National Amusements Deal: Implications for Media Industry Consolidation

The potential $1.75 billion deal for national amusement stake raises skepticism and legal concerns among non-voting shareholders and industry consolidation prospects under a new presidency.

### ViacomCBS Paramount Merger and Future Media Consolidation Predictions
* 💰  The rumored price point for the national amusement stake in Paramount is **$1.75 billion**, with non-voting shareholders expected to have half of their shares taken out at **$15 per share**.
* 🛒  Shari Redstone's deal with Skydance includes a **45-day shopping period** instead of requiring the approval of an independent committee, aimed at **avoiding litigation over taking a "sweetheart deal."**
* 🤝  The media industry is expected to undergo **significant consolidation** in the next four years, depending on the political landscape, with more favorable conditions under a **Republican administration**.
* 🎥  Despite the uncertainty, Laura Martin predicts that **YouTube will remain the top streamer**, followed by **Amazon Prime and the Disney Empire**, with Paramount potentially going to **Warner Brothers or being sold in pieces**.
* 🔮  Laura Martin believes that waiting for a potential change in the White House before making investment decisions in the media industry could lead to **better prices**.
* 🏞️  The current structure of Paramount's three-person committee is seen as ineffective, and the company has **lost around 70% of its value**.
* 📉  Due to the deal's history of being on and off, Laura Martin advises against buying ViacomCBS shares at the **current price of $11**.

We get hints from The Wall Street Journal that of a price point of $1.75 billion for the national amusement stake. Is that enough? And what does it mean for the non-voting shareholders? Right. So the rumors is that nonvoting shareholders in the second step would get half of their shares taken out at $15 a share, which is quite a bit higher than today's move, which means that Wall Street is skeptical this deal will go through, too. Otherwise, I think that gap would be narrower. So I think I think that skydance's look, two things changed in this deal compared to the deal Sherry walked away from a couple of weeks ago. One is it doesn't require the approval of the independent committee, but it all instead what she what she got was a 45 day shopping period. So in litigation, because she's going to get sued over this because she's getting better terms than public shareholders.

that when they get to court, where the public shareholders are suing her for taking a sweetheart deal from Skydance, she can say, Look, we shopped for 45 days. No one else stepped in at this price point or more, and therefore we didn't screw you over, public shareholders. So in that anticipation, the worry, the anxiety that Shari Redstone has that she will be taken to court, what do you think that 45-day shopping experience will garner in any way? Lori, you just have the viewpoint that no one's going to step forward. You know, I think most other companies would rather just buy Paramount and not give money to National Amusements to her. But I don't expect them to go away because, as you say, this saga is like the boy who cried wolf. I mean, this deal has been on and off at least four times that I can think of. So if I was somebody else, I wouldn't

stop trying to do deals.
And you saw the Warner headline today that Warner is thinking of trying to put
its streaming businesses together, specifically HBO Max, with Paramount
Plus, to try to create a bundle to combat the Disney bundle with Hulu.
And so that's a smart idea. So other business is going to get done
here while the fight for the top of who actually owns has controls, that entity
continues and potentially a sell-off of BET.
We were expecting that and senior management are looking to take that over
in some way. Laura So there are different parts of
the asset pile here. And yesterday we were all talking about
the rumor that Barry Diller was eyeing and of course previously had run the
Paramount movie part of the business. When you're looking at the share price
and you're saying at the moment it doesn't go all the way to potentially
$15 a share, that the voting, the non-voting B class would get.
What should they do if I'm an investor?

a significant investor in the Cosby
shares? What do I do at this moment?
So I would wait to see who's the president, United States, because is it
current? So the problem right now, the Biden
administration has really negative M&A people at the head of all these
agencies. But if we get a presidential switch,
this industry we're talking about right here, all needs to consolidate.
They all need to buy each other. There needs to be three competitors
where they can rip out costs. And Disney gets needs to get bought by
Apple. None of that consolidation can happen
under the Biden administration. But if we get a flipping presidency, I
would wait for that. And the day that happens, I think
they'll be massive consolidation in media over the next four years because
all those all the head of the DOJ will change.
The head of the FTC will change, the head of the FCC will change to a
Republican.

And I think they'll be far more sympathetic to allowing these the consolidation to occur, to cut costs. Laura, we love it because you bring the viewpoints. So who remains on top? Who eventually, in four years time, if we do indeed get a change in the White House, wins out, who survives? YouTube number one streamer Amazon Prime. Number two streamer. I think the Disney Empire. Number three streamer. Although I think Apple should buy Disney. And and I and I think these other ones I think peacock peacock can't buy CBS which Paramount owns but Warner Brothers can so maybe Paramount ultimately it doesn't go to Skydance because I'm sort of skeptical after their on and off all the time, then it should go in pieces to different people. I think if they waited to see what happened the election, they might be able to get a better price. But I understand that Cheri wants to get

this done.
She's got a lot of debt due. It's unclear she can pay unless she gets
this deal done precisely so she can't wait.
We all look to what's happening in Sun Valley.
Will a deal be announced this weekend, do you think?
And ultimately talk us through the next steps of your own research at this
point? Right.
So, you know, there's no Harvard Business School case ever that says 3a3
person committee is a better form of leadership than a single leader.
And that's what we have at Paramount. We have a three-person committee.
So really there's no management like there's no government, so it needs to
go. And they've just just destroyed like 70%
of the value. Oh well.
And that if Trump gets in and everybody's consolidating, it just took
the price, the worst possible price because it had to at Paramount.
But then I think we get a lot of

consolidation over the next four years,
and we end up at the end. If there's a Trump administration, we would
end up with three competitors, maybe four, including Apple and Amazon. I'm
sorry, Amazon and Comcast, Peacock, and Disney.
So what, $11? Do we buy?
And $11. No, I don't think you do.
I think they've gone on and off with this deal too many times.
So, no, I don't think you buy it here.

Paramount Shares Surge on Preliminary Deal With Skydance

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National Amusement Stake Price Point and Its Implications

The price point for the national amusement stake is rumored to be $1.

75 billion, with non-voting shareholders facing the potential buyout of half of their shares at $15 each.

This has led to skepticism on Wall Street about the deal going through, especially with the new 45-day shopping period introduced, aiming to address concerns about the deal's fairness to public shareholders in potential litigation.

Potential Consolidation of Streaming Businesses

Warner is considering merging HBO Max with Paramount Plus to compete with the Disney bundle.

There is a possibility of a sell-off of BET, and senior management is looking to take over.

The potential for consolidation in the media industry is dependent on a presidential switch, which could lead to significant changes in the leadership of regulatory agencies.

The Future of Streaming Services and Company Consolidation

The speaker predicts the ranking of streaming services, with YouTube, Amazon Prime, and Disney being the top contenders.

They also suggest that Apple should buy Disney and that other companies like Peacock and Warner Brothers may be involved in the consolidation.

The speaker criticizes the leadership structure at Paramount and discusses the impact of potential consolidation on the company.

Uncertainty about Investing in a Potential Merger

The potential merger may result in three or four major competitors in the next four years, including Apple, Amazon, Comcast, Peacock, and Disney.

However, the repeated back-and-forth nature of the deal suggests it may not be a wise investment at $11.