Real Estate Market Trends in South Korean Metropolitan Cities

Metropolitan cities like Busan, Daegu, and Ulsan show varied real estate recovery rates, influenced by unique regional characteristics.

### South Korea's Real Estate Market: Metropolitan Cities' Prospects and Factors Affecting Housing Prices
* 🏙 According to the speaker, the real estate market in major metropolitan cities like Busan, Changwon, Daegu, Daejeon, and Ulsan is currently relatively slow, with **Ulsan being the fastest** and **Daegu and Busan lagging behind**.
* 🏢 Small cities like Gangneung, Chuncheon, and Wonju in Gangwon Province are showing a **faster recovery in housing prices**.
* 🏠 Ulsan is expected to **improve soon**, but its lease market moves more slowly due to **low demand**.
* 📊 In metropolitan areas, it is important to consider the **long-term supply and cumulative supply**, as well as the **rental supply and vacancy rate**.
* 🔄 The speaker mentioned that while it is difficult to predict the decline of housing prices in metropolitan areas, once prices start rising, the **momentum tends to continue**.
* 📈 The speaker emphasized that the growth of housing prices comes from the ability of housing to **generate rent**, and the region's characteristics and **demand and supply** play a significant role in this.
* 🔒 The speaker hinted at a "**secret of rising house prices**" that he analyzed, which is expected to be revealed in a book in a few years.
* 💰 With the era of low interest rates coming to an end, the market is expected to return to the fundamental principles of **demand and supply**.

You showed an example using Jeonju in Mungyeong-ha. Now, the investment areas we are interested in are major metropolitan cities, right? Such as Busan, Changwon, Daegu, Daejeon, Ulsan, these kinds of places. How do you see the overall atmosphere in those areas? If we look at it from the perspective of major cities, the metropolitan cities are a bit slower right now. For example, Busan and Daegu are the slowest, followed by Busan and Ulsan being the fastest. Daejeon has already risen a bit, so there is quite a bit of supply now. We need to watch Daejeon a bit more. But I think there will be a rise together. As for the other regions, there may be some time differences, but they will all rise next year. You should see it that way. The difference lies in whether it rises in the first half of the year or the second half of the year. That's the only difference. In fact, people who talk about local areas are rarely on broadcasts. Nowadays, they don't really know much about the local areas.

Most people almost talk about the provinces, saying they are not interested in the provinces and talking as if the provinces are all dying. But yesterday, I showed you various things. The recovery rate of high-priced high points with carts. The provinces showed a higher rate. Shall I show you once? If you look, the top rankings from 1st to 8th are all provinces. It's interesting, right? We quietly rose like this. We used to look at Gangnam, but now the provinces are falling less. There are also cases like that. Recovery was a bit faster in small cities. Now, even in small cities like Gangwon Province, there is a trend of recovery, like Gangneung, Chuncheon, and Wonju. Small cities like these are showing a faster rise. The same goes for the provinces. Most small cities in Gyeongsangbuk-do are all rising, except for Daegu and Gyeongsan. Recovery is fast for those areas, so I think that's why the statistics came out like that. How about Gwangju and Ulsan? Gwangju will soon improve. There is too little supply in Gwangju. Ulsan will improve soon.

Ulsan is the fastest, and there are no vacancies left. Ulsan will start at the end of this year or at the beginning of next year at the latest. Large companies will make a lot of money, right? But Ulsan has its own characteristics. Ulsan has a high building rate, so the city looks taller. However, the demand for lease is a bit low. The structure created by the lease is a bit slower compared to other cities. It takes a while to build, but once it's built, it goes quickly. That's the characteristic. Each region has its own characteristics. The demand for lease is low because people are buying houses. They need to gather in lease, but now the lease is creating the market. Since the demand for lease is low, it takes a bit of time to create it. However, looking at the supply, it should already be rising, but it moves a bit slowly for that reason. Oh, you need to study the regional characteristics well. As for Daegu, Daegu needs a bit more time.

I want to buy, but Megal is rising a lot on top of places like Suseong-gu. Since the jeonse price is rising, it has to go up, so you have to pass that. Daegu has a lot of supply that needs to be absorbed. It should be next year. Busan is the same. The supply in Busan has decreased a bit, but even though the supply is low, there is a lot of existing inventory, so it seems to need some time to digest. Therefore, I think Busan will be a bit faster than Daegu. In terms of prices, Marydae has more in Daegu. When you look at the prices, Daegu is a bit faster. Also, when you look at the supply, Busan is faster. So, it's similar. Suseong-gu is not cheap. Suseong-gu has increased a lot from the peak to the bottom. Consider other places besides Suseong-gu. It's scary. It's okay. It's a metropolitan city with 2 million people. Uh, Daegu.

Don't ignore that. Yes, there are areas that play a central role in the market structure. It always gets better there. When I visited a real estate agency in Daegu, some people said, Daegu has Line 2, doesn't it? Investing in Line 2 like this man. But excluding Suseong-gu, what do you think is the second and third best areas from an investment perspective? Line 2, not Line A, is still the best. When I give lectures, I organize the order, but looking at the whole picture, Line 2 is the best. Some people look towards the Dongdaegu area, and some towards Banwoldang, right? There are also those who look at that area. After transportation, the area with the highest prices maintained is Line 2, which spans across China. That's the best. Prices will rise there.

It's okay to exclude that. The accumulated supply in the regions fits well. However, it fits best in metropolitan cities. When it comes to smaller cities, the probability drops a bit. When I analyze this data, it seems correct to look at the long-term accumulated supply in the capital area. Oh, the long-term accumulated supply. I look at two of them. One is the supply in three years, and I compare the two. By comparing the two, I observe how the overall housing prices move. Now, in the capital area, since the scale is large, the supply has a significant impact on the market. It's like the time it takes to fill a container, right? It's about whether it's decreasing or increasing. In metropolitan cities and small cities, the time it takes to fill is faster in small cities. This time, the supply will be the fastest.

I felt that here, the reason why Sodosi's region is rising a bit faster is because of this, you know. Oh, what? In Mungyeong, Jeonju, earlier, because the market environment that involves a shortage of supply is better here. It moves faster, you know. And then, this varies by region. Ulsan was quite scarce, while Daegu had a lot, Busan had a lot, and there were cars. Yes, now, in the metropolitan area, the metropolitan area needs to consider the supply for three years and the total cumulative supply together. And then, you also need to look at the rental supply and the rental rate together. There are more things to consider. You need to look at the overall environment together because you can't just focus on a specific region. So, it's difficult for us to predict the rise in the metropolitan area, but it's difficult to predict the decline. Once it rises, the energy keeps going up.

It's easy, but it takes a lot of time to put all that energy there and create a certain environment, which is not easy to find. In fact, that's why I made a judgment mistake this time. I thought I would go down, so from 23 to 22, we were supposed to do it until the first half of 22, 23, 24, 25. If it falls down, I thought I would start rising again. I thought of it like this. I thought of it as one cycle. But this rose too quickly, fell too quickly, and now it's coming really fast, urgently, and rapidly. Because it's coming rapidly again, it's like connecting this as one cycle. Right now, there is a duty to do this a bit. We still have some quests remaining. We need to think about it a bit. The speed seems too fast. Really, that's why.

Do you think about it? The lease, unlike the past, maybe it's not a long cycle of rise and fall in the metropolitan area, but rather, like in local areas, it may have short-term ups and downs. I once thought about it. Why did I think so? Well, I thought that because of the high lease prices. In the past, when it fell, the lease rates in places like Gangnam dropped by around 30%. Now it has stopped at around 40% and is rising. In Seoul and the metropolitan area, the overall lease rates used to drop by around 40%, but now they have stopped at 50% to 60%. It's close to 50%. Now, in the entire metropolitan area, it's about 60%. If it's at such a high level, when it moves, the range of movement is very fast. It goes up and down in a very short time, accelerating. Even in local areas, like small cities, the lease rates are at 70% to 80%. Then it moves quickly, extinguishes quickly.

When it comes to back and forth, this is about the lease price. What's interesting is that it represents the future of our housing market. If you elaborate more on the future, it would be great. The lease rate indicates the limit of growth. Do you know where the growth in the housing market comes from? As I mentioned earlier, I compared it to stocks. The growth comes from the ability of the housing to produce. What is that ability? It's not the lease price, not 10 billion or 20 billion won, but the lease price growth rate. How much is the growth rate? Do you know where the highest is? In Seoul, it's 7.8% every year. Every year, 7.8%. On average, according to statistics from 1986 to 23, of course, in the middle, it goes up. Seoul is the first, so it increases the most up to the sale.

Put it in, and the metropolitan area is 6%, 5% in the latter half, when it goes back and forth, it becomes 4%, 3%. The future cash flow is quite small. A low growth rate means that if the Jeonse (lease deposit) growth rate is high, we will receive a lot in the future, so as the Jeonse increases, the Jeonse will be taken. We think like this. If the Jeonse growth rate is high, the Jeonse will stick. On the contrary, if the Jeonse growth rate is high, the market will expand. Do you understand? Opposite. Because the Jeonse growth in the provinces is low, there is no way for the mega to go up. It won't be reflected. It won't be reflected, so it sticks exactly. It feels a bit like a dividend stock, right? We won't receive future cash flow. It's only 3% in the future cash flow. This one is 7%. That 7% is reflected, so Seoul is far away, and going small is because we are in the provinces. That's MBD, dividend stocks. But now, above that, Mega is a bit of a dividend stock, right?

Multiple, multiple, multiple, yes, there are places where multiples are far away. Gangnam in Seoul. That's right. Yes, the place we are going is in our region. They give a lot of multiples because there is growth potential. That's why it spreads. It spreads, yes, it spreads a lot. Gangnam has a high spread. Yes, it's the same principle. Who decided that? It was determined by the increase in housing lease prices. So, how does the increase in housing lease prices come out? It comes from income and new income. They are connected, demand and income. There is another plus, alpha. This is the region's characteristics. The region's characteristics include a lot of tourism cities. Industries or tourism. Here, another plus, alpha is included. Even if there are the same population in the same city, tourism is included.

There are cities that are doing well. The rent has increased significantly. Which city could it be? For example, think about a city that is well-known for tourism and where we often visit for fun. Even if it's the same city, there is Sokcho. Sokcho has a population of only about 100,000. Probably, a city with a population of 100,000 is just right globally. Sokcho is the best when it comes to that. Many people visit Sokcho for tourism. Agree? Sokcho has the highest demand and the highest supply. It has the most transactions. That's the city to invest in. Usually, when the population is the same, the same amount of transactions and rental transactions come out. It's fascinating how they all come out the same. Now, where is the most representative place? Gangneung or Bukbu. These two are surprisingly similar. The rent prices are the same. Oh, yes, the sales listings are the same too. Gangwon-do has a population...

It's 1,520,000 won, and it's 1,590,000 won. Chungbuk is similar. However, Gangwon Province had a larger population in the 1990s than now, less than China. This is decreasing, while this is increasing. It increased in the middle. Meeting in the middle, they created demand and supply. What they created are removal houses. There are 320,000 here and 340,000 there. It's the same in terms of population ratio, it's 20:4. The average trading volume is 2,900 here and 2,800 there. But in March, the trading volume is 1,564 and 1,626. When calculated as a ratio, it's 7.48 and 7.4, the same. This is without investors entering at the moment, just taking out the existing amount. It's off by 0.04 at the end. It's quite amazing, isn't it? Right, lease prices, how are they?

In April, the average monthly rent here is 2,000, and here it is 18,000. Here, now in April, it's 2,100. Here, it's a bit more, right? It's not Chungbuk, it's a bit less. Yes, here is a bit more. Where is a good market? Where is good? Gangwon Province is good, right? Gangwon Province is currently going up, you see? The reason Gangwon Province is going up is one thing. They are all the same, but here, this one thing, the rent, should we take a look at it once? The listings are now out. The listings are at 1,200. Oh, 15,230 listings for rent. Take a look at the rent once. Rent at 2,000, 2,100, and 80. It's amazing, right? No matter how much the government tries, no matter what they do, the market functions as it is. Listings come out, rents come out, supply is balanced. It just naturally balances out. The balance is perfectly in place now. But where is it breaking? It broke here, didn't it?

The jeonse is broken, isn't it? Going up here, that's a strong exercise. So, as I mentioned, starting from jeonse, this market is being built now. Trading is just a result of the phenomenon. So, we need to look at the inventory. Our inventory is now 82,000 in Seoul, 82,000 is the maximum, they say it's a collapse. If there are people who shouted the collapse, I want to tell them to take a look at this. It seems like they might not be able to interpret this. They can't interpret this. Look at this. For jeonse and trading to increase by two, it's the same. This is all about demand. Here, I extracted all the demand. In my book, it comes out in the back of the book. It goes into the professional section behind me. Yes, the national demand. All the demand we created like this goes in. If you disclose the national demand, are you scared? It's not partially disclosed, it's all over the country. We did it all over the country, but only the main part goes in the first edition. It doesn't go into the second edition. It only goes into the first edition, not the second edition. It's like a special block like this.

I'm going into a separate chapter. There is no link yet, and I haven't seen any content. In the end, it's called the secret of rising house prices. It seems like a book is coming out after a few years. It came out after 5 years. So, in the first edition, they broke the demand with a special program. Oh, the expression is a bit low. I shared the data I analyzed about demand. It seems like it will be out in no time, but the government implemented policies like the lease protection law. When they increase the supply, after about 6 months or a year, the market returns to its original state. Originally, what functions does the market have? Through those functions, the demand in the area, the supply in the area, the number of properties, and the properties that people put up for sale in certain houses, all create the market. That's how the market works and changes.

It starts with the external supply coming in. When that comes in, the justification of the jeonse starts, and the market is created. This is what is happening now. The era of interest rates is ending, and it is now returning to demand and supply. The fundamental starting point of demand and supply is the jeonse. But jeonse also needs to rise. The second is that it should come from the supply instability. It should come from the supply instability. It is connected, so it continues or lasts for 2 to 3 years. But if the interest rates are not connected, whether they stop or fall, or go the other way, it is connected. So, we can now put our minds to it and make choices. It becomes comfortable for 2 to 3 years. So, that is the role played in the supply.

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The overall atmosphere in major South Korean metropolitan cities is currently slow, with Daegu and Busan being the slowest, while Ulsan is the fastest.

Daejeon has seen a slight increase with a significant amount of supply.

The rise in these areas is expected to occur next year, with some differences in timing.

The recovery and rise of small cities and provinces are outpacing larger metropolitan areas, with Gwangju and Ulsan expected to improve soon, despite Ulsan having its own unique characteristics and slower demand for lease.

Real Estate Market Trends in Daegu and Busan

Rising jeonse prices are driving up the real estate market in Daegu and Busan, with Daegu expected to see a faster increase in prices.

The supply of housing in Busan is decreasing, but the existing inventory means it will take time to adjust, making Daegu's market faster.

Despite the potential in Suseong-gu and along Line 2, excluding those areas, Dongdaegu and Banwoldang are seen as the next best areas for investment.

Rapid Changes in Real Estate Market Dynamics

The real estate market in South Korea is experiencing rapid and urgent fluctuations, driven by high lease prices.

Different regions in South Korea have varying supply and demand dynamics, leading to short-term ups and downs, especially in local areas.

The metropolitan area, including Seoul, is seeing lease rates stop at 50% to 60%, causing fast and unpredictable movements in the market.

The Impact of Lease Prices on the Future Housing Market

Lease prices in Seoul are experiencing a high growth rate of 7.

8% annually, driving significant market expansion.

The growth in housing lease prices is linked to the future cash flow and the region's growth potential, particularly in areas like Gangnam.

Additionally, the increase in lease prices is influenced by demand, income, and the unique characteristics of each region, including tourism and industry.

Real Estate Market Analysis of Sokcho and Gangneung

Sokcho, a city with a population of about 100,000, is experiencing high demand and supply in its real estate market, making it a prime location for investment.

Gangneung, with similar rent prices and sales listings to Sokcho, is also showing a balanced market.

The two cities, located in Gangwon Province, have seen a shift in population and housing prices, with Sokcho showing a slightly increasing trend, making it a potential hotspot in the real estate market.

The Impact of Jeonse on the Housing Market

The housing market in Seoul is experiencing a significant increase in jeonse and trading, driven by high demand.

The rising house prices are attributed to the imbalance between demand and supply, with the government implementing policies to address this issue.

The market is expected to stabilize as the focus shifts from the era of interest rates to the fundamental principles of demand and supply, ultimately impacting the role of jeonse.