Prediction Markets: Killer App for Crypto in 2024

Poly Market, a prediction market platform, drives historic volumes, becoming a vital source for election outcome predictions.

### Poly Market: The $217M Prediction Market for the 2024 US Presidential Election
* 🔮 Despite the lack of mention of crypto during the Trump versus Biden presidential debate, a potentially game-changing **killer app for crypto this cycle has been discovered: prediction markets**.
* 📈 Poly Market has seen unprecedented volumes, with **$217 million in total value locked (TVL)** in the market for the 2024 US presidential election winner.
* 🏛 Mainstream media organizations such as Bloomberg frequently cite Poly Market as a **reliable source of truth** due to its **liquidity** and the **participation of all players**.
* 🔄 Prediction markets allow real-time prediction of future outcomes, and individuals with insider information can **influence the market by placing bets**.
* 🧠 Prediction markets have been a concept in the crypto space since the early days of Ethereum, but **usability issues have hindered their adoption until now**.
* 💬 Vitalik Buterin has shown support for prediction markets, calling them "**truth-seeking and democratic**" technologies.
* 🎯 The most popular prediction markets on Poly Market include the **2024 US presidential election winner**, the **Democratic nominee**, and the **probability of Biden dropping out of the race**. Elon Musk responded to Vitalik's tweet about prediction markets with a simple "**Yeah**."

[Music] David, we ended last week's weekly rollup with a little bet. Because we are on the brink of the presidential debate, Trump versus Biden, that was going to happen. And there was a bet as to whether crypto would be mentioned or not. I lost that bet. Crypto was not mentioned. But in my defense, very little was mentioned during that debate in terms of substance. He golf was mentioned. It was an absolutely, uh, Terri train wreck of a debate. There's been much commentary on that. I'm sure Bank list listeners have not missed that commentary. But crypto was unmentioned at all during that debate. And who knows what's going to happen? Who knows whether we'll have the same presidential candidates in a couple of weeks? You like versus versus this debate. That doesn't mean, oh wait, somebody does know. Oh, really? Oh, okay. Well, that gets to what we intro beginning of this episode, which is we may have stumbled across a killer app for crypto this cycle. We've been looking for it. Is there more this

been under our noses this entire time. Prediction markets. Poly Market is driving like historic unprecedented of volumes. And what it's doing, what is Poly Market, and what are we looking at on the screen. Poly Market is a prediction market platform. So you can bet on the future outcomes of events. Prediction markets have been a thing before crypto. There predict it is a prediction market that's like web 2 based and like just like a transer based. It's kind of janky. I've used it before, tried to bet on Andrew Yang last cycle. Didn't work, lost. But I could probably bet on Andrew Yang again this cycle. At least some people are betting on Michelle Obama winning on a 4% chance of becoming the Democratic or the presidential election winner. There is on the presidential election winner for 20124 on Poly Market. There is $216 million of TVL in this one market, this one single market. So this market is extremely liquid. And so the cool thing about prediction markets is

that it allows the market to predict future outcomes. And it's an oracle. It's a source of Truth. Uh, and so not only is this just like kind of cool to have, but mainstream media organizations like Bloomberg frequently site Poly Market, the crypto at Poly Market, as a source of truth because it is. It has 85% of all prediction market volumes as it relates to the presidential election or politics in general. So if you are looking to site anything, you what you do is you go site the most liquid venue because that's where all the players are making their bets, and that is the best source of truth of what is most likely. Oh yeah, and it responds in real time. So during the debate, the percentages like so right now we're looking at presidential election winner 2024. Donald Trump has a 61% chance of winning at this point in time, but guess what? Joe Biden is not number two. You know who's hopped into number two? Kamala Harris. Harris is number two, so the

17% which is nuts right because she's not even running at this. She's not even running well. So this is kind of the cool thing about prediction markets is that if you are an Insider with Insider information that you think that the market is not priced in because it's secret, you get to go to a prediction market and bet your life savings and you will change the market. You will change the outcome of this particular bet. And so maybe maybe I think it's insane just because I'm watching K Harris meme videos about like unburdening ourselves from what have been. I don't know if you've seen these Ryan, but like maybe someone knows something and they think that like the Democratic party is going to conspire to swap out Joe with Kamla Harris. Yeah, I mean we have Michelle Obama with a 4% probability so it could it could get even crazier. Why is Michelle Obama in there? Well, so I mean what's interesting about this too is from the very early days of Ethereum.

and and and crypto prediction markets have been a thing that we had hoped to build right. And so like augur was a very early implementation. It's like one of our first big apps ethereum. Yeah, but the problem is the wallet ux hasn't been there. It's been too hard to use like gas trans ether in the first time around. Yeah, and now here we are in 2024. And it's like with poly Market, it's a pretty. It's easier to use than than predict it. It's easier to use than than web 2. So um very exciting to see. And also as as you mentioned mainstream attention. They are citing this in like mainstream media as uh like a good source for truth on what the heck is going on in the election. $260 million is hard to argue with. Uh bology put out a tweet uh right after the debate. This this is a a tweet of Joe Biden's chances of becoming the Democratic uh nominee uh plummet from like 85 90% chance down to 25% chance right after in real time.

happen in real time, and so we're watching, we're watching in real time things like play out. Uh, and of course, what happened after the debate, all of the Democratic Party is now saying like, Oh, maybe, maybe Biden shouldn't be our nominee. Uh, Hayden Adams put out a tweet saying, Poly market for Dem nominees is popping off. Prediction markets are basically anonymous insider leaks at this point. So again, if you have, if you're an insider and you know something, you can leak that information to the public without saying who you are or what you know just by like smashing that buy button on a particular prediction market. Politics is really a great place to bet. This is on the Poly Market homepage. Like the most populated prediction markets are like presidential election winner for 2024, who's going to be the Democratic nominee, the probability that Biden drops out of the presidential race. That's a 76% chance. Wow, at this point in time, I actually believe those numbers, which is totally crazy. We're so close to election day and

we have the Democratic nominee, uh, potentially 76% dropping out, and uh, the numbers have been absolutely crazy. This is open market interest, uh, April 2024 all-time highs. And just like, you know, like these election markets have propelled Poly Market into, uh, incredible volumes here. It's like doing analytics so we can track all this stuff. Uh, it's really cool to see. Can I just rattle off some numbers here and just in terms of size of the Deb the, the, uh, the bets, okay. Presidential election winner 2024, $217 million. Democratic nominee 2024, $80 million. Biden drops out of the presidential rage question mark 10 million. Republican vice president nominee, there is $6.1 million on the, on the bet for the Republican vice president nominee. Presidential election popular vote winner, uh, 43 million doll, uh, like the, these markets are super liquid. Yeah. Did you, did you pay attention to how much Capital was on the me versus Nick, uh, uh, Poly Market fight? Um, did I, did I ever bet? I don't think I

got to the stage of betting that oh yeah because you just took it directly with Kyle Sani yeah yeah it was like it was like 40 k or something like this or was it more 40 to 80 it was about to hit $100,000 yeah yeah that's crazy people love betting on these things dude no it's it's fun and like I said I mean this this now works on on crypto I believe this is all on polygon as well so that's right uscc on polygon yeah actually relatively centralized of an app except for the fact that it uses uscc on polygon underneath it's using crypto in the right places um this is vitalic showing his support for uh prediction markets he says prediction markets and Community notes are becoming two Flagship social epistemic Technologies of the 2020s both are truth seeking and Democratic built around open public participation rather than pre-selected uh Elites I want to see many more things like this metalic coming out in support of prediction

markets and what's going on with Poly Market. Did you see uh Elon? Elon responded to this tweet. Did you see what he said? No, no, I didn't. He responds, Yeah. What does that mean? That's it. He just responded, Yeah. Is that good? All right, thanks. I like that. Oh, uh, Community notes. That's why Vitalik said Community notes. So, Elon Musk was summoned. That makes sense. Community notes, by the way, is great. It is. It is great. To continue leveling up your crypto game, then you need to get on the Bankless newsletter, the world's most popular crypto email, and it's completely free. Just click below to sign up. [Music]

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Bankless Clips

The Impact of the Presidential Debate on Crypto and the Rise of Poly Market

Crypto was not mentioned in the recent presidential debate, which was criticized for its lack of substance.

However, Poly Market, a prediction market platform, is experiencing historic levels of volume, with $216 million of total value locked in a single market.

This indicates a growing interest and liquidity in prediction markets, potentially making it a killer app for crypto in this election cycle.

The Significance of Poly Market in Predicting Future Outcomes

Poly Market is a highly influential prediction market, with 85% of all prediction market volumes for the presidential election and politics.

It is a trusted source of real-time information, often cited by mainstream media like Bloomberg.

The market allows insiders to bet on secret information, potentially influencing the outcome of bets.

The Evolution of Crypto Prediction Markets

Poly Market has improved the user experience of crypto prediction markets, making it more mainstream and easier to use than its predecessors.

The platform has gained mainstream attention and significant credibility, with $260 million in transactions and real-time predictions on important events like the Democratic nominee's chances.

Prediction markets are now seen as anonymous insider leaks, particularly in the realm of politics, with a focus on the presidential election and the probability of Biden dropping out of the race.

The Impact of Election Markets on Poly Market

The open market interest for the 2024 presidential election and Democratic nominee is at an all-time high, with millions of dollars in bets.

The election markets on Poly Market have seen incredibly high volumes, especially for the presidential election winner and the Democratic nominee.

Vitalik supports prediction markets as flagship social technologies of the 2020s, emphasizing their democratic and truth-seeking nature.

Elon Musk's Response to Poly Market Tweet

Elon Musk responded with a simple "Yeah" to a tweet, sparking discussion and speculation.

The mention of "Community notes" and Vitalik's involvement added to the intrigue around Elon's response.

The incident generated enough interest to attract people to sign up for the Bankless newsletter for further crypto updates.