthrough gap and steady production volume.

Tesla's Evolving Business Focus and Growth Projections

The electric vehicle market showed a promising revival in the second quarter, with Tesla exceeding delivery expectations.

Tesla's energy business unit, particularly the ESS sector, is experiencing explosive growth and is expected to account for 20% of total sales by 2026.

The company's expansion plans include a new factory in China, projected to contribute to a nearly 100% growth in capacity by 2026 and solidify Tesla's leading market share in the ESS division.

Tesla's Growing Sales and Future Prospects

Tesla's sales are increasing in the face of rising demand for electric cars in China, despite the risk of bidding competitions.

The company's advanced model lineup may pose challenges for further growth, but the introduction of robot taxis in August indicates confidence in autonomous driving, potentially boosting popularity.

Despite fluctuating sales expectations, the emerging concept of the robot taxi and the positive revision of Samsung's second-quarter performance suggest a more optimistic view of Tesla's future stock prices.

Anticipated Changes in Samsung Electronics Performance

Samsung Electronics is expected to see an increase in performance following Micron Technology's demonstration of good memory functioning without HBM.

The company's stock price may not react immediately to the announcement of good performance, but the operating profit is projected to exceed 100 trillion won in the third and fourth quarters, potentially leading to a turnaround.

The discussion on NVIDIA's supply is anticipated to be completed by August, with upcoming upgraded chips, presenting opportunities for investment in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Anticipating the Future of Memory Semiconductors

The memory semiconductor market is projected to follow a recurring cycle, with expectations of reaching 100,000 won and potentially surpassing previous performance.

The introduction of AI-driven HBM 3 is seen as a crucial factor that could lead to expansion and increased upside.

The upcoming changes in the semiconductor industry, including the introduction of HBM MBD and the performance of the foundry business segment, will heavily influence stock prices and the market's future direction.

Hynix's Financial Performance and Future Outlook

Hynix reported a significant profit of 49 trillion won, with sales three months ago reaching 140 trillion won and operating profit at 20 trillion won, surpassing expectations by 12.

The current stock price is 236,000 won, and it's suggested to consider selling when it reaches around 300,000 won, with a potential market cap of 300 trillion won next year.

The company's position is expected to remain strong, with potential growth and opportunities, despite potential volatility when Samsung Electronics enters the market.

NVIDIA's earnings per share surprise rate is decreasing, signaling a potential concern despite its strong competitive position and high profit margins.

The company currently has no direct substitute, but there is speculation that Brucecom could fill that role in the future.

The upcoming selling pressure from insider and institutional investors, along with the potential fatigue in the market, will require a process of digesting substantial sell-offs, impacting the stock's performance.

Individual Investors' Impact on Chip Companies, Excluding Nvidia

Individual investors have been heavily buying Nvidia stocks, with high anticipation for Micron Technology, Broadcom, and TSMC.

AMD is a significant player in shaking Nvidia's dominance, while Qualcomm is expanding its focus from the CPU market to areas like PCs and AR technology.

The demand for AI chips is increasing, leading to growing attention on AR-related stocks in the U.