Understanding Real Estate Market Fluctuations and Psychology

The current housing market is in turmoil, with increasing demand from those without homes, borrowing loans, and potential market changes.

### Understanding the Complexities of the Current Real Estate Market
* 😨 Viewers are often influenced by media reports on the real estate market, leading to **anxiety among prospective homebuyers**.
* 🏠 Those without homes are rushing to **take out loans and buy houses** as prices rise, while existing homeowners are not motivated to **sell at lower prices**.
* 💰 The market is currently experiencing an **increase in actual demand** but a **decrease in investment demand**.
* 📈 As prices continue to rise due to increased borrowing, the **sustainable demand is expected to decline**.
* 🔍 It is crucial to analyze the **causes of market fluctuations** and **predict future changes**.
* 🏦 The recent trend of **lowering interest rates** has led to the belief that now is the time to **quickly take out loans and buy houses**.
* 🤔 However, it is more important to determine whether the **current house prices are reasonable**.
* 🛑 Given the high market volatility, it is advisable **not to make hasty decisions** and to **carefully assess one's own situation**.

When we see various broadcasts and reports through the media now, the housing market is also in turmoil. The number of people looking to buy houses is increasing, many are taking out loans, and news like this continues. So, when viewers see only this news, they may think the same way. From the perspective of those without a house, they might feel like they have to buy now or they will miss the opportunity. This kind of anxious thought seems to be prevalent. Therefore, in the current market situation, who are the most anxious when such content comes out psychologically? It's those without homes. So, what is being expressed in their anxiety is quickly taking out loans and buying as prices rise. Because they are anxious, they can't afford to miss out. So, those who already own a home have no intention of buying cheaply. Because now, they won't even have to pay taxes or property tax will be abolished, so they won't have the intention to sell cheaply. But

People in a hurry now are those without homes, and they are now borrowing loans to buy houses, so there are recent changes in the market. However, an interesting point is that the investment demand is decreasing. Ah, then the actual demand is increasing now. So, the actual demand can get a lot of loans in Korea. Therefore, when prices rise and trading volume increases, loans increase as well. In other words, it means that the actual demand is buying. Investment demand doesn't lend loans, so they buy with lump-sum deposits. So, statistically, the current investment demand situation is not about buying houses. Therefore, in this situation, most people who buy houses by borrowing loans are increasing their debts. So, looking at the market trend, prices are rising.

Is it true that there is vitality in the real estate market? Should we look at it that way? How should we? First of all, the trading volume is increasing, and prices are rising, so it indicates a kind of market change. The important thing is, what is the cause of the fluctuations? We need to find the cause of the fluctuations so that we can make a forecast, right? But the cause of the fluctuations is that consumers are buying by taking out loans. That's the cause of the fluctuations. But this situation is unlikely to continue. Oh, really? If they keep buying, prices will keep going up. How will they be able to afford it continuously? Well, the demand from those consumers is somewhat fixed, in terms of a percentage. Therefore, because the demand from consumers is fixed, if they keep buying with loans, it will eventually decrease. So, as prices rise, the demand that can be sustained will naturally continue to decrease. That's right. Therefore, it is highly likely that the current market changes are temporary.

That's right. Essentially, as the prices continue to rise, the demand comes from investors or speculators. But those people don't have the heart to buy now. Oh, we should watch that closely. Yes, that's why the recent increase in selling volume. Oh, should we sort this out now? Right. That's why the world is unfair. Because in 2021, there was a similar situation. People were in a hurry to buy houses, took on debt, and bought houses at high prices. But multiple homeowners sold their houses at that time. Why did they sell when the house prices were rising? They should buy more, right? So, those people are experts in investment or speculation, aren't they? They saw that it wouldn't last long. As expected by those experts, the house prices plummeted, underwent correction, and some people are struggling with debt again.

They bring out the double standards, and in 2022, those who own multiple houses bought more. But now, as things are trying to stabilize, they are saying that they will provide loans based on information and loosen regulations, so all politicians are talking about real estate taxes again. Therefore, homebuyers are taking out loans again, causing those who own multiple houses to start selling their houses. This seems to be repeating. In fact, talk of virtually abolishing comprehensive real estate tax is coming up, and the tax rate keeps decreasing. As a result, real owners are stimulated, and now when they buy, the prices have gone up a bit. Those who were investing are now at a level of sorting things out, not really investing. People who are borrowing money are now in a situation where they have to sit on it. So, for example, for investors.

People don't buy just because taxes are cut. Right, there should be an expectation of price increase to buy. Additionally, if they cut taxes and loosen regulations like this, saying that housing prices rise, people feel uneasy. It's unsettling, especially for those without homes. So, they take out loans to buy houses. If that happens, there can be anticipated results. However, one thing we can see differently is the interest rate part, right? Since they are talking about interest rate cuts, if you enter into lower interest rates, even those who bought houses by borrowing can endure it. They might think it's cheaper, so they end up paying less and think, I have my own house now. In a way, it could be seen as a better choice, don't you think? But if housing prices drop, if they drop, there won't be buyers, and without buyers, they drop.

If you keep selling and it drops, so now, so what's happening near here is a new loan called a mortgage loan. The interest rate for a home mortgage loan is 3% to 4%, but they offer it at 1%. So, they say the loan interest rate dropped by 2 points, so you should quickly get a loan and buy a house. However, for example, when you borrow 200 million won, if the interest rate drops by 2 points, it's 4 million won per year, right? But if you buy a house for 100 million or 200 million won, it becomes expensive, right? Then, if it drops by 100 million, for example, then how many years do you need to save 4 million won? Oh, but 100 million can easily drop, you've seen that, right? Yes, you saw it. For example, a wealthy person a few months ago, so what I mean is, if we simply look at the current situation and think that the interest rate will go down, we should quickly get a loan and buy a house.

That's not the important thing. What's more important is whether your house price is at a reasonable level. It's more important to look at that. This is looking at things differently in the world. For example, I don't necessarily want to compare owning a house with stocks, but for example, in the case of stocks, if it seems like the stock price may not go up, and the bank says, We will give you a cheap loan when you buy stocks, would you quickly take out a loan and buy stocks? No, absolutely not, right? Real estate is like that. Ah, I see, I understand now. So, in the current situation, from the perspective of a layperson, the media keeps saying to buy a lot, it's going up, interest rates are going down, but it's not a situation where you should rush in blindly, right? You need to analyze it carefully. That's right. In fact, from 2008 to 2013, the mortgage loan-to-value ratio for homes decreased from the 70s to the 30s, a decrease of 4 percentage points. So, if the interest rate drops, the house prices will.

You should have gone up. No, from 2009 to 2013, the house prices kept falling, that's right. Why did it fall? The interest rates went down, but what happened was, at that time, the economic level was high, so many people who owned houses kept selling them. As the number of people buying decreased, naturally the demand and supply decreased, so the prices fell. Therefore, it's not all about interest rate cuts. In 2013, when I was looking for a newlywed house, I remember that time. The atmosphere back then was like, Don't buy a cheap house, it's the era of buying a house to make money. That era was over, and it was said that prices could drop further, so it was better to rent. In 2013, it was such a time again, and it was like hitting rock bottom. So, I argued a lot at home, asking why I chose to rent. Because, like now, it was like this.

I mean, it's all chaotic, isn't it? So, you know, it's hard to know. When I think back to that time, I used to think the owner of the house was just a fool, but since 2014, the prices have been going up a lot. I had thought a lot about the fact that the idol I kept raising was also rising, but then it fell again, and it's hard to know what's going to happen. This is the time when you all need to change your way of thinking a bit. Especially when it comes to the information you receive, in the case of real estate, there is too much distortion. For example, in 2014, there were media and experts who said that the Korean real estate was over, but in 2011, they were talking about a surge in house prices in 2013, saying there was a shortage of houses. So, I'm not saying anything about those people, but if you only focus on the current situation or phenomenon, you can't predict the future. So, the fluctuations of today.

It is necessary to think about the causes, whether this change will continue, and how it will change in the future. Even among those watching this broadcast, there are certainly people who are contemplating whether to buy a house. As you go around, you will hear a lot of talk about real estate, like, We have listings available now. It is unsettling. What should real homeowners do? If interest rates go down, it seems like house prices will go up. So, what should be done about house prices? Therefore, I hope you all clearly define why you want to buy a house. Is it for investment or because you want some economic stability by owning a house? Even if it's for living purposes, I recommend you just buy it. Take out a loan if needed. But I don't want to recommend that because the Supreme Court said owning a house is everything for the middle class. So, what should you do?

Even if you buy a house, think from an investment perspective. For example, even if you live in your own home, it would be nice if the house price continues to rise after you buy it, right? Make sure to ask that question. So, when you buy a house at the current price, will it actually go up? Will it be able to rise? Your thoughts will change. If you think it will go up, even if there is a correction, since you bought it and live there, eventually, even if it drops, it may recover. And then, when you buy and live in that house, there is the joy of living there, isn't there? There is no need to move, there is joy in living in that area, enjoying education, or being close to work. You should buy for those reasons. It's not about buying this to hit the jackpot. So, be clear about this.

Do you know why I need a house? Quickly, I want to buy a house cheaply and live there without knowing much about houses. It would be nice to live in my own house. So, you need to make an effort now. You should also read the market changes and understand them. As I mentioned earlier, I don't care about that. So, don't read the newspaper or watch the news, just talk about buying a house within your budget. However, I don't recommend the latter. Because even if I bought a house, which is a major asset, if the house price keeps dropping, is it good just because the neighborhood is good and the air is good? It's difficult. So, even when buying a house, I hope you see it as an investment. No, this is not about investing, it's a different story. Seeing it as an investment makes a difference, right? So, what kind of

Do you ever wonder why investors are not buying now? Oh, you might not think like that. Right, right. Why are people who invest now trying to sell their houses instead? If you think about this once, your actions could change a bit. And another thing is that opportunities always arise. You can always change your mind at any time. Therefore, I want to emphasize that you should never rush, especially now when the market volatility is very high. Interest rates are rising, but as you mentioned earlier, investment demand doesn't seem high now. Right, interest rates are rising, why is the economy not good, and the situation is not good, not only in our country but globally. Europe is lowering interest rates first, but the economy is not doing well. However, even though the economy is not doing well, interest rates are rising.

It's not like you should hurry and borrow money just because it's available. Right, that's correct. Real estate is very difficult and complicated to understand. The key point is, my judgment is crucial in assessing the situation. Whether it's about interest rates going up, or taxes being lowered, or giving out many loans, thinking that now is the opportunity, that kind of judgment should not be made. So, what's important is to consider your own situation first. Therefore, it's essential to keep an eye on the changes while looking at apartments that you want to live in or invest in, and those that you can purchase affordably. Yes, that's right. But it seems like now is the time to buy a home, as some comments suggest. There are also comments about the ups and downs of the housing market. It's interesting to see how the market fluctuates like this.

At the end of 2022, if house prices start to drop, what will people say? They might say, Oh, because house prices are dropping even more, I won't buy a house. But if they say prices are going up, then demand will increase, more will be sold, and that's why I want to ask those of you who mentioned earlier. I would like to ask once if you still have the same mindset even if house prices fall. Did you ever think that people were buying because prices were rising and you were emotionally swayed when making decisions? What is the basis for saying that now is the time to buy a house? If you had the same mindset when house prices fell, why didn't you buy then, and why do you want to buy now? If you suddenly have money and want to buy, reconsider if it's because you're emotionally driven. It's really psychologically challenging, isn't it?

If you don't buy it, you might think you can't go there if it suddenly jumps up. But why don't you buy it when it's about to drop? If you say that, you might drop. So, that's why. So, when I talk about this, it's difficult. It's similar to a hospital. When we are sick, we don't go to a lecture; we have one-on-one counseling. Lectures can only say things like, You should eat well and exercise a lot. The situation of each store is different because the living area, budget, and everything else are different. Therefore, I cannot tell you everything unilaterally. I can only talk about health. But from a health perspective, now is not the time to buy a house. Right, got it. Yes, I understand. I want to hear more, but our time is limited now.

I brought it today and it was fun to listen to. When I hear about real estate, it is related to psychology, and various factors such as economic and interest rate situations need to be considered one by one. But now, we can only talk about policies. The reason the current market is shaking and moving a lot is that the impact of policies is significant. They are loosening loans, loosening policies, removing all taxes, and relaxing various regulations. Even though the housing prices have not dropped significantly, the government that has lifted regulations on a large scale like this has never been seen before. It's a conservative government, but there is an interesting point. Even though they have loosened regulations significantly, the housing prices are not rising significantly. Hmm, why is that? Why? This will be discussed in the next session. Oh, no, it feels like it's going to be a long debate.

You're doing well. Now, let's listen to the CEO's words carefully, and next, we will continue to hear more about the following story.

[박정호의 핫스팟] "'부동산 정보' 왜곡 많다" 이광수 대표가 밝힌 집 구매 시 눈여겨봐야 할 관점은? "무리는 No!"

채널에 가입하여 혜택을 누려보세요.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UClAfLVQYZSLrMAQQ_SXPVZw/join


오마이TV

The Psychological Impact of Housing Market News

The current housing market is causing anxiety for those without homes, leading to a rush to take out loans and buy houses as prices rise.

However, this situation of increasing demand driven by loans is likely to be temporary, as sustained demand will decrease as prices rise.

Meanwhile, experienced homeowners and investors are hesitant to buy in the current market, leading to an increase in selling volume and indicating a potential upcoming correction.

The Impact of Changing Real Estate Policies on Housing Market

Real estate policies are fluctuating, causing a cycle of buying and selling for multiple house owners.

The talk of abolishing real estate taxes and decreasing tax rates is stimulating property owners and driving up prices.

The offer of lower interest rates is encouraging borrowing and house purchases, but the fluctuating market is causing uncertainty for buyers.

The changing policies are creating a sense of urgency to buy, but the fluctuating housing prices are impacting the decision-making process.

The Volatility of Real Estate Market Trends

The decision to buy or rent a house should be carefully analyzed rather than rushed into, as the real estate market is unpredictable.

The fluctuation of house prices is not solely influenced by interest rate cuts, but also by supply and demand dynamics.

The media and experts often make inconsistent predictions about real estate market trends, leading to distorted information for potential buyers.

It's important to clearly define your reasons for wanting to buy a house, whether for investment or personal stability.

Market changes and the potential for housing prices to rise should be carefully considered before making a purchase.

Despite the financial aspects, the joy of living in your own home and its practical benefits should also be taken into account when making the decision.

The Complexities of Current Real Estate Investment

Investment demand is low despite rising interest rates and available loans, urging caution in making rushed decisions.

The fluctuating housing market and emotional influences on decision-making are highlighted, questioning the basis for the current push to buy a home.

Psychological challenges and the importance of reevaluating motivations for purchasing a house are emphasized in the face of market volatility.

The Complexity of Real Estate Investment Timing

The timing of real estate investment is difficult to determine and can be compared to seeking medical advice.

It is not the right time to buy a house from a health perspective.

The current real estate market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to a conservative government's unprecedented loosening of regulations.