US Election 2024: Candidates' Foreign Policy and Domestic Challenges

The US election reveals global dissatisfaction, with voters seeking change amid economic struggles and rising tensions.

### The Impact of the Upcoming US Election on Domestic and Foreign Policy
* 👋 Helen Walters, head of media and curation at Ted, introduces Ian Bremmer, a geopolitical expert and president of Eurasia Group, to discuss the **significance of the upcoming US election on a global scale**.
* 🗳 As early voting begins ahead of the November 5th election, Bremmer highlights that voters are driven by **dissatisfaction with their current circumstances**, a sentiment echoed in many recent elections worldwide.
* 🌍 He notes that inflation, migration, and various geopolitical challenges contribute to a **climate of discontent**, making this election particularly contentious in the US, where political division and misinformation are at an **all-time high**.
* 🔍 Bremmer emphasizes the unique dynamics of the US election, where **disillusionment with candidates** is prevalent, and many voters may **refuse to accept the election results**, especially following **recent assassination attempts against Trump**.
* 🌐 Transitioning to foreign policy, Bremmer discusses the contrasting governance styles of Biden and Harris, noting Biden's **extensive experience and established relationships** versus Harris's reliance on a **more traditional cabinet structure**.
* 👥 Regarding personnel, Bremmer suggests that Trump's decision-making will often be **impulsive**, while Harris will likely surround herself with **established foreign policy experts**, indicating a **more collaborative approach**.
* 🕊 On Middle Eastern policy, Bremmer predicts that while both candidates support Israel, Harris would **push for humanitarian aid for Palestinians**, contrasting with Trump's **more aggressive stance towards Iran** and **lack of support for a two-state solution**.
* 🇺🇦 Lastly, when addressing US-Russia relations, Bremmer outlines that Trump's reluctance to engage militarily could lead to a **freeze in the Ukraine conflict**, impacting **European alliances** and raising concerns about **US support for Ukraine moving forward**.

### Diverging Policies: Trump vs. Harris on Global Conflicts, Climate Change, and Immigration
* 🌍 The discussion highlights how Trump's approach to foreign policy may involve **unilateral negotiations with Russia**, potentially undermining the **multilateral strategies** that have characterized Biden's administration, particularly in NATO's **collective response to the Russia-Ukraine conflict**.
* 🤝 Harris, in contrast, would likely advocate for a **multilateral approach**, ensuring that **Ukrainian interests are prioritized** in any negotiations, potentially offering **NATO membership as a security guarantee** to Ukraine.
* 💡 The candidates' differing strategies reflect their overall philosophies, with Trump favoring **direct engagement** and Harris focusing on **coalition-building and support for Ukraine's territorial integrity**.
* 🌪 Climate change is presented as an **urgent issue**, with young people increasingly **disillusioned about meaningful action**; Harris is expected to promote **green energy initiatives**, while Trump may prioritize **fossil fuel production**.
* 💰 Both candidates are predicted to adopt expansionary fiscal policies, with Trump likely **extending tax cuts and increasing defense spending**, while Harris may **raise taxes on the wealthy to fund social programs**.
* 🔍 The conversation about immigration reveals surprising alignment between the candidates, with both potentially adopting **tougher policies**, although their rhetoric differs significantly, especially regarding the **treatment of immigrants**.
* 📉 The pandemic of misinformation is recognized as a **significant threat to democracy**, with calls for **accountability from tech companies** and a push for **verified human participation in online discourse** to combat disinformation.
* ⚠ Finally, there is a concern about potential violence following the election, with predictions of unrest driven by **disbelief in the electoral process**, emphasizing the need for **civic engagement and informed voting**.

Harris vs. Trump — and What’s at Stake for the World | TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer

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The US election, with candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, is being shaped by global discontent and high inflation.

Voter dissatisfaction and political division are at an all-time high, making the election outcome uncertain.

The candidates' approaches to foreign policy and governance will differ significantly, with Biden's experience contrasting with Harris's traditional cabinet reliance and Trump's instinctive decision-making.

Leadership Dynamics and Middle East Changes

Trump's leadership decisions are often made last minute, with a mix of familiar faces and surprising appointments for his next administration.

Kamala Harris is in the early stages of decision-making for her team, with key figures like Phil Gordon and Bill Burns being potential candidates for significant roles.

The ongoing war in the Middle East is causing a shift in the power dynamics, with organizations like Hamas and Hezbollah struggling to maintain their fighting capabilities, while Israel's military actions have disrupted their escalation efforts.

Influence on Israeli Decision-Making in the Middle East

The Israeli response to Iranian attacks is complicated by the U.

's strong support for Israel, making it challenging for Iran to effectively escalate the situation.

influence on Israeli decision-making is often overstated, and President Biden has been reluctant to use leverage or impose consequences on Israel.

on Israel's actions may vary with different presidential candidates, with Harris likely to push for more humanitarian aid for Palestinians and multilateral cooperation, while Trump may support more aggressive actions against Iran and a departure from the two-state solution.

US-Russia Relations: Potential Changes with a New President

The approach to Russia is expected to differ significantly between the two presidential candidates.

Trump's administration previously provided military aid to Ukraine and imposed tough sanctions on Russia, countering the narrative of his close relationship with Putin.

If re-elected, Trump may use a combination of diplomacy and sanctions to pressure both Ukraine and Russia for a ceasefire, potentially dividing European support.

The Impact of Leadership on Russia-Ukraine Policy

Trump is unlikely to coordinate with European allies on Russia-Ukraine policy, contrasting with Biden's successful multilateral approach.

Harris would adopt a similar multilateral strategy, emphasizing Ukrainian involvement and offering NATO membership as a security guarantee.

The candidates' ultimate policy outcomes may be similar, but their approaches and mechanisms for achieving them would be radically different.

Transition to Sustainable Energy and Immigration

is producing more oil than ever under the Harris-Biden Administration, with a potential continuation of this trend.

Trump's administration is expected to ease permitting for drilling and infrastructure, while both administrations may move faster to permit nuclear energy.

and China are becoming superpowers in energy, with the U.

transitioning from carbon to post-carbon energy, but the gap between them and the global South is likely to grow.

On immigration, there is increasing alignment between Harris and Trump, with blue cities struggling to manage the influx of immigrants.

Immigration Policies and Economic Impact of Harris and Trump

Harris is likely to continue Biden's tough immigration policies, which are similar to Trump's approach.

Both candidates would be expansionary in fiscal spending, with Trump focusing on tax cuts and defense spending, while Harris would increase tax rates and expand social programs.

The pandemic of misinformation is a growing concern, and addressing it requires changing the profit-driven algorithms that spread disinformation.

The Need for Responsible Corporate Leadership and the Potential for Post-Election Violence

Corporate leadership must take responsibility for their impact on democracy and society, with a call for regulation to address negative externalities.

The potential for violence after the election is a concern, with the possibility of unrest and intimidation surrounding the voting process.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of voting and expresses excitement about participating in the upcoming election as an American citizen.