Druckenmiller's Insights on Nvidia, Fed, and Market Predictions

Druckenmiller warns that the Federal Reserve's missteps could lead to inflation and a hard landing for the economy.

### Insights from Market Guru Druckenmiller: Reflections on Nvidia, the Fed, and Election Dynamics
* 🧠 Druckenmiller, known for his rare interviews, shared deep insights into his investment strategies and market outlook, particularly regarding Nvidia, which he sold too soon, admitting it was a **"huge mistake"** as the stock surged from **$800 to over $1,300**.
* 📈 He emphasized his belief in the **long-term potential of AI infrastructure**, indicating that investments related to **power supply for AI data centers** are promising despite his regret over selling Nvidia shares.
* 🏦 Critically assessing the Federal Reserve, Druckenmiller argued that their recent decision to **lower interest rates was misguided**, as the stock market and gold prices are at **all-time highs**, suggesting **no real restrictions on the economy**.
* 📊 He noted that if inflation rises again due to the Fed's miscalculations, it could **threaten the market's independence**, leading to potential **tightening of monetary policy**.
* 🗳 On the political front, he expressed skepticism about polls, suggesting that market indicators point towards a **likely Trump victory**, which could result in a **more business-friendly environment** and **potential deregulation**.
* 💰 Druckenmiller maintains a short position in bonds, believing that the **potential gains from inflation accelerating** outweigh the risks, and he anticipates that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury should be around **5.5%**.
* 📉 Despite his critical view of the Fed, a recent survey showed economists rated Jerome Powell favorably, predicting **stable unemployment and GDP growth around 2%**, indicating a **mixed outlook for the economy**.
* ⚡ He concluded by highlighting the intersection of **AI and power supply**, suggesting that **significant advancements akin to Nvidia's rise** could emerge from this combination, urging viewers to **stay informed and engaged**.

Today, I have brought an interview with Druckenmiller, who rarely appears for interviews. Since he is not someone who frequently participates in interviews, we will be able to gain deep insights into the thoughts of Druckenmiller, who is known as a market guru. 

First, the part I found most interesting was Druckenmiller's self-reflection. It is already known that Druckenmiller bought a lot of Nvidia stock and recently sold a significant amount. The host asked him a question: In the past, you mentioned that you would hold Nvidia for several years, but recently you have sold a lot. How much do you still hold, and why are you selling? To this, Druckenmiller replied, I have made many mistakes in my investments, and one of them was selling all of my Nvidia shares.

The news about selling came up for the first time in this interview. They mentioned that it was a huge mistake to sell everything. When they sold, the price was between $800 and $950, and in the past, during an interview, the stock was around $300. They had said back then that they would hold onto it for several years, but they also admitted that they are not Warren Buffett, implying that they are not someone who holds stocks for a very long time. However, within a year, the stock tripled, and they thought the valuation was high. Now, the stock is over $1,300 per share, so it was indeed a mistake. Nonetheless, they believe in the long-term potential of AI, particularly in the infrastructure aspect that supports AI, meaning that stocks related to power supply for AI data centers are good. There is a way to play in AI from an infrastructure perspective. Regardless, NVIDIA is a great company, and the stock price has...

If it drops, it will go back up again, but right now, I was hurt by hastily selling. This is what I'm saying regarding the Federal Reserve. They made a mistake with the 50 basis points. Currently, the Fed is lowering interest rates under the logic that rates are restrictive. However, I do not believe in the theoretical concepts that some scholars talk about; I believe in the market and market indicators. But look at the market: the stock market is at an all-time high, gold is at an all-time high, GDP is exceeding trends, and the outlook for bank earnings is good. There are no perceived restrictions. As for cryptocurrencies, this is about the Fed looking at guidance rather than data. If the Fed is wrong and inflation rises again, this will be a nightmare for the independence of the market and the Fed. If monetary policy is not actually restrictive and expansion is ongoing, then perhaps the Fed will tighten again.

They are talking about Trump and Harris again. As I mentioned yesterday, Trump commented on the Federal Reserve, saying that the Fed officials are idiots. He claimed they decide interest rates by flipping a coin once a month and are called 'gods.' So the host asks, If Trump becomes president, won't the independence of the Federal Reserve be severely compromised? In response, trucking Miller says that the problem is not Trump; rather, the Fed is collapsing due to its own mistakes. The Fed is fixated on soft landing and fine-tuning, but its original purpose was to focus on avoiding large-scale financial crises. It is not there to make minor adjustments. They need to stop fine-tuning and look at the bigger picture. If they continue like this, inflation could rise, and ultimately, there will be no soft landing.

It could be a hard landing. That's the response I get. Regarding the election dynamics, honestly, if you asked me ten days ago, I would have said I don't know who would win. But now, Trump is someone who doesn't believe in polls and trusts market indicators. If you look at the market indicators, Trump's victory seems to be in sight. I don't trust polls that have declining response rates; I only look at market indicators. Back in the 1980s, almost all experts predicted Reagan would lose, but the market indicators at the time predicted a Reagan victory, which turned out to be correct. Currently, bank stocks and cryptocurrency prices are rising, and looking at Trump's stocks, they are also going up. This suggests that at this point, the market sees a Trump victory as likely. Since the presidential and congressional elections are happening simultaneously, various possibilities arise, but I believe the Democrats are all mixed up, and I see blue states as having the lowest probability of success.

If Harris wins the presidential election, it seems likely that the Senate will still be held by the Republicans. There is also a possibility that the Republicans could win both the presidential election and the Senate, which is something I am monitoring closely. If there is a blue wave, the market could face significant challenges, and the impact on the economy would be considerable. However, a red wave could lead to deregulation and a more business-friendly environment, which might strengthen the economy relatively. That said, concerns about inflation will likely force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more hawkish stance, so I am somewhat worried about bonds. I also have some concerns about the downward trend in the stock market. 

Regarding bonds, on the very day the Fed raised rates by 50 basis points, I took a short position in bonds, and I am still maintaining that position. In the short term, I cannot predict where things will go, but if...

If the Fed is wrong and inflation accelerates, I could make hundreds of basis points. However, conversely, even if the Fed is right, I would only lose a few tens of basis points. This means that when shorting bonds, the potential gains are large while the potential losses are small. This is a much more favorable bet on the short side, which is the outlook of Druckenmiller. So, honestly, I think that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury should be trading around 5.5% given the current GDP situation. This is what Druckenmiller says. Now, let's take a look at the stock market situation today. Overall, we saw a rebound rally, and the Russell index rose significantly. As I mentioned yesterday, the market still argues that a rate cut creates a favorable environment for small-cap stocks. I can mention this point, and today the monthly Economist survey results were released, which I will share as well.

If Miller is delivering somewhat negative news, economists are providing a more positive outlook. Although Drunken Miller has harshly evaluated the Federal Reserve, a survey conducted a month ago showed that economists gave Jerome Powell an impressive grade of 45.1%. This can be seen as a generous assessment. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steadily around 4.2% in the long term, with no sharp increase in unemployment anticipated. While there may be fluctuations in GDP in the short term, it is projected to stabilize at around 2% in the long term. Inflation is also expected to stabilize at around 2%. Therefore, if inflation and GDP growth are consistently around 2%, it can be viewed as quite balanced. Let's also consider the changes that Trump and health policies may bring, depending on who is elected. An overwhelming assessment indicates that if Trump is elected, inflation will rise, with a rating of 66.

The Economist's evaluation indicates that if Trump becomes president, interest rates will likely rise. This can be seen as a related question, essentially the same question: who will create a larger budget deficit? The answer from economists is also Trump. Which candidate is more favorable for growth? They responded that Harris is more favorable. If Trump's tariff policy is implemented, how will employment be affected? It will decrease, according to 59.1% of economists. In short, from the perspective of economists, Harris is viewed as better. This can be seen from the economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. I want to reiterate that these are not my opinions; one is the opinion of Druckenmiller, and the other is the result of a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal involving 66 economists. I hope there is no misunderstanding. Looking at the differences in the economic field, in terms of budget deficits, they are similar, but Druckenmiller's view is that the Republican Party...

When it was done, Yong-jae said it was better, but many economists from 1966 are divided on the opinion that the economy is better when the Democratic Party is in power. Many big tech companies are heading towards nuclear power. Today, Amazon is also moving towards nuclear power; they are investing in power supply for AWS. The amount itself wasn't large, but ultimately, as I mentioned at the beginning, the implications shown by Drunken Miller suggest that something as massive as NVIDIA will emerge from the combination of AI and power. I hope you keep this in mind. The judgment is yours. This concludes the Brand View video we prepared today, and please also support us with subscriptions and likes for Wall Street Weekly. Thank you.

[홍장원의 불앤베어] 연준이 금리내린날, 나는 채권에 숏베팅했다. 드러켄밀러가 보는 제2의 엔비디아는

월가에서 월급받는 부자되는 비법을 전수합니다!

매경 월가월부

Druckenmiller, known for his rare interviews, reflected on his investment mistakes, particularly his decision to sell all of his Nvidia shares.

He admitted that selling at $800 to $950 was a huge mistake, especially since the stock has now risen to over $1,300 per share.

Despite the misstep, Druckenmiller remains optimistic about the long-term potential of AI, particularly in infrastructure-related stocks for AI data centers.

Critique of the Federal Reserve's Actions

The speaker expresses frustration with the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates and believes they made a mistake with the 50 basis points.

Despite the Fed's logic, market indicators show no perceived restrictions, with the stock market and gold at all-time highs.

The speaker warns that if the Fed's approach leads to rising inflation, it could compromise the independence of the market and the Fed itself.

Market indicators are suggesting a likely victory for Trump, with rising bank stocks and cryptocurrency prices.

The simultaneous presidential and congressional elections create various possibilities, but the Democrats appear to be struggling.

A red wave could lead to deregulation and a stronger economy, while concerns about inflation may push the Federal Reserve towards a more hawkish stance, raising worries about bonds and the stock market's downward trend.

Shorting bonds offers the potential for large gains if inflation accelerates, while the potential losses are minimal.

The stock market is experiencing a rebound, with economists providing a more positive outlook despite Druckenmiller's negative assessment of the Federal Reserve.

Economic Impact of Trump's Presidency vs.

Economists predict that if Trump becomes president, interest rates and budget deficits will rise, while Harris is viewed as more favorable for growth.

Trump's tariff policy is expected to decrease employment, according to 59.

The economic opinions are divided, with some economists believing the Democratic Party's power is better for the economy, while big tech companies, including Amazon, are moving towards nuclear power, potentially leading to significant advancements in AI and power supply.