Bitcoin Market Analysis: Charts, Models, and Insights

The main subject is the Bitcoin market. The core insight is about key charts, market cycles, technical analysis, on-chain data, and Bitcoin miner revenue analysis.

### Analyzing the Bitcoin Market through Seven Key Charts
The video discusses the stock-to-flow chart and market cycles as the favorite key charts for analyzing the Bitcoin market. It also covers the RSI and moving average charts for technical analysis, along with three charts based on on-chain data, which is unique to Bitcoin. Additionally, a bonus chart providing valuable insights is presented at the end of the video.

### The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model and Price Expectations
The Bitcoin stock-to-flow ratio doubled from two to four, then from four to eight during the halving, which was crucial to its existence. There is a common misunderstanding that the stock-to-flow model failed because Bitcoin didn't reach $100,000 in 2021, but the model's expectation is for Bitcoin to overshoot the model line, with a potential future model line at $500,000, indicating a normal price range. This suggests that the range of the model is not as huge as some may think.

### Bitcoin Price Prediction Models and Their Variants
The stock-to-flow model has a wide range of implementations, with varying values and update frequencies. The 100K model was specifically created to counter an argument about the model's extrapolation based on limited data, while the stock-to-flow X cross-asset model incorporates data from other assets like gold, silver, and real estate. The base formula from the 2019 article is still being used today, despite the existence of different model variants.

### Bitcoin's Value and Market Predictions
The article discusses the potential value of Bitcoin, with one estimate suggesting it could reach $288,000 based on gold and silver. The author maintains a consistent model, projecting a $50,000, $500,000, and $4 million value for Bitcoin. Despite various events, the current direction of Bitcoin's price remains uncertain, as it continues to trade in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. The market cycle model is used to determine Bitcoin's phase, predicting an average price of $500,000 for this halving cycle and $4 million for the next.

### Analyzing Market Trends: RSI and Moving Averages
The speaker discusses the fluctuations in market cycles, particularly the shift between bull markets and distribution phases. They emphasize the importance of using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to analyze market trends, noting that for Bitcoin, the normal RSI range is between 40 and 90. The speaker also highlights the significance of the 200-week moving average in predicting market trends, pointing out its historical role as a support line in bear markets and its continuous upward trajectory.

### Bitcoin's Market Analysis and On-Chain Indicators
The Bitcoin market has experienced the worst bear market in history, but has now crossed the 200-day moving average and is on the rise, exceeding $38,000. The speaker uses unique on-chain data, such as the realized price, which is calculated using their own Bitcoin node data, providing insight into the weighted average price of all Bitcoins, with the two-year realized price currently at $50,000 and the five-month realized price at $666,000.

### Bitcoin Market Analysis
The short-term moving average of Bitcoin's price indicates the beginning of a bull market. The majority of Bitcoin holders are currently in a profitable position, with only 8% of all Bitcoins in a loss. Bitcoin miner revenue has halved after the recent halving in April, which is a significant point of interest in the current market.

### The Impact of Bitcoin Halving on Miner Revenue
Bitcoin's halving event cuts miner revenue, causing small miners to quit due to unprofitability. The industry has experienced a significant growth, with over $1 billion in monthly revenue for miners. The only way for mining revenue to recover is for the Bitcoin price to double, leading to a potential bottoming out and the start of a new bull market.

### Bitcoin Market Analysis: Insights from 7 Charts
* 📊 The stock-to-flow chart, a logarithmic model, shows Bitcoin's price movements in relation to its scarcity over time, with a model predicting a **$500K average for this halving cycle** and **$4 million for the next**.
* 🔄 The Bitcoin Market Cycles model indicates that Bitcoin is currently in the **early stages of a bull market**, with a history of **some variability during transition periods**.
* 📈 Traditional technical analysis charts, like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the 200-week moving average, show Bitcoin's price trends and momentum, with **RSI currently at 66** and the price **well above the moving average**.
* 🔗 On-chain data, including **realized price and realized return**, provide unique insights into the market, with the short-term realized price acting as a **support line in bull markets** and **92% of all Bitcoins currently in profit**.
* 💰 A new chart on Bitcoin miner revenue post-halving shows a **significant drop in revenue**, which historically recovers as Bitcoin's price doubles, potentially indicating a **bottom in June** and a **recovery in July**.
* 📉 "The only way for miners to recover mining revenue is for bitcoin price to **double**. So the number of new Bitcoins in a block **halves**, so the price has to double to keep the mining revenue the same. And that's what we're **waiting for**."
* 📈 "What's very important is that we see a bottom in the mining revenue from where it grows into the next bull market. So we see a bottom here after 2016. And here, the same thing after 2012 halving, there's a **bottom** and then, **boom**, the bull market starts."

PlanB Bitcoin Analysis August 2024

PlanB 100trillionUSD (2M Twitter followers), creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model.