hi everyone so on this video I'm going to help you understand how the budget might impact the stock market. What are some good bad stocks to purchase? Many of you might be thinking, you know what boss I'll buy defense stocks or I'll buy Railway stocks and I'm going to get like multimillionaire or whatever. Please do not do it. Please understand data facts. So I'm going to present all the data facts in a pointwise manner. I'll also reveal some of the stocks that I am bullish about, but this is not a stock recommendation video. Please do your own analysis. Financial Independence be built through stocks, but in 2024, there is another way to do that, which is to build AI products. There are a lot of people who despite having no Tech background are building AI products and making money with it too. If this sounds interesting, here's your chance to learn how to do it in build school. They teach how to build and launch AI related products. They are offering a master class. Usually this master class is paid.

but by using the links in the description and comment box, the first 1,000 users can attend this master class absolutely free of cost. So whether you are from a tech background, HR background, Finance, marketing, design, or sales professional, this master class will be highly relevant for you. You will learn tools and techniques to come up with AI-related ideas, how to use the no-code stack in order to build products, and finally how to acquire your first 100 customers. 300,000 people have already attended and benefited from this master class. So in case you are interested, you can definitely check out the links in the description and comment box. So back to the video, and the first key point that I will help you understand is the metadata of the budget. For example, this is the table. Please look at this: actuals, budgeted, revised budget. What was budgeted, for example, in 2023? $593,538 was budgeted as spent on defense, but the actual expenditure came out to be a little short, $5739, right? So on and so forth, right?

this is point one point two that you need to know. From this data, is that see 2024 budget has already been presented. In a way that was the interim budget now it will be because there. The ruling party has come back to Power now they will present the actual budget right. So they have already indicated where they are going to spend money right. So for example they have already said defense we are going to go and spend. So how do you analyze this data it's very simple. For example see the first key thing that you should notice is that. How much has it changed from 2023 to 2024 already. What has been budgeted so for example we went from 593 to 621 8% increase. So this is already a positive development. Second key point that this was an election year right. The BJP government came back into power and all good good things no doubt about that but the fact is that see that nationalism thing has played out now there is no reason for the government to keep on pushing these themes like

Defense Railways so this is a point that you need to be careful. This is not a buy or not buy recommendation. I'm simply telling you facts. Third key point and the more important point is the market is already factoring in the fact that in this new budget government is going to spend money on defense. Now in case that does not happen, they are going to fall. My estimate is that these stocks are going to fall. So I'm not touching them. This is the type of analysis that you need to do on other sectors. I will give you my take also on different themes that I'm bullish about but I'm not really bullish on defense theme. Now why am I saying that. So before I speak specifically about the defense theme let me share like very key important point and a common sensical Point here. Now budget is brought in order to achieve some goal that the government has and one of the key goals is right now in India Hal is being made for two things number one lack of jobs and the number two Hal point is

inflation, which is around 14-15% premium, so you know 5-6% is the only growth. No, that is not the case. Uh, the inflation growth has been fairly high, so these are two pain points. Now, this was a pain point last year also, but in these last 8-10 months, what has changed? Well, election results. Even government understands this is not working for us, so maybe we should start focusing on jobs, inflation, such. So maybe they will focus on that. Good thing is that government is actually looking at it, and this can be understood by looking at this point. This is always good, and I always appreciated the BJP government for doing this, that they are focusing on capital expenditure. The growth rate of capital expenditure, which is the good type of expenditure, is picking up. This is a good point, right? So whenever any government is doing good work, we have to appreciate. So I'm appreciating it. I teach economics, I teach finance, I analyze the data, I present it.

in front of you right. I have no interest in becoming like Mont and all that stuff, so it's not as if that I'm during any political party. Now back to the video, see this is happening right, so this is good point, maybe this will now start translating into sensible results if the budgetary allocations make sense. Okay, now what do I mean by that, let me help you understand that point more, and please this is what allows you to make money, that is not the point right, you have to understand the fundamentals so that you can realign your portfolio. In case you guys are interested, I also run a stock market course, a live batch is coming up, I will teach everything from scratch, so if you are a complete beginner, also this course will be very helpful. We study for full four days right, over two weekends, so then you put on the wisdom Community where you end up learning and practicing whatever I've taught you for over a year, so that is how you will become a better investor. There is no such course that is

currently being run by anyone fundamental knowledge. I'm doing it people have really appreciated it so in case you guys are interested do check it out so okay plug lug. Now let me talk about specific sectors in India. There are two types of things right one is that you can create physical infrastructure and second you can create digital infrastructure. Both of the infrastructures are important but one could clearly see right that the focus in the last one one and a half two years was on physical infrastructure and all that stuff. Now the capital expenditure can happen here also. The capital expenditure can happen here also. Now here when the capital expenditure happens we were not focusing on quality of infrastructure for example but do it really translate into any sort of sensible results. The short answer is no right so I feel that the government is going to do the right thing now right. It will move away from this entire physical narrative. It will start focusing more on digital narrative which brings us to very quick stocks that I am two stocks that I'm bullish about. I'll explain in that also. One is

Geo Finance. I already have it. I might increase my positions. Second is TCS. I discussed this in the community also roughly 20-25 odd days back on TCS stock also. Why? Because I feel that the digital infrastructure is where a lot of capital expenditure will lead to quality growth, right? So this is a very important point. Quality. Everyone understands all that indigenous theme and all that stuff, right? It's not as if the government is forever going to play this theme only. They are going to keep on playing the infrastructure physical theme only right now. This theme has been somewhat neglected, according to me. So a lot of support will be lent here. That is my estimate. So let me delve deeper into specific sections because I can already hear clicking noises and all that stuff. Okay, so see guys, basically number one point is I will show you the entire thing, right? So the first key point is that India's defense sector has opportunities for USD 138 billion over the next 10 years. Very good news and this is the type of news

that actually has already propelled the defense stocks or bunch of different different stocks have grown up by like four four five five times. Okay, so this theme has already run. This is point one. Point two, you can see from this graph that India's defense budget in the last 10 years has actually spiked quite a lot. Okay, you know this graph will be like this, right? No, it's not as if that in India we only need defense budget. Only we need other things also. Okay, so please remember this. We are probably peing when it comes to defense spending as per my understanding or defense growth rate. Right now, do you guys know that who is the biggest arms importer in the world? Well, it's India. Why? Because we have to extend favors to countries like Russia, countries like USA. Why? Because India has strategic importance and US also has a strategic importance. Russia also has a strategic importance. If India wants to maintain its relationships, it needs to give business to these countries also. And as a result, so please don't miss that point. This is very very

important indigenous this that stuff which is great no doubt about that, but please do not forget that indigenous manufacturing of Defense product. Why will Russia support us? Why will US support us? All that stuff, so please remember that this is a critical point. I feel that defense theme has played out. I am not putting any money on this theme now. In case this pinches you and you disagree with me, then what I would recommend you is that take a look at these stocks, right and order book. For example, H order some stocks which is doing some kind of very specific Niche work that can't be outsourced to us or Russia. For example in say and you guys tell me in the comment box that Ina if you feel that for example India is working on defense security. Now defense all that now that is a critical challenge. For example defense security defense security is what right that for example there is certain critical piece of information that we cannot give to us and Russia and all all those countries so is may say which of the companies do

you think will end up doing that type of work, so that is a sub-segment of defense that might grow. H cannot keep on growing, that is tough according to my analysis, uh, so I'm just giving you a high-level viewpoint. So far, I've not been able to figure out any specific niche themes. I'm not an expert when it comes to defense. In case some of you are, let me know. I will analyze these companies more, but the idea is to specifically figure out a very niche theme within the defense segment, which is required to be indigenized. So that's a sub-segment that might play out, okay? So this is what I would look for if I were to do defense investing. Now, let's talk quickly about railway stocks. Now, see guys, basically these types of headlines will come that hey, Indian railways to manufacture 10,000 AC coaches. Now the problem is that here is the universe of Railway stocks now, right? For example, will you buy bearings, right? Or will you buy forging companies? Or will you buy Railway cables?

wires everything will be there cables wires will be there bearings will be there forging will be done so many different different things will be done so it's impossible to analyze this entire group of stocks sensibly right. It's complicated. It's puning. It's gambling. What I would recommend is that STS right and just create like a basket of those 10-15 stocks and right so that is the simple point that you can do. Am I doing it? No, okay. I'm not very bullish on a railway like physical themes right now so I not putting in but if that is if you still feel that Railway is going to grow because announc then good luck please you can do that but my advice to you would be that hey pick like 10-15 stocks within this category and and mostly try to pick the stocks that have already not gone 45xx okay so I hope that this is sensible a better theme according to me would be something like Airlines okay now Airlines why because Airlines may be right that for example this is the total

outlay or the budgetary allocation of Airlines. The India's middle-class segment is growing now, mostly these days. I mean many of us are preferring to travel by Airways compared to Railways. AC1 AC then the train ticket is almost equivalent to an Airlines ticket. So what I'm trying to tell you is that from a cost perspective, it's not as if there's now a massive gap between Airlines and Railways. Okay, if you are in the Middle-upper middle-class segment, then the chances are that you'll be using more and more Airways. So this might increase. I had done a video on SpiceJet a few days back. I was just giving an analysis, not an issue. Point I'm trying to make is that companies like Indigo and some of the end Airlines, whichever you see value in depending on how you want to aggregate it in your portfolio, you could consider picking these types of companies. It might make more sense. Now let me start speaking about specific themes that I'm bullish on and why, and I will introduce some stocks to you also.

explain you the reason why but so far I hope that you were able to understand and appreciate the point overvalue defense themes raway themes you should pretty much avoid it sensibly carefully that is the precise input that I will have so the First theme that I'm bullish about is agricultural theme now there was a statement that was issued by Nas Chief investment in ag R&D then 13 can be fetched now the Agri R&D is mostly done by the government or is supported by the government right so because for example specials now it might make sense to pick like slightly broader type of businesses here I'm personally picking up something called as Pi Industries I feel the stock is good I had already built positions on it I'll do a very quick analysis right why Pi industry seems like an okay Bet as of now the stock has Consolidated it hasn't run up like crazy in the last 2 3 years so consolidate stock right that's one second key thing it's available at a

sensible P numbers grow. There is no problem in terms of numbers, so therefore I feel that this is a good stock from a mid to long-term viewpoint. So this is the first key theme that I will be bullish on. Now, if you do not agree with Pi Industries, you can go and check out these stocks and analysis, and whichever stocks you like, you can go and pick. Second is IT stocks. I feel that they are going through a turnaround. In fact, when TCS P not only I gave member community commentary, I also made an open video few maybe around a month back. Have not removed this. I had estimated that the stock will go something like this, but so this was like faster gain. Now, again, this is a beautiful technical pattern. Let me show it to you. So right, this is reverse Head and Shoulder. Now, this is more like a cup with handle pattern and techn tget this will come out to be roughly 6,000 rupes ASP, right. So there is good gains to be made and as India starts focusing more on digital.

infra right contracts ISS and TCS seems like the top bidder. TCS infosis worst is over. It looks like interest rate cut us Advantage mea for these companies, so this is set to Rally. So I will try to max out my positions on TCS over the next one month and a half two months, right? So this seems like a good bit as of now. Second stock is Gio fin, right? Gio problem, right, but it is a stable stock in the sense that it is likely to survive the next 5-10 years. So if you're holding it from a long-term perspective as India's digital requirements keep on growing, it's going to do well and profit-making. That they recently hiked the goo plans, right, and were able to Mint like very good money. So game, right, and they will become more and more profitable. So it makes sense to have a little bit of Stak there, right, and not cut it and don't be bother too much about it B Gio finance stock. Check if you're investing it from a long-term Viewpoint, it makes

sense. If you are looking to make short-term profit on it, then no one can guess. It's a very volatile stock. Finally, I will talk about green energy. I think this is a theme that might still continue to do well. A lot of work has already happened. I have a stock called as SW Solar that is already doing well. I will build more positions on it. Why? Because India is going to reduce its dependence on conventional sources of energy. But all that stuff, you have to be picky, right? At what point certain theme is playing out. For example, right now, EPC theme is likely to play out. EPC - engineering procurement construction. So, because a lot of infrastructure needs to be built and well-connected small Gap company, they are likely to do well. So, I will revisit this stock tomorrow on the member community. So, in case you guys are interested, you can definitely check it out. I hope that you enjoyed this video. I'll make a part two soon, but I hope that this gave you an introductory understanding of how to analyze the budget, how to analyze.

different themes. If you did, do press the like button and subscribe, and I'll see you soon.

Impact of Budget on these 8 stocks | Akshat Shrivastava

Impact of Budget on these 8 stocks | Akshat Shrivastava