It's time for the global correspondent report. We are connected with our Washington correspondent, Jung In-seol. A big event is just around the corner. Tonight, the CPI will be announced, and tomorrow morning, along with the FOMC meeting, we need to pay attention to the press conference and the remarks of Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Especially in this FOMC meeting, various contents such as the dot plot and economic outlook will be released. Could you start by summarizing the key points? I think we can categorize it into three main points. In the previous FOMC meeting, the year-end interest rate projection was around 4.6%. This time, the current interest rate is at 5.2% to 5.25%, indicating that there will likely be three rate hikes by the end of the year. This time, the market expects the number of rate hikes to decrease to once or twice. In the interest rate futures market, it is anticipated that the first rate cut will happen in September. If there are no rate cuts by the end of the year, the market could face a significant shock.

First, the second key point is that the neutral interest rate outlook does not promote overheating or recession. The neutral interest rate is the rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. The Fed estimates this neutral interest rate based on the long-term interest rates it provides. In March, the Fed's long-term interest rate was around 2.6%. However, due to the delayed easing of inflation, there is a high possibility that this long-term interest rate will rise to over 3%. If this happens, it is expected that the Fed will find it difficult to raise rates for the time being. This scenario could gain traction.

Third, the crucial point is Powell's press conference. Powell has been evaluated as dovish. It will be interesting to see if he maintains that tone this time. If he intends to raise rates, more data will be needed, and the future rate path may not deviate significantly from the tone that the data warrants.

The market could be greatly unsettled by more dovish remarks on inflation or interest rate paths. In summary, it will be necessary to pay attention to the Fed's interest rate and frequency within the year, long-term interest rates, and Powell's remarks. Yes, we need to focus on the FOMC checkpoints, and also, not only the CPI but also the remaining schedules for this week, such as PPI and expected inflation. As you mentioned, this week can be called an inflation week, especially this Wednesday, Super Wednesday, is crucial. On Wednesday, the 10th, in the U.S. local time, there is the FOMC in the afternoon, but in Korean time, it will be tonight. The CPI for May will be announced. Even though it's the second day of the FOMC, the CPI results will have an impact. The Wall Street Journal panelists' forecast for May CPI is a 0.1% increase from the previous month and a 3.4% increase from the same period last year. In April, the CPI was...

Compared to the previous month, it rose by 0.3%, and compared to the previous year, it rose by 3.4%. Based on this, the headline CPI is not expected to change significantly. A more important indicator is the May core CPI, which is expected to rise by 0.3% compared to the previous month and by 3.5% compared to the same period last year. It is expected to be at a level similar to April and slightly ease compared to the previous year. If it turns out to be higher than expected, inflation may be delayed further, and the timing of rate hikes by the Fed may be pushed back. Last week was focused on employment, while this week, as I mentioned, is focused on prices. Following CPI, the PPI will play a leading role. The Producer Price Index will be announced on the 13th local time, and on the 14th, the expected inflation index for the United States will be released. Following that, statements from Janet Yellen, the Treasury Secretary, and officials from the Fed will continue. On the 13th, Tesla's shareholders' meeting will be held. In 2018, Tesla was...

Elon Musk was supposed to give him a stock option with an incentive of 300 million dollars, but a court in Delaware invalidated this compensation plan. Therefore, Tesla's board of directors attached an agenda to provide the same compensation through a new disclosure to shareholders, and the results will be announced at the shareholders' meeting on the 13th. So far, this was Inseol Jung from the Korean Economic Daily in Washington.

CPI에 쏠린 눈!ㅣ연내 금리인하 몇 번?ㅣ6월 FOMC 관전 포인트ㅣ정인설 한국경제신문 워싱턴특파원ㅣ굿모닝한경글로벌마켓

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