Hello, this is Orlando Kim. Today, we will take a look at how to choose ten-bagger stocks and the methods I used to select them. We will also discuss strategies for managing funds. 

Now, let's talk about IQ. There has been a lot of talk and controversy surrounding it. The founder of the company has left, and there are discussions about whether the company is failing or if it has simply come to an end. There are also concerns about the lack of revenue, among other issues. A year ago, I disclosed the average price, and I still hold those shares. At that time, I entered when the price was around $4.40. I will explain why I continue to hold onto these shares, reflecting on my initial entry point and how I manage my funds. Let's watch that video, and I will continue to share my thoughts. This is Orlando Kim, and today we will also discuss Nvidia's quantum...

Let's take a look at an overview of computing technology, and I will specifically discuss how I should approach my portfolio by revealing my average cost. First, let me mention my average cost. I am using TradeStation, which I believe I mentioned last time. It is based in Florida, and many hedge funds are coming to Florida. Companies like Citadel are entering the market, and the reason is that there are no capital gains taxes or income taxes. Currently, you can see a live chart, and I have deleted the account number. I have a long position and entered at an average cost of around 3.40. At this point, the price has risen to about 7 dollars, and I am holding onto it without selling. I wanted to share this to illustrate my approach.

I will speak as Dream. I have mentioned that there is money management, there is madness, and then there is mind control. Among these, the most important is money management. If you cannot manage your funds, you will always be surrounded by fear and anxiety, which means that proper trading cannot take place, and mind control will be impossible. For example, let's say I have 10 billion won. If I invest more than 5 billion won, think of the funds as having entered an ion queue. If it rises to $7 and I sell it at $4, I would have to sell and leave immediately due to greed. Then, if it starts to drop, I wouldn't be able to sell. What if it becomes 1 billion or 2 billion? People’s emotions will rise initially.

우리의 현재 모습은 계속해서 자금을 가져가다가 결국 깡통을 차게 되는 상황입니다. 주식에서 가장 중요한 것은 내가 컨트롤할 수 있는 자금입니다. 자금을 빌려오는 경우도 있으며, 최근에도 CFT 사건이 있었습니다. 일단 레버리지에 대해 말씀드리자면, 옵션의 경우 현재 미국 회사들이 최대 50배의 레버리지를 제공하기도 합니다. 하지만 50배의 레버리지를 사용해서 성공할 확률은 0.001%에 불과합니다. 작은 관리가 이루어지지 않기 때문에, 우리는 일반적으로 좋은 주식도 제대로 소유하지 못하고, 가격이 조금만 내려가면 손절해야 할 상황에도 불구하고 계속 보유하다가 결국 깡통을 차버리게 됩니다. 이후의 근본적인 문제를 살펴보면, 자금 관리가 매우 중요하다는 것입니다. 주식을 많이 해보신 분들은 자금 관리가 되지 않으면 어떤 결과가 초래되는지 잘 아실 겁니다.

Not everything is possible. Therefore, what I emphasize in the first, second, and third points is that too much capital should not be invested, and one should never use excessive leverage on a single asset. This is what I want to convey. The moment you use leverage, if you have made a 10% profit, you should only risk about 5% of that profit with funds you can afford to lose. That is leverage. Now, regarding the current situation, if more than 50% is invested, you will inevitably end up just watching the stock price. If you are only focused on the stock price, you will get excited when it goes up a little, anxious when it goes down, and you will only think about selling when it drops. This is human psychology. Therefore, proper capital management must be prioritized. This is the most important aspect of investing in stocks.

This is an important key point. Let me explain. When I invested in Ion, I realized that I don't have a precise understanding of quantum computers. I know the basics, of course; it's about the states between 0 and 1. Right now, through superposition, many quantum states are derived, and there are interference phenomena called rotation. That's about the extent of my knowledge. Another crucial aspect is cash flow; understanding where the funds are moving is essential.

Looking at the current situation in our country, before I left, there were three main departments: the Ministry of Information and Communication, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, and the Small and Medium Business Administration. There are funds coming from these departments. If we look at those funds, we can see where they are currently expected to invest, which industries or sectors are on their list. Then...

When money comes from government agencies, it inevitably leads to the development of that industry. If we look at this context, we can see that the U.S. government's budget for fiscal year 2024 has been outlined. They have stated that for the sake of U.S. competitiveness, they are requesting a record amount of $210 billion for research and development in the fields of science and technological innovation. We need to examine where this significant amount of money is going. The areas to focus on include advanced manufacturing, advanced wireless technology, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, biotechnology, and quantum computing. These are the five or six sectors that are receiving funding. Therefore, the sectors we should invest in include artificial intelligence, semiconductors, biotechnology, and quantum computing. This is because when the government allocates funds, it naturally leads to investment in those areas.

Stocks will go up, right? So, if you think about it like that, you could say that the money has been invested. Next, if you look at stocks in the early stages of quantum finance, if you invest for one or two years, there’s no answer. At the very least, you need to look at these stocks for at least three years to see any results. We are buying low and selling high, buying at $8 and selling at $10, and if we invest like that, we cannot expect a tenfold return. Then, if we consider the time value and hold on for a longer period, there’s venture capital involved. Right now, we are entering Series A, moving on to Series B, and then Series C, continuously holding for at least five years. Only then can we see a tenfold return or similar results after holding for over three years. Investing for one or two months or even three months does not yield significant returns.

당연히 안 나죠. 자, 이런 식으로 투자를 하시면 안 됩니다. 그런 가운데 있기 때문에 이런 종목에 일단 우리는 투자를 해야 한다고 말씀드릴 수 있겠고, 거기서 한번 보시게 되면 특별히 2024년도 예산에 대부분이 정액이 됐는데, 그 중에서 국방 분야, 그리고 현재 과학 분야와 에너지 분야에 돈들이 계속해서 쏠리고 있었다는 겁니다. 그래서 일반적으로 지금 아이온에서 돈이 나오는 분야는, 디파트먼트 오브 에너지(DOE)입니다. 여기서 돈이 나오는 것은 약 8.7% 정도이고, 그다음에 항공 우주국에서 7.1% 정도, 그리고 국방부에서 3.2% 정도입니다. 이렇게 세 가지 분야에서 돈이 나오게 돼 있습니다. 그렇기 때문에 항상 투자를 하실 때는 현재 돈들이 어디로 예상되고 있는지, 어디에 책정이 많이 되어 있는지를 고려해야 합니다.

When considering investments, it's important to evaluate these aspects. Initially, when new technologies develop, government funding starts first, followed by private sector involvement. Therefore, it's crucial to understand what government funding is prioritizing. This is also true for artificial intelligence; everything forms in this manner. For example, at the DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) and the Department of Defense, we can see that the discoveries we rely on today, like microwave technology, were initially developed there. Once they have made their advancements, the focus shifts to other areas. Thus, in the realm of new technologies, government funding is the most critical at the outset. Research institutions like the Air Force Research Laboratory and the Navy Research Laboratory first establish their findings, and once revenue starts to be generated from those findings, the focus can then transition to the next stage.

This is the private sector, and you can see it this way. If you look at the site for the Department of Energy, it has announced that it will invest approximately $65 million in quantum computing research. It is stated that this funding will be directed towards three areas: software, control systems, and algorithms. This is the general allocation of funds. It is also mentioned that $65 million will be allocated to 38 separate quantum computing projects. Quantum computing has the potential to solve currently unsolvable problems and ultimately revolutionize many fields. It particularly emphasizes the programming and control of quantum systems.

We are aiming for software tools for the liver. In this context, everyone is currently paying attention to AI. Once AI develops to a certain extent and is implemented, people will naturally be curious about what the technology is. This is expected to be a significant development. It is predicted that this will accelerate innovation in fields such as life sciences, logistics, AI, and energy. This is why we are currently making investments. Moreover, I would like to emphasize that such investments should be approached with a long-term perspective, similar to venture capital. 

Looking at the revenue side, there is Arlis, which has signed a contract for quantum networking to design the first network system for quantum computers. Additionally, there is Amazon, specifically AWS.

They announced an extension of a contract worth millions of dollars. Additionally, they are signing a contract worth $9 million to provide access to quantum computing at the University of Maryland. This indicates that the contract is indeed being executed, suggesting that the company is experiencing growth. Next, we have information from the blog of Thinking Alpha. It mentions that, at this stage, investing in IonQ stocks is considered a very risky bet. This seems to be a realistic assessment. We should consider what thoughts this person has and what mindset we should adopt for our investments. I am skeptical about the high valuation of IonQ, given its early-stage technology, while acknowledging the impressive technological advancements that have been made.

However, the consumption of cash far exceeds the revenue-generating capacity. That is correct. Despite ambitious plans, there are concerns that reservations are stagnant, which will limit short-term growth. This is a valid point. Since there is a slight stagnation, it raises the question of whether such growth will occur. However, if reservations increase, this concern would likely dissipate. 

Next, I believe that expectations for the AI sector are too high, making it difficult for stock prices to generate meaningful profits. This is also a valid point. If we think we need to quickly achieve a 30% growth rate, it might lead to some difficulties. This is a realistic observation.

Furthermore, it is true that AI companies are burning through cash at an alarming rate. That is correct. Additionally, they are debt-free companies.

There is no debt, and more than 20% of the market capitalization is composed of cash. This provides a certain level of stability. That is correct. However, the most important aspect right now is that the business is not expanding; there is no potential for expansion. For this reason, these things are being priced as if they are undoubtedly successful, which is also true. But saying that the business cannot expand is somewhat incorrect. You can see it this way. Currently, they are continuously striving for sales growth. So, if we look further, AQ is working to improve the fidelity of qubits, the basic unit of quantum information, in order to inherit the accuracy and performance of quantum systems. This is a correct statement. By achieving high fidelity in the right fit, they aim to reduce errors and take one step closer to a commercially viable quantum computing field.

It is true that significant progress has been made in the commercial sector. Sales have exceeded expectations, and notable contracts have been signed in some areas of U.S. security. This is indeed correct. IonQ's new error correction technology is leading to improvements in qubit fidelity, and there is optimism that more milestones can be achieved by 2025. This is also accurate. As a result, there is confidence in short-term revenue growth, especially due to the increased demand for government projects and cloud partnerships, which signals a significant transition towards more commercial applications. This is true as well. However, what I want to convey is that quantum computer technology is still in its early stages. This is correct. The entire industry has not yet reached profitability.

This is indeed a valid point; it is the most important story. As a result, along with the expansion of the business, the high costs, including related expenses, continue to put a financial burden on IQ. Currently, CSL is experiencing a significant increase in such costs. Capital expenditures are rising considerably. Consequently, while we have raised the revenue guidance for 2024, we are still unable to generate sustained profits. Therefore, the development of high-quality products remains a long-term goal. This is true, and because of this situation, the speed at which these issues are resolved will determine the direction of the stock price. I can say that. 

Next, what people are saying is that the growth in sales appears to be impressive. They indicate that if annual revenue grows to less than $200 million, any slight change in quarterly sales could significantly impact the company.

There is a significant difference between growth rates and stories. When the figure is below $200 million, even small changes seem to lead to considerable increases. So, there is indeed a rate of change. Therefore, we should pay even more attention when it is still growing below $100 million. This year, it seems likely to achieve around $50 million. Particularly, in making the growth business more complex, future revenue growth is directly linked to the narrative. During the second quarter, it has been maintained at around $95 million. As a result, it does not significantly harm the current bullish market, but there are questions about how confidently we can estimate the growth rate after 2025. In other words, it is crucial to determine how much the booked revenue will increase. Ultimately, this is the key factor in the current situation regarding value assessment.

It is already being traded at a very high level. In conclusion, with a revenue of 200 million dollars, this revenue is not significantly important at this time. What is crucial is how much the booking revenue itself is. Currently, it is believed that it will not be significantly large. This is the general thought. 

Next, regarding stock evaluation, it is stated that the expected revenue is about 34 times. Specifically, in the case of IonQ, there is no debt, and the balance sheet is composed of cash and liquidity, holding more than 360 million dollars. This indicates a strong position. Over 360 million dollars, with more than 20% of the market capitalization consisting of net cash, signifies that they are in a robust position. Despite all this, for the year 2024...

In the second quarter, for Accu to generate about $8 million in revenue, it would require an investment of $34 million. This means that the cost of sales is significantly high. There are expenses for R&D and now marketing costs, which are considerable. Therefore, to generate $1 in revenue, it takes $4 in expenses. Given this situation, the continuous need for such high costs to increase revenue leads to ongoing losses. This has been pointed out by analysts. As a result, it seems difficult for the stock price to rise significantly. Furthermore, looking at the price-to-sales ratio, it is currently at 36 times, indicating that it is still somewhat overvalued. Even though it is overvalued compared to revenue, in the context of growth stocks, a 36 times ratio is not excessively high.

The price is not the issue. Let me explain. Here, I want to highlight something important. The stock price of IonQ was over 50 times at the beginning of this year, while currently, the revenue is trading at around 36 times. When expectations are already high like this, it becomes really difficult to generate profits. Therefore, the easiest way to make money is to invest when investors' expectations are still relatively low. In other words, when there is a lot of uncertainty and most people are giving up, that's the moment to enter the market and hold on for the long term to see profits. Thus, I can say that you must always catch growth stocks at their lowest point to find success. To conclude, this person is skeptical about a 34 times forward price-to-sales ratio, indicating a significant gap in profitability reflects enormous expectations for the company.

Now, the evaluation itself is like that. So, despite technological advancements and interesting government contracts, IQ is depleting cash at an alarming rate. In other words, they are spending four dollars to generate one dollar in revenue. In the early days of the company, this was unavoidable. Furthermore, the potential of quantum computers is enormous; however, due to the uncertainty regarding IQ's stagnating booking rates and expansion direction, concerns are growing about when they might generate meaningful profits. This is also true. Therefore, it seems that IQ is placing too much trust in quantum theory without seeing tangible results in this valuation. I don't think that's the case. Right now, they are developing a factory in Seattle, and two founders have left. The reasons for their departure seem to stem from the fact that early scientists are now focused on practical matters.

Engineers are coming in and investing, so it seems that growth will continue. Of course, there are things that the person mentioned that are incorrect, but there are many correct points as well. However, if we look at the reality, there are many discussions around this. In such a situation, growth stocks always start off like this and eventually bloom later on. Therefore, we cannot predict how fast it will grow. So, you should invest a small amount of money and then hold onto it for a long time while continuously checking if the company is doing well. This is how you invest in growth stocks; it’s not about buying at a low price and selling at a high price, and then buying again if it drops. It would be great if it worked that way, but that’s not how it usually goes. I also bought at a low price, but if I had sold at that price, could I buy it back at the same low price again?

It is difficult to do this. Therefore, it is advisable to invest in growth stocks by buying at low points and holding them for the long term while always assessing how well the company is doing. Thank you for watching the video until the end. If you found it helpful, please subscribe and like. Thank you.

아이온큐(ionq) 텐베거 주식을 투자하는 방법을 알아보자

 # 미국 현지투자자가 30년 투자 기간동안 수없이 많은 시행착오를 통해 얻은 실전투자 매매 노하우를 솔직하게 공유하겠습니다

(유튜버 소개)
    MBA(skku), 자문사 운용역, 창투사 심사역,주식 및 외환,선물 투자 경력 30 년 차.

(유의 사항)
    본 영상은 투자권유 영상이 아닙니다.단지 참고 사항일 뿐입니다.투자의 최종 판단과 결정은 
    투자자 분께 있습니다.모든 분들의 성공 투자를 간절히 기원합니다.

(연락처 공개)
    khcapitalmg@gmail.com

