Please subscribe, like, turn on notifications, and leave comments. We have talked a lot about the financial crisis, and these days, we can see some signs of it. It's not just a problem in our country. In Korea, the financial crisis is almost here. Savings banks have disappeared more quickly than during the savings bank crisis, and with the collapse of Maegu, the government forcibly stopped it, but signs of continued insolvency are emerging. Even if it's like that in Korea, when a financial crisis erupts, where does it usually start? Even in Korea, when a real financial crisis hit, where did it come from? When the global financial crisis hit the United States, it had a significant impact on Korea. So, we need to accurately assess the situation in the United States right now. Some say that something bigger than the financial crisis may come from the United States this time.

I mentioned earlier that we are seeing such signs right now, so I would like to talk about that. Even if inflation is not under control, they lower the interest rates. The reason for this is that if the tightening policy is eased too late or too little, it could excessively worsen economic activity and employment. At that time, what did they say? They said they would maintain the tightening prayer until it reaches 2%. They talked like this, saying that signs are appearing that the labor market is cooling down faster than expected, not only in terms of inflation. Therefore, stagflation poses risks on both sides. In the case of the United States, they are enduring a bit more, while in our country, the domestic market is already being hit hard. The problem is that recently, even Trump mentioned before the election not to raise interest rates until the end of this year and to raise taxes more.

Don't do it quickly. Even though he was against it, Powell, who suddenly reminded of the Powell who was gone, is now talking about interest rates. It sounds very bad. If you look now, the unemployment rate is suddenly rising rapidly. It maintained a level, but since the middle of last year, it has been gradually going up and down, up and down, up and down, and now it is steadily rising. Suddenly, since the beginning of this year, the unemployment rate has exceeded 4%. But if you look at the financial crisis, it was around 4% at that time, going up and down, and suddenly started to rise steadily again. But if this doesn't end in a short period, what will happen? If the financial crisis bursts, it kept rising steadily. Of course, if the financial crisis bursts,

Although the interest rates have gone up, can the unemployment rate suddenly decrease just because I raise them? The reason why employment was high was that consumption was strong in the United States, but now consumption is not strong. Why isn't consumption strong now? It's not just because of interest rates, there is still a serious inflation problem. So both consumer spending and non-consumer spending are increasing simultaneously. The consumption that has been supporting the U.S. economy for a while was what kind of consumption? It was a type where people were not saving and were excessively spending. So what happened? It is seen as running out of funds. Even in stores, it's like that, so now, lowering interest rates to try to revive somehow. If it continues to rise faster like this, this is what will happen. At first, slowly.

As it goes up, when this accelerates, it explodes greatly in the financial system. But right now, it's very similar to the early stages. Here, discussions about interest rates or expectations are emerging. It's been a while since it emerged, and the difference lies in whether it will bend or not. The likelihood of it not bending seems to be very high. This is about interest payments. This is the amount of interest payments in the United States. How does the U.S. release money? Just because the U.S. prints money, ta-da, prints dollars infinitely and releases money, then there will be a huge problem with the value of the currency. So, how should money be released? They issue government bonds. What does a government bond mean? It's a bond, a bond. What does a bond mean? In the end, it's a debt. Debt, in other words, debt that needs to be repaid with interest.

So, the amount of money going out as interest costs increased very quickly, then dropped once, increased rapidly again, then the global financial crisis hit and dropped again. It kept increasing, then dropped during the US-China trade war and the COVID-19 period, but if you look at it now, during this period marked in black, it was the time when the US economy was in a recession. If you look, you can always see signs before it happens. Interest rates spike here too. After the 2000s, when the US government's interest payments suddenly increased sharply, a recession followed immediately. And even here, when it kept increasing suddenly and sharply, another recession followed. But now, the US is experiencing the fastest increase in interest payments in its history. This means that now, after COVID-19, regarding finances.

When it comes to the meeting, if this doesn't pass, it defaults. This kind of talk has already come up twice. That's because the interest and expenditure of the United States have been increasing rapidly. It means that there is only one pot of money to use. You should see it as connected. Whether the U.S. will increase taxes or cut them, we need to look at these aspects more closely. But as the money earned decreases due to the rising unemployment rate and the economy is getting worse, even securing tax revenue becomes clearly separated. Even in our country, it shows. In our country, tax revenue is being properly secured. We always talk about how exciting it is and how exports are doing well, but taxes are being collected properly. Especially, where it has been greatly reduced is in corporate taxes. So, even in our country, since domestic consumption is not good, taxes are not being collected. In the U.S., as domestic consumption is gradually worsening, tax collection is decreasing.

In terms of the store, income is decreasing, but non-consumption expenditures have increased significantly. Because of this, there is a high possibility of a decrease in income, and with the fact that exports are not happening, it is likely that tax cuts will decrease even further. It is not easy to reduce taxes in this situation, and in such circumstances, the rapid increase in non-consumption expenditures indicates that the U.S. economy is facing significant difficulties. However, the problem is that even though interest rates are being lowered, prices are stabilizing. But raising interest rates does not immediately stabilize prices. Just like lowering interest rates doesn't immediately affect prices, there is a certain lag time. Before lowering or raising interest rates, there is always an announcement first. We will soon lower interest rates. We will soon raise interest rates. Statements like these are made, and based on that, it affects the benchmark interest rate.

Bond interest rates move first. The reason for raising the base rate is to raise the market rate. So, when the market rate goes up, money is sucked into the market to control inflation. Conversely, when the base rate is lowered, the market rate goes down, creating an environment where people can borrow more and deposit less, and money flows. So, even though it doesn't directly affect the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it directly affects producers. So, when was the statement about interest rate cuts made? In December, it was said that the interest rate would be cut three times. When such stories come out, producer prices were steadily falling, but suddenly after that statement in December, producer prices have been steadily rising. This creates a sentiment that rates will be lowered soon, three times this year. Even if they don't lower it three times this year, Yellen will loosen money again. So, producers...

Prices are rising rapidly again. However, producer prices are applied to consumer prices with a time lag. So, when talking about interest rates or expectations, prices are creeping up again. As I always mentioned, I talked a lot about the first oil shock this time. After the first oil shock, as the economy was not good and inflation was not completely controlled, adjustments were made. It was not like what we did in Korea; it was almost done openly. Lowering interest rates led to uncontrollable inflation. The signs of that are still visible now. The problem is if Trump is elected, what did he say? He said he would impose tariffs. If tariffs are imposed, prices will naturally rise because it means buying tariffs expensively. This is a very obvious thing, so what Trump said

Yes, indeed, Powell is pressuring not to lower the interest rates for now. However, he did mention that it seems likely to decrease. The problem is that a situation where both an economic downturn and inflation occur simultaneously could happen. Currently, Powell thinks that possibility is low and is trying to lower the interest rates. He believes that inflation will be controlled, but there is concern that the economy is deteriorating faster than expected, leading to a situation where it may become uncontrollable before fully grasping it. Therefore, he is considering an early rate cut. The economy is already heading in a negative direction. In this situation, if stagflation occurs, what kind of situation will it be? In that case, the result would be a financial crisis. Just because Lehman Brothers bank collapsed, it didn't mean a financial crisis came. You should also consider the Asian economic crisis at that time, such as which bank collapsed in the US. The problem is in South Korea.

But when interest rates go up, stocks go up, real estate goes up, hallelujah, and so on. At that time, even now, the economy is already very bad. If you look at it now, what do you think? The housing prices have skyrocketed, almost hitting a record high in the first half of the year. And now, in the first half, it's hitting another all-time high. People are saying the real estate market is doing well, hallelujah, but new businesses are not opening, they are all closing down. Are people starting new businesses? But now, it's just real estate. They are pouring all the funds here to revive the real estate market, so self-employed people are suffering. Self-employed people have decreased by 30,000 just last year. Self-employment is failing, and for companies, it's even worse. Small and medium-sized enterprises are in a state of emergency, and only in the first half of this year, a thousand bankruptcies have occurred. And credit ratings are being downgraded. There are only three going up and 15 going down. That's why the ratio of up and down is...

It was caught at 0.2 times, even during Corona, it was 0.5 times, but now it's 0.2 times. The situation is getting more serious now. Financially, the signs are already coming out in the United States. They are saying that they are tightening now, but they cannot reduce spending in the United States. So, even though interest costs continue to rise, by maintaining high interest rates and controlling inflation, the unemployment rate is rapidly increasing. Trying to offset the increasing unemployment rate by lowering interest rates, but producer prices are also rapidly soaring. So, due to the huge liquidity released and the interest costs in the United States, it will come out, but as liquidity is rapidly released and then significantly tightened, problems arise, and interest rates explode every time. If you think about this since the 2000s, the answer is clear. In the United States, already.

Signs of the early stages of a financial crisis are emerging. Unlike other countries that collapsed more during the financial crisis, the U.S. managed to withstand it to some extent. However, even the U.S. is now showing cracks. In this situation, buying risky assets like cryptocurrencies, lowering or raising interest rates, and investing in assets such as stocks and real estate may seem profitable. But think about how it will end up as you enter into this kind of situation. I will stop here for now.

역대급 금융위기 - 진짜로 터지네요

팩트에 기반한 분석으로
국·내외 부동산과 경제시장을 조명하는 라이트하우스 입니다.
부동산·경제에 대한 모든 정보와 현황을 가감없이 전달해드리겠습니다.

멤버십 가입 : https://www.youtube.com/user/hsdjang8/join
후원 : 신한 110-341-158444 (라이트하우스)
비즈니스 문의 : lighthouse_01@naver.com

유튜브 https://www.youtube.com/@Lighthouse-JK
카   페 https://cafe.naver.com/lighthouse12

