Ukraine War: Dimensions, Impacts, and Future Perspectives

The ongoing war in Ukraine reveals complex geopolitical dynamics, with Ukraine caught between Russian aggression and Western interests.

### The Ongoing War in Ukraine: Geopolitical Dimensions and Economic Impacts
* 🌍 The war in Ukraine has two dimensions: a Russia-Ukraine conflict and a Russia-West confrontation, with the West aiming to **contain Russia in the Black Sea basin**.
* 💣 Western powers, particularly the UK and US, are seen as prolonging the war to turn Ukraine into a **quagmire for Russia**, similar to the Soviet experience in Afghanistan.
* 🇷🇺 Russia's initial military objectives, including **capturing Kyiv**, have not been fully achieved, leading to a **longer and more challenging conflict** than anticipated.
* 🏙 Life in Kyiv appears relatively normal, with **limited direct attacks on the city**, potentially due to its **symbolic and historical significance** for both Russians and Ukrainians.
* 🚢 Trade with Ukraine continues primarily via land routes through Bulgaria and Romania, with **occasional risky sea routes** despite previous agreements being broken.
* 🌾 Ukraine's agricultural sector, particularly its grain exports, remains **crucial for the country's economy and international trade**.
* 💼 The war has lasting economic impacts on both Russia and Ukraine, with Ukraine **losing its status as an economic power** and Russia facing **military losses and economic challenges**.
* 📚 The conflict's unique aspects, including **historical, cultural, and geopolitical factors**, contribute to its **complexity and ongoing nature**.

Dear L TV friends, I greet you all with respect and love. I want to find the answers to the questions together. First of all, I would like to thank all the LOG TV viewers, their friends, and my dear journalist friend Deniz Berkay, who joined this broadcast from Ukraine. 

I would like to start with a question that might be on many people's minds: What is expected regarding the war in Ukraine? There is a perception that, regardless of what Russia wants, especially England and America want this war to continue. My first question is about that. 

My second question is a bit more mundane. Of course, we wish for life in Ukraine to continue normally for the people. However, it seems a bit strange that in such a large war, and with your enemy being Russia, life should not be continuing normally in many parts of Ukraine, especially in the capital. Yet, the images we receive from Kyiv, thanks to Deniz, suggest that life seems normal there. Is this due to some sort of tacit agreement between the parties, like you won't hit Kyiv?

I will not strike Moscow, otherwise, Kiev's air defense system is very strong. This is where it comes from. Welcome, Mr. Deniz. I would like to briefly introduce you to the Logi TV viewers. Yes, I can say this: you already come to my news articles. Besides that, I have been reporting from Ukraine since 2007, and during the war period, with some exceptions, I continued to report from Kiev even during the toughest times of the war. The war has been ongoing for 2.5 years now, and unless I count my trips to Turkey every two weeks, I have been actively reporting here since then. Additionally, I have a YouTube channel where I share daily updates, which I humbly recommend. Moreover, I would like to present my book, which explains who Ukrainians are in the clearest way and how we arrived at this war, written in an easily readable style. Let me hold it up: Ukraine: The Political Fault Line of the World.

The name of the book is Yesterday and Today. This is the most comprehensive book in Turkish for those who want to learn about Ukraine in detail. By the way, the preface of the book was written by my university professor, İlber Ortaylı. I humbly recommend it to those interested in Ukraine. Yes, I have a current question. The nature of this war is quite different from the wars we are accustomed to or read about in books. Two countries are at war, and during the initial phase of the conflict, there was an attempt to seize the capital, Kyiv. Life in Kyiv seems to continue despite this. Is this due to a tacit agreement between the parties, Ukraine and Russia, or is it because Kyiv has very strong air defense systems? I would like to ask this question. We can say that it is a broad question. First of all, the point I have already mentioned in the book and continuously emphasize is this: the current war, namely the Russia-Ukraine war, has two different dimensions.

When we look at the war from the first dimension, it is a Russia-Ukraine war. From this perspective, what do we see? We see that Russia has violated Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. In this sense, Russia is in the position of an occupying country. This is the first dimension of the war. However, the second dimension of the war is that this conflict is also a Russia-West confrontation, meaning a conflict between Russia and America. One of the conflict zones is Ukraine, and we can say that Ukraine is somewhat a victim of this conflict. From this perspective, what do we see? America and England are trying to establish their influence and presence in the Black Sea basin. They are attempting to encircle Russia with a strategy of containment. Therefore, it would not be correct to view this war solely as a Russia-West war while ignoring Ukraine's victimization. The territory of a sovereign country like Ukraine is being violated, but it is also incorrect to see this war merely as a Russia-Ukraine war while disregarding the West's stance.

It is necessary to consider both dimensions simultaneously. If we take an example from our history, let's look at World War I. In World War I, both England and Germany were colonial countries, and what were they doing among themselves? They were trying to share their colonies; they had their eyes set on each other's colonies. So, what were we, the Turks, doing during World War I? We were trying to protect our country against the English and the Russians. In other words, for us, the war was a defense of the homeland. However, when we look at it from the perspective of England and Germany, World War I was a colonial sharing war. Thus, the war has these two different dimensions. Additionally, when we examine the course of the war, England and America actually did not want the war to end easily. In fact, they had the opportunity to stop Russia at that time. The Ukrainian administration, which was able to stop Russia before the war, also states this. After the war began, Ukraine made relatively mild concessions.

Let’s recall the negotiation process in Istanbul, where representatives from Russia and Ukraine came together under Turkey's leadership. An agreement, a preliminary agreement, had been reached. However, what happened next? The then British Prime Minister Boris Johnson immediately came to Kyiv and held a closed-door meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky. Later, it was reported that Boris Johnson called on Zelensky not to negotiate with Russia. Following this event, the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine came to an end. This occurred in 2022, shortly after the war had just begun, or about a month into it. At that time, this situation could have been resolved, but England intervened, and as a result, what happened? Ukraine suffered much greater losses, and Russia seized more territory in Ukraine. Currently, Ukraine is gradually losing its status as an economic power and its importance as a significant force in the region, due to the ongoing nature of the war. The war is currently damaging Russia as well.

However, it is also harming Ukraine, and there is this: for example, if a war breaks out or a crisis occurs, when the crisis is resolved, what happens? The conflicting parties come together and say that one side can provide the other side with an opportunity to retreat, allowing for a way out. In negotiations, there could have been a possibility for Russia to withdraw while maintaining its image. However, at that time, in 2022, the British Foreign Secretary, Liz Truss, had said, No, we will not provide Putin with a way to maintain his image. In other words, she indicated that they wanted the continuation of the war. So, why do the British and Americans want this? Why do they want the war to continue? Because they want Ukraine to turn into a quagmire for Russia, just like Afghanistan. Remember that the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and remained there until 1989, and this Afghan adventure...

The invasion had brought an end to the Soviet regime at that time. Just as the Afghan adventure, the invasion of Afghanistan led to the downfall of the Soviet Union, the United States and the United Kingdom want the Ukraine war to become a quagmire that will deplete the power of the current Russian regime. For that reason, they particularly want the war to continue. One must consider their own ambitions in this context. Do you think Russia is pursuing a strategy that will turn this war into a quagmire? It seems that, during this first phase of the war, Russia is almost restructuring itself. Economically, it hasn’t shown much strain; it doesn’t project an image of being stuck in a quagmire like it did in Afghanistan. However, it must be noted that this war has not met anyone's expectations. We can say that everyone’s calculations have gone wrong. From Russia's perspective, what happened was that they had calculated they could enter Kiev in a short time. Perhaps not in three days, but they thought they could take Kiev in about ten days.

Nothing happened, Russia suffered a significant loss of power from this perspective, but the expectations of Western countries also did not materialize. What did Western countries predict? They thought that the Western world would impose sanctions on Russia, and that Russia would be subdued in a short time. Such predictions were made, but then Russia could not capture Kyiv. When the Ukrainian army launched a counteroffensive at the end of 2022 and achieved success in some areas, there was an expectation that this counterattack would continue all the way to Crimea. Those kinds of expectations were there. However, this war has shown us, first and foremost, that the world is not solely comprised of the West. Despite the entire Western world imposing sanctions on Russia, the Russian economy, rather than shrinking, actually grew stronger. Of course, this was influenced by the fact that the Russian administration had been preparing a backup plan for months before the invasion of Ukraine. They were thinking, If the West imposes sanctions on us, what will we do? Thus, they had a backup plan in place.

They are prepared. It also has an effect. However, there is this: Okay, in what aspects has Russia failed? When we look at the Russian Black Sea Fleet, it is constantly targeted by Ukrainian strikes, and the Russians had to withdraw the fleet from the Crimean Peninsula, for example. Additionally, various facilities in Russia are being bombed, which has led to significant military losses for Russia. Therefore, especially when we look at the beginning of the war, in 2022, it was a period where the war was completely against Russia. At that time, America and England were definitely stating that negotiations would not happen and that the war would continue. However, the situation began to change from 2023. Now, if you want, let me complete this question. Regarding the bombing of Kyiv, we can say this: Firstly, the bombings that Russia has carried out in different cities of Ukraine—during the time when the Russians surrounded Kyiv, you know, I was in Kyiv during the days when it was surrounded from three sides.

At that time, I was saying that, for example, the bombing of Baghdad by America is not comparable, nor is it comparable to World War I when we look at the Germans bombing London or British planes bombing various locations. This is because in those types of events, those who carry out the bombings, or even what Russia did in Chechnya, are not similar. In many places, or like in the Vietnam War, there isn't a carpet bombing situation. In the wars we are discussing, what happened was that the bombers sometimes specifically targeted civilians to create pressure on the government. However, there was no mass bombing here. But it is also true that in the first weeks of the war, Russian planes could easily fly over the skies of Kiev. They could strike their desired targets in Kiev more easily. They could not do this easily later on, and one of the important reasons for this was the arrival of Stinger missiles from America. After this incident, Russian planes could no longer easily fly over the skies of Kiev. Secondly, there is an official claim from the Russians.

Russians do not want to contradict this official claim too much. What is this official claim? Russians and Ukrainians are the same people; both are Slavic ethnicities. They say that Russians and Ukrainians are essentially the same nation, the same people. Given this assertion, there is also the national and religious significance of Kiev from the perspective of Russians. Russian nationalists claim that Kiev is our first capital in history. For us, it's like Ergenekon; similarly, for Russians, Kiev holds that kind of importance. Additionally, there is the religious significance of Kiev for Russians, as the largest monastery of Russian Orthodox Christians, the Pechersk Monastery, is located in Kiev. Naturally, because of this, Russians do not carry out actions in Kiev similar to what Americans did in Vietnam. However, there is another aspect to the matter. Now, let's not delve into conspiracy theories, but I always say that the real story of this war will probably be written in about 5 to 10 years after some archives and secret talks and negotiations come to light. Because Russians...

Currently, they are not fully engaging with all their power, and this has an important effect. Therefore, this war has a rather peculiar aspect to it. However, this strange dimension may become clearer in about 5 to 10 years. If I say a couple of sentences about life in Kyiv, I would mention that there is a war continuing just a few hundred kilometers away, but when you look at daily life in Kyiv, it doesn't feel like a place where a deadly war is ongoing. However, you realize there is a war when there is a curfew at midnight until 5 AM. At times, this curfew becomes more frequent, sometimes occurring 45 times a day. Sirens start to sound, and there is talk of bombing threats; that’s when you understand you are in the midst of a war. Also, about 10 days ago, as a result of the bombardment, the Russian attacks completely disrupted Ukraine's energy infrastructure. In Kyiv, there were daily electricity cuts lasting 12 hours. Thankfully, we are now experiencing a somewhat more normal situation.

We have entered a period where, until the end of October, there shouldn't be any problems. However, at the end of October, when the days start to shorten and the nights lengthen, there will be a greater need for electricity and energy. At that time, bigger problems will arise. Therefore, the war is still making its impact felt. I may be asking unnecessarily insistently, but I really find it hard to understand. I hope it doesn't turn out that way. The so-called most powerful air defense system in the world, the Iron Dome in Israel, has a smart strategy. The Russians are pursuing this strategy by using very cheap drones to wear down the air defense system, and then they can start a more serious aerial assault that could cause losses for Israel. I understand that Kiev could be put in a much more difficult position. From the beginning, I have been one of those who expressed this thesis. As a result, they are the same people, the same blood, perhaps with common ancestral roots. Therefore, they are more cautious. But ultimately, there is a government they are tactically targeting. I truly hope they don't put pressure on Kiev, but I find it hard to understand why they would want to.

I'm struggling in many ways. My comment is that, of course, you have more experience in these matters. I think the Russians gained experience from the Vietnam swamp. For that reason, they are expending all their strength and struggling more over time. They are conducting a tactical war. Initially, there was a belief that Russia's power would become paralyzed over time, and I shared that belief. However, we have seen that Russia's resilience is much greater. The question is how resilient the Western alliance can be in Ukraine. I think the Russians have noticed this. Therefore, it seems like they are observing the West's resilience. If a factor like Trump comes to power in America—I'm speaking from the perspective of Ukraine—maybe there could be peace there. Let me express my own opinions. Of course, there are aspects that I agree with. However, I want to point out that one of the important reasons why Russia is not fully committing its power to Ukraine is that Finland has now joined NATO. As a result, Russia needs to deploy troops to other borders and areas, which has an impact as well. Additionally, in 2014...

Russia had already seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. Some say that this war, and I somewhat agree, actually began in 2022 when the Russians took Crimea. The period between 2014 and 2022, when Russia seized Crimea, marked eight years of a more indirect war between Russia and Ukraine. However, all state relations, trade, and so on continued during that time. Starting from 2022, direct war began. 

In 2014, when the Russians took Crimea, they did so without spilling blood, not even pulling the trigger of a gun. The Ukrainian army at that time was in a rather weak state. Additionally, Ukrainian soldiers in Crimea were influenced by Russian propaganda. The Russians offered them a deal, saying, You will transfer to our army with the same rank. So, if you were a major in the Ukrainian army, you would transfer to the Russian army as a major as well, or...

In the Ukrainian army, Colonel Isan said, You will also come to our army as a Colonel. We have higher salaries, or if you do not accept this rule, then leave Crimea. In 2014, a large portion of the Ukrainian soldiers and intelligence officers stationed in Crimea switched sides and transferred to the opposing side. Now, of course, this could also involve betrayal, but we cannot explain everything with betrayal. For example, let's consider a Turkish-Greek war. The Turks and Greeks are different from each other in many ways; the majority of their religions are different, their languages are different, and their origins are different. In a Turkish-Greek war, both sides would naturally want to buy someone from the opposing side, but under no circumstances would such a purchase be considered betrayal. We do not see a situation where two-thirds of a military unit or a brigade transfers to the opposing side in either the Turkish or Greek contexts. Looking from the other side, this indicates that the Russians look down on Ukrainians. They say, We are bigger; we are your elder brothers. The Russians ignore the Ukrainian state and refuse to accept it, but despite everything, the Russians...

Ukrainians show that they did not see themselves as a foreign element back in 2014. This is because, for example, we cannot think of a Turkish-Greek war. In the War of Independence, our side surrounded the Greeks at Dumlupınar, and the Greek General Trikopis would call out, Hey General Trikopis, come this way, you will be a pasha in our army. And General Trikopis would respond, Okay, pasha, I'm coming, and he would cross over to our side. This is an event that you couldn't even imagine in real life. Therefore, we should not think of the conflict between the Russians and Ukrainians as a typical Turkish-Greek war or an Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, or a Turkish-Russian war. This situation is somewhat unique, and the similarities between these nations also play a role in this. 

Okay, Deniz, I want to ask this: let's put the war aside for a moment. E-commerce continues, both with Turkey and the world. When we look at Turkey, we have both exports and a grain corridor. Generally, there are some activities over land.

Our organizations are rapidly progressing. In this context, I know that this is not your area of expertise, but could you share your observations on how trade is being conducted with Turkey? Currently, all of this is continuing via road, passing through Bulgaria and Romania. In addition, we can say the following about transportation by sea: during the first six months of the war, ports here were completely blockaded. All ports in Ukraine were under blockade; some were under Russian occupation, like the port of Kherson, while others were blockaded. At the end of July and the beginning of August 2022, Turkey brought Russia and Ukraine together, and under the leadership of Turkey and the United Nations, they reached an agreement on the grain corridor. This allowed Ukrainian grain to be exported with the permission of the Russians. However, ships were subject to inspections to ensure that no weapons or other items were being transported. The Russians, along with Turkey and the United Nations, conducted inspections on the ships, and then the ships continued their journey. However, Russia...

In this agreement, it was claimed that the promises made to him were not fulfilled. He announced in July of last year, which was a little over a year ago, that he was withdrawing from this agreement, stating that he would not extend its duration. Consequently, he re-imposed a blockade on Ukrainian ports, and the Port of Odessa, Ukraine's largest port, is constantly exposed to Russian drone attacks and bombings. There are continuous explosions occurring at the Port of Odessa. In response, Ukraine is inflicting heavy damage on Russian warships with Ukrainian-made drones and unmanned surface vehicles. For instance, the Russian Black Sea Fleet was consistently stationed at the naval base in Sevastopol, Crimea. However, due to these Ukrainian attacks, the Russians were forced to withdraw their fleet significantly to the eastern edge of the Black Sea, to the area around Novorossiysk or even further. Meanwhile, we were discussing the damages that Russia has suffered in the Russia-Ukraine War, which we can also consider an important issue.

Ukraine is saying that there is no need for an agreement on a grain corridor with Russia right now because we are already carrying out trade in some way. Of course, the trade they are currently conducting is not equal to the volume they could reach if they were to make a new grain corridor agreement under Turkey's mediation. So, how is it happening right now? Ships are coming from Ukrainian ports, following the route to Romania and Bulgarian territorial waters, and then arriving in Turkish waters before reaching the straits. This significantly extends the journey. Secondly, there is no guarantee that these ports won't be attacked by the Russians, making this a much riskier route. Currently, we can say that trade is continuing through these two routes: primarily by land and occasionally, albeit riskily, by sea. Thank you, dear Deniz. It is undeniable that trade must continue even in wartime. Looking at the current situation, Ukraine is still trading much more than Turkey.

Ukraine is one of the leading countries in grain production and export. Yes, it is definitely still ongoing. The fertile lands of Ukraine and Ukrainian grain, despite everything, and despite all these wars, were constantly facing upheavals even before the war. Until recent years, Ukraine was one of the most unstable countries in Europe in terms of domestic politics. Despite all this political instability and the turmoil, and also the war it has faced in recent years, if Ukraine has managed to stay afloat in some way, it is largely due to its fertile lands and the fact that it is still able to export grain despite the war conditions. However, there are indeed problems arising, especially with the grain that Ukraine exports to Europe. With the war, the Western world had declared, We are completely behind Ukraine. However, the war has lasted much longer than many countries in the West expected. Additionally, it should be noted that Russia initially did not achieve its targets and has somewhat fallen back.

The intensity of the violence has decreased a bit, and the war has continued with low intensity. In other words, Russia has stretched the war over time after a certain point. This way, it waited for Western countries to exhaust their own power and become weary. For example, Ukrainian grain was being exported free of charge to European countries from the early months of the war. However, in many places in Europe, farmers began to revolt, asking how much longer this would continue, as they couldn't feed their own families. Therefore, a problem has started to emerge in this regard. Thank you very much, Türker. I have no other questions, of course, there are many questions, but the program is now coming to an end. Dear Deniz, let's definitely bring you on air from time to time, and I want to convey this important information to the viewers of Logi TV through your perspective and commentary. The floor is yours. Thank you, Deniz. I hope everything develops well for both the Ukrainian and Russian people, the ordinary citizens, and that you also find peace.

You can continue to live in Ukraine, wherever you wish. We would like to congratulate you once again on your books. Thank you very much. I also want to sincerely thank you for organizing such a program, and I send my regards and respect to the viewers of Loj TV. Dear Türker, dear Deniz, thank you very much. Our goal is to convey information, as we always say. I would like to create a vast archive because, in the end, many people will look back and ask what those before us have done. Of course, this is a collection for the future, but the most important point for our present is that we continue to provide information to thousands of people following the logistics sector and the supply chain here on Loj TV. You can also share your knowledge and announcements. Stay with love, stay with logistics, and of course, stay with Loj TV. See you soon.

Gazeteci Yazar Deniz Berktay Ukrayna'dan bildiriyor.

Loji TV

The War in Ukraine: Questions and Insights

The speaker expresses gratitude to LOG TV viewers and journalist Deniz Berkay for joining from Ukraine.

They raise questions about the ongoing war, specifically the perceived desire of England and America for it to continue, and the strange normalcy of life in Kyiv despite the conflict.

Deniz, who has been reporting from Ukraine since 2007, offers insights and recommends his book on Ukraine's political history for those interested in learning more.

The Multi-Dimensional Conflict of the Russia-Ukraine War

The Russia-Ukraine war involves a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty by Russia, while also serving as a conflict between Russia and the West, with Ukraine as a victim.

The West, particularly America and England, is trying to establish influence in the Black Sea and contain Russia.

The war has two dimensions: Ukraine's victimization and the West's involvement, and the conflict's course has led to greater losses for Ukraine and increased territory for Russia.

The continuation of the Ukraine war is seen as a strategy by the US and UK to weaken the Russian regime, similar to the Soviet Union's quagmire in Afghanistan.

Russia's initial plans to quickly capture Kyiv failed, leading to unexpected losses and a stronger Russian economy despite Western sanctions.

The war has highlighted that the world is not solely influenced by the West, as Russia's pre-invasion preparations and backup plans helped mitigate the impact of sanctions.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has faced constant Ukrainian strikes, leading to a withdrawal from the Crimean Peninsula and significant military losses.

The bombing of various facilities in Russia and the targeted strikes in Kyiv have altered the dynamics of the war, with the situation shifting in Russia's favor from 2023.

The historical and religious significance of Kyiv to Russians has influenced their military actions, leading to a more cautious approach in the city.

The Complex Impact of the Ongoing War in Ukraine

The war in Ukraine has a peculiar aspect, with daily life in Kyiv feeling normal despite the conflict nearby.

The war's impact is felt through frequent curfews, bombing threats, and disrupted energy infrastructure.

Russia's strategic use of cheap drones and NATO's expansion with Finland's membership are factors influencing the war's dynamics and Russia's troop deployment.

Russia's war with Ukraine is seen by some as starting in 2022 with the seizure of Crimea, which had been a period of indirect conflict since 2014.

The Russian takeover of Crimea in 2014 was bloodless, with many Ukrainian soldiers switching sides due to Russian propaganda and offers of higher salaries.

The unique similarities between Russians and Ukrainians complicate the conflict, making it different from typical territorial wars like those between Turkey and Greece.

Trade Conducted with Turkey Amid the Ukraine War

Trade with Turkey is currently happening via road through Bulgaria and Romania, while sea transportation has been disrupted by port blockades and Russian occupation.

Turkey played a key role in establishing a grain corridor agreement between Russia and Ukraine, but Russia's withdrawal from the agreement led to a re-imposition of the blockade on Ukrainian ports.

Despite the ongoing trade, Ukraine is currently trading more than Turkey, with ships following a longer and riskier route to reach Turkish waters.

Ukraine's Resilience in Grain Production Amidst War

Ukraine remains a leading country in grain production and export, despite ongoing political instability and war.

The country's fertile lands have been crucial for its survival, allowing it to export grain even during the conflict.

However, the war's prolongation has led to tensions in Europe, with local farmers struggling to cope with the impact of Ukraine's free grain exports.