Due to AI, the demand for electricity is increasing. It is true that power inflow power plants are essential for journalists and companies. Even if you dislike renewable energy, excluding it is difficult when considering the change in power generation costs and industries. This year and next year, the largest growth in the U.S. power plants is expected to be in utility-scale solar power. The necessity of nuclear power is obvious, but it cannot be achieved in the short term. It seems like the solar sector has been updated, and now, what will be the medium to long-term power mix in the U.S.? I have brought the capture directly from the materials of Consolidation Energy, the largest nuclear power operator in the U.S. If you look at this recent material from Consolidation Energy, you can see that wind power generation will increase in the U.S. in the future, and solar power generation will also increase. This industrial trend cannot be changed anyway.

The energy market in the United States is privatized, so the president alone cannot change it. Therefore, the increase in wind and solar power is almost guaranteed, and in the case of gas, the share of companies is expected to decrease. Recently, looking at trends like the Mississippi orders, I think it will at least maintain the current level. Coal is not the answer, so a decrease is appropriate. The main business of this company is nuclear power. Even though it is a nuclear power company, I heard that the proportion of nuclear power is just maintained. Maintaining the proportion means that it is increasing, but new constructions are not frequent, mostly focusing on extending the lifespan of aging nuclear power plants. It seems that the focus is on extending the lifespan of existing nuclear power plants rather than new constructions. The lifespan of nuclear power plants seems to be extended by everyone in the industry. The issue is that there are not many new constructions yet. In the previous part that I briefly didn't mention, you see that nuclear power is in red. If you look at it, nuclear power is being phased out.

There have been many times in the past, and in the same case this year, the 1.1g reactor will be installed. Due to the high construction costs, nuclear power new construction is stagnant even in the United States. Therefore, there is a need to boost this. If you look at the current situation of the U.S. nuclear power industry, in 2014, a report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration came out. Let's take a look at 2015. Most of the nuclear power plants in the U.S. had a lifespan of 30 to 40 years as of 2015. Assuming most of them extend their lifespan, by 2030, they will be around 40 to 60 years old. Typically, nuclear power plants are designed to last about 40 years, but in reality, with some part replacements and renovations, they can run for another 40 years. Therefore, ultimately, the U.S. must extend their lifespan without fail.

In the process of extending the lifespan, various parts need to be replaced, and one thing to pay attention to is the need to build a dry cask storage. Because even though the nuclear power plant itself has its own nuclear waste storage, it will be full after 40 years. So, we need to build a dry cask storage elsewhere and transfer the waste. We can't store nuclear waste in just any container, that's why we need specialized containers called casks for post-use disposal. As the lifespan extension projects increase, the demand for casks will also increase significantly. Therefore, many companies in Korea are developing technology related to these casks, and some are collaborating with European or American companies for technology development. However, in a few years, the cask market may become saturated. This is the current situation. So, rather than discussing whether to have nuclear power plants or not, it is more practical.

The story is not just about building a nuclear power plant, but it seems like there will definitely be extensions. When extending, there are inevitably additional materials that need to be used, and the name of that is called Quest. Compared to building a new nuclear power plant, it is said that the cost per unit of electricity generation when extending the lifespan of an old nuclear power plant is only about 50%. This is because only a few parts need to be changed. Therefore, extending the lifespan is almost a necessary option that advanced countries must adopt. That's how it is viewed. However, not every country can easily extend the lifespan. The chart you are looking at shows the population density of major countries. In the case of South Korea, the population density per square kilometer is 530. In fact, no matter how far you drive in South Korea, after just 30 minutes, you can see where people live. But in the United States, for example, you can drive all day and still not see people for miles.

There are many invisible places, so the population density in the United States is 36, in Ukraine 70, and in France 100. These countries are all nuclear power countries, so it's relatively easier to build nuclear power plants in empty places like this. Therefore, it is advantageous for extending life expectancy. However, countries like South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, which have limited land, face difficulties in building nuclear power plants. Despite the challenges, there is a necessity to continuously build nuclear power plants for life extension. Of course, there will naturally be opposition such as Why here, why not in other neighborhoods? It's not easy to build nuclear power plants, but in the case of the United States, there are no people to oppose it, so they just build it in the federal government's land without opposition. That's why there's a slight difference in this aspect. Well, in the U.S., there is no shortage of land.

Well, that's great to have. It's a bit like a gangster, so ultimately, it's okay to extend lifespan, but that's not enough. Ultimately, what's needed to promote the construction of new nuclear power plants is, in my opinion, in order to promote the construction of nuclear power plants in the U.S., two things are needed. First, there should be additional subsidy policies, and second, the commercialization of SMRs, small modular reactors, is necessary. Let me talk a little about additional subsidy policies. In fact, not many people know that a tax deduction for atomic energy production was introduced in the IRA last September 23rd. So, what's the content? From 2024 to three years, a tax deduction of up to $15 per megawatt-hour of nuclear electricity production will be provided. This will improve the economics of existing nuclear power plants, so most nuclear power plants will extend their lifespan as much as possible.

Policy that promotes extending lifespan is okay, but it's until 2032. However, if we wait for nuclear power plant construction, it will take more than 32 years. It's not a policy that can accelerate new nuclear power plant construction. So, what do we ultimately need? We need to deduct investment tax, for example, if the cost of nuclear power plant construction is 10 trillion won, we will deduct 30% of the investment tax, which is 3 trillion won. Currently, the system of tax deductions applied to solar power and offshore wind power is well established, and I think similar tax deduction systems should be introduced. Therefore, I believe that whether it's the Democratic Party or the Republican Party, there is a high possibility that such tax deduction systems will be introduced, as they are already talking about providing loans and tripling nuclear power plants by 2050. Thus, ultimately, nuclear power plants will also benefit from such tax deductions.

New regulations will be introduced, and that timing is considered crucial now. Secondly, it's technological development. In the case of large nuclear power plants, they are so expensive and take over ten years to build, making them unaffordable. Also, the costs are too high. However, with SMRs, breaking down a 1GW nuclear power plant into modules inevitably leads to higher generation costs. But the crucial point is that since the construction costs of a single unit are low, accessibility improves. Next to AI data centers, it may be challenging to build large power plants, but small nuclear power plants can be built sufficiently. Therefore, the commercialization of small nuclear power plants is crucial. In fact, in the SMR market, NuScale Power from the United States was considered the most advanced. However, the company's first project was abandoned in September 2023. As a result, with the expected generation costs continuously rising, customers eventually withdrew their support, leading to the first.

The first project fell through, so SMR sentiment has deteriorated a bit. Recently, Microsoft's founder Bill Gates has established a new company called TerraPower. This company actually started the construction of an SMR in June this year. The goal is to complete TerraPower's SMR by 2030. What's unique is that conventional nuclear power plants use water as a coolant, but here they use liquid sodium. It is expected that using liquid sodium will greatly improve the cooling efficiency. The reason why the change in cooling method is important is that in recent years, you may have heard a lot of news about severe droughts in Europe and the United States. In particular, in France, if you search for the France Nuclear Map on Google, you will find that about 70% of French nuclear power plants are located or used along inland rivers. France also faces shortages every summer.

These days, there is a lot of talk about the shortage of cooling water, so news often comes out that the operating rate of French nuclear power plants decreases every summer. Nuclear power plants need to be installed where there is plenty of cooling water, but if they are only located by the sea, it is difficult to transmit electricity to inland areas. This is often mentioned. So, ultimately, the cooling method is important. If the cooling efficiency improves by using liquid sodium, the site conditions become more flexible. That's why I consider TerraPower's SMR important. However, since it is expected to be completed by 2030, it will take a few years to operate and verify stability before it starts spreading globally. So, it will take some time, unfortunately. Nuclear power is an essential industry, but it will inevitably take some time to develop. In France, due to the shortage of water, near the river...

Because of the drought, there is no water, so the nuclear power plant cannot cool down and cannot operate. These kinds of problems arise. Now, we are in an era where water is scarce. Water scarcity is often mentioned due to the climate. I'm curious about this, so how does using liquid sodium work? Yes, so, I'm not from the engineering field, so I don't know the details technically, but it's said that the boiling point of liquid sodium is much higher than that of water. The vaporization level is much higher, so it requires a higher temperature to heat it. It is said to be much more efficient in providing heat. Therefore, using liquid sodium for cooling is more efficient than using water as a coolant. So, relatively, the operating environment becomes more comfortable. You don't have to worry about it like near the beach or a river, right? I see. TerraPower utilizes this method now.

Yes, that's correct. Anyway, suddenly I remember my science class. Back in the days, in science class, I remember sodium, how many electrons it had, the periodic table, and those kinds of thoughts. Using water is a much more efficient way than using water to generate electricity. Anyway, what you mentioned is that in the U.S., in order for a new nuclear power plant to start operating, to begin construction, should they provide more subsidies or should the technology advance? From the perspective of technological advancement, there are still various issues with Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), and although there are expectations for TerraPower, we need to observe it more closely. Yes, that's right. Let's summarize the content we have discussed so far. Trump's online podcast, my opinions on that, if I may say, due to AI, the electricity price will increase.

Journalists from power plant companies are correct as agents, and since they emphasize the importance of gas, it is expected that gas power generation will increase in the United States in the future. As new orders are already increasing, I also believe that it will continue to rise. Gas is the most abundant energy source, and if carbon capture is done, there is no reason not to use clean energy, right? So, it is true that gas will increase. You may dislike renewable energy, but considering the unit cost of power generation and the changes in the industry, excluding renewable energy is difficult. This year and next year, the largest growth in the U.S. power plants is expected to be in utility-scale solar power. The necessity of nuclear power is obvious, but the problem is that additional systems like tax deductions are needed to promote new construction, or small modular reactors (SMRs) need to be commercialized. It seems that both of these cannot be achieved in the short term, so we need to take a longer breath.

What needs to be taken away is the nuclear part. Let me explain. After attending Team Leader Kim Sik's seminar, I will now organize my thoughts and share them. First of all, solar power is starting to irritate me a bit because of what Trump is saying, and it may continue to be annoying in the future, but there is no alternative. The first thing that comes to mind is that. Secondly, the detailed discussion on gas was very helpful to me. So, I think it would be good for you to change your perception of gas when investing and also to look for gas-related media companies as a point of change. Additionally, regarding nuclear power, establishing new nuclear power plants receives subsidies or faces technical issues, but it is essential to extend the life of aging nuclear power plants.

Searching again is also a way to find discounts. Cast mentioned this. Through the discussion of Trump, he provided us with very important clues for finding investment ideas. I appreciate that. As Trump's story continues to be talked about, it may become more annoying and frustrating. However, we need to focus here. Only then can we invest without being shaken. Thank you to Kim Hyesuk's team for updating us in a hurry after watching the debate between Trump and Biden. We will greet you in the next session. Thank you.

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원전에 힘 빡주는 미국! 수혜받는 곳은 어디일까?⎮삼성액티브자산운용 김효식 팀장

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