Investment Funds: Changes and Expectations for 2024

Investment expert predicts 10% withholding tax in funds after August 1st, advises caution and focus on low-risk assets.

### Turkish Investment Fund Tax Changes and 2024 Economic Outlook
* 📊 The current **7.5% tax exemption** on Turkish investment funds is expected to end, reverting to a **10% withholding tax** from August 1st.
* 🏦 Central Bank Deputy Governor Cevdet Akçay stated that **early rate cuts are not on the agenda**, signaling a **stable policy**.
* 🇺🇸 The outcome of the upcoming US elections, especially the potential for "**Trump 2.0**," is seen as a **key factor for global markets**.
* 🏛 The Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates, particularly its **data-driven strategy**, will be closely monitored.
* 📉 The Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST) is expected to face challenges in the next 5 months, with **some caution advised**.
* 💰 Recommended fund groups for the rest of 2024 include **money market funds, bond funds, and foreign equity funds**.
* 📈 Despite recent corrections, domestic equity funds have performed well in 2024, but **caution is advised for the future**.
* 🌍 The speaker emphasizes the importance of **individual risk profiles** in portfolio decisions, as there is **no one-size-fits-all approach**.

2024'ün Geri Kalanında Fırsatlar & Tehditler #fon #yatırımfonu #livestream

Yücel Ferek 

Anticipated Changes in Investment Fund Withholding Tax

5% withholding tax exemption in investment funds is expected to end on July 31st, reverting to a 10% tax rate.

The government's intensive actions on taxation for tax justice indicate a consistent approach, likely leading to a 10% withholding tax rate after August 1st.

The investment fund universe has provided returns in line with predictions, with a prominent performance in domestic equity funds, despite a correction movement in the last month.

The Impact of the 2024 Elections on Global Politics and Markets

The 2024 local election brought significant change, leading to a close voting potential between the ruling party and the opposition.

The rise of the radical right-wing in the European Parliament elections caused concerns about nationalist movements and immigration.

The American elections, especially the potential impact of "Trump 2.

0," are crucial for global money supply and the happiness effect on capital markets, with a focus on the FED's data-driven management of inflation.

Uncertainty Surrounding Interest Rate Cuts and Inflation in Turkey

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is currently not considering an interest rate cut, despite previous speculation and government statements.

Cevdet Akçay emphasized the importance of continuing to monitor the inflation trend, indicating a firm stance on potential rate cuts.

The bank's priority remains the fight against inflation, following a change in economic management after the May 2023 elections.

Predictions for the Istanbul Stock Exchange and Inflation in 2024

Inflation showed a downward trend for about 14 months, driven by a base effect from high rates in the past.

There is a belief that a slight increase in the monthly inflation trend may occur, but an early interest rate cut could reverse this.

The upcoming period from August to December 2024 is expected to be different, with the Turkish Lira's strength and decreasing inflation likely to boost the Istanbul stock exchange, driven by foreign inflows into bonds.

The Benefits of Money Market Funds and Bond Funds

The withholding tax for money market funds may increase, but they offer advantages such as maturity flexibility and protection from market fluctuations.

Money market funds also provide a potential for higher returns compared to traditional deposits.

Bond funds, especially those with private sector bonds, offer relatively low risk and higher interest returns.

The current monetary policy's fight against inflation is expected to lead to a reduction in interest rates, making it a good time to consider bond funds.

Foreign Investment Preferences in the Turkish Market

Foreign investors are favoring bonds and bills over stocks in the Turkish market due to the anticipation of a successful inflation fight and a potential decrease in interest rates.

The tone of the Federal Reserve and its data-driven approach to inflation and employment is crucial in shaping investment decisions, leading to a need for caution and liquidity.

The upcoming American elections and the uncertainty of economic policies make balanced portfolios a wise choice for the remaining months of the year.

Financial Asset Selection and Portfolio Management Advice

Variable funds can help balance portfolios with foreign stocks and bonds, while the Eurozone is seen as a gradually entering financial asset.

The current high-risk period, with no anticipated interest rate cuts until 2024, suggests a rough time ahead for domestic equity-heavy funds.

In this unstable period, caution is advised, with a recommendation to avoid Turkish Lira risky assets and focus on low-risk variable funds and bond funds, as well as precious metals for those willing to take medium risks.

The Importance of Portfolio Allocation and Withholding Tax in Investment Funds

Portfolio allocation is crucial for maximizing return on investment, sometimes more important than profit realization.

The withholding tax exception implemented since the end of 2020 is significant for investment funds in the capital market.

The exchange rate plays a critical role in affecting the value of foreign funds, with the Central Bank's Dollar buying rate being a key factor in the fund's appreciation or depreciation.