Apple and Magnificent Seven: Earnings Outlook and Market Trends

Apple's earnings growth remains strong, but market optimism is tempered by potential future risks.

### Optimism Amidst Earnings: Analyzing Apple's Role in the Magnificent Seven
* 📈 As the earnings season approaches, there is a sense of optimism surrounding companies like Apple, which are expected to report **solid revenue and earnings growth** despite a slight slowdown compared to the first half of the year.
* 💡 The Magnificent Seven, a group of influential tech companies, significantly boosted the S&P 500 in the first half of the year, but their earnings growth expectations have now moderated to around **19%**, marking the **slowest rate in six quarters**.
* 📊 While the market reached new highs earlier in the year, there are signs of a potential breather, as the anticipated **rally into the year's end may not materialize as expected**.
* 🔍 The semiconductor sector remains a favorite, particularly companies involved in **AI**, which are expected to continue **driving demand and growth** despite current high valuations.
* 🖥 Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on November 21 will be closely monitored for indications of **continued investment from major tech firms**, known as Hyperscalers, in their products.
* 💰 Analysts believe that capital expenditure (CapEx) will remain robust in the short term, as companies are unlikely to cut back on spending unless there is a **significant slowdown in revenue or rising costs**.
* ⏳ However, there is a cautionary note regarding potential risks for later in 2025, should **economic conditions change and affect these companies' earnings growth**.

Let's just talk a little bit about Apple. And as it sits in the context of the Magnificent Seven, just as we look towards next week and we start to get this bumper crop of earnings, you if be optimistic. Well, we are feeling optimistic. I mean, these are companies that are growing their earnings and their revenues, and they have had a little bit of a, you know, I guess not slowdown, but they haven't been as strong as they were in the first half of the year. And the fundamentals underlying them in terms of driving their revenues and their earnings are still pretty strong. So we're hopeful that we can get some good reports out of them. So that is very interesting. Thomas, I will if you allow me to do a bit of scene setting. I think we agree that the Max seven were a big driver of the S&P 500 in the first half of this year, but that's kind of changed since July, right when that

index, if you call it an index, peaked. And if you take the basket of the mag seven or the five, that will report next, I think the earnings growth expectations about 19%, sub 20% way beyond the S&P 500. But it's also the slowest rate of EPS growth for like six quarters. So how optimistic are you? Give us the sort of relative frame of reference? Well, I think that's a good point. And I think that applies also to the market in general, is that we did have a big run up to a new high and we're we're back above that high again. I mean, we're off at a little bit now from the all time high, but here we are and that's the seasonality of the market has really been brought forward in every case. And so we were supposed to maybe had some weakness here in September and October. October is almost over and we really haven't seen that.

And we're supposed to have a rally into the end of the year from that weakened point. And we may not get that. It may have been kind of pull through. And so one reason to not be as optimistic is regardless of what the results are, is that the market says, you know, we just we need to take a little breather here for these companies that are up so strongly. I mean, 27% on the Russell 1000 growth and the MGIC, you know, the large cap growth. Thomas, which corners of the very large world of technology do you like the most? Well, we still do like the semiconductor companies that are part of the AI movement. And so even though India is back up to its old high, the outlook for what they have and the demand for their product and just the underlying driver of the need for this large language models, etc., and the AI is still in the early early

innings of it. So, those are companies that, even though, you know, along with the other companies in the index, are at highs, still have the fundamentals to support it. And we also like those industrials that would fit that method too. What's interesting with Nvidia is we have to wait all the way to the 21st of November for their numbers, but we're going to get a lot of signals coming from the so-called Hyperscalers, where it's Alphabet, Amazon, the spending coming from. Matter how much is still going to be ultimately ploughed in to Nvidia's chips. Do you think that this quarter will still show that level of commitment and investment that we've been used to in the previous quarters? Well, it will be critical, and everybody is going to be watching those CapEx numbers very carefully. I do think that it will still be there. It's too early for them to back off. And the reason that they would back off

on their capital spending is if there is a slowdown in their revenues and their business and their costs. Other costs go up, they would need to cut back in order to keep the EPS growth going. But I, I don't think that we're at that point yet or maybe even in the next couple of quarters. That could be a risk, though, for later on in 2025.

Globalt's Martin Optimistic About Tech Earnings

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Bloomberg Technology

Apple's earnings and revenue growth has slowed since the first half of the year, but the fundamentals driving them remain strong.

The Magnificent Seven companies, including Apple, are expected to report a 19% earnings growth, which is the slowest rate in six quarters.

Despite a recent market pullback, the overall market has remained resilient and above its previous highs.

Market Outlook and Technology Sector Focus

The market may take a breather despite strong company performances, raising concerns about a year-end rally.

The speaker remains optimistic about semiconductor companies driving the AI movement and industrials supporting that growth.

Nvidia's upcoming numbers and the spending from Hyperscalers like Alphabet and Amazon will be crucial in determining the continued commitment and investment in their chips.

A slowdown in revenues and increased costs could force a company to cut back on capital spending to maintain EPS growth.

However, this situation is not expected to occur in the near term.

The risk of needing to cut back on spending may arise later in 2025.