South Korea's Real Estate Market: Trends and Future Predictions

Homebuyers are increasingly taking on debt, but this trend may not sustain demand for rising housing prices.

### Warning Signs in Seoul's Housing Market: A Comparison with 2009 Market Trends
* 📈  Despite Seoul's housing prices reaching **95% of previous peaks**, there are concerns about the **sustainability of the current market growth**.
* 🏠  The recent surge in housing prices is largely driven by **real demand**, with more people taking out loans to buy homes due to **eased regulations** and **low mortgage rates**.
* 🔍  However, historical patterns show that markets driven by real demand tend to be **short-lived**, as seen in the 2009 housing market.
* 💼  In 2009, a similar market pattern emerged with **increased transactions and rising prices**, driven by **actual demand**.
* 📉  However, after the initial surge, prices eventually dropped, with **expensive apartments in Gangnam being particularly affected**.
* 🏢  The current market is also showing signs of **overheating**, with high subscription demand and increasing jeonse prices, but this may not be **sustainable**.
* 🏦  The market's reliance on loans and real demand has limitations, as regulations can't be **continuously relaxed** to maintain growth.
* 🏗️  The inventory is not decreasing significantly, and there are concerns about a **potential market correction** in the near future.

### Real Estate Market Analysis and Predictions for the Second Half of 2021
* 🏠  The Governor of the Bank of Korea has commented on the "**unusual**" and "**significant**" rise in housing prices, indicating that **further easing of regulations is unlikely**.
* 📉  The expert predicts that real estate prices may not fluctuate significantly from August to December, with a **potential decrease in transaction volume** in the third quarter.
* 💰  The expert advises potential buyers to **wait for a possible price drop before purchasing**, especially for those in the **metropolitan area**.
* 🏢  The expert emphasizes the importance of understanding the factors that truly determine housing prices, such as **supply and demand dynamics**.
* 🏢  The expert suggests that the current high housing prices are not sustainable, as they have **outpaced income growth**.
* 🏢  The expert recommends a cautious approach to new loan offerings with low interest rates, as they may not be beneficial if **house prices ultimately decrease**.
* 🏠  The expert predicts that the housing market may see **increased volatility** if the selection of leading districts in the Ildong New Town does not meet **market expectations**.
* 📊  The expert's analysis is based on a **bottom-up perspective**, focusing on **market trends and historical data** rather than **top-down economic theories**.

집값 금융위기 때처럼 위험하다, 한국 부동산에 나타난 위험 신호 (이광수 대표 풀버전)

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Homebuyers in Seoul are taking on debt to purchase homes, but this situation may not be sustainable.

The demand for housing has increased, driving up prices and transaction volumes, with some areas surpassing previous highs.

However, the market driven by real demand may be short-lived, as there are limits to loan increases and real demand cannot continuously push prices higher.

Actual buyers are now taking out loans to buy houses due to a drop in housing prices and the government's easing of regulations.

This deregulation has created psychological pressure on both non-homeowners and multi-homeowners, driving them to take action.

The recent drop in mortgage rates has also contributed to the urgency, but the sustainability of this trend is in question due to the limited effective demand in the real estate market.

The Uncertain Future of the Housing Market

The current housing market situation is reminiscent of 2009, with the potential for a temporary rebound, but historical patterns may not repeat themselves.

Investment demand is crucial for driving market changes, but government regulations and uncertainties make it challenging for investors to enter.

The relationship between rising rental prices and investment demand is complex, and the recent increase in jeonse deposits has been largely driven by loans, complicating the issue further.

The Fluctuating Apartment Market in Gangnam

Apartment prices in Gangnam have been dropping, with the most expensive units experiencing the largest fluctuations.

While asking prices are rising, the overall inventory of listings has not decreased significantly, as new listings are being added.

The surge in loan applications and increasing interest rates may indicate a potential slowdown in the housing market, while government regulations and measures are expected to have a limited impact on easing the current situation.

The Impact of Government Policies on the Housing Market

Government policies can create market uncertainty and risks, as seen in the past with lending restrictions and the recent consideration of speculative zones.

interest rate changes and the Korean market could influence real estate trends.

The significant rise in asset values and housing prices, coupled with stagnant incomes, has led to increased volatility and uncertainty in the Korean real estate market.

The housing purchase burden for middle-income earners is severe, with only 6 out of 100 houses being affordable through loans.

House prices are not expected to fluctuate significantly from August to December, but a decline in transaction volume is predicted, which could lead to price drops.

First-time homebuyers are currently active in the market, but the overall demand for housing is not driving up prices, and the number of unsold homes is increasing.

The Impact of Falling Property Prices and Investment Strategies

Falling property prices are attracting investors to the market, particularly in provincial areas.

Sejong is highlighted as a promising region, despite its current struggles with price drops.

The speaker advocates for a gradual approach to real estate investment, emphasizing the importance of switching properties and benefiting from tax exemptions.

The Dynamics of South Korea's Real Estate Market

South Korea's real estate prices should be viewed from a bottom-up perspective, as the supply that truly affects house prices comes from existing property listings, not just new constructions.

There is a divergence of opinions among experts regarding the future supply of apartments in Seoul, leading to debates about its impact on housing prices.

The trading volume in the real estate market is expected to decrease in the second half of the year, which could lead to a sharp drop in housing prices if the decline is significant.