M&A Activity and Big Tech's Future Amid Regulatory Challenges

M&A activity may rise as lower rates and political clarity emerge, despite ongoing regulatory challenges.

### M&A Activity and Tech Investment Trends Amid Regulatory and Economic Changes
* 📉 The current environment reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities, particularly as the Federal Reserve enters a **cutting cycle**, which may lead to **increased M&A activity**.
* 💼 Despite regulatory hurdles that have made deal-making more complex, companies are still pursuing strategic acquisitions, as evidenced by the **Direct TV deal**.
* 📊 The tech sector is experiencing a shift, with hedge funds reallocating investments from big tech to Chinese companies, driven by the **potential for recovery in the Chinese market**.
* 📈 In 2024, returns have been influenced by themes surrounding **big tech** and the **soft landing narrative**, with **lower rates possibly benefiting small-cap stocks** as well.
* 🇨🇳 China's market, previously under pressure, is seeing **renewed investor interest** due to supportive monetary and fiscal policies, although **significant challenges remain**.
* 💰 Valuations in the Chinese market, particularly for stocks like Alibaba and JD.com, suggest there may still be **upside potential** despite past pessimism.
* 🌍 The competitive landscape between U.S. and Chinese tech firms is complicated by **regulatory and geopolitical risks**, which investors must **carefully consider** when evaluating these assets.
* ⚖ Overall, while big tech remains a dominant player, external factors like **U.S.-China tensions** could impact future valuations and market dynamics **significantly**.

Look, we do have a feeling of many Mondays on our hands. Are we going to see more deals go through as we see rates get lower? Well, listen, I mean, we have seen some pickup in deals this year. And I think one of the challenges has been higher rates. And so the expectation that as the Fed enters the definitive cutting cycle, we're going to see some shifts broadly, and that can impact the M&A environment as well. There's also the regulatory angle and, of course, getting deals through, and that's been harder in recent years. And so that remains something that is something that investors and companies are going to have to continue to contend with. But certainly, lower rates is a bit of a tailwind. What's interesting is many felt perhaps M&A and indeed IPOs that we say it are all going to be held back until post the political anxiety that is the US election. That doesn't seem to be holding it back.

right now. Is that your view matter? Well, you know, I do think that regulatory impact has been felt. That doesn't mean that companies aren't going to engage in deals when it makes strategic sense. I think that's what we're seeing with the Direct TV deal. But I do think that there's potentially been less activity than there otherwise would be. And so I think that as we turn the corner and start to have some clarity on what that looks like, we may start to see a pickup in activity on the M&A front. What about activity and ownership of big tech right now? Because we're down on the day on the Nasdaq. That is talk that hedge funds are selling out of technology names to get into low and behold Chinese companies. How are we seeing that play out in terms of people's desire to stay committed to the Magnificent Seven? You know, it's such an interesting question because a lot of times when we're talking about the environment that

we're in, there's really been two drivers of returns in 2024. Of course, there's been the theme. And of course, that's really benefited the big tech space. And there's also been the soft landing theme, and now we're adding the cutting cycle to the mix. So I think that's really within the US broadening out the trade, not necessarily meaning that folks need to abandon big tech. I mean, lower rates aren't necessarily bad for big tech, but it certainly brings other areas like the small cap area into the forefront of investors' minds. Now what's happening in China is so fascinating because this has been an area that has been under pressure. It's had multiple false dawns. And now, as Bloomberg has reported, so clearly there's the monetary and the fiscal side coming together to push these stocks higher. And so I think that's giving a lot of investor enthusiasm to assets that have been really depressed.

You can find some very healthy big tech names in China, but the overhang there has just made it very difficult for investors to want to get involved. We've already seen the FOMO kick in, the rallying of the names we currently have on the screen, the Alibaba's, the JD Dotcoms, the Byju's. Is there still juice to go here, or do you wait to see how big an impact the stimulus actually has from a fundamental perspective? I'd argue that the valuations are still there. I mean, when you take a look at something like Crane shares ETF that's tracking the China market, and you look at where it peaked in February 2021, it was around 130, and it's come down all the way down to about 18 at one point, now in the thirties. It potentially won't go all the way back up to something like 130, but you can see a little bit of room left on the

valuation side because the sentiment has been so bleak. I mean, there's been numerous sell-side research pieces out over the past several years saying that this is a no-go space. And so now that you have kind of the support for the demand side, I'm not saying there aren't still issues. There are plenty of issues left, but I think this takes at least some of the concerns away from investors' minds. And we have had such a US is the only game in town for technology trade. Is that still the case? Well, it's hard to find similar opportunities from kind of a financial resilience or health or dominance perspective. And what you have in Silicon Valley. There is a lot of uniqueness to those types of names. But in the closest corollary that I see really is in China, where you have some of these similar types of companies with really healthy balance sheets. So I think that this is that competitive trade.

But of course, they have concerns around the regulatory environment. There are geopolitical risks. There are a number of other things that kind of spoil the apple cart a little bit there. But from an asset perspective, they're pretty competitive. I just want to double-click on that in terms of regulatory concerns, because there are actually geopolitical regulatory concerns as well, with China pushing back against the video chips that's benefited Chinese chip makers today. You've got talk about it much more in a moment, Martha, but how much are you factoring in for your investors, the idea that China-US tensions will continue? I mean, I think that is one of the kind of genius events that's out there, and it checks, of course, tech, but it also affects the broader market. And we have talks of tariffs and the like as well. So there's a lot of questions around kind of the cooperation of different countries and how they'll play well. And then something like I thinking about

kind of the security risk, how that factors into things. So, I think there is something of a when folks are thinking about these assets to think about the valuation and whether it's accounting for that type of risk. And as we're taking a look at big tech today, even post-summer storm, I'd argue the valuations are a bit high, and they're not really taking into account some of these outside events that could be problematic for some of these companies.

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Lower interest rates are expected to create a tailwind for M&A activity, which has already seen a pickup this year despite regulatory challenges.

The political anxiety surrounding the US election has not significantly held back M&A and IPO activities.

Hedge funds are shifting their focus from big tech to Chinese companies, raising questions about the commitment to the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants.

In 2024, returns have been driven by the big tech theme and a soft landing, with lower rates also bringing small caps into focus.

China's market, under pressure for a while, is now seeing a rally due to combined monetary and fiscal support, boosting investor enthusiasm.

The valuations of Chinese stocks, such as those in Crane Shares ETF, have dropped significantly, suggesting there may still be room for growth.

The Impact of Sentiment on Technology Trade

The bleak sentiment in the tech sector has led to numerous sell-side research pieces discouraging investment.

While the US has been the dominant player in technology trade, China is emerging as a competitive alternative with similar companies and healthy balance sheets.

However, geopolitical and regulatory concerns, particularly between the US and China, pose significant risks for investors.

Security risks should be considered when valuing assets, as they can significantly impact a company's performance.

The current valuations of big tech companies, even after recent challenges, seem high and do not adequately account for potential outside events that could pose problems.

This oversight in valuation may lead to unrealistic expectations for these companies' future performance.