Latino Voters: Key to 2024 Election Outcomes

Latino voters, increasingly identifying as independent, hold the key to swing states in a tight election.

### The Shifting Landscape of Latino Voter Support in the 2024 Election
* 🗳 Democrats are experiencing a decline in Latino support, losing more voters than Republicans are gaining, as more Latinos identify as **independent rather than Democratic**.
* 🔍 The opportunity for both parties lies in **effectively courting these undecided Latino voters**, who could **significantly impact key swing states** in a closely contested presidential race.
* 📈 Since 2000, the Latino population in the US has **nearly doubled**, with younger, more **Americanized voters** showing different voting patterns compared to their immigrant parents.
* 💼 Economic issues remain a top concern for Latino voters, many of whom belong to the **working class** and face challenges such as **low wages and job stability**.
* 🏠 Kamala Harris has proposed initiatives like **$25,000 in down payment assistance** for first-time home buyers, which could particularly benefit **Latino families**.
* 📊 In contrast, Trump emphasizes his **economic record** and proposes **job creation through tariffs and tax incentives**, while also connecting immigration issues to **economic concerns**.
* 🔒 Both parties are adapting their immigration policies, with Democrats taking a **stricter stance** and Republicans advocating for **extreme measures**, though many Latino voters do not feel **personally targeted** by Trump's rhetoric.
* 📅 As Latino voters are projected to become the **second largest racial block** in the electorate, both parties are racing to **secure their support** in the final weeks leading up to the election.

- [Reporter] Democrats are winning Latino support with smaller margins than they have in the last four elections. But if you look at gains and losses, you'll see that Democrats are losing more Latino voters than Republicans are gaining. That's partly because while fewer Latinos are identifying as Democratic, more are saying they're independent, meaning they're up for grabs for either party. - Therein lies the opportunity depending on who really decides to court and win over the support of these voters. - [Reporter] In a year where the presidential race is neck and neck, undecided Latino voters could play a major role in key swing states, if Harris and Trump can convince them to vote at all. - Latinos have the weakest partisan anchor of any race or ethnicity in the country. - [Reporter] Here's why Latino voters are so difficult to pin down and how both parties are trying to win them over before election day. - Puerto Ricans, let's stay united.

Let's vote for Trump. - We're gonna say, Sí se puede. (audience cheers) - [Reporter] To understand what's going on here, you need to understand how the Latino population in the US has grown. Since 2000, it's nearly doubled in size, and a larger percentage is born in the US. - The children of immigrants vote very differently than the immigrants themselves, and the grandchildren of immigrants, it's like a tectonic shift. It's a younger, more Americanized, more acculturated voter, and they're not terribly dissimilar from their white counterparts. - [Reporter] Second-generation Hispanics and higher identify less as Hispanic and more as American than foreign-born Hispanics, and they identify less with the countries their families come from. - The highest numbers of alignment with the Democratic side are actually older Latinos, and where you are seeing more of the churn is among younger voters. - [Reporter] Newer Latino voters

are more likely to classify themselves as independent than more established Latino voters. - We have a really disaffected community here, young people who simply don't believe that the politicians of either party are actually going to do anything. - [Reporter] Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant, says there are a number of reasons for this, but one big one is the state of the economy. - The economic standing and the quality of life of Latinos has not improved markedly in a lot of places. It doesn't mean that there aren't a lot of growth in the middle class, but broadly speaking, there are far too many that are still left behind. - [Reporter] The economy consistently ranks as one of the top issues for Latino voters who make up an increasing portion of the working class, typically defined as workers without a college degree. - We are talking about a community that definitely is made up of working families where people are concerned about the wages

that their jobs are paying, where people sometimes have to take more than one job to make ends meet, and the stability and the quality of those jobs. - [Reporter] Both candidates are focusing on this in their messaging to Latino voters. - I know prices are too high still. You know prices are too high still. And we have to deal with it. - Many folks have talked about Democrats' struggle to connect with the American working class or in general on economic issues. - [Reporter] Harris' campaign released an ad in September about affordable housing and food prices aimed at Latino voters in Pennsylvania. - She heard the cries of families getting their homes taken away by corrupt banks. - [Reporter] Harris has said that part of her plan for affordable housing would include $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time home buyers. - Her proposal offers down payment home buyer assistance, not just to people who have never owned a home before,

which is a lot of Latinos, but to people who've generationally never owned a home before. Now, she may not be specifically saying it's a Latino proposal, but overwhelmingly this benefits Latinos in this economy. - [Reporter] In an interview with Spanish language broadcaster Telemundo, she also announced that she would remove college degree requirements for federal government positions. - Part of my plan includes understanding that skills and experience should be as important as a college degree in determining who is a qualified worker to take on a job. - [Reporter] Trump has focused on his economic record during his presidency. - We had the greatest economy in the history of our country. Now we have a lousy economy, primarily because of inflation. - One of the areas where Republicans have an advantage is that they have been able to solidify a perception that if voters are more concerned about the economy, they should look more at the Republican side.

- [Reporter] In round tables and town halls with Latino voters, Trump has spoken about creating more jobs with his energy and tariff plans. - It's gonna happen very fast through intelligent taxation, tariffs, and incentives, and you're gonna have companies pouring into our country. - [Reporter] He's also associated economic issues with immigration, the issue he polls highest on. - Now, let me tell you what is happening at the border because it's affecting you probably more than anybody else. African Americans, Hispanic Americans. People are pouring in and taking your jobs. - [Reporter] Immigration is one of the top issues among Latino voters, though it ranks lower among younger age groups. But the immigration policies Latino voters are looking for are changing. While they overwhelmingly support pathways to citizenship, just in the last year there's been an uptick in prioritizing border security. - I think some folks assume that being for border security

equates with being anti-immigrant, but that is a very wrong assumption. - [Reporter] The Democratic Party has taken up a stricter stance on border security this year. - The United States is a sovereign nation, and I believe we have a duty to set rules at our border and to enforce them. - [Reporter] And Trump is advocating for extreme measures. - We will begin the largest deportation operation in American history, and we have no choice. (audience cheers) - [Reporter] Some experts say that Trump takes his language about immigration too far. - Kamala has imported an army of illegal alien gang members and migrant criminals from the dungeons of the Third World. - [Reporter] But most Latinos, particularly US-born Latinos, don't think that Trump is talking about them when he talks about problems with immigration. - It's easier, I think, to ignore the awful language when you agree with the solution.

- [Reporter] Both parties are aiming to increase their standing with this group who make a bigger difference in the electorate than ever. In 1996, Latinos made up just over 6% of eligible voters. In 2012, they crossed double digits. But this year, they'll pass up Black voters as the second largest block by race in the US. And this pool of voters has spread out further across the country. - The reality is that Latinos are a national population, and in speaking electorally, we know that they are going to be a decisive factor in shaping the political landscape in places like Arizona and Nevada for sure, but also in places like Pennsylvania and even in places like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, where Latinos in 2020 voted in numbers larger than the presidential margins of victory in those states. - [Reporter] These are swing states that could go either way in a tight election,

but Latino voters also have one of the lowest voter turnout rates. One of the issues with this electorate is looking at the pool that is unregistered, and because we are adding about a million every year, that pool is gonna be growing consistently. [Reporter] But for this year, both parties are fighting to lock down these undecided voters in the final weeks before the election. (gentle music)

Why Harris Is Struggling With 2024’s Latino Vote | WSJ State of the Stat

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The Wall Street Journal

Democrats are losing Latino voters at a higher rate than Republicans are gaining them, leading to more Latinos identifying as independent.

The Latino population in the US has nearly doubled since 2000, with younger, Americanized voters showing different voting patterns than their immigrant parents.

The economic standing and quality of life for many Latinos have not improved significantly, making the economy a top concern for this working-class community.

Candidates' Focus on Economic Issues for Latino Voters

Both candidates are addressing job stability and high living costs in their messaging to Latino voters.

Harris' campaign is promoting affordable housing and food prices, with a proposal for $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time home buyers.

Trump is highlighting his economic record during his presidency, aiming to shift voter perception towards the Republican side on economic concerns.

Trump has focused on job creation and economic issues in his talks with Latino voters, linking them to immigration.

While immigration is a top concern, Latino voters' priorities are shifting towards border security.

Trump's extreme measures and controversial language on immigration have drawn criticism, but many US-born Latinos feel he isn't targeting them with his rhetoric.

Latinos are becoming a significant electoral force, now representing the second largest racial group of eligible voters in the US.

Their impact is felt in key swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, where their votes have exceeded presidential margins of victory.

Despite their growing numbers, Latino voters have one of the lowest turnout rates, with a consistently increasing pool of unregistered individuals.