Hello, this is Yoo Dong-won, the head of Global Asset Allocation at Yuanta Securities. Many investors are currently looking for various investment destinations amid the current global market situation. Our department is currently operating three series of global asset allocation funds using algorithms. The first Yoo Dong-won Global Asset Allocation Wrap pursues low volatility profit through diversified investments in various asset classes calculated by algorithms. The second Yoo Dong-won Global Home Run Wrap aims for active profit generation using a tactical asset allocation strategy focused on small assets. The third Yoo Dong-won Global Anta Wrap aims for low-volatility profit by utilizing a strategic asset allocation strategy that invests 50% in low-volatility assets such as bonds and gold, diversifying inherent risks in each asset class. For more information about our products, please.

For those who want to know more, please contact us through the methods below, and we will respond promptly. If you are looking for investment opportunities to cope effectively with the rapidly changing global financial markets, please contact our headquarters. Thank you. Hello, this is Yoo Dong-hoon. It's time for global investment stories. The U.S. stock market continues to show significant volatility. It surges and then plunges again, causing many people to feel anxious. Let's take a look at the headlines. Fear of a recession maximizes as the U.S. market continues to plummet. Let's delve into the details and come up with a strategy. We will focus on stocks like Microsoft and Meta Platforms. [MUSIC] The U.S. stock market is experiencing significant volatility, with a sharp decline occurring within a short period. It dropped by 4.9% based on the S&P 500 index.

Amid nearly creating three triple bottoms, the 20-day moving average is continuously being tested, causing volatility. The magnitude of this decline is actually less volatile than in March and April, which had three triple bottoms. Even though the decline is much lower, many people seem to be quite fearful. Due to the high volatility, investors are finding it more challenging this time. The reason is that the volatility of major growth indices is larger. When looking at the U.S. Nasdaq in April, there was a manipulation in the past, where there was a manipulation of almost 88% for a month, followed by a 22.7% increase over three months. Then, in a very short period, the decline itself dropped by 88.9%, leading to a further significant decline.

Furthermore, it dropped faster, then rose, dropped again, rose again, dropped once more, and rose again. This kind of fluctuation makes it quite challenging and confusing, as the volatility is becoming a hindrance. Not only worries about the index due to fear, but also concerns about individual stocks are emerging, leading to selling behaviors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which can be considered the most important index in the Korean stock market, has much stronger volatility. If you look from March to April, you can see that the period is quite long, about a month and a half. There was a decline for a longer period during this time, but since it moved slowly, it may not have been felt so keenly. However, after that, there was a sharp 38.3% increase, and within a very short period of less than three weeks, the low points gradually decreased compared to the high points.

It is currently experiencing a significant 19.1% decline, so as the semiconductor index is declining like this, it feels like it is difficult. Ultimately, I feel that we need to properly understand the reasons why there is such high volatility at the current moment. Why is the market experiencing such back-and-forth movements, like a seizure, dropping, surging, dropping, and surging again? This continuous market fluctuation is causing concerns that there may be some overall change in the trend. Where does this change in trend come from? Well, it is being said that interest rates will be lowered in the future. Therefore, the thought that there will be changes in interest rates is expanding the possibility of an economic downturn. This fear is dominating the market.

It is when certain indicators come out and create the possibility of an economic downturn, that much of a drop occurs. So, what numbers came out? The ISM Manufacturing Index came out at 46.8, lower than the expected 48.8. It dropped significantly. There has only been one instance when it rose above 50 from 2023 until now, continuously fluctuating up and down, remaining below 50. Therefore, this is creating concerns that a significant economic downturn may be coming. Comparing this to the financial crisis from 2000 to 2002, similar patterns are emerging. People are worried that if it was like that back then, it might happen again now. The same trend is also appearing in the Services PMI index. Waiting on the sidelines, it suddenly dropped below 50. This is how the representative indicators for both manufacturing and services are showing similar trends.

It is a fact that concerns about an economic downturn have been magnified as the employment indicators show a continuous increase in the number of unemployment benefit claimants, reaching around 249,000. Since this number is higher than expected, there are worries that the unemployment rate may increase significantly, signaling an economic downturn. Additionally, as labor costs rise, the wage growth rate is decreasing, which we all know will have a negative impact on GDP. If wage growth declines, consumption will not increase, but rather decrease. Concerns are now arising about cost increases, with a growth rate of 0.9% in the second quarter, only half of the originally expected 1.8%.

Fear of a recession has led to a rapid flow of funds into typical safe assets. This is mainly due to the significant drop in the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield, which quickly plummeted by 4%. Money is flowing rapidly into bonds, showing concerns about an economic downturn. As worries about a recession intensify, interest in gold, one of our safe assets, increases. Gold prices surged by 1.6% recently and the overall trend is upward. Therefore, the key question now is whether an economic recession is imminent. If a recession does occur, will this volatility lead to a prolonged period of decline in the future? These concerns are strongly stimulating.

Let me share with you the results of our analysis. We see no change in the visual aspect at all. We predict that there will be no economic downturn for the next two years. Now, let's take a closer look at the reasons. First of all, the manufacturing PMI index in the United States has been moving below 50 from 1995 to 1997, going up, down, up, and down again for a long period. This was also a time when the internet was rapidly becoming more active, leading to a significant increase in penetration rates of 10% to 20%. Therefore, what we are saying now is that it is possible for the manufacturing PMI index to remain low for a long time. It has been below 50 for the past year, but as I will show you shortly, the GDP growth rate in the United States is quite high. Additionally, there is an inversion in the long-term and short-term interest rates.

This phenomenon is happening right now. If the interest rate drops by 1.18%, it would help resolve the situation. However, currently, the long-term interest rate has dropped significantly to the 4% range. In my opinion, this indicates a further widening of the yield curve inversion. It will take time for the situation to recover, turn positive, and rise. Based on our assessment, it may not happen by the end of next year but rather by the end of the year after next. Even then, it may not be enough. Therefore, we believe that the gradual decrease in interest rates will continue. In this context, we do not expect a rapid economic downturn. Currently, in the private sector, there is a trend of continuously increasing loan growth rates. In the past, there were also significant fluctuations in loan growth rates.

The decline has occurred, and a continuous upward cycle is emerging. Similarly, although there may be fluctuations, the period of increase does not lead to a rapid economic downturn. As the growth rates of loans and deposits are entering a normalization process, we continue to emphasize that there will be no economic recession in this context. More importantly, we have repeatedly emphasized that it is crucial for productivity to increase with the advent of the AI cycle in the labor market. In terms of employment, the impact of productivity increasing compared to employment growth in the job market is much greater. It is an important point that the percentage is expanding from the 70s to possibly 80 or 90%. This time, the wage growth rate came out lower than expected, which is actually a positive thing. Productivity is much higher.

We are verifying that the entrance is happening, and in the past, we mentioned this part. Between 1995 and 2000, there was a significant increase in productivity, an annual 2.4%. Of course, there may be fluctuations, but looking at the current trend, there has been a sharp increase, with a growth rate of 2.9% in the first quarter and 2.7% in the 24th quarter. This is much higher than the average 2.4%, at over 2.7% growth. It will be a very important point. The previous quarter had really high growth, and the number compared to the previous quarter of the next quarter is also coming out at a significant 2.3% or higher. It's a very high number. The fact that much higher numbers than expected are continuing to follow suggests that the AI cycle is starting to have a significant impact on the U.S. economy. Therefore, even though the manufacturing PMI index came out so low earlier...

However, from the time it fell below 50 in the second quarter of 2023, the numbers have been 2.4, 2.9, 3.1, 2.9, 3.1, 2.6. Of course, it is low compared to very high numbers, but it is still 2.6. It could still drop again compared to the numbers, right? Still, it's above 2.4%. So, it's a very high number. Looking at the numbers, it is clear that the increasing productivity is having a significant impact on GDP. I think it is correct to interpret this. Referring to the past, between 1995 and 2000, the internet cycle emerged. At that time, the increase in productivity and the compound annual growth rate of the Nasdaq showed a higher situation. If we view this part as the current AI cycle, we are seeing numbers like 2.8%, 2.7%, which are much higher than 2.4%. If we consider that Nasdaq has only increased by 21% annually, it could be a good investment.

I have a feeling that the opening may not happen. Of course, it can continue to be confusing. There may be enough volatility. However, in the past, from 1995 to 2000, there were 10% corrections from highs to lows every year, making it a great investment opportunity. By expecting that this may happen again this time, I hope you can withstand this volatility well. Now, let's take a closer look at two representative tech stocks, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, which are closely linked to the AI cycle. Hello, this is Kim Dong-kwan. Recently, with concerns about the global economy and the expansion of AI investments, coupled with worries about a pick-out related to AI, m7's first-half returns have been continuously returning. In this regard, what strategies do m7 companies have in recent performance?

I will check. Today, we will look at two companies. First, let's take a look at Microsoft and Meta. Both companies emphasize the early stages of the AI rally and state that they will continue to invest to secure market share. Before examining these two companies, let's look at the competitiveness of this M7 KEX. In the past 23 years, M7 has used $17 billion in capital expenditures, accounting for 18% of the entire S&P 500, which was only 5% ten years ago, showing a steep upward trend. Additionally, M7's R&D spending accounts for 40% within the S&P 500, and it is expected to increase even more this year. Therefore, we can see that it holds a very large share. Currently, in the second quarter of the calendar year, five out of the M7 companies have completed their earnings announcements, collectively contributing to the expansion of profitability in the AI ecosystem.

It is stated that the expansion of AI-related factors should continue. However, specific revenue figures related to AI sales were not provided. Alphabet, Google, Meta, Microsoft, etc., briefly confirmed the single-digit revenue growth. The positive appearance shows that M7 Corporation's average RO for the period from 24 to 26 is 48.7%, showing a significant difference compared to the S&P 500's 22.9%. In the short term, due to the increase in profits from these factors, capital may increase, and expenses such as depreciation may also increase, leading to a possible decrease in ROE. However, in the long run, there are areas where production capacity expansion, operational efficiency improvement, new product development, revenue growth, and cost savings can lead to increased net income, which could further expand ROE. The characteristic of M7 related to AI is to strengthen by combining and enhancing hardware and software simultaneously. In the future, companies are expected to improve what kind of numerical and ecological.

We should pay attention to whether the merger will take place. Despite Microsoft's fourth-quarter earnings announcement, Azure's revenue disappointed, plummeting by 7% from the previous quarter. Looking at the performance, the revenue increased by 15% to $647.1 billion, and the EPS increased by 9.67% to $2.95, surpassing the consensus by 0.3%. By examining the business segments, all new business segments showed double-digit growth, raising their own guidance. However, the Intelligent Cloud division, which includes Azure, recorded $28.5 billion, showing the highest growth rate of 19%, but fell short of the consensus by 0.7%. Within this business segment, Azure and other cloud service revenues stopped at a 29% growth when including the consensus decline in European region growth, falling short of the consensus by 3.1%.

It depicted a declining appearance compared to the 31% growth rate in the third quarter. This part shows a negative appearance as opposed to the previous quarter's 28% growth rate of Alphabet's Google Cloud and this quarter's 29% growth rate. In the market, the slowdown of this company's growth rate provided a pretext for a sharp drop in stock prices, as attention is focused on the three-way competition of AI workloads among AWS, Google Cloud, and Azure. However, the company stated that the demand for AI-related services is continuously expanding, indicating that the company will continue to expand its investments. Looking at some examples related to this, the company's GitHub Copilot, currently the world's leading AI-based developer tool, is being used by over 77,000 organizations, showing a 180% expansion, and contributing to 40% of GitHub's revenue growth. Additionally, over 480,000 organizations are using Microsoft's Power Platform, an AI-based low-code tool.

Using it, there was a 45% growth compared to the previous year. Azure AI customers have expanded to over 60,000, increasing by more than yy%, and the average revenue per customer is also continuously growing. With a 19% increase in search and news ad revenue, growth compared to the previous year has expanded by 12%, and the growth potential of AI-integrated offerings is promising. In Azure's 29% growth sector, 88% points are related to AI service revenue, which has been continuously expanding compared to the previous quarter by 6% points and the quarter before by 7% points. It is stated that demand exceeding capacity continues, and it is expected that the high demand compared to capacity will continue in the second half of this year, showing a growth rate similar to this quarter. In this fourth quarter to catch up with demand, when looking at KFX, it is significantly expanding to $19 billion, increasing by 78% qoq and 36% Pro, and it is suggested that KFX will expand in the fiscal year 25 compared to 24, showing a growth of over 50%.

It was announced that they are preparing for the future increase in AI demand by allocating long-term assets related expenses that will be monetized over the next 15 years, similar to Alphabet. Although specific figures for ROI on AI infrastructure spending were not provided, they believe that excessive construction of AI capabilities can lead to steep increases in cost-effectiveness and profitability as AI is utilized across the entire cloud domain. They anticipate entering the AI market as an early stage, despite the pressure to achieve double-digit growth even in the fiscal year 2025. They forecast a sustained double-digit growth rate in revenue and operating profit for 15 years, projecting a 15.7% growth compared to the previous year. Although the upcoming first quarter business segment revenue guidance may fall below market consensus, they expect to continue the double-digit growth. This is separate from the conservative guidance.

Cloud usage is expected to improve in the second half of the year, which is a factor that can sustain the expectation of surprise performance due to the expansion of capacity and increased revenue. In a situation where much focus is placed on operating leverage, the previous quarter's guidance of a 1% point increase in operating profit margin from 25% is now expected to decrease by 1% point, which is expected to act as short-term downward pressure. Looking at the current stock price-earnings ratio of 31 times, compared to the 5-year average of 29 times, it appears slightly overvalued. Next, let's take a look at the Meta platform, which is strengthening its competitiveness through the advertising market boom and AI investment. First, let's examine the company's performance. In the second quarter, revenue was $39.051 billion, a 22% increase, and EPS was $5.16, a 31.5% increase, surpassing the consensus by 1.9% and 9.2%, respectively.

I presented that the operating profit margin also expanded by 38% yy 8.7% points, exceeding the consensus. In particular, the significant increase in EPS was due to cost management and lower corporate tax rates. In terms of the Family of Apps revenue, it increased by 22.1%, showing a very positive trend compared to the competition platform YouTube, which fell short of the consensus with a growth rate of 13%. The revenue of Relity Labs increased by 27.9% to 350 million dollars, falling short of the consensus by nearly 6%. However, the demand for Raven Meta sunglasses is surging, and sales for Quest 3 are increasing not only for gaming but also for everyday use, maintaining and generating expectations. Meta Platforms, looking at the number of active users and average revenue per user (ARPU) for this quarter, has an ARPU of $11.89, up by 42.9%.

With a significant increase, exceeding the consensus by 29%, profitability concerns were alleviated, and the number of active users was portrayed to increase by 32.7%, a 6.55% rise. Moreover, the company cleanly addressed concerns related to AI 2JA and provided figures that resolved worries about a peak-out. The upcoming third-quarter revenue guidance is expected to surpass the consensus midpoint range of $3.85 billion to $4.1 billion, showing a growth rate that is forecasted to decrease by around 20%. The global advertising market for the third quarter is expected to be competitive. The total cost scale for the year 2024 is estimated to be between $96 billion and $99 billion, maintaining the same level as the previous quarter, while Reality Labs forecasts an increase in operating profit size due to ongoing product development expenditures to strengthen the company's ecosystem. Detailed guidance for the fiscal year 2025 will be provided until the upcoming fourth quarter.

Although not provided, it was stated that infrastructure costs would be a significant factor in next year's expenses. In the fiscal year 24, the budget was set at 37 billion to 40 billion dollars, which was an increase from the previous figure of 35 to 40 billion dollars, as adjustments were made for AI research and product development, anticipating a significant expansion in 25. This announcement effectively alleviated concerns in the market about the AI Capex peak-out. It was announced that Fax investments would continue to expand in the coming years, with development for the launch of Lama 4 in the fiscal year 25. Due to the tenfold increase in resources compared to existing models, Lama 4 is essential for starting a new inference project. It was stated that due to the long lead time for this, the company would not risk investing too late. Similar to Alphabet, discussions were held on monetizing AI.

Although not providing precise figures related, it was forecasted that by incorporating AI into the advertising sector, the efficiency of ad creation and targeted advertising would increase. With the rise of AI services like AI capture and AI Studio, it is expected that user engagement will increase, contributing to profitability. Currently, in terms of its business strategy, it is considered necessary to establish its own data center. It was also mentioned that they are closely collaborating with AWS, Azure, and Google Cloud, which are assisting in product and service offerings. Similar to Microsoft, this company is also slightly overvalued compared to its historical P/E ratio by about 21 times, as opposed to the 5-year average of 19 times. Many people are finding it challenging; the volatility is quite remarkable. It's been a long time since we've seen such fluctuations. Consequently, many are fearful and unsure about how to invest.

Struggling, please continue to look closely at the items with us, look closely at the industries, and look at the macros. We sincerely hope that you will navigate well. Thank you for watching for a long time.

경기침체 두려움 극대화, 미증시 급락 지속! (MSFT, META)

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2019~현재) 유안타증권 글로벌자산배분본부 본부장/상무
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1998~2000) CLSA 애널리스트 부장
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1993) 펜실베이니아대학 와튼스쿨 경영/재무/경제 학사 


경기침체 두려움 극대화, 미증시 급락 지속! (MSFT, META)

경기침체 두려움 극대화, 미증시 급락 지속! (MSFT, META)

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