At the current time, on the 7th day in a square in Paris, France, there was a crowd waving flags and cheering the results of the exit polls for the general election. They were in a festive mood. The National Union, classified as a conservative party that won by a large margin in the first round of voting, was not expected to secure a majority according to the poll results. In reality, the leftist coalition, the People's Front, won 18 out of the 577 seats in the lower house, rising to the top party position. President Macron's expectations were pushed to third place. In our country, the main opposition party, the Labour Party, which has always been passionate about rebuilding France, increased its seats by a significant 21 compared to the general election five years ago, securing 41 out of the 650 seats in the lower house. On the other hand, the ruling conservative party suffered its worst performance in nearly 190 years, to the extent that the term massacre was used. How are the domestic situations in the UK and France leading to such evaluations of public opinion?

First, let's look at the economic situation in the UK. The Conservative Party, which has been in power for 14 years, has deteriorated significantly. Factors such as Brexit, the Russia-Ukraine war, and high inflation have collectively affected the UK economy, showing a weak performance. The GDP growth rate has fallen to the lowest level among the G7 countries. In particular, the sharp rise in the cost of living is perceived as the biggest problem for the working class in the UK. According to the UK's Office for National Statistics, the consumer price index rose by 2.0% annually in May, down from the peak of 11.1%, but it is still a burden for the working class. As a result, a record number of people are relying on food banks, and a survey has shown that one in four Britons skips meals. This year, the growth rate is expected to be around 0.5%, excluding the impact of COVID-19, which is the lowest in the past decade or so.

It has the lowest growth rate, and the most direct reason for the high inflation rate can be attributed to the increase in energy and food prices due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Because people's lives are difficult, opposition to the current government is likely to increase. Looking more long-term, the decision on Brexit in 2016 and the withdrawal from the EU in early 2021 in the UK, it's the aftermath of Brexit. Opinion polls and businesses surveyed the British people at the end of May. 73% of respondents said that the current situation in the UK is worse than in the 2010s. When asked about the deteriorated areas, many pointed out not only living costs but also public health services, immigration systems, and economic difficulties as issues. Energy prices are rising, and the economic turmoil after Brexit is now.

It seems like the main issue was inflation rising, unemployment, and a livelihood crisis, so it's understandable that there would be a lot of dissatisfaction with the current ruling conservative party. In such a situation, through the wine party, distrust towards the ruling party seems to have significantly increased. Ultimately, British voters, who have perceived a decline in overall quality of life not only in the economy but also in public healthcare, immigration system, housing issues, etc., have judged and sentenced the ruling party due to the ineffective leadership and response of the existing conservative government over the past 14 years, from David Cameron to Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, and Rishi Sunak. Analyzing the French election process, it is said that there is a similar discontent among French voters in general. In particular, in the first round, voters overwhelmingly supported the country's union instead of the ruling party with a moderate stance.

The assessment of the judge's character being strong is coming out. Expectations for the Macron government, which has entered its 7th year of arbitrary success, have turned into anger, which was manifested by the surge of public union. There were high budget deficits and national debt issues, and also, there were difficult parts as the economic recovery did not go well after the coronavirus. Hasn't the Macron government been making great efforts to restore fiscal soundness now? However, it seems that it was somewhat ineffective in soothing economic discontent. The situation is a bit different from the UK, but in the case of France, not only immigration issues but also domestic economic stagnation, job losses, and then difficulties in people's livelihoods due to rising prices are the major reasons why the support for the ruling party is increasing. As of 2022, more than 40% of all refugees entering 27 countries are in Germany and France.

It is inevitable that a more sensitive political environment towards refugees and immigrants will be formed in Germany and France, and life has become difficult. Extreme parties have gradually gained recognition as a result of presenting solutions to this issue, and on the other hand, it can be seen that mainstream parties have not adequately presented solutions. In France, the inflation rate has shown a downward trend over the past year since the beginning of last year, and the unemployment rate, which was at 9% when President Macron took office, has dropped to the 7% mark, recording the lowest level in 40 years. While some economic indicators have improved, a survey shows that about 82% of French citizens perceive that their country's economic situation is not good. President Macron is overwhelmingly dedicated to structural reforms that his predecessors did not dare to undertake.

The nationwide strike and protests were also triggered by opposition. For example, Macron decided to gradually raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, which faced strong opposition. As a result, left-wing alliances are now proposing to revert to the original retirement age of 60. They are expressing various economic policy disagreements. Due to these issues, the left-wing alliance is gaining momentum, especially because of the recent strikes. Ultimately, Macron faced significant discontent from the French people regarding his diverse economic and reform policies. It could be interpreted that the left-wing alliance is fueling this dissatisfaction.

The coalition has garnered support from right-wing conservatives by expanding tax cuts and welfare, protecting the French economy, and maintaining an anti-immigrant stance, while justifying the expansion of taxes as a means to enhance national security and protect national identity, thereby reducing voter resistance and achieving remarkable results as a third party. President Macron attempted to reform pensions by trying to delay the age at which pensions could be received, but after withdrawing this, there are arguments to lower the age of pension collection. They are suggesting strengthening taxation on the wealthy and financial assets, which is very similar to the arguments of the left-wing parties. On the other hand, they are very strict about immigration policies, emphasizing the need to control immigration itself. They are very negative about the European Union system, advocating for Euroscepticism. In fact, they promote this Euroscepticism, which is why they talk about strengthening taxation on the wealthy.

People in the market or many people are concerned about the takeover of the Gu administration because the reason is that the system could be shaken. They are now putting forward policies such as immigration restrictions, changes in nationality laws, national preference, and dual citizenship restrictions to gain support from voters. They are trying to reduce benefits in various areas such as treating French citizens preferentially and cutting benefits for foreigners in employment, welfare, and housing support. They are showing similarities with the support based on racial discrimination and exclusivism, advocating for public office restrictions for dual citizens of specific countries. It is a misunderstanding to worry only about concerns that resemble concerns about the second Nazi based on the support based on racial discrimination and exclusivism. In particular, as I mentioned earlier, the restrictions on dual citizenship and national preference are similar to what was done in the past with racial policies.

It seems like we are talking a lot about lies in terms of meaning, but the sudden rise of the Gugu phenomenon this year is not simply due to racial discrimination or white supremacy, but a result of a combination of complex social and economic factors, as well as the anxiety and dissatisfaction of the youth all coming together like a mixed department store. What the general elections in the UK and France ultimately indicate is the confirmation of the obvious proposition that if the government does not listen to the public sentiment and take care of their livelihoods well, they will inevitably fail. Especially in Europe, due to the war in Russia and Ukraine, there has been a record of unprecedented inflation, causing both the French and British citizens to naturally demand various policies that can better support public sentiment. This kind of demand for policies is currently needed.

Despite the demand, it can be said that there was a judgment that we were not able to respond more flexibly and quickly to this. In a way, this was expressed in both sides of the parliament in the recent election. I think I can now say that the most important thing is solving the livelihood and economic issues. It has been evaluated that it is important to pursue universal policies that more people can agree on in the process of solving these issues and also to expand the support base. Up until now, it has been passive.

'살인적 물가'에 허덕이던 민심, 결국 '정권 심판'...프랑스·영국 총선 결과에 담긴 함의는?/ SBS 뉴스 / 딥빽

지식플랫폼 스프 앱 출시 지금 다운로드!