With the Yes Ears tinting film, spend a cool summer in your car. Today, as announced, we will plan a strategy with a famous analyst from Mirae Asset Securities. Please welcome him. Hello, it's been a while. Nice to meet you. You seem to be getting sharper. Yes, it seems like the trend among young people these days to become so slim. It's a bit worrying. It won't go that far, right? Yes, it's getting a bit slimmer. I understand. My account has also slimmed down a lot. I need to bulk up a bit now. So, the important thing here is the performance, right? Could you explain a bit about earnings today? Yes, that's correct. The report is titled Earnings Almighty - Earnings Do Everything. It seems to have a significant meaning. Could you please explain a bit more about it?

In an old movie, there is a movie titled Bruce Almighty, starring Jim Carrey. My friend, who works with me, didn't know it well. So, we decided to use this movie title for something. There is already a generation gap. But, I didn't know what Anings Almighty meant. It felt somewhat like that. The cover illustration was drawn by Cha Beatty. I wanted to use Bruce Almighty directly, but I couldn't due to copyright issues. So, I asked Cha Beatty to draw it a bit differently. She is really good at writing. Yes, that's right. So, what kind of insights are you looking for? This is a report on the outlook for the second half of the year. Looking back on the first half of the year, it was all about the performance. Well, the common denominator for the stocks that performed well was simply their performance.

We did not provide more evaluation, and there was no macro environment change like interest rate cuts. In the end, the performance of companies that performed well in the first quarter was very good. I concluded that such trends are unlikely to change significantly in the second half, so I came up with a title like this: Companies with Good Performance Are Leading. I probably appeared on the show about two months ago on April 3rd, where I discussed reports on trusting companies with this theme. At that time, the atmosphere was focused on cosmetics and semiconductors. Therefore, I made comments in that direction. Even now, I believe the atmosphere is very positive, focusing on cosmetics and semiconductors. So, if I were to give a preview for the second half, it would be about semiconductors, cosmetics, and possibly the shipbuilding sector.

I've tried it, so my preferred industry hasn't changed much. Since the beginning of this year, I've been pushing it, and everyone seems to like it now, but I still see upside potential. Cosmetics and semiconductors have increased a lot. Among the many rising cosmetics and semiconductor companies, it's good to find ones that are still going up. Or is it more likely for those that have already risen a lot to go up further? Among those that haven't risen much yet, companies that are expected to perform well seem to be good for now. Yes, even if they have risen a lot, there is a reason behind it, so I'm not really worried. The reason why performance can only be the answer is that, first of all, when you look at the market as a whole, expectations are still high. That's the first reason. Expectations are high, so the overall expectation is that good performance will come out.

Companies that exceed expectations have no choice but to give them a premium. If they don't meet them, the stock price won't work. It's obvious, but as you can see in the chart I just showed, let's take a look at the operating profit of Korean companies in 2025. If you could show the chart, it would be great. In 2025, the consensus operating profit of Korean companies is 322 trillion won, as you can see at the end in yellow. However, if we exclude semiconductors, it comes to about 240 trillion won. In 2021, we recorded a record operating profit, including semiconductors, of about 220 trillion won. Comparing this, I don't see much possibility of exceeding the total operating profit of 2021 without semiconductors next year. So, I think it's unlikely. Therefore, 2021 is still unprecedented.

It was a boom back then, right? At that time, regardless of the sector, all companies had good performance. The total profit at that time was 224. Yes, yes, the expectations for this year are very high, especially when excluding the semiconductors, which are currently highly regarded. First of all, we believe that the estimates are overly optimistic. However, there were no adjustments to the 320 trillion won figure in the first and second quarters because the first quarter performance was not bad, so there weren't many adjustments. In fact, in 2025, adjustments for next year's profits are often made during the third quarter performance season. So, there aren't many adjustments for next year's performance in the first and second quarters. Therefore, the outlook for 2025 is still high. As I mentioned earlier, I believe that downward adjustments in performance are somewhat inevitable in the second half of the year.

So, performance is more important. On the contrary, now performance becomes more important. I have divided the points where this performance is being downwardly adjusted into two. The first is the point where companies' revenue is being downwardly adjusted, and the second is the reasons why the margins of these companies can only be downwardly adjusted. I summarized a bit. The revenue has not exceeded analysts' estimates for about a year and a half. In the case of operating profit, there are times when it is good and times when it is not, but the revenue continues to announce results that do not exceed analysts' expectations. Therefore, it is very difficult for the revenue to be upwardly adjusted at the moment. Even if the revenue does not increase, if companies can maintain high margins, it is likely that good performance will be shown. However, the probability of that happening is very low.

When I was watching the broadcast, there were two important charts. The first one is the chart element on the bottom right that you are currently looking at. If you could zoom in on that, it would be great. Here, on the bottom right, if you look here, I drew the operating profit margin and inventory turnover ratio together. The inventory turnover ratio is calculated by dividing sales by inventory. So, if the turnover is fast, you can see that the business environment of the companies is very good. When you divide sales by inventory, you get the turnover rate. Therefore, the inventory turnover ratio moves along with the companies' margins. Usually, when the turnover rate decreases, the margin also decreases, and when the turnover rate increases, the margin also increases. It actually slightly leads. However, except for semiconductors, the inventory turnover ratio of companies has not improved at all since last year. If you pay attention to the tone, you can see that the operating profit margin of companies is...

Margins started to rise from the second quarter of last year. Up to this year's second quarter, I believe this cannot be interpreted positively. The turnover rate did not improve, but the margin went up. Companies need to temporarily reduce inventory because their products are not selling well, but they haven't reduced any at all. But how did profits increase? Shouldn't it be from sales? No, what I mean is, inventory turnover should increase along with sales. When products sell well, the turnover rate goes up accordingly. However, the fact that the turnover rate has not increased at all means that sales were not as good as expected. It's a situation where only the margins of companies have gone up. Normally, for performance to improve, products need to sell well, and of course, margins should improve too. Yes, yes, reducing inventory assets should have been done by companies while adjusting, but they haven't reduced any at all. That's why I

Basically, the inventory that has been piling up until now is expected to decrease. So, if you look at the chart, in fact, there is no need to worry about semiconductors. In situations where sales are increasing, it's okay for inventory to increase. It becomes a burden when sales stagnate and inventory increases. However, semiconductors are clearly one of the sectors where sales are increasing. Therefore, when analyzing this, we always need to exclude semiconductors. Anyway, excluding semiconductors, the inventory turnover ratio has not improved at all. As of the first quarter, if you look at the chart on the left, sales decreased by less than 1% in the first quarter when excluding semiconductors. However, the inventory increased by 4.5%. So, normally, it's better to sell more than what is produced, but in this case, it is being sold less than what is produced.

I think if you saw the gray blocked graphs briefly in front, the inventory assets should decrease gradually. In my opinion, this could lead to damage to companies' margins. Therefore, I believe that the profit momentum of companies in the overall market situation will inevitably weaken as we go into the second half of the year. Although there was a strong performance in the first quarter, mainly driven by semiconductors, the likelihood of such good performance in the second half is low. However, in this situation, companies with good performance will receive much more attention. That's right, they will receive attention. If I may share a breaking news, a 4.7 magnitude earthquake occurred in the area 4 km southwest of Buan-gun, Jeollabuk-do. This is the situation that the Korea Meteorological Administration has just revealed. Therefore, nationwide, especially in the Chungcheong, Jeollabuk, Gyeongsang

In some areas of Gangwon Province and Gyeonggi-do, some people are saying that they felt some movement in Songpa through reports. Many people nationwide seem to have felt tremors from the earthquake. Let me share one breaking news and then move on to the content. So, as we move into the second half of the year, there is a possibility that the performance may not be as good as expected, but rather lower than expected. Therefore, the focus is on companies that are likely to show better performance than expected or companies that are performing well. I have been emphasizing inventory. In the first quarter, our cosmetics, especially instant noodles, are selling much more than they are being produced. Therefore, it is a structure where good performance can only continue.

There are more than expected in this kind of sector, so it means that there are many industries or companies that are burdened with inventory assets. Therefore, I see a significant downward adjustment in performance as inevitable. However, in the short term, I don't think there will be much concern about the second-quarter performance right now. Rather than the second-quarter performance announced in August, I think there will be a bit more earnings in the third and fourth quarters seasonally. The second half of September is when the results for next year are announced, so around the end of September when the results are announced, the downward adjustment of profits will probably become more pronounced. So, with the major event of the U.S. presidential election in November, if we try to predict the overall market trend a bit, until mid-August, there isn't much to worry about.

I don't see it when I look at it, but as the earnings season for the second quarter ends, concerns about the third-quarter performance are starting to arise. Since it overlaps with the significant event of the U.S. presidential election, I think there could be some increased stock price volatility. So, in terms of timing, I'm thinking that if we look at this chart here, I've drawn the trajectory of the KOSPI. In the second half of the year, there are about four major events, and on the right side, I've predicted how much the KOSPI can rise or fall by creating a band. I feel a bit regretful, but I think reaching 3,000 points this year will be challenging. Personally, I believe that in order to reach 3,000 points, there shouldn't be any downward revisions in companies' performances. I consider downward adjustments to be somewhat essential. I couldn't really make a forecast up to 3,000, and

On the left, I have written about the trajectory I am now looking at. In late June, all macro indicators actually have an impact on interest rates, right? And what the market expects is, then, when interest rates will rise, whether performance will be good or not, and the expected rate of return that the market anticipates, which includes ERP. If you look at the table below on the right, you can see that. So, you should think of RF as the risk-free rate, which is basically the interest rate. And the expected rate of return that is in the market, which is ERP, you can see that. When you combine these, you get the cost of equity. So, the data that we discount in the primary market comes out. And on the right is the EPS growth rate, which means the direction of corporate performance. However, I am forecasting that the direction of corporate performance will decline. And our house is now expecting a downward stabilization trend in interest rates anyway.

We are currently looking for a similar situation to the market. I see similarities between 2014 and now. Some people who have been investing in stocks for a long time may think that the semiconductor sector is clearly leading, so they may think that the market is similar to 2016 or 2017. However, the indicators at that time were completely opposite. In fact, in 2014, there was a market trend that gave a lot of premium to performance. This is because even though the index did not rise significantly at that time, the performance of companies with very good earnings was very good. For example, at that time, companies like Hanssem, Com2uS, and Amorepacific had very good stock prices in 2014. This year, we can sufficiently respond to stocks of companies with good performance.

I think you're wondering whether or not to do that, so I've marked some boxes in the 2014 section. This was a story about the overall market trend. The more important story is, then, what kind of industry should we invest in. Please pay attention to number 1. I already mentioned the conclusion at the beginning, which is about semiconductors and cosmetics. Semiconductors and cosmetics are industries where the existing opinions are being maintained. We have added a new sector, the shipbuilding industry, this time. In terms of value-up, you can focus on the automobile and banking sectors. As for number 3, it may not be right now, but you can consider it a sector that is ready to turn around. So, let's take a closer look at each one. Let's start with semiconductors. If you could take a look at the chart.

I probably explained a bit before, but in the picture on the left, when the blue line goes up or the orange line goes up, that's when the performance comes in. But for companies with good performance, there are mainly two things. We look at this based on the average of analysts' expectations. But the thing is, the average is the collection of data from analysts at each securities firm. Even if there is an upward revision in performance, it's better for the distribution to widen like on the right side. So, it's better for the distribution to widen rather than gather. So, it's more meaningful when the most optimistic analyst revises it upwards. So, if you take a look at the right side, before the performance announcements of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, please take a look at the consensus distribution.

In the same case, red dots, as we know, the performance data you can see on platforms like Naver, has shown an increase in predictions. However, the distribution remains the same. The size, however, is expanding gradually for Hynix. Of course, Samsung Electronics' estimated data for 2025 is expanding. Hynix is also expanding, but in the short term, Hynix's profit momentum is good. This is a fact even when viewed in this distribution. Ah, so, one month ago, the forecast I made and the current forecast are almost the same, now in orange and blue, that's correct. But now, it's increasing more than one month ago, so gradually, ah, no, we need to change it quickly to a better direction, as many people who have decided to do so, it spreads and goes up like this. So, the most optimistic analyst sees it even more optimistically, which is meaningful.

It's there, but Hynix is showing that appearance right now in terms of its 25-year performance, when the timing for the stock price to reflect the performance of 2025 comes, Samsung Electronics could also receive enough attention. Because in 2024, such a distribution did not increase, but in 2025, analysts' opinions have broadened. Therefore, from a long-term perspective, we can evaluate it as a good form. However, in the short term, Hynix is currently considered almost the best case. From that perspective, semiconductors are meaningful in various ways. In the U.S., starting from the first quarter performance, momentum is gradually spreading to other sectors or companies that can now be called big tech companies. In Korea, the profit growth rate of semiconductors is

Profit momentum is likely to continue a bit throughout this year, so we recommend maintaining exposure to sectors like semiconductors. Yes, semiconductors are followed by cosmetics. Cosmetics have similar chart elements, but we believe they have more potential to grow. It is one of the representative sectors we are considering. Yes, yes. I mentioned earlier that in today's broadcast, two charts are most important. The first one is the inventory turnover ratio and the direction of operating profit margin. There are charts showing differences in these aspects. Also, I have prepared the inventory turnover ratio by industry. From this perspective, I will explain later why cosmetics are very attractive. I think shipbuilding is also becoming somewhat trustworthy. So, in the upper right corner.

When you look at it, the shipbuilding industry is a major industry in Korea, so you might think that stock prices are highly correlated with the amount of shipbuilding contracts. However, when you actually draw the chart, it turns out that the profitability of shipbuilding stocks is not as correlated as you might think. They continued to operate at a loss, but in the third quarter of last year, they finally turned a profit for the first time. And in the first quarter of this year, there was an earnings surprise in the shipbuilding sector. So, we might have some confidence in their performance. Therefore, we have added the shipbuilding sector to our outlook for the second half of this year. So, I believe that shipbuilding is an industry worth paying attention to in the second half. Similarly, the food and power equipment sectors are not suitable for pushing as sectors anymore. In the case of food, if you look at the companies now, companies with a high proportion of exports have overwhelmingly good profit momentum. So, is it a company with core products that are exported?

Isn't that important now? Yes, that's why I commented that it's advantageous to respond by individual stocks rather than looking at the entire industry. Oh, it matches with companies that have and don't have products like Buldak noodles. So pushing it as a sector is a bit... it's better to classify it by industry. Yes, within machinery, of course, not as a power equipment sector, but classified as a machinery sector. Yes, that's right. Yes, now within machinery, not only power equipment but profit momentum is coming out very well. Pushing this as a sector... a little... yes, it's like that. Also, here, as you mentioned, exports... exports, maybe for example, there could be exports to Europe, exports towards the U.S., or exports towards China, etc., right? Among those, are there any companies that can receive more premium? For a company where about 60% of exports go to the U.S., would they receive more premium, is there something like that? Or

Right now, the U.S. is good, the U.S. is good, overwhelmingly good. As the overall export data showing improvement in the U.S. is not clearly visible on the Chinese side, companies with a high exposure to the U.S. are much more advantageous at the moment. And regarding value-up, briefly speaking, the bottom part is crucial. Value-up, in fact, may not seem very attractive for individual investors in terms of approaching it, as the stock price volatility is not very high. It is better to continue increasing the proportion. This is also the same as what we showed on a chart two months ago. So, we keep mentioning banks and automotive sectors. The reason I intentionally skipped through the beginning part quickly is because the page is.

The most important thing is the second most important thing. Now, among the things I'm talking about, I said that two charts are important. Charts are now the most important. What is it? This is a bit complicated. Look at the second line. Now, if you look at cosmetics here, it seems like it will be good. If you look here, the gray represents the inventory assets of the cosmetics industry, and the orange line is the inventory turnover ratio that you saw earlier. Yes, but if you look, the inventory has already decreased last year for cosmetics. And the turnover ratio starts to increase from the second quarter. If you look at the orange line, you can see that it was the second quarter of last year. But for cosmetics, in the case of small and medium-sized companies, some companies had good performance since last year, but for companies like LG Household & Health, it was not good last year. So, first of all, what should I explain first? In order to become a leading sector in Korea, such as a leading stock sector.

The most important condition for this to happen is that the top 1 and 2 companies in the industry should do well. No matter how well small and medium-sized companies below perform, they cannot lead the industry on their own. However, Amorepacific and LG Household & Health Care did very well in the first quarter. Amorepacific and LG Household & Health Care both did well for two reasons. First, their performance in the first quarter was good. Second, last year when the market conditions were not good, they reduced their inventory significantly, which was a good move. If they hadn't reduced it, the turnaround this year wouldn't have been as significant. This is really good in terms of revenue. When you look at it, the orange line going up is really good because, for example, if the market conditions were bad last year, the revenue would decrease. But the fact that the orange line is going up means that the revenue decreased by 10, but the inventory assets decreased by more than 10.

We've reduced it, so, because they themselves didn't have a good aquarium, they worked hard to now clean up the inventory and get ready to turn around. We could catch it first as a turnover rate. Now, as the turnover rate goes up, it's a good sign, right? It means getting ready to turn around as it goes up. There aren't many places like that now. I marked it in red. If you look at the clothing sector on the right, the clothing sector is very good for comparison. If you slightly move to the right, these are cosmetics. Actually, what comes out from the bottom is beauty. So, it aligns very well with the slightly mid-range consumer trend in the U.S. But clothing is the same. But about two weeks ago, the brand started performing well.

As I come out, in the U.S., stocks have risen by 20%, and Crocs has recently hit an all-time high. Unfortunately, the clothing sector in Korea is not ready to turn around unlike cosmetics. Their sales were not good, and they are still unable to reduce inventory. If they reduce inventory like cosmetics did last year and the turnover rate increases, it is likely that K-beauty trends will make it more possible for Korean clothing companies to turn around. Currently, it is a bit challenging to see. In the clothing sector, it's like hardware. For example, Samsung Electronics or Inno-Tech, these are examples of sectors where turnover rates are increasing. These friends are one of the representative sectors where the turnover rate is increasing. Below, let's now shrink the chart a bit.

If you look at it, I've marked in red arrows for industries where you can consider inventory and assets important and are ready to turn around. So, starting from the top, there's the chemical industry. In the chemical industry, you can see that the inventory has decreased, and the turnover rate is hitting the bottom and rising. Last year, the chemical industry had sales that were consistently decreasing by 10% to 20% each quarter. However, improving the turnover rate means that they have significantly reduced their inventory. In this case, they are in a state of readiness for a month. For example, if signals indicating even a slight improvement in demand are confirmed from the bottom, then they can increase their weight at that time. So, in the case of cosmetics, it can be seen as a textbook example of a situation where things were bad and are now improving.

So, because of this part, we can only see cosmetics positively this year. Recently, the stock prices have been moving sideways a bit, but as we approach the second-quarter earnings season, interest in companies with good performance will rise again, and attention will be focused once more. So, the sectors include chemicals, non-ferrous metals, cosmetics, IT, hardware, and displays. I included semiconductors in red, of course. I think ultimately these are the candidates that can be included in the Earnings Almighty that I initially titled. I am looking at companies that will stand out more compared to others in terms of good performance. Yes, that's what I'm looking for. And now, the key point is exports. Yes, choosing companies that excel in exports will still be the most important investment strategy in the second half of the year. Yes, that's correct.

So, there are various sectors, but actually, I haven't talked much about semiconductors, aside from cosmetics. Personally, I would like to focus on that. Recently, if you look at the market, the turnover is fast, but eventually, the second-quarter earnings season will start again. I think the focus will shift back to that direction. So, in the second quarter, unlike the third and fourth quarters as I mentioned earlier, I don't have big concerns because it's an earnings season. Therefore, I believe there is no need to worry much about the market. That's why on the next page, I have highlighted some promising sectors in boxes. The next page is the second half of 2024, which is decided by our center. We have organized it focusing on large-cap stocks. And this is what I [CONTINUES IN THE NEXT SEGMENT]

Now, I always bring a lot of items. Yes, these are good companies. Just by looking at it, what this means is companies where the rate of increase in revenue is faster than the rate of increase in inventory are listed in the first table, and in the second table, companies where revenue is increasing but inventory is decreasing are listed. The ones at the top are companies where both revenue and inventory assets are increasing, while the companies in the box below are companies where revenue is increasing but inventory assets are decreasing. This means both turnover rates are increasing. As you saw earlier, it's important for the orange line to go up. So when approaching these items, oh, this is not the complete list, there are no more pages. So I have selected and brought them like this, and for the complete report, I have uploaded it to my channel, so please check it out once.

They're the same. So, the companies here actually announced their first-quarter results, and we had updated them. There are some poor performances, but if you look at most of them, their stock prices are good. However, when they enter the second quarter, there is still enough momentum to look forward to. Even if sales are increasing, the question is whether inventory is increasing or decreasing. So, they are dividing these two. But in the second half or maybe around next year, many predict that the economy will cool down a bit compared to now. If the economy slows down a bit or even stagnates, companies without inventory might be recognized as more attractive, right? Without the burden of inventory, if the sales are better, that's all that matters, isn't it?

What is not mentioned here is that the revenue increased by 100. For example, if the inventory increased by 110, then you can see that these friends are gradually accumulating. Companies like this, and those companies, well, even if the revenue growth rates are the same, depending on how much the inventory has increased, the attractiveness completely changes. I have also included the content of the performance analysis in front, so it would be helpful to refer to that. When the economy seems to be improving, of course, a company with a lot of inventory accumulation is not a burden at all, and having a lot of inventory may even be more attractive. But in the opposite situation, isn't it more attractive for companies whose inventory is slightly decreasing to think about that a bit? Yes, I have set the direction for the program again. Overall, the burden seems too much in the market.

There are many, so Korean companies are actually facing quite a few issues here, I see. So, overall, when you look at it, these kinds of materials are also available on our famous institute's Telegram channel. There, you can check the complete list of items. Oh, here I have put the address, just take a look. Let me tell you about EQ Future, which means Eco Future. Anyway, here I also upload daily materials and the reports that I publish. So, it would be helpful for you to refer to them. If you search for EQ Future, EQ followed by M R on Telegram, you will probably be able to see our famous institute's materials. Thank you for appearing after a long time. As always, I am truly grateful for the solid information today.

I'm a bit worried that my energy might be dropping a bit. No, because I couldn't sleep well yesterday, I feel a bit worn out. Yes, oh my, like this. So, despite feeling a bit like this, I will become healthier. Yes, next time, I will meet you with even more energy. Thank you very much. Thank you. With the famous researcher of Mirae Asset Securities, this morning, we discussed the second half investment strategy from a bearish perspective. I greeted you, and the opening bell live... Oh, today too, indeed. Will the stocks of some secondary battery companies soar again, or will there be another tremendous surge? Whether related stocks will dance again, please check this out on the opening bell live. I will see you again tomorrow morning. Thank you to everyone who joined. Thanks to the meticulous care of Park Geun-young, Lee Seon-hyung, Sa Gyeong-in, and Yeom Seung-hwan, the investment masters.

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