Stock Market Analysis: September Rate Cut Expectation and Sector Insights

The current expectation for a rate cut in September has significantly increased, with a high probability of it happening, driven by various factors and market trends.

### Korean Stock Market: September Rate Cut Expectation, Leading Sectors, and Trading Strategies
* 📉  The expectation for a rate cut in September has now increased to around **70.8%**, with various factors such as President Biden's actions and the trend of **long-term government bond yields** contributing to this view.
* 🏭  New factories and clusters created in the U.S. through the IR bill and other support measures are expected to drive **sustainable job creation and economic growth**.
* 💰  When employment becomes active, **disposable income increases and people spend more**, making it difficult to **control inflation easily**.
* 📈  The market is currently in a **circulation trading phase**, with the index showing **minimal decline** and **strong foreign buying pressure**.
* 🔋  Second-generation batteries and other new sectors are expected to emerge as major industries, but it is crucial to **wait for clear numerical data** to support these trends.
* 🚗  In the automotive sector, major manufacturers such as Hyundai and Kia should be **prioritized**, while in the semiconductor sector, switching to common stocks of large-cap companies like Samsung Electronics is **recommended**.
* 🎢  Market conditions are expected to continue to fluctuate, so it is important to **adjust weights and respond to changing trends**.
* 🎓  The unique advantage of the class lies in **analyzing sectors, learning how to approach them, and studying interested stocks together** to lead the market effectively.

The expectation for a rate cut in September has now increased. However, when the rate cut actually happens, if we perceive it as an economic slowdown, wouldn't it turn out to be negative? In the stock market, it seems like this perspective is gradually rising these days. That's correct. That's why, in reality, news that leads to a bad is good situation is now coming out. As you mentioned, in fact, employment should be strong for the economy to thrive. When the economy is activated, prices go up. However, as mentioned earlier, the situation is now turning towards a bad scenario. But the good thing is, you don't need to worry too much because, as I mentioned earlier, you need to consider the new factories being created in the U.S. stock market. We need to think about various aspects starting from the IR bill, tax benefits, and support, which have been provided.

Starting from semiconductors, many factories, including second batteries, are being built in the United States. This means that there is a high probability that the United States will enter a phase where new employment continues to increase. So, it is not easy for employment itself to be completely destroyed because it is not easy for employment to collapse completely in the process of creating new factories and clusters that can create jobs. On the contrary, when employment becomes active, disposable income increases as mentioned earlier, and then people spend more. This means that it is difficult to control inflation easily. Therefore, if interest rate cuts are made, what you should think about first is not the economy breaking down, but how many times interest rates will be raised.

I think it's more important to consider this. First of all, if you look at the market outlook, this year, it's twice. Currently, it has expanded to twice, and next year, the frequency is very high, more than four times. This is now a factor that the market is looking at when the inflation rate drops by 2% that the Fed is looking at. However, as mentioned earlier, if new jobs are created and businesses are activated, especially in the transformer sector, you need to think about it. Infrastructure investment is a long-term process and is driven by information. So, if employment driven by information is strong, it means it's sustainable. Then, even if inflation is increasing, can we continue to raise interest rates in this flow?

It is quite necessary to consider whether the scenario is correct. Therefore, rather than focusing on the breakage of the market, you should pay attention to the number of this and that. In fact, the second of this year is not showing such strong figures. Looking at it from the perspective of the Fed Watch, if you take a look at this screen, the figure isn't very high. Even until yesterday, it was around 72% when only the schedule until yesterday was checked, but now it has dropped to the 70% range. Therefore, the current perception is that there will be an interest rate cut in September, which is very high at 70.8%. With this level, it practically means that it will almost certainly happen. Next, there are various factors that can lead to this. After the TV debate, there has been a significant increase in anxiety about President Biden. That's why.

I believe that the current president is making a lot of moves to boost the stock market and appeal to his supporters. If we look at it from that perspective, if he doesn't take action in September, there won't be much time left until November. Therefore, it wouldn't make much sense. Also, doing it in July is not ideal as the inflation index is just starting to drop now. So, it's a bit ambiguous to do it now, and November is also uncertain. Consequently, September seems inevitable. Therefore, in September, at least one rate cut is becoming a strong possibility. However, in December, the rate is currently around 46.2%, but in reality, if it stays between 42% and 46%, it could easily shift towards not making any changes. In fact, since the beginning of the year, think about it, at the beginning of the year, the Fed Watch.

When I look at 2, the interest rates that can be adjusted from the beginning of the year until March were very high, more than %, right? So, thinking that it will go below % twice a year with the current %, personally, I think the market is running too many hopeful circuits. Therefore, if the number goes down, I think tech stocks might come out once. However, despite that, the reason for taking a long position at this point is because in September, President Biden's actions will remain very strong. And as I mentioned before, the process where Yellen is loosening money behind the scenes is still ongoing. Among the schedules for this week, we really need to carefully examine the 30-year bond and the 10-year bond.

I think it will be possible because recently, there has been a very strong demand for long-term government bonds, so the market's bond yields are really different. For example, the 30-year bond rate, which was 4.8% last time, has now ended at around 4.2%. This indicates that the government bond auctions are in good shape. When it comes to government bonds being popular, it means that money is being released, and liquidity is increasing. You need to see how long this trend will continue. Recently, even short-term bonds, like 4 weeks and 8 weeks, have lower rates compared to before, resulting in contracts being signed. This shows that not only short-term bonds but also long-term bonds are experiencing a strong demand for government bonds. So, if such plays continue, it is likely that a quite good market will be created until September.

I think it might not be there, but from then on, you need to think in various ways. We need to pay more attention to those directions, and this week, we need to focus a bit more on those indicators. Please remember that. Today, the defense sector showed a good flow. The sector, which had been rising well for a while, is now experiencing some adjustments. Whether the sector is moving again or if it should be seen as a temporary technical rebound, there seems to be different interpretations. Yes, that's right. In fact, because each company had its own issues today, it could be quite confusing. However, I am looking at it from a long-term perspective. Since November last year, the market has been rising based on export data, but so far, the changes have been concentrated in industries where foreign investment was focused.

There is no such thing as a strong change in foreign supply from that side, such as a change in ranking or a huge sudden change in the total amount of net purchases, so at this point, it can be viewed sufficiently from the perspective of the buyer. Today, specifically, there was some movement in the defense industry. In fact, the defense industry has been taking a break from trading recently, but the defense industry stock prices have been historically high, and they have received a lot of orders in the first half of this year. Therefore, the situation where the performance period order data and industrial growth are visible. Even if a ceasefire is declared, defense policy funds will continue to increase, so the trend of orders is expected to be maintained for a while. So, in that sense, defense is actually not bad at all.

So far, everyone knows that it has been continuously rising for quite a long time, and that's the problem. Therefore, unless there are specific triggers like the announcement of a new contract or some events like the President or high-ranking officials making some statements or movements, causing fluctuations, the stock prices have been showing a slightly stagnant trend. However, today, due to the momentum of attending the NATO meeting, the defense sector has moved together. It can be seen in the case of the shipbuilding industry as well. Recently, the shipbuilding industry has been closely related to the defense sector, leading to initial concerns about supply and demand. Additionally, today, Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries has won a new contract worth nearly 5 trillion won in the defense sector. Furthermore, the ammonia ship is still being discussed continuously.

It's happening, so basically, there are talks about it. In June, historically, the amount of orders was low. You should consider what has been received so far. The docks are already full, so there is no place to enter now. As a result, orders are not coming in. When there is room in the dock, orders flood in massively. So, if you look at Hyundai Mipo Dockyard these days, you can understand it a bit. When the shipbuilding industry was doing very well, this company had some short-term one-off costs and faced some unfavorable trends. Recently, they have received a huge number of orders for PC 3, so the cycle is turning rapidly now, and the stock price has risen significantly from its lowest point. Therefore, the shipbuilding industry is actually in a very good situation. The performance has turned around, and the shipbuilding sector continues to rise steadily. So, the shipbuilding industry is doing very well.

It's okay, and in terms of supply and demand aspects, industries that have been continuously coming in, so the industries that rose today mostly gained momentum at specific trigger points. You can see that there was no supply-related departure. The same goes for transformers. In the case of transformers, LS Electric released an upward target price report of 225,000 KRW. Also, companies like Hyosung Jungmok have now disclosed new contracts. So, this momentum continues to break through, and as mentioned before, the cycle for transformers is very long. In the energy and power sector, there won't be a price increase in the gas sector this time. So, discussions on energy-related issues are ongoing, and alternative energies are being generated.

When that happens, you may need another transformer. You should consider that such a cycle is continuing. Therefore, today's industrial group that has risen is made up of companies with supply continuity in specific situations. Conversely, some financial stocks that were strong today recently saw a significant profit-taking. In the semiconductor sector, Samsung Electronics had a gap up and rose by around 1%, closing at 0.34%. However, there were some cooling-off trends in the semiconductor sector as well. But for the rest of the sectors, as I mentioned earlier, when there is a strong correction in those three groups of stocks, the others were very strong. So, you can see the market shifting from one side to the other, creating a grinding atmosphere. Rather, in the current situation where the market is expanding from a circulation trading perspective, the index's decline is minimal.

When you look at the fact that it has come out and today's supply, oh, if you see that foreign buying pressure continues to come in both futures and spot markets, I mentioned before that when the cumulative foreign futures exceed 2 trillion, a new horizon opens. At that time, I strongly emphasized Samsung Electronics, and now, after surpassing 2 trillion this time, there is already 1.5 trillion coming in, a significant amount of funds, and during this period, more than 2 trillion of foreign spot have also come in. So, in terms of supply, it is maintained very strongly. So, if you actually look at the supply today, Samsung Electronics and Samsung Electronics preferred shares hold almost more than half, so there was hardly any consideration for a significant market decline. Therefore, some semiconductor stocks are taking a break.

In the industry where politics are big in their own way, I think it might be a bit inappropriate to interpret the market today by turning the circulation of stocks and making a profit on the volume. If we define this market as a circulation market, the trading method may change a bit. In a circulation market, it would be better to sell at a good price when it rises, and then when the next sector goes up, it goes down. So, should we consider that there is no leading stock right now? Well, I think there is not just one leading stock. In other words, as they say in broadcasting, it's like a whack-a-mole game. I think of five moles: semiconductors, automobiles, finance, shipbuilding, and toilets, including value-ups, and then two more like kimchi.

The reason I put a strong buy on cosmetics and groceries is that while cosmetics have been very strong in terms of sales in the short term, foreigners have entered the market quite ambiguously. Therefore, it's ambiguous to put it as a main industry, but the export data is good, the industry is growing, and in terms of PR, there is still a lot of room. Especially in the case of groceries, they have increased a lot, but you might think they have increased a lot, but if you look at companies like Sajo Group, their PR is only five to six times higher, but the industry has increased by 14 times. For food, it's at 22 times level. In that sense, there is still room left. That's why today, Sajo-Daerim's target price is set at 160,000 won. So, if you look at it that way, it continues to steadily rise. However, in terms of supply and demand now, it's a bit weak, so I'm putting in kimchi.

So, the market is currently being driven by 5G plus 2, but from my perspective, I believe some will drop out from this area. And there are attempts being made for new sectors like second-generation batteries to enter the market. Basically, for other industries to enter, what are the core of the seven industries I mentioned earlier? Data comes out. The companies with clear numbers, with sales hitting 2 trillion, are showing growth in their industries. Most of the securities firms are calling for long positions in these industries. However, in the rest, such as the representative examples of new entrants like bio and second-generation batteries, there are too many stocks where the numbers by stock are not coming out, so there are many developmental issues.

Momentum-wise, it seems like there is a need to play a bit, so I think it's coming. Therefore, I am certain that new industries will emerge as new two major sectors, so you need to wait for the numbers to come out now. So, you should watch a bit more closely to respond to that part. On the other hand, if the numbers don't come out, it means that foreign investors are not entering. In the long run, from a trading perspective, you should approach it from a perspective of responding to a shortage of supply. If you don't respond from an investor's perspective, there is a high chance of getting caught off guard. So, I think it's really okay to adjust the weight based on the moving industries and various issues or momentum now, but if you pull this into a medium to long-term portfolio, it will probably.

I almost believe that breaking phenomena will occur, so you need to be able to measure the weight of momentum to some extent. When you are not sure about such things, when the short-term moving averages break, be sure to adjust the weights. By doing so, you can respond sufficiently, so those who have such trading skills should play in the market now. If you can't do that, if you don't know how to do that, it's better to wait and see. It's right to keep following the existing leaders. When it drops, buy, when it drops, buy, and when it comes close to the recent high, sell more than half of the quantity and wait for the new high. If it breaks again, sell again. You should continue to put in and out like this, and basic analysis is required in that area.

No, you don't need to do technical analysis. That's why it may seem a bit slow to do it that way, but I think it's much more advantageous in terms of profitability. Every time I appear on this channel, I mentioned that it's focused on leading stocks. By focusing only on that, you must have been outperforming the market index. So, you might think it's late, but if these five main industries collapse, the index will collapse as well. In other words, it means everything else will collapse if you buy something else. So, as much as possible, within the leading stocks and with the supply trends, even if there is some pressure, since the industry is showing growth, slowly adjusting the weight and expanding the weight, you can also collect stocks by industry sector. If you don't do it this way, uh.

After opening your eyes, can you trade Kobe? Of course, those with good trading skills will now see the market rising. You have to play really hard, but what I'm saying is that during trading hours, it's a bit difficult for those who also have a full-time job to respond properly. It would be helpful to keep in mind that I'm giving this advice with those people as a reference. Yes, considering the aspect of the numbers, currently, in relation to the secondary battery sector, the worst performance is expected. Today, LG also released their earnings, but how should we interpret it? Should we apply expectations for the future or wait until the numbers completely turn around and then expect a trend of increase? Actually, the right thing to do is to check the numbers and then enter. However, from what I see, by the time you finish checking the numbers for the secondary battery, the stock price will have...

I think it will go up by 50% because secondary batteries are a real emperor industry that the whole nation has been interested in nationwide. Therefore, I think the betting will be quite strong. However, despite that, looking at the chart from a technical perspective, I think it would be better to wait a little longer for a reversal to occur. We need to break through the previous box's bottom line to see a possible trend change. So, if you say that my trading skills are really outstanding, then of course, if Tesla continues to rise consecutively from now on, there is a high expectation leading up to the earnings on August 8th, including robot taxis. Such trends are expected to be maintained for some time.

If you are investing in your home, there is enough momentum play right now. However, if you get caught off guard here and fail to respond, you might be troubled once again. So, you must keep that in mind. Therefore, for those who are not able to respond in real-time, I think it would be better to watch until the stock price rises more than now and clearly surpasses the previous band. When such a situation arises, I think it would be better to observe at that time. Understood. Now, when we look at storage stores, what will be the next step? Of course, we have to wait and see. However, for various rational reasons, we can speculate where it will be. Where do you think it will be? Yes, when I appeared before, I mentioned focusing on Samsung Electronics in the semiconductor sector. For now, I think Samsung Electronics will go to the 90,000 won range, so I'm still a bit cautious.

I think it would be good at two o'clock. I rather think it's a time to focus on cars and finance a little bit now. Oh, I'm hosting a program about Hyundai vehicles, and there are talks that Hyundai is not receiving enough attention in terms of value. Yes, that's correct. The export data for June was not as positive. However, in the case of cars, whenever the export data was bad, there was always a strong adjustment like this. If you look here, these lines were in shambles when the export data was not good, so it might move similarly this time. On the other hand, if you look at the car data released today, it created record-breaking trends in India. But the focus of the car industry is now on the IPO in India and the momentum due to factory operations in the United States.

The situation is getting redder. In the short term, there was a slight pullback compared to the high point. Even now, it has dropped a few percent, so in this situation, if it consolidates a bit at the bottom, I think it's quite okay. So, if we think of this part as a short-term consolidation zone at the bottom, I think it's fine. Therefore, if you confirm and approach this part with a clear support, it seems okay. Otherwise, if you start viewing from here to here as a divided buying perspective, it should be fine. Although financial stocks fell today, leading stocks like A did not break away. Of course, in the current situation, if it cannot rise by about 3-4% until the next trading day, the slope may be slightly bent, leading to a short-term pullback. Nevertheless, the pattern of higher highs is being formed, and as you mentioned, in the 3rd and 4th quarters now.

If we look at the part where the government policy on value-up is coming out, such as ETF tracking, it is said that there may be additional upward trends. In particular, in the securities market, the target prices for these stocks are now over 100,000 won, with two already out. So, if we look at that aspect, I think there could be sufficient continuity. And in Korea, the two industries with the strongest foreign investment are semiconductors and automobiles. When we attach the concept of value-up, it fits perfectly into these two industries. Therefore, assuming that there is no change in that area, I still think that there needs to be some pressure on foreign investment, and in that sense, I believe that focusing on industries where foreign investment is most concentrated, such as semiconductors, automobiles, and finance, would be appropriate. understood. If we target this sector.

When you look at Hyundai and Kia, as well as other major car manufacturers and then divide them into automotive parts suppliers, you can see that the major car manufacturers should definitely be considered a higher priority. However, in the case of Hyundai, the common stocks are not bad either because when the dividend yield goes up, the attractiveness of dividends is highlighted. So, in the case of Hyundai, I think it is right to focus on the common stocks. Especially in the case of Samsung Electronics, the disparity rate is high in the preferred stocks of Samsung Electronics. You can switch to the common stocks of Samsung Electronics. When the insurance improves, passive funds do not flow into preferred stocks. So, if you think that the common stocks will rise, you might face a big loss. Therefore, if you are not planning to hold on for many years for dividends, in the case of Samsung Electronics, the common stocks are definitely much better.

I will emphasize the fragility aspect a bit, and if we divide it into major companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, Hyundai, Kia, and small and medium-sized companies, should we focus on the large-cap stocks when targeting this sector, or is it better to go for small and medium-cap stocks to maximize profitability? Speaking from a 25% standpoint, large-cap stocks account for 20% and small-cap stocks for 5%, yes, that's how I would put it. Understood. Yes, you have probably attended many lectures and checked various techniques, and I believe you have applied them. But are the results satisfactory? This could be the unique advantage of our class. Why should we analyze sectors, and when we go to a certain sector, how should we approach it initially? This leads to various ways of thinking, depending on the sector.

I will tell you the key points. Representative Kim analyzes commercial aspects like this, and various techniques for finding stocks there, and I will explain each one in detail so that you can aim for the effects accordingly. I will guide you to study together on the interested stocks, so that you can lead the market sufficiently. We will make good use of the live sessions. I will include questions that come up there and share the parts where I felt uncertain about trading. When inquiries come in, I will provide sufficient guidance. This will be the unique advantage of our class.

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Increasing Expectation for September Rate Cut

The expectation for a rate cut in September has significantly increased, leading to a growing perspective that a bad economy could be seen as good news for the stock market.

The focus is shifting towards the impact of new job creation and business activation on the economy, leading to a sustainable scenario and potentially impacting the decision to raise interest rates.

The current perception is that there will be an interest rate cut in September, with the likelihood very high at 70.

8%, driven by various factors including increased anxiety about President Biden.

President's Potential Impact on the Stock Market

The president's actions are likely to impact the stock market, with a potential rate cut in September.

The demand for government bonds is increasing, leading to greater liquidity and a positive market outlook until September.

The defense sector is experiencing fluctuations, with differing interpretations of its future movements.

The Current State of the Defense, Shipbuilding, and Transformer Industries

The defense industry is experiencing a high volume of orders, expected to continue despite a ceasefire, with a recent surge due to the NATO meeting and new contracts in the shipbuilding industry, leading to a significant turnaround in performance.

The shipbuilding industry has seen a rapid increase in stock prices and a surge in orders, with the demand expected to continue as the industry cycle turns around.

The transformer industry is also experiencing momentum, with companies like LS Electric and Hyosung Jungmok securing new contracts and breaking through upward target prices.

The energy and power sector is focused on ongoing discussions about energy-related issues and the generation of alternative energies, with no expected price increase in the gas sector.

The industrial group is rising, driven by companies with supply continuity, while some financial stocks are experiencing profit-taking.

Samsung Electronics saw a 1% increase, with strong foreign buying pressure in both futures and spot markets.

The market is currently in a circulation trading perspective, with a focus on selling at a good price when it rises in a circulation market.

Additionally, there is a strong buy recommendation for cosmetics and groceries, as the industry shows growth potential and room for expansion.

The Impact of Emerging Industries on the Market

The 5G plus 2 market is currently driving the industry, but some may drop out, while new sectors like second-generation batteries are attempting to enter.

Companies in the seven mentioned industries are showing significant growth, leading to recommendations for long positions from securities firms.

It is advised to closely monitor the emerging industries and adjust weight based on momentum for a medium to long-term portfolio.

Trading Advice for Those with Full-Time Jobs

It's challenging to trade effectively with a full-time job, so it's important to consider the impact of limited availability.

Despite the expected poor performance in the secondary battery sector, there is a strong belief in a 50% stock price increase due to high national interest.

However, it's advisable to wait for a trend reversal and breakthrough in the chart before making any moves.

Additionally, for those unable to respond in real-time, it's better to wait for the stock price to rise and clearly surpass the previous level before taking action.

Hyundai's Value and Performance in the Global Market

Hyundai is facing a lack of attention in terms of value, despite record-breaking car trends in India.

The focus is now on Hyundai's IPO in India and momentum from US factory operations, with a slight short-term pullback in the financial market.

The strongest foreign investment in Korea is in semiconductors, automobiles, and finance, suggesting a need to focus on these industries for foreign investment pressure.

Prioritizing Common Stocks Over Preferred Stocks in Major South Korean Companies

Major car manufacturers like Hyundai should be a higher priority for investment, especially focusing on common stocks when the dividend yield is high.

Similarly, in the case of Samsung Electronics, it is advisable to switch to common stocks from preferred stocks, particularly if the goal is not to hold for many years.

When targeting the South Korean sector, a mix of large-cap and small/medium-cap stocks can be considered, with a suggested allocation of 20% to large-cap and 5% to small/medium-cap stocks for maximum profitability.