It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days. Sam Altman just dropped a new blog post in which he basically says everything's going to change in the very close future. The blog post is titled The Intelligence Age, and it reveals how artificial intelligence is going to transform everything we know. Let's read it together, and I'll give you my thoughts. In the next couple of decades, we will be able to do things that would have seemed like magic to our grandparents. I think we're already there. The fact that we can have conversations with a voice, with text, with artificial intelligence about any topic, and it's incredibly accurate and knowledgeable and intelligent, is mind-blowing to me, let alone my parents. I don't even think my parents really understand how to leverage it. And before I go deeper into this blog post, the entire blog post is really based on the fact that he believes we have discovered the way to reach AGI, and that is through deep learning. That is it. It is scalable. We have found two different ways to

scale it one at training time with more data, and then one at inference time with techniques like train of thought and reflection. This phenomenon is not new, but it is newly accelerated. People have become dramatically more capable over time. We can already accomplish things now that our predecessors would have believed to be impossible. I'm not going to read every single line of this; I'm going to pick out the most important ones and then give you my thoughts. In this paragraph, he discusses how society in itself is a form of intelligence and how we haven't had some genetic evolution over the last couple thousand years that have allowed us to unlock a lot of these incredible technological and societal advancements, but rather just the fact that society itself is infrastructure, and we're able to leverage society is what is allowing all of these unlocks to happen. They contributed to the scaffolding of human progress that we all benefit from. AI will give people tools to solve hard problems and help us add new struts to that scaffolding that we couldn't have.

figured out on our own. It won't happen all at once, but we'll soon be able to work with AI that helps us accomplish much more than we ever could without AI. Eventually, we can each have a personal AI team full of virtual experts in different areas, working together to create almost anything we can imagine. We are already seeing glimpses of that. Over the last week, I've had a couple of health issues, nothing major, but I got so much information from just chatting with Chat GPT to help understand what was going on, and then obviously working with real doctors, human doctors. But I was just able to inform myself and work with AI to just better understand how I should be thinking about it, how serious it might be, and ultimately it's all good. But without that, I would have been doing Google searches and looking through countless articles filled with fluff, and this was just so much more efficient. Our children will have virtual tutors who can provide personalized instruction in any subject, in any language, and at whatever pace they need. We can imagine similar ideas for better

Health Care, the ability to create any kind of software someone can imagine, and much more. Education is something that I'm particularly excited about. I have two young children, and they are going to grow up in the age of AI education. They will have hyper-personalized courses based on their exact needs and their exact progress. Right now, education, especially in the US, is basically bucketing a bunch of kids together and pushing them stage by stage. The only way to really get out of that is to pay for private school, and even then, it's not as personalized as it could be. But with AI, we could give children, every single individual child, the ability to learn at their own pace, exactly what they need to learn, and exactly, more importantly, how they learn best. Not every child learns best by just sitting and listening or reading or whatever method that they want. Everybody's different; everybody learns differently. I learn really well from watching videos, so maybe AI will just create me personalized videos based on whatever subject I want to learn. With these new abilities, we can have shared prosperity.

to a degree that seems unimaginable today. In the future, everyone's lives can be better than anyone's life is now. I do believe this. You know, I'm an optimist, especially with regards to artificial intelligence, and I truly believe everybody in the future is going to benefit from AI. And hopefully, what I can do is accelerate people's ability to adopt AI in their lives more quickly and more effectively. Prosperity alone doesn't necessarily make people happy, of course. There are plenty of miserable rich people, but it would meaningfully improve the lives of people around the world. And I think about a quote from Kanye West, of all people, and I apologize if he wasn't the first person to say this, but he basically said, Having money isn't everything, but not having it is. So, money is not going to solve your problems, but not having it is going to cause a lot of problems. And I truly believe that. Here is one narrow way to look at human history. After thousands of years of compounding scientific discovery and technological progress, we

have figured out how to melt sand, add some impurities, arrange it with astonishing precision at an extraordinarily tiny scale into computer chips, run energy through it, and end up with systems capable of creating increasingly capable artificial intelligence, essentially mimicking how the human brain works. This may turn out to be the most consequential fact about all of history so far. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days. Let's just pause there for a second. I want to reread this. It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days. That is measuring in years, not decades, years. So he explicitly said 01 preview and 01. The model is not AGI, and his motivation for saying it's not AGI could be questioned because as soon as they discover AGI, Microsoft gets no part of it anymore. And of course, Microsoft is a huge investor, huge owner of OpenAI. So there's definitely some incentives for him not to call things AGI, but he is saying that it is possible within a few

thousand days we will have super intelligence. It may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there. Now, how did we actually get to this point? And that is the whole premise of his blog post. Three words: deep learning worked. The ability to feed data into a system, and it learned from that data to predict future decisions, future tokens, whatever it is, that is what has worked. In 15 words: deep learning worked, got predictably better with scale, and we dedicated increasing resources to it. Now, as I've been mentioning on this channel, as I've mentioned already, we've already figured out two dimensions in which we can scale deep learning, both at training time and at inference time, which is kind of a newer thing. We've had papers in the past that have talked about Chain of Thought reasoning and a lot of other inference time techniques, but not until we've really seen 01 preview, and hopefully 01 soon, that we really understood how powerful it can be. That's really it. Humanity discovered an algorithm that could really truly learn any

distribution of data, or really the underlying rules that produce any distribution of data, to a shocking degree of precision. The more compute and data available, the better it gets at helping people solve hard problems. Deep learning works, and we will solve the remaining problems, and he says basically there are still problems to solve with deep learning, but he is 100% confident that we will solve them. We can say a lot of things about what may happen next, but the main one is that AI is going to get better with scale, and that will lead to meaningful improvements to the lives of people around the world. Now, a few predictions of what the future could look like. AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who can carry out specific tasks on our behalf, like coordinating medical care on your behalf. And this is really the key vision for what I believe agents will be able to do: autonomous assist, not ones that you have to proactively prompt to go do something. And that's great for today, and that's scratching the surface of what's possible, but

agents that can actually go out and work 24/7 on your behalf, doing things as simple as reading and summarizing and replying to all of my emails, to as they're saying here, help me get ahead of any health problems that I might have. AI systems are going to get so good that they help us make better next-generation systems and make scientific progress across the board. So, what does he mean by this? First, they help us make better next-generation systems. There's two ways that it can do that: one, through synthetic data, one model creating data for another model. In a recent video, I talked about humans being really the bottleneck in AI exploding because if we can only train AI on data that we create or we label, we being humans, it is highly limiting. But if we have AI creating and labeling unlimited amounts of data for future models, that unlocks the intelligence explosion. And then, number two, it's with projects like Sakana AI's AI scientist. Basically, AI is going to discover new techniques autonomously, running 24/7.

that will help unlock future gains in other systems. So, this is really the intelligence explosion. Once we have AI that can discover new science, new techniques, and then apply it autonomously to itself, intelligence is just going to skyrocket. If we want to put AI into the hands of as many people as possible, we need to drive down the cost of compute and make it abundant. And the famous quote from him is intelligence too cheap to meter. If we don't build enough infrastructure, AI will be a very limited resource that wars get fought over, and that becomes mostly a tool for rich people. And this is something that he's actively working on. He's working on energy production, he's working on chip manufacturing, he's working on server farms, and many other people are as well. But obviously, this is what he is very focused on right now. We need to act wisely but with conviction. The dawn of the intelligence age is a momentous development with very complex and extremely high-stakes challenges. I love that he's calling it the intelligence

age like the Stone Age, the Bronze Age, the Iron Age, and so on. It will not be an entirely positive story, but the upside is so tremendous that we owe it to ourselves and the future to figure out how to navigate the risk in front of us. Specifically, a few challenges are that a lot of people are going to lose their jobs, and hopefully, jobs will transform, and more jobs will become available because that's essentially what has happened through every technological revolution that we've had to date. Some positivity for the future, although it will happen incrementally, astounding triumphs fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and the discovery of all of physics will eventually become commonplace. I am absolutely thrilled to hear him writing about this, and it just makes me happy. I love being optimistic about the future with nearly limitless intelligence and abundant energy, the ability to generate great ideas, and the ability to make them happen. We can do quite a lot, but there will also be downsides, and we will start working now to maximize AI benefits while minimizing

its harms as one example. We expect that this technology can cause a significant change in labor markets, which I just mentioned, good and bad, in the coming years. But most jobs will change more slowly than people think, and I have no fear that we'll run out of things to do, even if they don't look like real jobs to us today. People have an innate desire to create and be useful to each other, and AI will allow us to amplify our own abilities like never before. I truly believe that. I believe that humans will be able to be hyperproductive and hypercreative with AI as a tool. AI will not replace us; it will allow us to do things at scales that we just didn't think were possible. And he ends with some thoughts about how people of the past would have viewed what a lot of jobs are today. So, let's read that. Many of the jobs we do today would have looked like trifling wastes of time to people a few hundred years ago, but nobody is looking back at the past wishing they were a lamplighter.

if a Lamplighter could see the world today, he would think the prosperity all around him was unimaginable. And if we could fast forward a 100 years from today, the prosperity all around would feel just as unimaginable. One example is coding. You all know that I believe in the long run there will not be any human coders. There's just going to be whatever an individual needs, and the model weights will deliver it. And that's a great example. Maybe a few hundred years from now, maybe a few decades from now, we're going to look back and think, Wow, coders don't really exist anymore. But that's okay. There's some other amazing creative job that they're now doing. So, a lot to think about here. Let me know what you think in the comments. If you enjoyed this video, please consider giving a like and subscribe, and I'll see you in the next one.

OpenAI CEO: “SuperIntelligence within 1000’s of Days”

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