Impact of Gen AI on Technology and Markets

The technology sector remains strong and not heavily impacted by the US presidential election, with significant competitive advantage and continued spending expected.

### Ark Invest's Cathie Wood: Nvidia's Bright Future and the Impact of Gen AI on the Economy
* 📈  Cathie Wood believes Nvidia's stock, which has already risen significantly, still has room to grow due to **upcoming product developments** and the **increasing adoption of GPU chips** in various sectors like healthcare and automotive.
* 🧠  Wood thinks that Gen AI, or Jedi AI, is not yet fully priced into the market, as it is expected to bring value across all sectors of the economy in terms of **innovation, cost savings, and productivity improvements**.
* 💰  As the year progresses, Wood anticipates a **broadening of market participation** and an **acceleration of earnings growth**, which could lead to **more attractive valuations for tech stocks**.
* 🔒  Wood sees private credit, particularly asset-backed lending strategies, as an interesting investment opportunity due to **banks retrenching from lending** and **marquee credit names stepping in to fill the void**.
* 🇺🇸  Regarding the impact of the U.S. presidential election on the technology sector, Wood believes that **neither candidate is anti-tech**, and major initiatives like the **CHIPS Act** are unlikely to be rolled back under either candidate.
* 🔮 " There's a **real secular trend** here.

Nancy, you're such a voice for us when
it comes to artificial intelligence, when it's hype or reality.
And I'm interested as to whether you think the second half will bode well if
you're long some of these names like in video and the chip stocks.
Well, look, trees don't grow to the sky, so we need to recognise that these
stocks have run a lot already. Having said that, you know, Nvidia has
got a lot of its sleeve in terms of new product development, right?
We've got Blackwell coming on in 2025. We've got Rubin thereafter.
And so there's quite a lot of product development in video.
Does enjoy a competitive moat in both software and hardware.
And I think we're just beginning of the purchase of these these GPU chips from
governments and other sectors like health care, the automotive sector.
So look, at the end of the day, when a stock has risen 150%, there can always
be a pullback.

But I would say we're still pretty early innings here on the Nvidia story, and that's we've done a lot on the show of late about how difficult it is, particularly for the sell side, to forecast top-line growth. You talked about Blackwell coming online. You're in the camp of people that says Gen AI is going to change everything, but it's not yet priced in. Which sectors is it not yet priced in full? Where's that not yet being reflected? Well, I think given what we've seen in the first quarter and the second quarter, in particular, the United States, the second quarter all led by the Magnificent Five, so to speak, you know, Apple and Tesla obviously lagged a bit, but it was tech, tech, and tech. And so I would say that Jenn-air has been priced in to a certain extent to those stocks. They certainly are recognized as beneficiaries. But I think the interesting thing is, you know, Jedi AI is value-added across

every sector of the economy, or at least
that's what we think. And therefore, looking ahead, we think
Jedi and its implications for innovation, cost savings, productivity,
improvements in other parts of the economy is not yet priced in.
And in any event, our view is that earnings growth will broaden and deepen
as the year progresses. It's still about tech in the second
quarter, by the way, but as the year progresses and we think that will lead
to a broadening in market participation. So actually many of our managers
remember, were open architecture at all time and have been reducing technology
to the benefit to other sectors of the economy that will, over time benefit
from churn. But also we think we'll see an
acceleration in earnings growth as the year progresses and frankly, trade on a
more attractive valuation, really important when it comes to publicly
traded equities. Not see, but what's so great about use,
we can go across asset as well and to

private assets and to nonpublic companies. It's interesting. We recently had Yammer crossing Capital Advisors head on recently who've done a partnership with LGT Diamond to look at, well, private companies from an equity perspective, but you're looking at it from a debt perspective as well. Where should one be allocating into technology or more broadly? So in technology and more broadly, let's just take private credit by way of example. We think private credit is super interesting because there's a retrenchment happening on the part of the banks. Now, you all saw the stress test last week. Banks need more capital. Basel three will be punitive in terms of ongoing capital requirements. There's a mark to market pressures on bank balance sheets and, of course, small to medium sized banks. Commercial banks that have very high exposure to the commercial real estate sector have been withdrawing from lending, not to mention funding costs going up. Okay, so what's happening here?

Banks are retrenching from lending, but marquee credit names are coming in and filling the void. We initially invested in what I call private lending direct lending strategies. More recently, we're evolving and moving into what I call asset-backed lending strategies. Again, these are kind of almost investment grade or in another name, investment-grade senior secured high up in the capital structure. And direct lending is about a 2% premium to high yield, whereas asset-backed lending is about a 4% premium to high yield. And by the way, these are being offered to, well, channels in sort of semi-liquid form. So it's not hugely illiquid and that's important as well. Nancy, how is a presidential election in the United States going to impact the technology sector? Wow. Well, the presidential election in the United States got rather entertaining last Thursday in a sort of cringe way. Dare I say, you know, we've got a long

way to go here before we know whether either candidate or obviously if there's a replacement for Biden remains to be seen. But, look, I think tech companies remain strong. Neither candidate is anti-tech. They both recognize this is a significant competitive advantage to the United States. I don't see IRA or the CHIPS Act being rolled back under either candidate. Clearly not. If President Biden wins. And these are all important supports for the tech sector, that in addition to the fact that these technology companies, you know, are spending in huge amounts on generally $200 billion, the fourth largest tech companies, of course, they are CapEx is Nvidia's revenue. And so they we think that continues irrespective of who wins the election. But this is a sector that's not really impacted by the election. There's a real secular trend here.

AlTi Tiedemann's Curtin: Nvidia Enjoying Competitive Moat

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Bloomberg Technology

Nvidia's stock has seen a significant increase, but it still has potential for growth due to upcoming product developments and increasing demand for GPU chips in various sectors.

The impact of Gen AI has been partially priced into tech stocks, but there is still potential for growth, especially in the United States.

The value of Jedi AI has not been fully reflected in certain sectors, indicating further potential for Nvidia and other chip stocks.

The Impact of Jedi on Innovation and Earnings Growth

Jedi is expected to have a significant impact on innovation, cost savings, and productivity in various sectors of the economy.

The expectation is for earnings growth to expand and strengthen throughout the year, with a shift from a focus on tech to a more widespread market participation.

Private credit is seen as particularly interesting due to a retrenchment in the banking sector, driven by increased capital requirements and market pressures, leading to a withdrawal from lending.

The Shift from Private Lending to Asset-Backed Lending

Banks are pulling back from lending, while major credit names are stepping in to fill the gap.

The transition is being made from private lending to asset-backed lending strategies, offering a 4% premium to high yield.

The impact of the US presidential election on the technology sector is also being discussed, with its recent developments being described as entertaining.

Tech Sector's Resilience to Election Outcomes

Tech companies are likely to remain strong regardless of the election outcome, as both candidates recognize their importance for the country's competitiveness.

The IRA and the CHIPS Act are not expected to be rolled back, providing important support for the tech sector, regardless of who wins the presidency.

The tech sector is driven by a real secular trend and significant investments, with its resilience not heavily impacted by the election.