[Music] Yes, in the absolute lecture on the global AI semiconductor market, there is a lot of interest in Nvidia in domestic and foreign stock markets. After the stock split, it closed slightly higher in the first trading. It seems that it will have a considerable impact on our economy. Let's take a look with commentator Jung Cheol-jin. Welcome. Yes, I briefly mentioned that it closed slightly higher. How was the market sentiment today? It was quite good on the first day. It was better than expected. Nvidia did relatively well. Evaluations like this are coming out. A stock split means that there are existing stocks, for example, a 10 million won stock is reduced to 1 million won, but the quantity is increased. So, the current face value split was that Nvidia's stock price was around $1,200 or about 1.5 million won, but this was divided by 10.

Reducing the price to around 120 dollars, which is about 150,000 won, and instead, existing shareholders are likely to receive more. It seems like that. This time, oh, it's doing well now. This split was the sixth one. The previous one was the fifth, in 2021 when it was split 4 to 1. They've been splitting quite frequently, right? Now, in the U.S., they are starting to use this kind of shareholder-friendly policy. At that time, even though the stock price had increased by 12%, regarding the stock split, both domestic investors and Tesla have some concerns. Since Tesla carried out the second stock split, the stock price has plummeted, and even Samsung Electronics, yes, when they did a 50:1 stock split, it was shaky. So, this time, receiving the sixth NVIDIA stock split, it's dropping quite a bit in the early trading session.

2% So, this time, as expected, it closed higher. First, it recovered from the decline, and it seems like we need to keep an eye on NVIDIA's stock for about 1 to 2 weeks after the stock split. We need to watch it a bit, right? For now, whether NVIDIA will rise further or show a significant decline, there are various opinions. However, the optimistic view seems to prevail in the market. Why is that? Now, NVIDIA is creating something called AI, attaching something called HBM, which is AI acceleration, to make a single AI accelerator. If you add a NAND flash here, it becomes a kind of AI-related computer. Think of it this way. By stacking several or hundreds of these, what is it? It's a data center. But why is NVIDIA so dominant in making these AI semiconductors?

Currently, there aren't many followers. Now, what is this? In the HB's White Paper, the next roadmap towards Blackwell is clear. AMD, etc., are also making AI chips, but they can't keep up. That's why the semiconductor of MBD itself is very strong. Secondly, didn't I talk about data centers earlier? In the AI era, making semiconductors is important, but isn't it also crucial to create something like GPT, software utilizing AI? To do that using AI, what is essential? It's data. Yes, so when we talked about Line Yahoo, we were talking about data, right? Then, to secure data, what do we need to create? Data centers. Therefore, countries worldwide are currently in a frenzy to build data centers. The key component entering these data centers is the AI chip. Not only is there a lack of self-reliance, but also from a demand perspective, in countries worldwide...

When looking for NVIDIA, there is hardly any flaw in NVIDIA's AI chips at the moment from a material standpoint. This evaluation you mentioned is already well-known. But still, the outlook for the future seems promising. What does this mean? You made a good point. That's right. Knowing good things, the stock market is smart. If one thing goes wrong, the whole thing can collapse. As we saw in Tesla's second stock split, if it drops to $120, the supply will spread. Then, it becomes very convenient for those who have made some profit to realize the price difference. If you throw a 1.5 million won or 2 million won, there are not many takers, but...

Selling 150,000 won and 120,000 won stocks like this little by little could actually be an opportunity for profit-taking, right? Oh, profit-taking comes to mind. NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that he could sell his own shares. Yes, that's correct. Now, talking about his plan to sell his shares, he has already made it public. Especially recently, in Jensen Huang's actions, although this is a qualitative evaluation, such as signing on the chests of his female fans, these kinds of things... If we look at it qualitatively, isn't this a bit too arrogant at the end? While such qualitative interpretations can certainly be made, from a quantitative perspective, it can be seen that NVIDIA may stumble on certain issues like antitrust, or else, the boundaries of the world...

Suddenly, as it becomes difficult, it can be seen as demand for AI chips decreases. No matter how much you consider materials like AMD HB or something like that, looking at the stock market seems quite challenging. Yes, creating a crisis is also a matter of perspective, right? That's right. So, what impact would it have had last week? In such a situation, NVIDIA's stock price, with Jensen Huang announcing that Samsung's HBM certification process is ongoing and there have been no test failures, made such a surprising announcement. Why did they do that? Yes, NVIDIA now has its GPU, and attaching HBM3 to it has been a continuous topic lately. This will be a significant AI accelerator, right? Currently, NVIDIA is using SK Hynix's HBM3, and it didn't pass here. So, now Samsung Electronics is confident. In the next step, we have 8-stack and 12-stack HBM 32, which we...

I kept taking quality tests because I was going to attach them, but failed when Reuters reported during our time. But this is not a simple pass or fail like college entrance exams. One day, we will determine pass or fail, so even at that time, the report seemed a bit strange. Now, Jensen Huang is directly stepping forward, saying that Samsung Electronics is continuing its important customer cooperation and ongoing tests, and he believes that it will pass sufficiently. Although I heaved a sigh of relief for now, what investors are expecting is that Chairman Lee Jae-yong left for the United States at the end of last month and is meeting with political and economic figures in the East and West. He will probably come back by the end of this week or early next week. Chairman Lee Jae-yong will probably sign a contract with Viva in his hands.

When it comes to a Foundry contract, you need to have something to rely on or put your mind at ease. Currently, the market still has some suspicions and doubts about Samsung Electronics. However, when we look at competitors like Apple, the situation is a bit shaky. Even though they have revealed new strategies, including AI strategies, their stock prices have dropped instead. It's not difficult to incorporate AI into devices. For example, in the case of Samsung's S24, although it is a smaller device, it now includes AI features. Even at Apple's developer conference, there were expectations for the next version of the iPhone to incorporate on-device AI and improve Apple's AI capabilities. They made an announcement at the conference.

Intelligence came out, but Apple's stock actually dropped by nearly 2% last night. Something new came out, but why did it fall? Looking at these contents, it wasn't Apple, it was OpenAI's GPT thing. Right now, what's happening is, during a conversation with Siri, when asked to analyze something and Siri gets stuck, instead of using the power of yes, Apple hands it over to Siri. They say they're handing it over to that side, to GPT, which is why it's not Apple's thing. This kind of thinking actually led to some disappointment. So, in some circles, Apple is criticized for pretending that things that aren't theirs are theirs. The market was harsh. Usually, as mentioned earlier, bad news was told. The possibility of bad news is always there, right?

Do critics think this way? Because of this, there might be a possibility that this could turn into a disaster later on. This is my personal opinion, but when I look at it now, absolute optimism can sometimes be the most dangerous when it is flawless. I've seen many times since 1994 when I first started watching the stock market. In the case of Tesla, after the second stock split, when the stock price skyrocketed, it became very easy for us to be caught off guard as a pretext. At that time, there were instances where cars were not selling, which is a very basic disaster, not an unexpected huge new disaster. So, as I have been mentioning, absolute optimism is one thing, and what else should we consider? We need to look at the supply and demand, not just the supply due to stock splits. Looking at the recent situation only from Korea's perspective, on a weekly or bi-weekly basis.

I'm buying NVIDIA's stock for 2 trillion won, so even though it's almost at its all-time high, without hesitation, we're investing billions of won in NVIDIA. This is because not only a large force but also individual investors are attaching so much capital to NVIDIA. From May last year, almost half of the amount invested in U.S. stocks was used to buy NVIDIA. It's to the extent that we need to consider it as risky, isn't it? In a way, yes. Even in U.S. stocks, from the end of May to June, we bought 3 to 4 trillion won worth of stocks, and among them, almost half were invested in NVIDIA. The stock price is at a significantly high level. The New York Stock Exchange is also at an all-time high, almost at a historical high level for NVIDIA. This confidence without hesitation gives a sense of intuition.

Well, we can talk about the decline. I've mentioned it before, but it's actually quite difficult to pinpoint any weaknesses in Nvidia's material aspects. Now, after the coronavirus, we are now facing a tremendous liquidity market that we have never seen before. This is because the U.S. government has been trying to control inflation and has been releasing liquidity by issuing bonds. So, until when will this situation continue, and at what point should we be cautious? Although voices warning about this situation have been heard for a long time, stock prices are still rising. At what stage do you think we are currently in? If you look at this, it seems that the United States is now.

No one is mentioning the national debt accurately, but the United States is struggling with its economy. The national debt has exceeded the GDP. It's about $30 to $33 trillion in debt. So, when the current interest rates rise, the first and most difficult place to suffer is the United States. They have to pay interest. Therefore, the market continues to talk about it. Just as the anchor started to say, they may pretend to raise interest rates and withdraw money from circulation, but the U.S. doesn't have money now. They are in a situation where they have to borrow money. So, they are indirectly doing things like buybacks, issuing treasury bonds, and continuously injecting money. Amidst this, the FOMC meeting is scheduled for this Thursday, where they may really raise interest rates. If interest rates rise further from here,

The U.S. itself can handle it. Now, even this perspective is emerging together. It's hard to issue more government bonds as they have already issued a lot. Yes, we need to issue more in the future. The Treasury Department needs to spend more money now and needs to issue a large amount of long-term 10-year bonds. Currently, with a government bond yield at this level, issuing with an interest rate of over 4% is impossible. The U.S. Treasury Department cannot afford it either. This is another indirect interpretation. Ultimately, through some pretext, the U.S. Treasury bond yield or market interest rates can only be lowered. This interpretation is one external interpretation, but ultimately, because the current U.S. job market is good and prices are not falling much, the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates, and government bond yields will rise further.

It may be a bit superstitious, but we should watch it carefully until the U.S. presidential election. That's correct. It seems like you should watch it this Thursday. Yes, the uncertainty of the global economy is expanding. It was a warning from our economic leader last week. Investors and policymakers should not lose their caution and composure. That's it for today's commentator, Jung Cheol-jin. Thank you.

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