Tesla Investments and Market Dynamics Amid Political Changes

Tesla investors remain optimistic despite manufacturing challenges in China, anticipating growth in other business sectors.

### Tesla Investors' Perspective Amid Political Uncertainty and Market Dynamics
* 🤔 If Donald Trump were to reclaim the presidency, speculation suggests that Elon Musk might take on a role focused on **government efficiency**, prompting Tesla investors to consider their strategies in response to **potential political shifts**.
* 📉 Current rhetoric surrounding tariffs and potential cost-cutting measures of **$2 trillion** raises concerns, but many investors remain unfazed, recognizing Musk's ability to **manage multiple successful ventures simultaneously**.
* 🔋 The mega pack business, noted as **Tesla's fastest-growing and most profitable segment**, could offset pressures on electric vehicle sales, providing a **cushion for investors amid fluctuating market conditions**.
* 🌏 The relationship between the U.S. and China post-election is a critical concern, especially regarding Tesla's manufacturing output in Shanghai, which has **not met expectations** and may **impact delivery records for 2024**.
* 📊 Despite disappointing manufacturing data, Tesla's stock remains relatively stable, trading at a peg price earnings to growth ratio of about **40 times**, indicating the need for **consistent earnings growth** to sustain investor confidence.
* 💼 Research suggests that a Trump victory could **alter the scope of IRA tax credits**, though historical precedent indicates that **significant changes to existing legislation** are challenging for new administrations.
* 💻 Nvidia's recent addition to the Dow raises questions about timing and the exit of Intel, a company that has **struggled with innovation**, whereas Nvidia is positioned for **remarkable earnings growth** in the evolving landscape of generative AI and computing.
* 🍽 Anecdotes from industry leaders, like Larry Ellison's dinner with Elon Musk, highlight the **strong demand for Nvidia's GPUs**, suggesting a **promising future for the company** as it capitalizes on **significant market opportunities**.

If Donald Trump were to claim a second term in the White House, the idea is that Elon Musk takes on some sort of role in the Department of Government efficiency. You are a Tesla investor, right? How do you prepare for either scenario? With a name like Tester in the center of it? Well, you know, the rhetoric is hard to pass through because we hear, you know, tariffs, we hear cost-cutting of 2 trillion just from that side of the aisle. And yet we have no idea what's really going to happen. So I think what Ellen has been able to do pretty effectively is run multiple companies and do it pretty well. So as a Tesla investor, I'm not alarmed at this point. I think you sit back, you know, we've talked in the past about the mega pack business that was the fastest-growing business and it is the most profitable. That's the utility-grade battery storage. So while EVs may come under some

pressure. I think you're going to see other parts of his business benefit. And also, I think everyone ultimately acts in their own best interest, and that includes Donald Trump and Elon Musk. So, if this election goes in that direction, I think they'll figure it out. Nancy, what everyone is going to wonder about is the relationship with the U.S. and China going forward post this election. And we get that sort of case study with Tesla today, with the Shanghai output in their manufacturing in China, just not living up to the expectations and many worrying that they're going to hit that full year record amount of deliveries for 2024. What did you make of the data coming out of Tesla's manufacturing in China? Yeah. I mean, I think that was a bit of a disappointment. The stock doesn't seem to be under a lot of pressure, but I think we've also seen over time these fits and starts historically with not hitting numbers,

not hitting deliveries even in the US. So I haven't had a chance to really dig into it. Caroline We will. But the stock is trading as though everything is going to go perfectly. I mean, I think it's trading at a peg price earnings to growth ratio of about 40 times. And so we do need earnings and we do need earnings growth. And we did get margins expanding. I didn't think the report was that great, but I think it was a relief rally in the stock. And so we'll see what happens. Nancy. I promise there is much more we need to discuss. But our colleagues at Bloomberg Intelligence put out some basic research this morning that if Trump is to win, it's likely to impact the scope of the IRA tax credits. Do you model for that? We will if it if it happens. I think I think one of the things you have to remember, though, is it's very difficult to a lot of these analysis are done in a static environment and it's

very difficult once the new administration, whoever they are, comes in to go back and make adjustments to bills that have already been passed. And we saw that when the Republicans swept in 2016, they promised to fix or do away with Obamacare, and they did nothing. So I don't necessarily think that that's a big threat to the stock price, but we are aware of that, and we are looking at it, talking about things that are in flux and not static market capitalizations of us today. It looks like if Nvidia holds at these levels, it will be more than Apple in terms of worth $3.3436 trillion as Apple slips on the day. What do you make of Nvidia being added to the Dow? What do you make of it when crucially also who comes out of it? And of course, that being Intel. Well, sadly, Caroline, I remember when Intel was added to the Dow in 1999, and talk about bad timing, which by the way,

this committee that makes the selections often does not necessarily time these things very well. Intel is down cumulatively since 1990, end of 1999, three and a half percent. So this is a company that has not pivoted to new technologies, has squandered innovation. And so we've been out of the stock for quite some time. I think of Xerox who developed the mouse but didn't commercialize it, who commercialized it, Apple and Microsoft. So I think Vedere has stepped in the wings or has stepped onto the stage and Intel is fading to the wings. That doesn't mean the company will go out of business. But I mean, we've seen recently it's in fact, a takeover target. So I think you want to be long and Vedere here. The earnings growth is remarkable. And again, on a price earnings to growth basis, which is really how you have to look at this stock.

It's trading at 1.1 times versus, as I mentioned, Tesla over 40 and Microsoft at 2.2 times. So I think it was a good add. I don't know about the timing. We'll see. But I do think we're early in the runway and of generative AI and computing. I'll just say one last thing. I love the story Larry Ellison told about him and Elon Musk going to dinner with Jensen and just saying, Please take our money, please take more of it. Please give us more GPUs. So I think the backlog and blackmail is pretty significant, and NVIDIA is poised to do very well in the coming years.

Nvidia Rises on Intel Replacement on Dow

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Bloomberg Technology

Preparing for Trump's Potential Second Term and Musk's Role

If Trump claims a second term, Musk may take on a role in government efficiency, but the future remains uncertain.

As a Tesla investor, there's no alarm, with the mega pack business being the fastest-growing and most profitable.

Tesla's manufacturing in China has faced challenges, but the stock doesn't seem to be under significant pressure.

Stock Market Dynamics and Political Impact

The stock is trading at a high peg ratio, indicating a need for earnings and growth.

The potential impact of a Trump win on IRA tax credits is uncertain, as adjusting passed bills is challenging.

Nvidia's rising value may surpass Apple's, and its addition to the Dow raises questions about Intel's exit.

Intel has struggled since 1990, failing to pivot to new technologies and squandering innovation.

The company's decline has led to it being a takeover target, while Vedere is emerging as a strong contender.

Vedere's remarkable earnings growth and favorable price-to-earnings ratio make it an attractive investment.

NVIDIA is trading at a lower multiple compared to Tesla and Microsoft, indicating a potentially good investment.

The company is seen as being early in the generative AI and computing runway.

Larry Ellison and Elon Musk's eagerness to invest in NVIDIA's GPUs highlights the significant backlog and demand for the company's services.