Investor Sentiment on Apple's iPhone and Stock Performance

Investor sentiment toward Apple is pessimistic, with expectations of underperformance and cautious outlooks dominating discussions.

### Investor Sentiment on Apple: Caution Amidst Mixed Performance
* 📞 This morning, there's significant chatter regarding the perceived **overhype of the iPhone 6**, with speculation about the **nonexistent iPhone 17** adding to the noise.
* 📊 Analysts often conduct lead time analyses to gauge demand for new iPhone launches, but many believe this practice is ultimately **misleading**, as true demand won't be clear until the **following spring**.
* 📉 Current expectations for the iPhone 16 are low, with predictions that it will **underperform and contribute to the recent lagging of Apple's stock**.
* 📉 Investor sentiment is currently negative, with reports indicating **weaker demand compared to the previous year** and **potential production cuts by December**.
* 📈 Despite the cautious outlook, Apple's stock has surprisingly **risen 17% this year**, outperforming some major tech competitors like Google and Microsoft.
* 📉 Many investors are choosing to underweight Apple in their portfolios, favoring other stocks with better setups, yet the stock remains resilient, hovering just **4% below its all-time high**.
* 🔮 As we approach the earnings report in October, the market seems to have **already priced in potential disappointments**, suggesting that while Apple may continue to lag, a **significant drop in share price is unlikely** unless it nears the **$200 mark**.

There's a lot of noise this morning from the cell side, Jordan, about what is iPhone six over hype. The Jefferies not even mentioned 17, which is fictional at this point. It doesn't exist, at least as far as we know. When you sit down at your desk and you get the phone calls from clients, how do you react to all of that? Well, I mean, this is a rite of passage for Apple. And in the investment community every September, October, when they launch a new phone. Everyone loves to go out and do their checks. For how long does it take to get a phone once you place the order? And that's, you know, the lead time analysis to try to judge demand. I think it's kind of nonsense. I mean, yeah, people like to do those the press and media pick it up, but at the end of the day, you won't really know how well this cycle is till next

spring. And then by then, everyone's looking at the next version, right? So it's always kind of on to the next thing. And I think from the standpoint of where I'm focused is no one really expects the 16 to be some game-changing iPhone cycle. It's not going to outperform, I don't think, expectations of anything. It's expected to underperform. That's why the stock's been lagging. But most importantly, is kind of the 17, the next iPhone next fall. That would be the second iteration of, you know, their AI software, which hopefully is then going to drive more of a replacement cycle and get people excited generally. Could you summarize what investor attitudes are toward Apple realistically right now? They're not good. I think every day you get another sell-side report that is negative or cautious in terms of our checks suggest demand is weaker than it was a year ago. The phone isn't selling well. They're going to start cutting unit

production by December. And that permeates across the investment community. And most people are like, yeah, it's a major stock. I have to pay attention. I have to have some weighting in my portfolio relative to my benchmark. But most people just take a view that unless I think this product is going to surprise, I can underweight the stock and not worry about missing any alpha. And that's what they're doing. They're going into other names, particularly the Mag seven, that the setup looks better. So all I'm saying is that the sentiment couldn't be that much worse than it is now. Couldn't be that much worse, but it's actually only about 4% off of its record high in terms of the share price, still worth more than $3 trillion. Is this just going to be sideways trading that for Jordan? We sort of priced in some of that anxiety. Yeah, that's a great point.

And that's kind of what I was noting today, that, you know, who would have guessed? Apple's shares are up 17% this year. It's a little below the market, but it's better than a lot of other names, particularly in software. It's better than Google. It's actually better than Microsoft. So I think, again, that shows you positioning and sentiment is already down. And every time we get a new update or we get closer to the earnings report later in October, I think the surprise to the downside factor gets more and more priced in or expected. So again, yeah, it could be an underperformer and a laggard, but I don't think it's going to all of a sudden derail and trade down materially. I think there's a lot of people who might buy the stock if it ever got like closer to $200.

Why Is iPhone 16 Demand so Soft in China?

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Investor Sentiment on Apple's iPhone Launch

Investor attitudes toward Apple are currently negative, with many sell-side reports indicating weaker demand for the iPhone compared to last year.

The upcoming iPhone 16 is not expected to be a game-changer, leading to a lagging stock performance.

The focus is now on the iPhone 17, which is hoped to drive a replacement cycle and generate more excitement.

Investor sentiment towards a major stock is cautious, with many choosing to underweight it in their portfolios.

Despite the negative sentiment, the stock is only 4% off its record high and still valued at over $3 trillion.

This raises the question of whether the stock will continue to trade sideways as the market has already priced in the associated anxiety.

Apple's shares have risen 17% this year, outperforming other tech giants like Google and Microsoft.

The company's positioning and sentiment are already down, with the downside surprise factor being priced in as the earnings report approaches.

Despite the potential for underperformance, there is strong buying interest if the stock gets closer to $200.