Investment Funds: Changes and Expectations for 2024

Investment expert predicts 10% withholding tax in funds after August 1st, advises caution and focus on low-risk assets.

### Turkish Investment Fund Tax Changes and 2024 Economic Outlook
* 📊 The current **7.5% tax exemption** on Turkish investment funds is expected to end, reverting to a **10% withholding tax** from August 1st.
* 🏦 Central Bank Deputy Governor Cevdet Akçay stated that **early rate cuts are not on the agenda**, signaling a **stable policy**.
* 🇺🇸 The outcome of the upcoming US elections, especially the potential for "**Trump 2.0**," is seen as a **key factor for global markets**.
* 🏛 The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates, particularly its **data-driven strategy**, will be closely monitored.
* 📉 The Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) is expected to face challenges in the next 5 months, with **some caution advised**.
* 💰 Recommended fund groups for the rest of 2024 include **money market funds, bond funds, and foreign equity funds**.
* 📈 Despite recent corrections, domestic equity funds have performed well in 2024, but **caution is advised for the future**.
* 🌍 The speaker emphasizes the importance of **individual risk profiles** in portfolio decisions, as there is **no one-size-fits-all approach**.

Good evening dear friends, Yücel Ferek here. Welcome to my channel, we are together in a new live broadcast with a new video today. I wanted to chat with you a bit, actually, to see the situation in investment funds. You know there was a tax exemption in an investment fund until July 31st, with a 7.5% withholding tax. Most likely, this exemption that started at the end of 2020 will come to an end, so we will face a period where there will be a 10% withholding tax in investment funds. After a long period, about 4 years, we will be together again. The arrival of this change was already expected. I assume that it was implemented as a transitional period from April 30th. At least, that's how I interpret it. An extension was made until July 31st, another exemption was granted. If this exemption is not extended, it means that we will return to a 10% tax rate after August 1st in investments.

Now, after making this determination in the funds, it is also beneficial to make an observation like this. We can see that the government's work, especially in terms of taxation, continues intensively. In order to ensure tax justice, there are many roads to be taken, many steps to be taken, but we see that actions are being taken faster regarding the taxes that need to be analyzed at their source and go into the state's treasury, as you have also seen. Therefore, I expect the withholding tax rate to be 10% after August 1st. I hope I am wrong, I hope there will be something that proves me wrong. However, I predict that there will be a consistency here, and we are actually expecting an alignment to be made in the withholding tax rate in deposits just like in investment funds. We will see on August 1st, we will follow the official gazette. However, how are we looking at the economy for the rest of the year, what kind of economic environment are we going to face, what opportunities are there, what threats are there, as I said, I wanted to have a little chat with you about this. In this regard, we are also preparing a presentation.

I have prepared. As usual, it will be a presentation where we will have a little mutual conversation and I will share my views with you. Now, we are looking at 2024 here. Friends, tomorrow we are finishing the 7th month of the year, July 31st. And at the end of these 7 months, actually, we saw an investment fund universe that provided returns in line with the conjuncture we foresaw at the beginning of the year. What did we say at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024? That is, we will experience a period where TL assets will be prominent, money market funds will be prominent, and risk-free returns will be prominent. I am in the group of investors who have the courage to move towards risky assets in TL-denominated assets. We also mentioned that there is potential in stocks, and you can include them in your portfolio as a position, but it is necessary not to let caution go and to diversify portfolios. When we look at the performance of the first 7 months, despite the correction movement in the last month, the best-performing fund group is still around 11,000.

We are talking about an index below 10,600. We are talking about an index that potentially has the downside of going below 10,000, so there our index stands out. More precisely, emphasizing domestic equity funds. In the background of thought, there was something like this: Friends, there were actually a lot of carrots that needed to be bought, and some of them happened, such as credit rating upgrades by rating agencies. Besides that, we also saw a radical change in reserves shifting to the positive side. In addition, we saw that the Central Bank will signal a stable policy in terms of interest rates both domestically and internationally, to both the domestic and foreign press, and to stakeholders, completely. However, what is also important is that the corporate discourse here needs to show a continuous stability, a continuous consistency. We have seen that this is important. Now, looking ahead to the remaining year, in the last 5 months, it seems like we will look at a slightly different conjuncture. We will look into the details of that. Now, together, how is the conjuncture leading us to 2024?

Let's see, when I was determining the beginning of this year in terms of making a comment about this year, I used an expression, saying 2024 is an election year. We did have an election in 2024, it was a local election, though, but in terms of its effects, it actually brought about a significant change. Currently, the weight of the ruling party that has been governing the country for a long time and the weight of the opposition are quite close in terms of voting potential. Towards the end of 2023 and in the first 3 months of 2024, we really foresaw the election. Actually, this led us to experience a process related to a radical change. Besides that, you know, one of the most important elections is the European Parliament elections, and especially in the elections in the Eurozone, we witnessed the rise of the radical right-wing and the quick reaction of what is actually referred to as the Democratic Left in Europe. We became a little worried there, right-wing parties are rising, racism is rising, nationalist trends are on the rise. Were nationalist movements rising due to the immigration crisis there?

Regarding this issue, we had some concerns about the safety of our citizens living there. We had political, social, and sociological concerns about whether we would experience problems. Honestly, at the moment, this situation seems a bit more subdued, a bit more calm. In the Eurozone, the main focus we have is still the high inflation and how inflation will be reduced after the moves of the ECB. The path seems to be a bit clearer now. However, we cannot say the same for America, my friends. For America, in the November American elections, they say Trump 2.0. I constantly read and hear this in the press. Actually, there has been a change. In the Democratic Party, there was no potential for Biden to win the election due to his age and health. A step was taken, albeit late. A strong figure from the Democratic Party like Kamala Harris emerged as a female candidate against Trump. Now, the American elections, especially, will create the beginning of a result that is directly influential on the money supply in the world.

That's why it is necessary to follow the American elections and it is necessary to closely monitor if there will be a conjuncture change there because we know from the numbers that the American society is inclined towards Capital Markets, especially in terms of deposits, or rather savings. We know that the Capital Markets are very developed there, or rather the measure of development related to the capital markets is referred to as the touchpoint in the American geography. And it is said that in the American society, if the returns in the capital markets are good, it creates a happiness effect, as behavioral finance experts say. Trump is a man who uses this very well, especially if Trump 2-0 happens, there may be an upward movement in the conjuncture, especially in the American markets, regarding developing countries and their return potentials, in terms of their return potentials on risky assets. The market is not predicting this right now, but we must definitely follow the American elections, it is a geography that we must follow.

Even if it is very far away, an important agenda item that we need to follow, friends. So, what the FED is doing during this process, and what importance it holds, friends. Well, if you have been following my videos on its fight against inflation, you already know that it is managing it with stability and has been continuing for a long time, following a data-driven management. Friends, Powell is managing this data-driven investment with such a strong discourse that, I mean, American inflation has reached around 9.5% at the moment, approaching the threes level. It even touched the threes level. In fact, the ideal for American inflation is to reach the twos. So, this was largely achieved through verbal communication by the FED and Powell, conducted with very accurate communication. This was done without shaking the markets. Now, what the FED needs to announce in the coming days, the meetings it will hold today and tomorrow, and the comments that will reflect on the market will be very important. In addition, there are the Jackson Hole meetings in August, on the 16th and 17th of July, regarding the period of FED interest rate hikes in September.

Already, the interest rate cut in pricing at a rate of 10000%. However, what will be the frequency of this? In other words, will it be a 0.75% interest rate cut, or will it evolve in a different direction according to the election results? Frankly, it is not widely known, but the sensitivity of the Fed to interest rates, the sensitivity of interest rates to monetary policy, and its reflection on our daily lives will be one of the important points that will mark the last 5 months of the year, my friends. So, leaving aside the Fed, apart from that, there is the central bank, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. What will be the stance of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey? Now, the table you see on the screen, friends, shows Turkey's inflation figures. So, the latest inflation rate here came in June at 71.6%, and currently, our policy rate is %. Friends, our policy rate is still being pursued with a positive and consistent discourse, and portfolios continue to be strongly positioned thanks to this, money market funds continue to bring returns, debt securities funds continue to bring returns, and on the risky asset side, domestic

Stocks have made their mark in terms of returns in the first 7 months. So, are our questions the same for the rest of the year? Has it changed compared to the beginning of the year, or has it differentiated? In my opinion, there is not much difference, but there is a risk of developments that can change the conjuncture at the base. In the last 5 months, we see that central banks are still continuing their influential role. Whether it's the ECB, the Bank of England, or the Federal Reserve, they are continuing to play their roles strongly and sending very serious messages to both their internal dynamics, local markets, and global markets. Now, it will be crucial for us to follow whether the emphasis on high inflation by the FED in July 3031 will come out of the FED minutes. Because so far, the FED has been emphasizing high inflation in the texts without fail, underlining it, and supporting it with their statements. However, the recent data will be important to follow, especially after the FED meetings in July 3031.

Then, the issue of whether he emphasizes high inflation in the text he will present will lead to our investigation. If this emphasis on high inflation is removed from the text, it would likely mean that a rate cut in September is already priced in at a rate of 10000. If this emphasis is removed from the texts, so what is the situation in Turkey, friends, how has the situation changed in our own internal dynamics? Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Dr. Cevdet Akçay, stated to Reuters in an announcement that an early rate cut is not on the agenda, he said to the markets on July 26, and this interview actually hit the market like a bomb. Now, the most important issue that Cevdet hocanın underlined here and especially underlined in the meetings he attended is the sensitivity to whether the improvement in the monthly course of inflation will continue. Cevdet Hoca, who also emphasized a similar point in the interview given to Reuters, continues to give a clear message here. In fact, we can say the interest rate cut cycle is not being considered at the moment. Now, especially in September, in September specifically, what will come is coming.

A statement had come from the top level of the government regarding the possibility of a cycle of interest rate cuts with inflation figures and domestic inflation figures, but Cevdet Hoca expresses that this statement is actually off the agenda. As a central banker, he announces this to the global world through Reuters. Now, the second important message he gives here is that when the cuts begin, market players have started updating their views to not expect an interest rate cut from the Central Bank in 2024, which was already hinted at after the interview Cevdet Hoca gave. The clue here was that Cevdet Hoca clearly stated that a firm stance will be maintained when the cuts begin, leaving no doubt, and he actually crowned this concern by stating that an early interest rate cut could create a resurgence in inflation risk. This is because the Central Bank's fight against inflation started after the change in the economic management following the May 2023 elections, as you know.

However, in this long-term period, inflation showed a downward trend in approximately 14 months, the first month being June 2020 with 24.71. This is expected to continue in July as well, and the main factor behind this is actually the base effect. This is because very high monthly inflation rates were recorded in June 2023 and July 2024. Now, one of the points emphasized by Cevdet Hoca, especially in the monthly course of inflation decrease, is the desire for this monthly inflation trend to be at a one-point increase level from the upward trend. I personally think that if the economic management breaks this belief that has already emerged in the market with the risk of an early interest rate cut, it could actually trigger inflation upwards. This situation actually gives us a clearer clue about where we can preserve our assets for the rest of the year. What is this clue? As seen in the table on the Borsa Istanbul screen, as also seen from the graph.

For the last month, roughly the last 3.5 to 4 weeks, we have been in a downward trend and within a correction movement, and we see that the market closed at the level of 10.69. So, we see that it closed the day at 10,000, a psychological limit, my friends. Actually, going below 10,000 can accelerate sales here. However, the basis of our previous videos was the discussion of when the Central Bank, especially relying on the downward movement of inflation domestically, would gain the courage to start interest rate cuts. And after it started interest rate cuts, the assumption was that a strong upward movement would begin in the Istanbul Stock Exchange from the point where the interest rate cut movement was announced. However, with his statements, Cevdet Hoca has now eliminated this possibility. Now, the question is whether the Istanbul Stock Exchange is currently taking a break or will continue its downward movement strongly. If we look at it technically, we will see it in a short time, within a week. But the important point here, my friends, is the story of the year.

Then, in the remaining part, we are talking about a 5-month period. During this 5-month period, the Central Bank took steps to prevent the decrease in deposit interest rates, especially due to the abundance of TL liquidity in the market, in other words, used some tools to attract excess TL liquidity. After the interest rates settled above % of deposit interest rates, I honestly think that the past period of the year is a time when we need to take a closer look at risk-free assets, money market funds, and debt securities funds. That's why I wanted to have this conversation with you. Has it changed to 2024? Yes, in my opinion, from August to December 2024, the last 5-month period will be a bit different compared to the first 7 months of the year because the catalyst was what? The strength of our TL assets and the downward movement of inflation, especially in TL-denominated assets, is expected to significantly push our stock market, Borsa Istanbul, upwards. Therefore, it is necessary to make an observation within this observation. In fact, the biggest incentive is the ratings of rating agencies.

there are increments and in the upcoming period due to the foreign inflow supported by these increments in the past period, the main view is that there will be an upward movement in the Istanbul stock exchange. However, be careful, during this process, there was a foreign inflow to the Istanbul stock exchange, but this inflow mostly went into bonds, my friends. There was an outflow from stocks and an inflow into bonds. So, what is the reason for this? The reason for this, my friends, is the improvement in Turkish Lira bond yields caused by the policy interest rate raised to 50 by the Central Bank. As a result of the regular and stable course of economic policy, the expectation of a downward trend in interest rates led foreigners to take positions. Because, considering the bond structure, if you think in terms of value with interest rates, bonds are an asset class inversely correlated with interest rates. We will talk about this shortly. So, which fund groups do we need to pay more attention to in 2024? Let's move on to that now. In 2024, I am highlighting money market funds. Why am I highlighting them? Because

In the money market funds, perhaps on Monday, perhaps on Thursday, August 1st, we will see the withholding tax of these funds being increased. But with deposits, in my opinion, a uniform practice will be implemented by the management. Well, I think the economic management will do so. However, money market funds have a very strong advantage within themselves. Firstly, they have maturity flexibility. In money market funds, you can have a return that is close to inflation, or at least has the potential to exceed inflation without being dependent on maturity. Also, you can have a chance to protect yourself to some extent from market fluctuations and risks. Now, imagine you have 20,000 TL in your pocket and you went to a bank branch to get a deposit rate. The policy rate is currently at 5%, so the pricing you will get for that deposit may be around 3.9 or 4.0. Because bargaining power means this, my friends. If you have a large balance, if you have a large deposit, you may have a better interest rate. However, if you have a money market fund, portfolio management companies are already handling this operational burden for you.

Management companies are also in serious competition with each other in this respect, and since money market funds are non-interest-bearing funds, you have an advantage in terms of comparing the performances of portfolio management companies and transferring your portfolio to a portfolio management company that performs better through tefas. Now, one of the most important features of the compound interest money market fund, which provides a return of around %, is that if you stay constantly in the money market fund that provides a return of around %, actually, the return you will have after 30 days, 45 days will be higher than the return you would get from a classic time deposit interest because your money is gaining value every day, and by growing your savings with a compound interest logic based on the amount that gains value, in this sense, money market funds are one of the prominent investment instruments we see on this screen. Therefore, maneuverability is one of them, in my opinion, because the last 5 months of the year are a risky period, friends, a period where we cannot see our future very clearly.

This risky situation can also offer opportunities for us. If we have invested in a liquid asset, we can take advantage of these opportunities. In this sense, it is also beneficial to consider money market funds. Now, in terms of bond funds, it is constantly emphasized. If you notice, our large portfolio companies are adopting an attitude that highlights bond funds. This is because the returns here are around 4.5% to 5% monthly. It is similar to a state, an institution, a financial institution, or a bank issuing bonds to raise funds from the market for financing purposes. For example, the Treasury of the Republic of Turkey issues a bond promising to provide a higher interest rate on the money in your pocket than a deposit, enabling you to make an investment. In fact, you are lending that money to the government, and at the end of the term, the government is obliged to pay you back. You receive that money. Now, when we talk about bond funds, especially targeting interest returns.

Because they have assets, private sector bonds are one step ahead in treasury bonds or treasury bills because when you need to choose to lend, you have to decide whether you want to lend to a government, a company, or a bank. Therefore, since the government's bargaining power and trust factor are stronger here, private sector bonds generally have a premium over treasury bonds. In other words, they promise a higher interest return. Therefore, it may be beneficial to look at funds that include private sector bonds because they are relatively low risk. Because currently the monetary policy is being carried out reasonably and logically, a fight against inflation is anticipated, and there is a very clear statement from the Central Bank that if the fight against inflation is successful, interest rates will be reduced. Now, as I mentioned a little while ago, the nature of bonds and bills is like this, friends. When interest rates rise, that is, when the interest on a bond you have purchased increases, your bond loses value. When interest rates fall, your bond...

Foreign investors prefer to invest in bonds and bills in Turkish markets rather than stocks because they assume that the fight against inflation will be successful by the end of the year or in the upcoming period, leading to an expectation of a decrease in interest rates. This expectation is what drives them to believe that bonds and bills will gain value in their portfolios. Therefore, they have mostly invested in bonds and bills instead of stocks. Just like I mentioned a bit earlier, there should be an appeal here in the market. When there is a 50% interest rate in the market for private sector bonds, you may choose a private sector bond that also offers a 50% interest rate. However, if that bond offers a 56% interest rate and you trust the private sector player there, you may prefer it. It will suffice to think in this simple logic. Now, when it comes to foreign equity funds, by saying that the tone of the Fed is important, what I actually mean is this: In the American market, especially, the Fed has two main tasks, one is inflation and the other is employment, just like our Central Bank.

On our bank's official website, the main mission is mentioned as price stability. The Federal Reserve (FED) has two main tasks in this regard: inflation and employment. Currently, the market is pricing in a FED interest rate cut in September. However, regarding this interest rate cut, one could also make the following comment: if the interest rate cut is due to the success of the data-driven policy pursued by the FED in its fight against inflation, then it is a positive thing. However, if this interest rate cut had to be made because it slightly disrupted the improvement in the employment markets, which is one of the FED's two main tasks, then it could be a negative thing. Therefore, I believe it is important to be a bit cautious, a bit controlled, and a bit liquid in order to better understand what lies behind the FED's data-driven approach and to eliminate this uncertainty. We are going through a period where it is important to be cautious, controlled, and liquid. I personally think that understanding what is happening in the background of the FED's data-driven approach is crucial. When I refer to U.S.-based indices, I mean an index that does not exhibit thematic features, such as the Dow Jones or the NZD, but as you know, it could be related to an interest rate cut.

A very sensitive index. Technology is a very sensitive sector. As I mentioned here, it might be more correct to take a position by looking at why the Fed will lower interest rates. It may be logical to look at ETFs because costs are lower there. Friends, index-based, not US-based, ETFs without a specific theme can be included in our stock portfolio depending on our risk perception. The percentage there depends entirely on your risk perception, friends. I always say that. Now, in terms of foreign ETFs, when we compare foreign stock exchange-traded funds or rather fund baskets, I mentioned a fund basket fund that invests in American Treasury bonds. Now, the motivation there, the investor motivation there, is based on the same mathematics behind why foreign investors take positions in bonds rather than stocks in Turkey. It depends on the operation of bonds and bills, friends. Now, in the case of the Fed cutting interest rates, America has 7-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 2-year bonds.

Investment options can become viable depending on the expectation of these gaining value. However, these are risky assets. Like I said, in the next month, maybe in the next 1 or 5 months, we need to be very cautious. This could be a period where we need to be extremely cautious because the risks we take now could have long-term consequences if we make a wrong decision for the rest of the year. That's why I honestly think being cautious is very important right now. The American elections are, of course, very important. It might be much more logical to see which direction the American economic policy will evolve after determining who the president is after the American elections. Therefore, balanced portfolios without keeping the risk too high can be our savior in the last 5 months of the year. Friends, lastly, I also want to mention foreign asset-focused variable funds here, and I'm talking about these variable funds that are managed by trying to create a balance by carrying both stocks and bonds, so it would be beneficial for you to take a look at them. In other words, foreign asset-focused variable funds in the portfolios of our asset management companies.

Variable funds can be examined as options that try to balance the portfolio by simultaneously holding foreign stocks and bonds. A more detailed analysis can be conducted there. Now, the Eurozone side can also be seen as a financial asset selection that needs to slowly enter portfolios. However, as I mentioned, it seems necessary to see this current conjuncture a bit clearer in a one to one and a half month period because, frankly, I think we are going through a period where risks are high. Currently, in terms of return performance in the first 7 months of the year, domestic stocks that have marked the year in terms of return performance have a rocky road. With his statement on July 26th, Cevdet Hoca, also known as Dr. Cevdet Akçay, ensured a consensus and opinion on the fact that there will be no rate cuts until 2024, and actually displayed a stance of closing the door to interest rate cuts for market players. So far, almost all stories that triggered the Istanbul Stock Exchange upwards have been bought by friends, and almost all expectations of Fitch's and Moody's credit rating upgrades have been priced in.

They have increased, and these improvements, which were all priced in advance, may be a period confirmed by market players as we enter a stable period of improvement. Therefore, I think the next few months will be a bit rough, dusty, and rocky for domestic equity-heavy funds. I believe the road ahead will have some thorns on the roses because the entire story for the upward expectations in Borsa Istanbul has already been bought in advance. It seems like there is not a very serious story ahead for Borsa Istanbul, so caution is needed. Turkish Lira assets in the portfolio, according to our risk structure and risk perception, we should shape our portfolio by staying away from TL risky assets and turning to low-risk variable funds such as money market funds and bond funds, that is, to create a portfolio with low risk. If we have the potential to take some medium risk, it is necessary to talk about holding assets such as precious metals, gold, silver, in low proportions. So, it is necessary to have these in portfolios, friends.

If you have a high-risk investor profile, one of the investors currently investing in Borsa Istanbul is Eniz. For example, if you have been losing a significant amount of money for the last 3 weeks, but if you have a high-risk investor profile, you may consider this as an opportunity. You may even want to increase your weight in these funds. As I said, all the steps you will take during this process are directly related to which risk group you belong to, in which risk group you belong to, there is no one-size-fits-all economic structure, no right recipe for financial asset selection for everyone, my friends. Because we are all different from each other, you know, I always repeat this in my statements, I know sometimes you get bored, but unfortunately, this is the case. Because every investor is unique, every investor is different from each other, every investment, every investor looks to the future with different concerns, different hopes at a different point in their life cycle. Therefore, there is no single right portfolio for everyone, my friends. Never forget this. And as a final note here, my friends, it has been 40 minutes again.

I have talked about money market debt securities funds, variable funds, foreign equity funds, precious metals, and especially the Fed's attitude towards interest rates, and it is important to understand clearly why this interest rate cut is happening because gold is related to this. The main theme, in my opinion, is to increase the risk-free return a bit as a weight in our portfolios in the remaining part of the year. I actually think that caution should not be abandoned in the last 5 months of the year. Yes, after this 40-minute presentation, I would like to quickly look at your questions right after the chat. I believe that I am not very much into behaviors like profit realization, personally. I look at which percentage my portfolio is weighted with a fund supported by the current conjuncture and whether that percentage weight harbors opportunities to maximize my return in the upcoming period. So, stock investment is a bit different in that sense from investment funds, in terms of profit realization.

There is something, uh, a value date, you know, in funds, in equity funds it's T+2, in foreign funds it's 3 or 4 depending on the time you are trading. So, I believe that it is more important to determine the correct portfolio allocation that will maximize the return. I am actually on the side of thinking that it is more important than profit realization. I generally don't have a stance like profit realization. Of course, this is my personal opinion, I continue. Nuran Hanım has a comment here. Uh, withholding tax. She said, For me, withholding tax doesn't bother me at all. Now, friends, where I agree with Nuran Hanım is that this is an exception. This withholding tax exception has been in place since the end of 2020. Previously, there was always a 10% withholding tax on investment funds, and that was a step taken specifically to support investment funds in the capital market. It was a constantly repeating exception, so I need to focus on that area a lot. If the investment fund we invest in offers a return above inflation and is well-managed, uh, our portfolio management company, on a monthly or annual basis.

If inflation is successful in providing a solution on a periodic basis, I don't think we should dwell too much on the taxes we pay from the income we earn because we cannot enjoy the financial success we achieve for a long time. Sometimes we need to look at things a bit more simply. After all, there is income earned, and the government collects its tax on that. Let's continue now. Zül Hanım, I have heard these nicknames, and I quite like them. Trump 2.0, I don't know. Hopefully not, let's see. Let's continue. Here we have a question. Ercan's question: How does the exchange rate affect foreign funds? Now, when calculating the price of foreign assets in the funds, the Central Bank's exchange rate for buying foreign currency is calculated. Think of it this way: when the value of assets in the funds is calculated daily, foreign assets also need to be calculated based on an exchange rate. In this exchange rate, the Central Bank's Dollar buying rate is crucial. If this Dollar buying rate is moving upwards, the fund appreciates; if it moves downwards, the fund's value decreases. So, in this way,

It has an effect. Therefore, the upward movement in the exchange rate supports funds with foreign assets, pushing them upward, the opposite pushes them downward. I will continue. Deniz made a very nice comment. Oh, no, thank you. I hope it is helpful, Deniz. About the Qubic Cup Qubic Portfolio Fund, I will make a more detailed examination, or rather, an analysis there. In the part of the analysis that I plan to make, I will put the GPG fund on the other side. It will be a fund managed by Eral. It will be nice to compare the two because both invest in foreign assets, including stocks, bonds, and foreign debt instruments, seeking a balance, and funds that have been in the capital market for a long time. I am actually thinking of comparing the two. I will answer your question in that regard. Yes, it has been a 46-minute long time, a long time. As I said, thank you very much for your participation and support. Like the broadcast.

Don't forget to share with your loved ones and subscribe to my channel, it's free. In this sense, by sharing my videos, you support me in reaching valuable people like you. Take very good care of yourselves. Dear friends, I say goodbye to meet you in a new video or a live broadcast. Hoping the remaining 5 months until 2024 will be good for all of us. Good evening.

2024'ün Geri Kalanında Fırsatlar & Tehditler #fon #yatırımfonu #livestream

Yücel Ferek 

Anticipated Changes in Investment Fund Withholding Tax

5% withholding tax exemption in investment funds is expected to end on July 31st, reverting to a 10% tax rate.

The government's intensive actions on taxation for tax justice indicate a consistent approach, likely leading to a 10% withholding tax rate after August 1st.

The investment fund universe has provided returns in line with predictions, with a prominent performance in domestic equity funds, despite a correction movement in the last month.

The Impact of the 2024 Elections on Global Politics and Markets

The 2024 local election brought significant change, leading to a close voting potential between the ruling party and the opposition.

The rise of the radical right-wing in the European Parliament elections caused concerns about nationalist movements and immigration.

The American elections, especially the potential impact of "Trump 2.

0," are crucial for global money supply and the happiness effect on capital markets, with a focus on the FED's data-driven management of inflation.

Uncertainty Surrounding Interest Rate Cuts and Inflation in Turkey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is currently not considering an interest rate cut, despite previous speculation and government statements.

Cevdet Akçay emphasized the importance of continuing to monitor the inflation trend, indicating a firm stance on potential rate cuts.

The bank's priority remains the fight against inflation, following a change in economic management after the May 2023 elections.

Predictions for the Istanbul Stock Exchange and Inflation in 2024

Inflation showed a downward trend for about 14 months, driven by a base effect from high rates in the past.

There is a belief that a slight increase in the monthly inflation trend may occur, but an early interest rate cut could reverse this.

The upcoming period from August to December 2024 is expected to be different, with the Turkish Lira's strength and decreasing inflation likely to boost the Istanbul stock exchange, driven by foreign inflows into bonds.

The Benefits of Money Market Funds and Bond Funds

The withholding tax for money market funds may increase, but they offer advantages such as maturity flexibility and protection from market fluctuations.

Money market funds also provide a potential for higher returns compared to traditional deposits.

Bond funds, especially those with private sector bonds, offer relatively low risk and higher interest returns.

The current monetary policy's fight against inflation is expected to lead to a reduction in interest rates, making it a good time to consider bond funds.

Foreign Investment Preferences in the Turkish Market

Foreign investors are favoring bonds and bills over stocks in the Turkish market due to the anticipation of a successful inflation fight and a potential decrease in interest rates.

The tone of the Federal Reserve and its data-driven approach to inflation and employment is crucial in shaping investment decisions, leading to a need for caution and liquidity.

The upcoming American elections and the uncertainty of economic policies make balanced portfolios a wise choice for the remaining months of the year.

Financial Asset Selection and Portfolio Management Advice

Variable funds can help balance portfolios with foreign stocks and bonds, while the Eurozone is seen as a gradually entering financial asset.

The current high-risk period, with no anticipated interest rate cuts until 2024, suggests a rough time ahead for domestic equity-heavy funds.

In this unstable period, caution is advised, with a recommendation to avoid Turkish Lira risky assets and focus on low-risk variable funds and bond funds, as well as precious metals for those willing to take medium risks.

The Importance of Portfolio Allocation and Withholding Tax in Investment Funds

Portfolio allocation is crucial for maximizing return on investment, sometimes more important than profit realization.

The withholding tax exception implemented since the end of 2020 is significant for investment funds in the capital market.

The exchange rate plays a critical role in affecting the value of foreign funds, with the Central Bank's Dollar buying rate being a key factor in the fund's appreciation or depreciation.