I think we need to look at today's strategy briefing. Manager Yeongmin previously talked about POSCO International. The strategy briefing I highlighted for today is about POSCO Holdings. The reason I brought up POSCO Holdings is mainly for two things: steel and lithium phosphate. Even though it's not spinning positively, the lithium prices can't get any worse from here. With these two themes of steel and lithium, I brought up POSCO Holdings today. When you hear POSCO, you may immediately think of it, but when you actually look at the recent performance of POSCO Holdings, it seems necessary to clarify the concept. POSCO Holdings not only conducts its own business but also plays a major role in the entire POSCO Group. So, you can think of it as the holding company. If you look at the overall ownership structure,

At the top now is POSCO Holdings, and below that, there are many subsidiaries under it. So, in the picture, there are two main businesses. On the far left, there is POSCO, which is the old Pohang Iron and Steel Company we know, now engaging in non-listed steel business. And on the far right, there is the lithium business. They are operating the lithium business. There are also entities like POSCO RN, POSCO Lithium Solution, and so on. So, they are running two main businesses. On the other hand, POSCO International, POSCO Construction, POSCO Future M, and such companies each hold their own shares. In Korea, we don't give a premium to holding companies. So, in the past, even when POSCO Future M or POSCO International did well, they couldn't get a premium. Therefore, ultimately, the stock price of POSCO Holdings is very detailed.

To analyze, you need to consider the prices of steel and lithium at both ends and analyze Posco Holdings with these two. Well, if you look at it now, the first half performance is not good, and now everything is not good. The main reason is that there is a problem on the steel side. Will steel prices rebound in the first half? Instead of rebounding, they have continued to drag the bottom, showing a downward trend. The reason for this is that the prices of steel materials coming from China have fallen too much, so conversely, steel prices have also fallen together. If you look at the chart for a moment, after the outbreak of COVID-19 and the closure of factories in 2020, there was a slight increase in iron ore prices when they reopened in 2021. Then, through the stagnation of China's domestic demand, there has been a continuous weakness, and they tried to rebound once more at the end of 2023, but now...

As you can see in the graph, the iron ore price has dropped significantly. However, although I drew an arrow there, I believe that from the second half of this year, the iron ore price could rebound. The reason for the drop in steel prices like that in the first half of the year is mainly because China almost dumped their products like crazy. Other companies have even filed anti-dumping lawsuits against them because these Chinese guys are pushing their cheap products into the market. In the first half of this year, almost 30 to 40% of cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel products came from China, as we imported a lot from there. Why are they so cheap then? Why is China trying to push them out like this? First of all, their domestic demand is very weak. The construction industry is sluggish, they can't build new houses, so they have an oversupply of steel. They are trying to push it out cheaply, causing prices to drop.

First, the U.S. Biden, on August 1st, has imposed an additional 25% tariff on Chinese steel. So, before August 1st, they just poured out all the quantities in June and July. Now, as a result, steel prices have dropped, performance is not good, and POSCO Holdings' stock prices have fallen. It's almost coming to an end. China has poured out almost as much as they can, and now, looking at China's current situation, there are signs that they are trying to reduce production. Moreover, now they need to move towards environmentally friendly carbon neutrality in iron ore. So, using this as an excuse, China is now reducing imports significantly, thereby reducing the supply of steel and showing intentions to sway the world economy a bit. So, at this point, steel prices could rise, which could improve performance and lead to a rebound in stock prices in the second quarter.

Looking at the revenue, the operating profit is 1.85 trillion, with 750 billion from steel and 490 billion. Now, looking at these figures, within the operating profit of 700 billion, nearly 500 billion comes from steel, which means it's almost halved compared to the same period last year, nearly a decrease of over 50%. Therefore, although the stock price has dropped, there is improvement from weapons to steel. Earlier, in the business of POSCO Holdings, on the far right, there was a lithium business. We need to look at the price of lithium, but the lithium price is not good. However, not only the lithium price but also the nickel price, we have already mentioned that there is some increase in the supply for secondary batteries, and there is nowhere else to go but to talk about shelters. It has fallen enough to fall more, but there is nowhere else to fall. Because of the lithium price, there are two things together, saying it won't get worse, and there is nowhere else to fall. That's why, as mentioned earlier, like POSCO Future M, etc., secondary

Many battery companies' stock prices have dropped a lot. I wonder if these things have not been reflected, especially in the market this year. Another thing is that we need to pay a little more attention to raw materials. Typically, when the dollar weakens and the United States enters a period of interest rate cuts, raw material prices tend to fluctuate. There are many cases where mines become more attractive due to these fluctuations in raw material prices. If you look at the past, the dollar index and raw material prices are always inversely related. Of course, recently in 2023, raw materials and the dollar moved together, but once the US interest rates start to fall significantly and the dollar weakens, as in the late 1980s, when the dollar value plummeted, interest rates fell sharply, and the global financial crisis hit, didn't raw material prices soar instead?

In 2008, during the global financial crisis, when there were talks of the economic downturn and recession in the United States, the attractiveness towards mining areas for raw materials tends to rise instead. Also, there are issues related to resources and minerals. Posco Holdings has the Posco International's Myanmar gas field. Additionally, previously, there were lithium solutions overflowing in Posco Argentina's lithium mines. This indoor lithium mine was very attractive about two years ago, or maybe a year and a half ago, and it is still active. Furthermore, due to the reduction in lithium imports, it was decided that Posco Holdings would benefit from the lithium mines. Therefore, when there is attractiveness in raw materials like lithium mines and gas fields, steelmaking and Posco Holdings can gain attention once again. Finally, Vice President Harris, as expected, Vice President Harris Trade must come out for Posco Holdings.

I think we can catch our breath a bit. We can mainly see POSCO, Harris, and related stocks together. Therefore, I analyzed POSCO Holdings as a strategic stock today, focusing on the rebound issue of steel. This is where I will stop.

[작전] POSCO홀딩스 / 정철진의 작전 / 매일경제TV

매일경제TV는 매일경제신문은 물론 MBN, 매경닷컴 등 매경미디어그룹의 경제, 경영 금융, 증권 부동산, 창업 등 다양한 분야의 명품 콘텐츠를 제공함과 동시에 단순히 돈을 버는 것으로 끝나는 게 아니라 삶의 질을 높이는 방송이 될 것입니다. 

http://www.mktv.co.kr

mbnmoney2@gmail.com
