South Korean Stocks: Current Valuations and Future Outlook

Naver's low valuation presents a unique opportunity for potential growth amid challenges in the AI-driven search market.

### Market Insights: Naver as a Value Stock, Nuclear Energy, and Asset Allocation
* 📉  Kakao and Naver are currently experiencing different trajectories, with Naver transitioning from a growth stock to a value stock, reflected in its **low PBR of 0.96 for 2024**.
* 🔍  The discussion highlights Naver's **potential resilience in the search market** against global competitors like Google, especially in **niche areas where data protection laws may limit the use of certain tools**.
* ⚛️  The conversation also touches on the future of nuclear energy, suggesting a **potential global shift towards expanding nuclear power** as countries seek **reliable energy sources**.
* 🚗  The automotive sector, particularly companies like Hyundai and Kia, is highlighted for its **strong performance and undervaluation**, with expectations of **continued earnings growth**.
* 💉  While the expert is positive about Samsung Biologics and Celltrion in the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors, they caution that **valuation pressure exists** and that **careful selection is necessary**.
* 💰  The importance of strategic asset allocation is emphasized, with a suggested ratio of **over 50% in stocks**, about **30% in bonds**, and around **20% in other assets** such as gold, real estate, and income-generating assets.
* 🪙  Bitcoin is discussed as a **risky asset** that has entered the institutional realm to some extent, with the expert suggesting that it may **not disappear in the next 30 years** due to demand from various sectors.
* 📈  The expert encourages a long-term perspective on investing, noting that despite correction periods, stocks tend to **rise in the long run**, especially considering the **current cheap valuations of South Korean stocks**.

Our country's stocks are currently very cheap due to fundamentals. I'm not sure about Kakao, but Naver's valuation is low right now. Naver is no longer a growth stock; it has become a value stock. The automotive sector has also risen significantly. In the past, the internet sector, including Naver and Kakao, was not doing well, but is it coming back to life now? Nowadays, I can't really see what the picture looks like, and it's truly unfortunate. I'm also watching this market, but I think it's really difficult for individual investors. Oh, it has dropped further. Just a few years ago, Kakao had an incredible storytelling narrative, but it continues to fall. At that time, Kakao was highly praised, and last year, there was a lot of hype about secondary batteries and cathodes. Individual investors who got involved in those stocks ended up getting stuck.

It seems quite difficult, but I don't know much about Kakao. However, Naver's valuation is currently low. Naver is no longer a growth stock; it is a value stock. Naver's price-to-book ratio (PBR) is likely below 2. You should check it out; the PBR is 0.96. This is for the estimated 2024, so it has now entered the realm of value stocks. Therefore, in the case of Naver, if just a slightly positive story emerges, its earnings won't deteriorate. So, what we are looking at is something like this: when AI becomes mainstream, one of Naver's key sources of revenue is search. There are concerns about whether it can survive in the search market. The question is how it can overcome these challenges in the age of AI. However, I also think about this: when Google dominated the global search market, Naver managed to survive in Korea. It could be similar in this case.

When companies like Microsoft's Copilot or Google's Gemini come into play, if Naver manages to survive as a niche market player, it could be re-evaluated. For example, in South Korea, large corporations and the government cannot yet use tools like Copilot or Gemini due to data issues. The secrets of our companies and the state cannot be transferred outside. In that context, I believe there is potential for Naver to exist as a player in South Korea. If there is a bit more confidence in that, it will receive a re-evaluation. After all, it is still a software company, yet its price-to-book ratio (PBR) is below 1. Even though the secondary battery sector has dropped significantly, other companies have PBRs of 10 or 20.

Isn't the defense industry somewhat undervalued? Even if that's the case, it doesn't mean that Naver will disappear. It would be tough, right? In that context, those who look far ahead can invest in value stocks. Recently, the defense sector has been very hot; Korea is doing well with exports. How do you see it? It's good, but it has risen a lot, hasn't it? The defense stocks have also gone up significantly. If you look at companies like Raytheon and SpaceX, they have increased a lot. I wonder if they can keep rising like this. On the other hand, I think the nuclear power sector is quite promising. Our country's order from the Czech Republic—well, that became a negative factor, causing the stock prices to drop significantly. Before the Czech discussions, the prices had already gone down, but ultimately, the power issue remains. AI is currently a huge topic.

Nuclear power consumes electricity, and the issues surrounding energy remain. Similarly, there are environmental issues related to green energy. Without alternatives, countries will ultimately adopt policies to expand nuclear power. Germany, for example, is in a difficult situation. After the Chernobyl disaster, political pressure from progressive factions led to the abandonment of nuclear power in favor of natural gas, which resulted in reliance on Russian gas. This strategy has failed. Germany, which used to be a manufacturing powerhouse, is now facing significant challenges. Therefore, I believe Europe is moving towards expanding nuclear power, and the same goes for the United States. In my view, countries will shift towards expanding nuclear energy in terms of energy policy.

SMR, or Small Modular Reactor, has a very low accident probability. If SMRs become commercialized, we will likely see further advancements in that direction. Currently, the American company NuScale Power has received approval for SMR technology, indicating that as SMRs move toward commercialization, they could become a significant growth sector for nuclear power. In this context, the automotive sector, particularly companies like Hyundai and Kia, has shown strong performance this year. Their earnings have been impressive, and they were undervalued despite good results. Last year, stocks like these saw significant increases, and now they have risen considerably. There are expectations that earnings will continue to improve, so they might just match market returns.

Now that interest rate cuts are starting, will the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors, like Samsung Biologics and Celltrion, improve? I’m not an expert, so it's hard for me to comment. However, I have a positive view on Samsung Biologics and Celltrion. There is valuation pressure, but nonetheless, in the CMO and CDMO markets, and considering their in-house development capabilities and R&D capabilities, they are expected to continue growing. Therefore, it's reasonable to have a positive outlook. As for the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors, I’m not sure, but those with expertise know that these stocks are not merely about valuation, right? They are about future growth potential. Stocks that can assess future growth potential have already risen significantly. Still, I think they can continue to attract attention in the market. It seems to be the same case.

Because if you look at it, the stocks of companies related to obesity treatment in our country have all gone up, right? About ten of them have come out. So, we have to be careful there and distinguish between what's good and what's not. Otherwise, next year, we might see a drop in value. Today, I looked at many sectors, but among Korean stocks, which industries do you think are currently ambiguous or should be avoided from August to October? I think it's better to avoid some of them. The stocks that have risen a lot are usually those that have been heavily promoted by YouTubers, and they are often quite expensive in terms of valuation. Stocks that have been trending for six months to a year tend to have a significant drop in value after that period. So, we should be cautious about those. And right now, there are some sectors that look very cheap and are somewhat undervalued.

You mentioned earlier about various topics. It's not necessarily about specific discussions; it can be based on personal observations. Now, from August to December this year, there are various assets like savings, bonds, stocks, gold, dollars, and Bitcoin. Earlier, when considering economic crises or recessions, it was suggested to accumulate long-term bonds or gold. However, when thinking about the remaining months from August to December, what kind of assets should we gather? What I want to convey is that constantly adjusting assets based on the situation is not a viable solution. There is no definitive answer. Relying on market timing to make money is highly unlikely to succeed. So, what should we do? We need to implement a strategic asset allocation. For individuals, especially those with very small amounts, this may be a difficult conversation, but if you have even a little bit of capital, say around 100 million won...

Even if you move on, you need to allocate your assets. You should divide them into stocks, bonds, and other assets, and allocate your assets accordingly. For me, the ratio is that stocks should be over 50%, bonds should be about 30%, and other assets should be around 20%. Within that, you can adjust plus or minus 10%, or even plus or minus 20%. If you allocate your assets in this way, it will represent a much better median. If you keep jumping from one thing to another, thinking this is good and then that is good, you will end up buying high and selling low, which will reduce your assets. So, the worst approach is to buy something because it seems good this time and sell something else. I think it's important to have your own strategic asset allocation. In my opinion, you can put a lot into other assets, as they can include various options.

Now, the risk-return profile is for medium-risk, medium-return assets. Bonds or deposits can be seen as somewhat stable assets. Other assets we can consider include gold, real estate, and income-generating assets. Income assets can also fall into that category. Additionally, dividend stocks can be viewed as other assets. If someone wants to diversify further, they could include foreign currencies or cryptocurrencies. I observe Bitcoin as well. When looking at the market, what I feel is that in the past, Bitcoin had a different correlation with stocks and other assets. It moved differently, which made it a potential target for diversification. However, these days, it tends to move in sync with the Nasdaq. So, it has become a completely risky asset.

It seems that in this context, it might be difficult to approach it from a decentralized projection perspective. However, will Bitcoin disappear? It might not disappear, but perhaps 100 years from now, it could. When I talk about this in my university lectures, I often mention how we always discuss the Tulip Mania law in the Netherlands. Right now, no one invests in tulips as an investment target. Perhaps, in 100 years, Bitcoin could end up in a similar situation. However, at least for the next 30 years, I don't think that will be the case. This is because there is still demand for Bitcoin. There is a significant demand coming from less favorable sectors, like the black market. When Bitcoin rose recently, there were several factors, but the biggest issue was the approval of the Bitcoin ETF. Additionally, the conflict between Hamas and Israel has also played a role.

They attacked, and there was a rumor that they funded it with Bitcoin. It wasn't something to be taken lightly, but those rumors existed. Nevertheless, black markets do exist in this world. From my perspective, there are many fearful people, especially with the recent Russia-Ukraine war. I believe that wealthy individuals from Russia and other dictatorial countries likely hold Bitcoin. They must have it. Furthermore, illicit money is traded in Bitcoin, and drugs are also traded in Bitcoin. Even wealthy individuals in our country would likely hold Bitcoin if necessary. So, I don't think that the position of Bitcoin as an asset will disappear. After all, Bitcoin has a certain level of scarcity since it isn't continuously reproduced. I believe that a portion of it has significant meaning. In reality, now...

The director is from the Government Employees Pension Service and then from a similar company in the private sector. How do people in asset management view Bitcoin? It has now entered the institutional realm, hasn't it? Because, you know, BlackRock has launched an ETF. Yes, that's right. So, it has entered the institutional realm to some extent, and we need to accept that. However, when it comes to currencies, that's a different story; it's a bit ambiguous. But we should see it as an asset that has entered the institutional realm. 

Now, if you have any final personal thoughts you'd like to share, please go ahead. Well, I often think that investing is a difficult path, so one has no choice but to set their own standards. And you must always look at valuations and follow the storytelling reports, but I've been caught off guard many times in between. So, regarding the assets I invest in...

Is the valuation okay? I think it's good to have a positive mindset. Even if it seems like the world is going to end, it doesn't actually end. Difficult times do pass, and recovery happens. I think stocks are similar; there are periods of correction, but in the long run, they tend to rise. The correction periods may be short, and I don't know about South Korean stocks, but in the case of U.S. stocks, the periods of increase are always longer than the correction periods. Moreover, South Korean stocks are currently very cheap for fundamental reasons. So, from that perspective, there’s no choice but for foreign investors to come in and buy a lot. Since the National Pension Service isn’t buying, we have to ask if citizens should invest in stocks that the National Pension Service isn’t purchasing. It's unfortunate that the National Pension Service isn’t investing in South Korean stocks, but it's not because they view them negatively; it's due to certain structural reasons that prevent them from doing so. So, foreign investors...

It's a difficult time, but I hope everyone endures with a positive mindset and holds onto their own standards. I wish that by the end of next year, we will be able to generate profits. I hope that what I shared has been somewhat helpful. I look forward to meeting with Director Lee Chang-eun again around the end of this year to discuss the market outlook for 2025. Thank you very much for spending this precious time with us today. You've worked hard. Thank you.

한국주식 지금 너무 쌉니다, 지금 사놓으면 큰 부가 된다 (이창훈 단장)

출연 신청/제휴 문의: smilekdy7@naver.com

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Current Stock Market Trends and Naver's Valuation

The country's stocks are cheap, with Naver transitioning from a growth to a value stock, currently having a low price-to-book ratio of 0.

The internet sector, including Naver and Kakao, struggled in the past but may be showing signs of recovery.

Naver's potential to survive in the AI-dominated search market and its role as a niche player in South Korea could lead to a re-evaluation of its value.

The Shift Towards Expanding Nuclear Power

Countries are likely to adopt policies to expand nuclear power due to ongoing energy issues and the failure of alternative strategies, like Germany's reliance on Russian gas.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) have a low accident probability and their commercialization, led by companies like NuScale Power, could significantly boost the nuclear power sector.

The automotive sector, particularly Hyundai and Kia, has shown strong performance and is expected to continue growing, while the pharmaceutical and biotech sectors may also attract attention due to their future growth potential.

Caution in Investing: Trends and Asset Allocation

Stocks related to obesity treatment have risen, but caution is needed to avoid potential value drops.

Trending stocks, often heavily promoted, are risky and may lead to significant losses after a period of growth.

A strategic asset allocation is recommended, with over 50% in stocks, 30% in bonds, and 20% in other assets, to avoid the pitfalls of market timing and impulsive trading.

The Risk-Return Profile of Medium-Risk Assets

Medium-risk, medium-return assets include bonds, deposits, gold, real estate, and income-generating assets.

Dividend stocks and foreign currencies or cryptocurrencies can also be considered for diversification.

Bitcoin's correlation with stocks has changed, making it a riskier asset, but its demand from less favorable sectors and its scarcity may ensure its continued relevance in the future.

Asset Management's View on Bitcoin and Investing Trends

Bitcoin has entered the institutional realm, notably with BlackRock launching an ETF.

The director emphasizes the importance of setting personal investment standards and maintaining a positive mindset during difficult times.

South Korean stocks are currently cheap, potentially attracting foreign investors, while the National Pension Service's lack of investment in them is due to structural reasons.