Real Estate Market Analysis: Signs of Market Recovery and Future Expectations

Nongjang predicts a significant market increase as regulations ease, stimulating the real estate market.

### Nongjang's Real Estate Market Analysis and Forecast
* 🏠 Nongjang believes that the current real estate market is favorable for investment due to the **absence of regulations on multiple homeowners**.
* 📅 He emphasizes the importance of **registering for the regular lectures** and mentions that the **registration deadline is approaching**.
* 💸 Nongjang's lecture project requires significant investment in terms of **time, energy, and resources**, but he judges it to be **cost-effective**.
* 📈 He predicts that the market will continue to show signs of improvement, as many people are now **choosing to buy instead of renting**.
* 📉 Nongjang argues that the current market is unlikely to be just a temporary rebound, as it is mainly driven by **real estate speculators, not investors**.
* 📉 He suggests that the government should start **easing regulations to stimulate the market and increase the supply of new housing**.
* 🏗 Nongjang warns that the **lack of new housing supply** will become a **significant problem in the future**.
* 📆 He predicts that the **pressure for a significant market increase** will intensify in the coming months, and he plans to provide **consistent updates from the field**.

Hello, this is Nongjang. I'm greeting you from outside. It's the regular lecture period, and I'm enjoying it. Currently, if it weren't for regulations on multiple homeowners, it would be a great market to invest in, in my opinion. I prefer to take the lead rather than wait for the market to emerge and then take the results. So, there may be differences. For detailed information on regular lecture registration, please check the link below. There is a registration deadline. As you can see, I am setting the schedule for the lectures like this, so it may sound a bit strange. Unlike some people who just create lectures at home, I can do it all year round because I used to work in that field. But then it would be meaningless, and I wouldn't be helpful. Maybe in a few years, my shortcomings will be revealed.

If you can't improve your skills, it's because you can't improve your skills. When that happens, there are too many people who raise instructors, make lecture materials, delegate their work, and so on. I've seen a lot of that, so I really want to deliver lively lectures. Therefore, doing it alone won't work. The project I am currently working on involves working together with employees, which requires paying compensation for it. When you consider time, energy, and everything else, it is an investment-intensive lecture. I judge that the lecture has a very good cost-effectiveness. Reevaluation is necessary. Especially, isn't it beneficial to take Season 3 of this course? After all, don't I need to promote my lecture? That's how I think, and I am working hard. As I prepare for the lecture, I realize that it is different from what we usually think. So, in the current market, look, isn't what I'm saying correct?

I think my point is correct. I wanted to summarize this. First of all, a lot of discussions like this are happening now. You will hear a lot. It's a temporary rebound. From what I saw, it's not. Why? Because last year, for some people, it looked like a temporary rebound. Of course, last year, it went up until August or September, then suddenly dropped a bit around that time. It stopped, I mean. So, I couldn't predict that. Why? If you are living in a jeonse or monthly rent situation, then you should have at least 10 million won to buy a house. For those who don't have that, for newcomers, people who originally have a lot of money, or people with high salaries, or those who have the flexibility, they just bought a house. Last year, the good properties that led the market had almost no loans or didn't have any loans at all, and land transactions were approved.

Areas where people have their own spaces or money, those who have the leisure to move are showing such a trend, while those who do not are just pretending to be slightly okay. Hey, then isn't it a temporary rebound? No, absolutely not. You need to look at monthly rent and jeonse. How did you match the timing for the jeonse rebound? There is no demand for monthly rent. It's just about signing a contract for the place I live in. This is a zero-sum game. If you don't go this way, you have to go that way. If this side increases, the other side must decrease. If jeonse increases, monthly rent decreases. If monthly rent increases, jeonse can also decrease. There is also buying and selling involved, it goes back and forth. Tracking this can only be done on-site, and I can't do it alone. I know because I've tried, and I definitely can't do it. People who are good at it need to gather together and work with the same standards. It can't be exactly the same. Last year, the real estate market was activated.

There is a complex and the other side has a slightly improved complex, and there was a complex where the monthly rent kept increasing. In the end, the data of the sales market we wanted was coming out late, so it was moving to the other side. What about this time? Why do I insist on continuity? People are now facing maturity continuously. It's not a time when a lot is coming out yet. Now is the time to prepare for the next contract, not later. It starts from June, June, June. Originally, March, April, and May are times when people don't go house hunting much. March is a bit back and forth, especially in April. But look, there was a lot of trading volume. Why did I mention March? People didn't come out much, but they did. What I mean is, they haven't bought a house so far, they haven't made a decision. But among them, even if they come out, it shows in the market.

I know, even though the trading volume is not high, so this time, I sense a movement towards choosing to buy instead of rent or lease, unlike the relatively low volume compared to the past two years. Therefore, I am observing and following that movement. So, I expect that there will be more areas showing signs of improvement, and I believe there will be an increase. Also, one more thing, it is a temporary rebound. When it comes to a temporary rebound, those who are buying houses now become investors. Investors have their decisions set, either buy or not. So, if there are no urgent sales, they stop, or if they don't feel an upward trend, they stop. Because these people quickly feel a limit due to loans or tax regulations, they cannot raise the market by themselves. They cannot lift what is at the bottom. I'm not sure how much recovery there will be, but what you think.

Investors can't push the market up. If the price goes up as soon as they enter, they won't buy it. What is the purpose of these people? They buy cheap and sell expensive. It's not really working out. These people don't have that much money overflowing. In fact, that's why markets intervened by investors tend to temporarily rebound, and in many cases, quite often. I've seen a lot in the local market, but now there are no investors. Multiple homeowners cannot invest. Unless you have extraordinary skills or extraordinary stamina, the chances of failure are not very high. People who are currently buying houses are just ordinary people. They are different from what the media says. The land trade permission zone has been raised, so multiple homeowners cannot come out. Everyone knows this, so those who are moving the market now are real estate speculators. Knowing this, I think it's a structure that is unlikely to end with just a temporary rebound.

Over the past two years, many people haven't bought houses. Among those people, if even a small portion starts buying, creating a sense of continuity and a positive atmosphere in the market, the chances of choosing to buy instead of renting (monthly or long-term) are relatively high compared to the past two years. Also, many of the points I have argued have already been reflected in the market from March to April, May, and now until June. The market sentiment has changed. I believe that it's not just my baseless assumption; it has already been confirmed through data and media. Furthermore, I need to mention one more thing. Interest rates. I will talk about interest rates in more detail next time because it's not the most critical aspect in the market right now. Prices can only rise if interest rates go down. If interest rates do not decrease, market activation will be challenging. I think the part about interest rates will soon be revealed to be true. I believe that those who have been bearish for the past two years will be proven wrong soon.

Some people praised me for starting during the downturn. They are not following now. Their 2024 forecast was all wrong, and now they are changing everything. Because I asked my staff to monitor them, as they have a big influence on the market. Not a single one got it right, and they are changing everything. So, for those of you who like that, I dare you to search for the 2024 forecast made by a Harvard professor you admire so much. See how it turns out. I'm the one who got the 2024 forecast right. Saying this may not sit well with some people, but from my perspective, I believe that predicting the market with 100% accuracy is like mimicking God, it's unreasonable. When I look at it in percentages, if I got it right to a certain extent, then I consider it a good evaluation. In that sense, it was not a bad prediction. I am thinking.

So, today's video ends with a different topic. That is about tax regulations and requirements, and loosening loans. Many people have been saying that if the regulations on DSR, which is a measure of debt-to-income ratio, are not loosened, the market cannot survive. Lately, there has been a sudden shift in discussions, moving away from this topic. The theory was wrong, just like what the doomsayers used to say in the past, but now they are also changing their tune as the market moves. They might now be considering buying a house if the conditions are right. Because I used to believe in those words in the past, realistically, there are some parts that are hard to empathize with. But if you look at it now, there have been hardly any loosening of regulations compared to the previous government. The loan regulations remain the same, and property acquisition tax, comprehensive real estate tax, and transfer income tax are still high.

It's in a harmful state. Everything else is the same. But now, we are talking about easing regulations, talking about taxes, property taxes and such. However, many people may still think that even now, interest rates need to go down in order for them to go up. They say that taxes need to be eased. I have a different opinion on this. Even if interest rates don't go down, even if property acquisition taxes or property taxes increase, I think we should go on the path to the market. We need to ease up on the market. We need to do it moderately because people have been completely unable to buy houses. To what extent have they been unable to buy? Construction is not happening. It has become a world where houses are not being built. So, something needs to come out. Nothing is being sensed now. So, in my opinion, if the market wants to restart the supply when the supply is stopped, it needs to happen from the current state.

In the end, it seems inevitable to induce price increases in the real estate market. If the government has the determination, when looking at all those aspects, the government should actually start loosening regulations from now on. It has already been mentioned. However, in the current state, if the market itself is trying to recover or if a rebound is coming, then if regulations are lifted at that point, prices will rise even more. As I mentioned, it's too late now, there is no need to do it now. It must be done, but the reason for lifting regulations now is not to control the market, but to increase the supply of new housing. This is the worst-case scenario. This is a failure of the government's market control. It's not about creating a comfortable world where people can find suitable housing or contracts that suit them, that's already over. The timing has been missed. When I was a minister.

The timing has passed, and it's over. There is no new supply now. What's the problem with no new supply? I will talk about this next time. It's not a secret, but all houses get old. They may not be visible, but they do. And there is no one who wants to live in an old house. However, disappearing houses, although not visible to us, continue to appear. The new supply is currently slowing down. After a few years, this will become very noticeable. But no one is talking about it. So, we need to increase the new supply no matter what. In the future, from the government's perspective, redevelopment, reconstruction, and new town projects should be done well. Something needs to be done. But it's not going well now to do this well. Regulations need to be eased. From what I see, this movement can stimulate the market. Whether you look at it from this side or that side.

Oh, I believe that the pressure for a significant market increase has started to intensify. Eventually, it won't take long, in June, July, and August, three long months, you will see whether my previous statements were correct or not. Let's watch together. I will consistently provide updates from the field. Have a great day, and that's it for my video. I hope it was helpful. Thank you.

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얼음공장의 반백수 프로젝트

Nongjang believes it's a great time to invest, despite regulations on multiple homeowners.

He emphasizes the need for lively lectures and the importance of working with employees for a cost-effective investment.

The current market trends and the impact of last year's property market are also key points of Nongjang's insights.

The real estate market is currently experiencing a shift from renting to buying, especially in areas with low trading volume.

This trend is expected to lead to an increase in housing sales and a temporary rebound in the market.

However, the potential for long-term growth is limited by the decisions of investors and external financial regulations.

The Role of Investors and Real Estate Speculators in the Current Housing Market

Investors are struggling to push the market up as they typically aim to buy low and sell high, but with limited resources.

The current market is driven more by real estate speculators and a potential shift in buyer sentiment, rather than multiple homeowners or investors.

The speaker believes that the market is likely to see a sustained positive trend due to changing market sentiment and the influence of real estate speculators, despite the uncertainty of interest rates.

The Changing Tide of Market Regulations and Housing

Recent discussions have shifted towards the loosening of tax regulations and requirements for housing loans.

Despite the belief that interest rates and taxes need to decrease, the speaker argues for a moderate easing of market regulations to address the current housing shortage.

The speaker criticizes the government for not taking action sooner and warns that lifting regulations now may lead to further price increases in the real estate market.

The decrease in new housing supply is a growing problem that will soon become very noticeable.

The aging houses and slowing new supply are not being adequately addressed, requiring a need for redevelopment and new construction projects.

Easing regulations and stimulating the housing market are crucial for addressing this issue before it intensifies further.