Intel and Qualcomm: M&A Trends in AI Industry

Intel's transformation amid AI investment trends signals a promising future for strategic mergers and acquisitions.

### M&A Trends and AI Investments: Insights on Intel, Qualcomm, and Market Dynamics
* 🗞 On Monday morning, the discussion centered around Qualcomm's potential deal with Intel, highlighting Intel's **long history and ongoing transformation** since its founding in 1968.
* 🔍 The speculation around Intel's attractiveness to investors like Apollo is rooted in the **long-term infrastructure investments** necessary in the AI sector, which require **patience for future returns**.
* 📈 M&A activity has notably increased following a downturn in 2022 and 2023, with strategic players becoming **more proactive in pursuing growth opportunities**.
* 💰 Recent developments, such as Blackstone Vista Equity's **$8 billion take-private offer** for Smart XI, illustrate the growing interest in software companies with **strong long-term revenue potential**.
* 🔄 The conversation also touched on the likelihood of **mergers and asset carve-outs** as companies adapt to the pressures of the **AI-driven market landscape**.
* 🌍 As geopolitical stability improves in 2025 and 2026, the expectation is for a **surge in M&A activity**, driven by both **strategic combinations** and **activist investor interests**.
* ⚖ The current environment requires **careful navigation of global antitrust regulations**, with advisors and corporations preparing **contingencies for potential deal disruptions**.
* 🔗 Ultimately, while the future of specific deals remains uncertain, the momentum in **AI investments and M&A activity** signals a **transformative period ahead**.

When I woke up on Monday morning, I was still recovering from the weekend where I was recovering from Friday in a headline where one of the biggest chip makers, Qualcomm. It's reported we're going for Intel in this environment. Does that deal happen? Well, you probably won't be surprised that I'm not going to comment specifically on the deal. But I would say Intel has a storied history dating back to 1968. They've got a collection of phenomenal assets. The company is clearly going through a transformation. Pat and his team have been pretty clear in the plans they have outlined, including some significant CapEx reduction. What I would say is I'm not surprised that there's speculation around a number of interested parties whether that be strategic or whether that be private equity, who is looking to invest quite meaningfully across the whole artificial intelligence ecosystem, which we've already seen and we've already seen Apollo obviously work with Intel.

as well, that neither Intel nor Qualcomm commented on that reporting. And the other piece of reporting was Apollo, which has an existing relationship with Intel and again, strategic in the sense that they had co-invested in a specific project. Why isn't Intel attractive to a name like Apollo? It is a duration bet. It's infrastructure, you know, in the world of AI. It's building something physical and waiting for the payoff later. Yeah. Look, I think this is long-term generational investment. Funds like Apollo take an extremely long-term view beyond the frankly, the more of a short-term nature of the public markets. And when we look at M&A and the trends that we've seen over the last year, M&A activity is up quite meaningfully off to very low years in 2022 and 2023. And we're seeing strategics much more active, right? Siti advised on AMD and ZTE systems. We advised on IBM and Hashed record.

So not as transformational necessarily as Intel as we're talking about, but we're definitely seeing strategics be more proactive with as it relates to growth, vertical adjacencies. What we've seen public equity, private equity most active year to date is on dislocated public market valuations. What we haven't seen so far is the huge number of private companies with high mark, high watermark valuations in 2021 starting to come to market, but time results in valuation compounding, and that's where we do have high expectations for 2025 and 2026. And it's already happening. Phil today news of one of the biggest take privates in the software area. We've got Blackstone Vista Equity making an $8 billion take private offer to a company called Smart XI. Is that the sort of software long term revenue that they want to be digging into? Where do you see other opportunities in the take private field?

Yeah, I think Caroline, that's exactly spot on. We anticipate that we'll see more of this. You know, I think that artificial intelligence embedded on two years of data points in enterprise software is going to start to become really, really interesting. When we think about the first quarter of this year, the A.I. investment boom, if you will, focused on hardware, focused on chips, where and actually we saw a weakness in software. That weakness driven by a diversion of enterprise funds towards AI. But now we're starting to look forward. We've got more data points and we're starting to see a pickup in activity for enterprise software with embedded AI and how that can really be a catalyst for enterprise. So I think you're spot on. I think we'll see a lot more of this in 2025 and 26, and we'll start to see that private supply come to market as well, which is held off for now because

companies were very well capitalized. Private equity hasn't had to do anything. But now there is some pressure around AI, and I think we'll see a more vibrant sell side as well as an active buy side that sort of pigeonholes the positive side of making deals and taking private. There's the negative side of stressed assets. I mean, almost Intel might be that story, but we're looking today at Liberty Broadband, of course, key billionaire Malone trying to piece together some of his stressed streaming and cable assets. I'm looking at Liberty, broadband, and charter communications seemingly getting toward some sort of merger deal here. Are we going to see more of that mergers because they have to to survive because of industry pressure? Look, I think you'll see combinations for sure. I also think you'll see companies looking to carve and split and break out very valuable assets as well. There's no doubt we're in a moment of

time driven by A.I., which is causing corporations to look and reflect about how they're going to crystallise and maximise the valuation for their companies that can result in adjacent combinations, but it can also result in illumination of value through carve outs, through split offs. You know, we've not talked about activism, but, you know, we think this will be a theme that activists will focus on over the next couple of years as well. We're definitely going to go through change and and we're going to go through change through a greater sense of certainty on the geopolitical. This year has been a year of transition, more elections than we've ever seen in the past. Obviously, we've got a big one coming up. We will have a lot greater certainty on both the macro and the geopolitical when we get into 25 and 26. So, yeah, I believe we're going to see

more activity for a host of reasons. You mentioned AMD and ZTE. What was the other one that you mentioned that you advised on? There was IBM and Hoshiko. What is unique to both of those is they got done. And so I know you won't comment on Intel and Qualcomm, the idea of but in the context of what happens in November. Antitrust. Yeah. You know in this environment you do deals of that scale on paper, Intel and Qualcomm proceed well. The data is going to show a mixed bag of results. Right. We also advised on the Broadcom VMware deal, which went through obviously Microsoft acquisition went through. But there are examples of deals that haven't gone through. What it means is just look, there's a lot of focus, a lot of preparedness that's going on early on with advisors and corporations in terms of how certain can we be. With regard to global antitrust decisions, Citi's well positioned there.

we're operating in 160 countries. It gives us a good global spotlight on how regulatory bodies are going to react. But you're right. All you can do is build in contingencies early on in case deals break. But it can be a distraction when, you know, M&A is announced and it takes 12, 18, 24 months to complete.

Qualcomm Approaches Intel: Where Tech M&A Is Headed

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Intel's Transformation and Speculation of a Qualcomm Deal

Intel is undergoing a transformation and has a storied history since 1968, with significant CapEx reduction plans.

There is speculation about interested parties, including private equity, investing in the artificial intelligence ecosystem, with Apollo having a strategic relationship with Intel.

M&A activity has increased recently, with strategics becoming more active in the market.

Proactive Growth Strategies and Take Private Opportunities

Strategic companies are becoming more proactive in pursuing growth and vertical adjacencies.

Public and private equity have been active in dislocated market valuations, with high expectations for private companies to come to market by 2025 and 2026.

The recent $8 billion take private offer by Blackstone and Vista Equity for Smart XI highlights the growing interest in software with long-term revenue potential, and there is an anticipated increase in similar activities in the future, driven by AI's impact on enterprise software.

The Impact of AI on Corporate Mergers and Acquisitions

AI is creating pressure on companies, leading to a more active buy and sell side in the market.

Mergers and asset carve-outs are expected as companies strive to maximize their valuations and survive industry challenges.

Activism is anticipated to be a major theme in the coming years, driving corporate changes and restructuring.

The speaker has advised on several high-profile deals, including AMD, ZTE, IBM, Hoshiko, Broadcom, and VMware.

While some deals have successfully gone through, others have faced challenges, highlighting the mixed results in the current antitrust environment.

Citi's global presence in 160 countries allows for a strategic focus on regulatory reactions, and the importance of building contingencies early on is emphasized to manage potential deal disruptions.