German Election 2024 Prediction: CDU/CSU Projected to Win, Coalition Possibilities Explored

Germany's upcoming election features a complex voting system, resulting in unpredictable coalition possibilities.

### German Federal Election Prediction: A Conservative Resurgence?
* 🗺️ The video analyzes the upcoming German federal election, focusing on the changes in the electoral system and their impact on party projections.
* 🇩🇪  The old system (2021) allocated seats proportionally based on national and constituency votes, leading to discrepancies and varying seat counts (e.g., 736).
* 🔄 The new system introduces a cap of 650 seats and adjusts seat allocation if a party's constituency wins exceed its national vote share.
* 📈 The **CDU/CSU** is projected to significantly increase its share, winning most constituencies but forfeiting some due to the new system's cap.  They are described as a "somewhat religious party...more extreme on the religion issue than any other party".
* 📉 The **SPD**, while doing well in some areas, is projected to lose significantly under the new system, securing only 14% of the vote.
* 🟢 The **Greens** and **FDP** are also expected to have reduced representation, highlighting the impact of the new system on smaller parties.
* ⬆️ The **AfD**, a more populist and secular party, is predicted to gain significant seats, particularly in East Germany, due to its regional appeal.
* 🗳️ The video concludes with a prediction of a potential **CDU/CSU** led coalition government, potentially with the **SPD** or **Greens**, but notes the possibility of unexpected alliances depending on the final seat distribution.  The author states that if the AfD isn't running a candidate in your constituency, vote CDU.  If they are running, especially in East Germany, vote AfD.

Let me tell you a story. Long, long ago, I was a naive freshman heading into high school. Possibilities were endless. I

could do so much. I could learn so many new things. And as a freshman, they gave us two decisions: if we took advanced

math or not, and what language we took. Now, I seriously contemplated this. Chinese and Spanish out the window – definitely not Chinese. I took that for a

year, almost wanted to shoot myself. So those two were gone. And French, while it seemed fun, you know, French people are

staying on this Earth, so I figured that it, in reality, it would come down to two languages: Latin and German.

Now, it was a toss-up. It was close for a while. I was leaning towards Latin, definitely, but the German teacher did

give an impassioned speech about why we should learn German.  "German is a massive country in the EU; there's a lot

of business in it; it's a very culturally rich area; and it's pretty much the center of Europe." It supplanted France...

Is that so? I decided I'm going to betray my intuition, which told me to take Latin because it's useful for everything

else. I'm gonna betray my intuition; I'm gonna take German. I'm going to take German as my language. Immediately that teacher

left. It was replaced with a new one. He was weird. He left next year. A new German teacher, and now I quit German, ran

the other way, abandoned it, got as far out of that place as possible. But I've been indoctrinated by the Germans for

three years – not not the way you're not the way you're thinking; different, different type of indoctrination – and I

have a great respect for the German culture. I, I love Germans. I think they're great, and I think there's a bunch of

great stuff about them. One of the best things about them is their politics. Uh, Germany has one of the most interesting

Political systems, uh, some of the most interesting parties. Um, very weird, very weird country. Um, basically, to summarize the system,

there's two versions: there's the old 2021 version and there's the new version that's going to be employed, likely

around February of next year. So that's right there; that's probably going to be the next major election we see in Canada.

The government might collapse, though. It looks like Trudeau's standing firm, so probably Germany will hold the next

election after their cabinet completely collapsed. Uh, so that's going to be late February. So this is the old system. What

happens is you have a bunch of these constituencies. People vote for a party; whoever gets the most votes wins them.

But then what happens is you also vote for a party nationally. So there's only so many constituencies—about 300—and

in the entire—it's like the U.S. House—but in the entire thing, there's about 700 seats. It fluctuates; insane

system. But what happens is then you vote nationally, or in—in your pro—it's basically nationally. They add up all the

uh, party votes, because these are for candidates, these are for parties. They add them up; they allocate them equally.

Now, the problem is sometimes, you know, let's assume the CDU—they have a real—or the SPD have a really good night, which

they're not going to—and they win every constituency by one vote and they get like 25% of the popular

vote, because so many parties—they have a bunch of constituencies—but that's not representative of 20% of the vote. So

what happens is here they only get 20% of the vote; the other parties get 80%.

They bump up the number of seats in the chamber in total so that it's proportional. So what happens

You get very weird seat counts, like 736. Now the new system is different; you have those same single-member constituencies

and you have the national party. But if a party is over-represented in this, um, system to the point where they're winning

more seats than their national vote share even commands, then they forfeit the closest seats. It's capped at 650 now.

This map is different, uh, and if I were to do that, then I would have to go in to

hear, uh, I'd have to edit this; I'd have to change the values for all these things, and you

know that really that preciseness doesn't seem necessary. So what we're going to do is mainly just show what the party's stand on

where they're going to do good here. Um, I'm not going to fill out all the list seats, but I will say we have a model here, uh,

from Irish Patriot, different, uh, than the last guy, Charlestin—I still don't know his name. Both of them are great; it's just Irish

Patriot doesn't follow me back, so I'm I'm very I'm very sad about that.

Um, but still, this is a great map. Um, he's he's he's a much, much smarter person

than I. So, basically, this is around where you would expect the parties to do well, uh, so it is a pretty big change, uh,

from 2021. You can see the ruling SPD; while they did great in East Germany, at least the northern area, and they did

okay in some of the, uh, more urban areas in, uh, West Germany, they're completely locked out now. They do get a few, uh,

overall seats from this, uh, list seat system, because they are getting a somewhat significant, uh, 14% of the

vote. Still not great, so they do fine for themselves; um, just they're winning the seats they're winning narrowly.

Um, but it's definitely not as big as this, and it's not enough to get really anywhere close to forming a governing

majority. We'll get to that. Then we also got the CDU/CSU. Now, the—it's the

CDU; it's the main one. The CSU is just Bavaria. Politics are weird, so basically they act as one party. Um, I

don't think they contest any of the seats like the CDU doesn't contest Bavaria, and the CSU doesn't uh contest

anywhere else. Now, while the SPD is a liberal party, um, that's more secular, the uh—I think it's Christian Democratic

Union. I did not pronounce that right once again; not that great at German, but I think translated to English it's the

Christian Democratic Union. Um, what it is is it's a somewhat religious party, um, actually more extreme on the religion

issue than any other party, that's including the AfD. So most of their uh moral policies are based in religion.

They are also somewhat conservative, though they're not like—they're not um what you would call far-right; they're not really that

populist. They're more establishmentarian. Uh, it's kind of like if Mitt Romney, maybe a little bit better

on the issues, Mitt Romney walked around in Congress just thumping his Bible all the time. That's basically the CDU and

CSU. So they're projected to increase their share a lot, and that's where the system comes into play. They win 236

districts, but they have to forfeit seven of them because they're over the overall percentage. It's—it's basically just you

you vote nationally and you get that percent of seats, except you do have the opportunity for local representation.

It's a stupid system, I know. I'm not Chancellor. I—I would—I would make Germany so much better if I were

The Chancellor is basically saying that all of that extra red, and we'll get to the green as well, all of it just snapped into oblivion; it's gone. They win all these seats,

and while they don't win them with, like, 80% of the vote, which would enable them to get a commanding majority, they

still do get 31% of the vote, so they get a big amount of the seats. Then we got

the Greens. The Greens suffer the most in this. The Greens, they win some constituencies sometimes, like they're

they're a major party; they're not like the US Greens. They're not even like some of the Greens in Canada, which win two

seats and they're like, 'Yay, we won! We won two seats!' They're not like that. They're

actually a serious party. They're further to the left than the SPD, more secular. The list system does kind of

enable them, and the SPD—I mean, they're pretty far left by US standards, but they're not as far left

as the Greens. So they kind of get to exist. Then, uh, so this is where my knowledge kind of blanks. The FDP,

I think—correct me if I'm wrong—they're another pretty left-wing party. They don't really win any of the

regional constituencies, but the list system does help them out. Now we get to the AfD. Now, the AfD was fifth

in Germany in 2021. They comprised some of the seats, and they definitely won more single

constituency seats than the fourth and even, I think, the Greens, but they didn't get that big of a percent of the

vote. Why? Because they're mostly confined to East Germany. The AfD is a more populist, more secular version of the CDU.

Slightly more, uh, right-wing on the issues, uh, they still aren't like far, far right. Uh, their leader is a lesbian, all...

The people calling them Nazis, like, I'm sorry, was Hitler really... I can't say that on

YouTube. Was Hitler really...harassing...? Um, just ponder that. So the AfD really isn't that far right; they just are more

right-wing, and because they're more secular, they do much better in the more secular East German area. It's just there

have been some allegations of Nazi ties. I believe that they're 100% fake. This is my personal favorite party, and if you're

in Germany, obviously, if the F...if the AfD isn't running a candidate in your constituency,

vote CDU, uh, if you agree with me on the issues. But if the AfD is running, especially if you live in Eastern

Germany, I'd say vote AfD. Um, the AfD is pretty good on most of the issues, uh, and

they stand up for their constituents, but they do distinguish themselves well from the Christian Democratic party, uh, by being more secular, more populist; you might call them Trumpian,

um, not completely Trumpian, but still somewhat that way. And they usually...I forget what this province is

called. Let me actually...this is...this is how you...I think it's Saxony. I got

it confused with Saarland, which is over here. Um, they usually do good in Saxony and then Thuringia, uh, but otherwise they're kind of

just a regional party. They do do good in the list seats, but here they're really...they're just taking over all of Eastern

Germany, because that is the split. Western Germany is more establishmentarian, you could say, uh, it's also much more

Christian, so the CDU appeals there, and the AfD appeals more to the atheist East...suffered harshly under...

communism. You get it, so they're doing good in Mecklenburg, uh, Brandenburg. Which Mecklenburg is interesting because that's a

county of North Carolina. Brandenburg and even Berlin, they're not quite getting too much in Berlin. That's kind of the

only place where the Greens exist, and there are CDU, CSU, and you can see once again, like a lot of Eastern European

states, it is split among the Cold War borders. You see West Berlin is much more CDU, well the East is more open to the

AfD. So Die Linke—sorry, I pronounced that like a Dinka—are also another left-wing party. Like, they're not as green as the Greens,

just kind of like left-wing. Uh, a lot of this is just like my parents voted for Die Linke, so

I'm a Linke voter. So a lot of them are just more leftist parties, and SSW—please don't ask, I don't

I don't know who the hell they are. I assume there's just one guy who's uh, SS

voters. So that that sounds—that sounds like an actual Nazi, the SS voters' association. I assume it's just some

random guy. Um, but the election's probably going to end up looking something like this: uh, the CDU will...

This is rough because I am not going to fill out every constituency. I did it with Canada because there was actually

German Federal Election Prediction - Conservative RESURGANCE!

TesterIsDone

Personal Anecdote and Introduction to German Politics

The speaker recounts their high school experience choosing between Latin and German.

They describe the decision-making process involving advanced math and language selection.

They eliminated Chinese and Spanish, eventually choosing German based on a teacher's persuasive argument.

The speaker expresses interest in the complexities of the German political system.

They mention the existence of two versions of the German electoral system: the old (2021) and the new (to be implemented around February).

Explanation of the Old and New German Electoral Systems

Description of the old system involving constituency votes and national party votes, leading to disproportionate seat allocation.

Explanation of how the old system adjusted seat counts to ensure proportionality, sometimes resulting in unusually high numbers of seats.

Description of the new system, which includes a cap of 650 seats and a mechanism to address over-representation of parties.

Parties forfeiting seats if their constituency wins exceed their national vote share.

German Election Prediction and Party Analysis

Analysis of the projected performance of various parties based on a model, showing significant shifts from 2021.

The ruling SPD's projected decline and limited seat gains.

Analysis of the CDU/CSU's projected increase and seat forfeits due to the new system.

Discussion of the Greens' performance and their position within the political spectrum.

Analysis of the AfD's regional concentration and projected gains, along with a discussion of their political ideology and allegations of Nazi ties.

Election Outcome Prediction and Coalition Scenarios

Prediction of a CDU/CSU sweep in most regions, with strong AfD performance in East Germany.

Discussion of the required seat number for a majority and the challenges in forming a governing coalition.

Analysis of potential coalition scenarios, including the possibility of CDU/CSU collaborating with SPD and potentially Greens or other smaller parties.

Discussion of potential outcomes if a majority isn't reached, including the possibility of CDU/CSU forming a coalition with AfD.

The speaker encourages viewers to subscribe to their channel.

Mention of upcoming elections in Canada, Wisconsin, France, and other countries.

Promotion of channel membership and its benefits.