Hello, this is Kim Hyun-seok from the foreign correspondent in the United States. I am Kim Yeon-seok from the Korea Economic Daily. I will deliver the market news on Tuesday, June 11th. It's the opening day of the FMC meeting. The meeting will conclude in two days, and tomorrow, the results will be announced. Typically, the market is quiet on days like this. However, today, there were two main players who took the spotlight separately. I will explain this in detail. Today, the SM 500 index rose by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq jumped by 0.88%. We can still see the continued rise in tech stocks, especially big tech stocks recently. Also, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield dropped by 6.7 basis points to 4.42%, barely holding at 4.4%. Tomorrow, the May consumer price index and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes will be released, divided into morning and afternoon sessions.

There were two big games. Investors showed a cautious attitude. The reporter, Walter Nell, said that the US Federal Reserve could suggest a single rate cut this year due to disappointing inflation report tomorrow morning. A single cut means that the rate cut may not start until the end of this year, like in December. He wrote something like that. Of course, he added that if the CPI report meets expectations, it could lead to two rate cuts. Nevertheless, this article slightly raised investors' caution. However, Apple, which announced its AI strategy yesterday, soared to an all-time high, protecting the market. In the afternoon, there was a massive influx of foreign investors in the US 10-year Treasury bond auction, causing interest rates to plummet significantly. Despite facing such an important doubleheader.

For the second day in a row, Apple continued to hit an all-time high. Apple was the star of the market today. After releasing their AI strategy yesterday and dropping nearly 2%, today they started to rise along with the New York Stock Exchange. Apple's AI strategy presentation was actually as everyone had expected. There was nothing beyond that. Personalization through AI and enhanced security were key. But it was enough. Yes, to trigger iPhone upgrades for Apple users. Wedbush's analyst, Daniel Ives, said Apple delivered everything they needed. Wall Street evaluations were generally positive. JP Morgan stated that Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference provided enough confidence in the expected upgrade cycle. The stock price may take a break for a while, but this is just a report that came out in the early morning. However, we as consumers.

When we investigate, we find that the hardware replacement cycle is mainly driven by upgrades in functions. So, this time, as the functions are significantly upgraded with AI, the hardware replacement cycle is expected to be greatly extended. Overall, it is estimated that about 1.4 billion iPhones will need to be upgraded over the next few years. Davis analyzed that the AI features introduced by Apple at yesterday's WWDC event will lead the iPhone's upgrade cycle. Just like how digital music, which used to be an independent app like Napster in Apple's previous milestones, has now been integrated into consumer-specific apps, various apps are now also being integrated with AI. Therefore, it is expected that a wide range of AI adoptions will lead the way. One of the key points this time is that Apple's AI features are being adopted in each app and integrated.

It was expected to be operational, which means that although innovation has decreased, improvements have been made to make AI enhanced features easier to use. The partner of Debater Management, Jim Munster, stated that a new chapter of growth has begun for Apple. AI features make Apple devices even more valuable. Based on some of Apple's unique data, this experience will become essential for Apple users. It is believed that growth will return to Apple starting from the end of this year, and the growth rate for the fiscal year 2025 is expected to be over 10%. To use the AI features announced by Apple, you will need an iPhone 15 Pro or higher. Currently, only 5.5% of iPhone users have phones with the M1 chip. Therefore, it is said that the other 95% will need an iPhone 16 or higher, which will be released in the fall. According to a study by Bank of America,

77% of American consumers own iPhone 11, 12, or 13, which they have been using for about 3 to 5 years now. These could be candidates for replacement this fall. If you look here, most users are concentrated on the 13, followed by 11 and 12. Users want to replace them because they want the AI upgrade feature. Of course, there is also pessimism. Apple's recent WWDC keynote speech failed to strengthen the belief that consumers will switch to iPhones faster. Apple is witnessing that its most important business, the iPhone, is facing a slowdown in growth. The most recent iPhone sales decreased by 10% compared to the same period last year. Apple announced plans to provide a more personalized version of AI to 2.2 billion device users, including open AIY contracts. The keynote speech was Apple's best hope for promoting iPhone sales through AI, but it

I expressed disappointment and will stop talking about Apple's stock here. Next, let's move on to talking about FMC. In October, early in the morning, journalist T. House, an unofficial spokesperson for the FMC, released an article about the FMC outlook. To summarize the article, the title is something like this: Will they hike once, twice, or not at all? His outlook can be summarized as follows: it seems that the key interest rate will be maintained steadily within the range of 5.2 to 5.5%. Secondly, there is a higher possibility of a rate decrease rather than an increase in the next rate movement, indicating a high probability of maintaining the policy statement implying this. Most predictions suggest that there will be no significant policy changes, so the focus will be on the so-called dot plot. The dot plot may be determined at the last minute by the CPI report to be released on Wednesday morning. Due to a disappointing report, more [END OF TRANSCRIPT]

A member may suggest a rate cut once this year. Also, a quiet gem that predicts what a quiet report can lead to more members to a second cut. Such economic outlooks are summarized in a chart that comes out all at once. Yes, these economic outlooks are not the result of FMC deliberation. Instead of discussing whether to do this, the meeting is about writing down individually and collecting them. For example, the difference between a single cut and two cuts in the median value can be determined by just one or two members. Many investors assume that two cuts are needed to reach by September. This is to propose two cuts from September to December. When the median value for one cut comes out, it means that the interest rate will not start until the end of this year. Goldman Sachs' chief economist said it would be interpreted as a very strong signal. Also, some members who are considering two cuts this year have the option to choose.

Some analysts may plan to have just one rate cut to set a lower market expectation as the basic scenario, thinking it could lead to greater price stability. This way, the market might think, Oh, then prices will definitely drop more. Because it's a method like that, there is a possibility of writing it down as one rate cut, not two. Unless the economy deteriorates rapidly, September will likely be the most appropriate timing for an interest rate cut. Members are unlikely to send strong signals now because they will have additional data for the next three months. Even if data for May is released, if June and July are okay, it could still be fine. So, the data for May doesn't determine everything. The same goes for CPI. The dot plot is similar. Overall, on the dot plot, only one rate cut for this year will be presented.

It was an article with a similar feeling. As I read through, I felt like I've heard this story once or twice before. In fact, the FMC forecast reports coming out of Wall Street are generally similar. It could happen twice, but what if it happens once? UBS's basic scenario is a rate cut twice on the dot plot. However, if strong employment in May leads to a CPI higher than expected tomorrow, more members may step back from a rate cut. UBS will make decisions affecting the FMC in November, September, and July. If most members suggest that a single 25bp rate cut is insufficient this year, it seems unlikely that there will be enough data by September or July to consider raising rates again. Just as we've made a decision once now, we may need to change it twice. Such data will come out in the future.

It's difficult to come out for three months. Yes, because inflation was low due to base effects last year, many people believe that inflation will not decrease much from now until the end of the year. It is expected to decrease compared to the previous month, but it is expected to be maintained compared to the previous year. Therefore, it was explained that suggesting a rate cut once this year at the FOMC meeting in June is appropriate, and it is seen that the interest rate door will be closed until December practically. This was reported by journalist Nick Tidwell. Currently, the consensus of the core CPI by major financial institutions is 0.28. Goldman Sachs and UBS are the lowest at 0.24 and 0.25, but now Bank of America is at 0.30. There is also Nomura at 0.3, but Nomura has been fluctuating a lot, so let's exclude that. How should the CPI come out except for here?

Can the committee members feel relieved, and will the market also move positively? The consensus of the Wall Street's core CPI for the previous month is a 0.28% increase, which rounds up to 0.3%. JP Morgan's Trading Desk's Gel Tyler, Head of Market Intelligence, mentioned that the probability of the core CPI coming out between 0.2% and 0.25% compared to the previous month has decreased to 12.5%. However, if it falls between 0.2% and 0.25%, there will be a sharp increase in expectations for September interest rates. The probability of it being below 0.2% is very low, but if it does, it is predicted that the S&P 500 index will rise by 1.75% to 2.5%. On the other hand, if it falls between 0.35% and 0.40%, the market is expected to drop by 1% to 1.25%. If the core CPI comes out around 0.28% as per the consensus and the Fed's dot plot shows two rate hikes, investors may breathe a sigh of relief.

Will the stock price rise sharply? Tyler Head, an analyst at JP, predicted that if it comes out at 0.25-0.3%, the market is expected to rise by 0.75-1.25%. Charles Schwab's Peter Peterson, a derivatives director, stated that while the CPI report and the FOMC announcement may cause some market volatility, due to recent mixed economic indicators, he cannot be sure there is enough to change the patient attitude of the Fed. In short, the current data is not strong enough to justify a rate hike, nor is the economic recovery strong enough to be considered robust. If there is no clear trend yet, some say that stocks could rise higher in hope. However, some are saying that tomorrow might not be interesting. Franklin Templeton's EPAS Income Advisors CEO, Pad, believes that tomorrow will be the same, nothing much will change, so it seems like a very boring meeting. There's nothing new, so it might be a very dull meeting.

America has stated that CPI FMC is not a game-changer. CPI is expected to be similar, and FMC is unlikely to see significant changes. Looking ahead until September, there are still three more months left, so we will continue to observe. It could just be a passing phase for now. The founder of Metal Alice, Edan Chris Bali, also mentioned on the chart that this year's interest rate hike could be from once to twice, which is already reflected in the market prices. As long as it's not zero, they won't lower the interest rates this year. If it hits zero, then they won't lower the interest rates for the year. He also mentioned that some issues could arise now. With various speculations rampant, the bond market maintained a yield of 4.469% on the 10-year Treasury note all morning. However, the 10-year Treasury note auction results released at 1 p.m., with a total value of 39 billion dollars, completely changed the market sentiment.

At the time of issuance, it was decided much lower than the market yield of 4.458%, at 4.43%. It was far below the average of the past six auctions, which was around 2.67 times lower, at about 2.0. Before the tightening of the Fed started, it was the highest since early 2022. Demand has significantly revived, especially indirect demand representing overseas demand, which accounted for 74.5%. This was the highest since February 2023. Of course, as direct demand decreased, for example, demand from US pension funds decreased. However, now indirect demand has increased significantly. Therefore, primary dealers only needed to take up 11.6%. Typically, they would take up around 16% to 18%, but with just 11.6%, it was enough. Since it was selling well, they made the announcement the day before the long-term government bond auction, wondering why there was such demand.

A credit market official said demand for U.S. Treasuries has been on the rise recently, especially in Europe, particularly in France, due to increasing political uncertainties. From the Bukba Report, the founder of Bukba Lips questioned whether the market is smelling a soft CPI tomorrow or worrying about economic slowdown. In either case, it can go down. But this could be good or bad. Ultimately, at around 5 p.m., the 10-year Treasury yield fell by 4.42% to 5.1%, recording a decrease of 4.83%. As you can see, it was maintained for a while and then plummeted. Yes, it plummeted. This is at 1 p.m. As soon as the auction results came out at 1 p.m., it just fell like a waterfall, from 4.46 to 4.39, about 7 points down continuously. Looking at the data, we are not at a level where we should be worried about an economic recession today.

The National Federation of Independent Business in the U.S. is now feeling the pulse of the economy here. Small business owners, these people, presented the Small Business Optimism Index for May. It increased by 0.8 points from April to 90.5%, showing an upward trend for two consecutive months, reaching the highest level this year. But it's not all good news. It's still below the 50-year average of 98, quite low. Considering the interest rates for bank loans for over 99% of small businesses, they have no choice but to be low. Looking at the trend, it has been steadily decreasing and is now rising from the lowest level. Anyway, it's rising, albeit slightly. Despite being very modest, the fact that it is rising indicates that expectations for the business environment over the next six months were the least negative since August 2021. Moreover, many companies are... and more companies are hiring than in April.

I answered that we plan to increase employment, which is, of course, the lowest level since 2016, excluding the early days of the pandemic. The response that we plan to increase capital expenditures in the next 3 to 6 months was at 23%, rebounding from the lowest point in March, but still low. Overall, the inflation outlook was positive. The response about raising selling prices remained the same as the previous month at 25%. We are maintaining a limited range after July 2023. Inflation has decreased somewhat since July last year, showing a slowdown. The response that many will increase selling prices in the future was at 28%, slightly higher than 25%, but still similar to pre-pandemic levels. Wage pressures were relatively quiet. Companies reporting an increase in compensation costs decreased over the past month, and plans for compensation increases hit a low point after May 2021.

If you look at it, this is about how much they will increase the price of a price change. At first, they said they would raise it a lot, but it kept dropping steadily, and it is still dropping now. Companies that were planning to raise prices are decreasing, and even small business owners are decreasing. And although there was a statement that they would increase hiring among small and medium-sized enterprises, it decreased a bit, but now it is slightly increasing. Ned Davis Research indicates that the rebound of the NFI index suggests that the attitude of business owners towards the economy has somewhat improved, but the bigger picture is that this index has been hovering around the lowest levels since early 2013. This moderate level of optimism implies continuous and sound economic growth. It suggests that economic growth will not be very strong. In fact, it was announced yesterday in New York.

In the May consumer expectations survey by the Federal Reserve, it was revealed that the perception of the current financial situation of stores had improved, leading to an increase in responses. Now, it is time for retail stores and retail companies to announce their sales. The announced May retail sales showed a 5.5% increase compared to the previous year. Furthermore, based on JP Morgan Chase credit card usage, it was estimated that May retail sales had surged by 0.72%. Bank of America also estimated the likelihood of a soft landing to be as low as 10% to 15%, while the probability of a hard landing was seen at 45% to 50%, with a 30% to 35% chance of no landing at all. The key indexes of the stock market started today with a decline of 0.1% to 0.3%. However, Apple began to soar.

In the afternoon, after the announcement of the government bond auction, when interest rates plummeted, it turned into an upward trend. Ultimately, the Nasdaq rose by 0.88%, while the S&P 500 rose by 0.27%. However, the Dow Jones ended with a 0.31% decline. This is the appearance of the S&P 500 index. This kind of steady trend has been continuing recently. In the latter part of the trading session, very strong and positive trends have been consistently appearing. Although the index did not rise significantly, if this trend continues, buying pressure will increase. Even if it falls in the morning, people end up buying. For example, today, Apple surged by 7.26%, reaching $207, setting a new record high for the first time this year. Finally breaking free from the range of $168 to $198 that has been forming over the past year. We need to look at the revenue. Davidson's analyst Gil Luria mentioned that Apple has been focusing on revenue.

Due to the lack of growth, the stock price remained flat. Now, through AI, it is thought that Apple's growth trend could accelerate from low single digits to mid or high single digits over the next 1 to 2 years. It was mentioned that this could move Apple's stock. There were rumors circulating, not just rumors that the stock price surged due to share buybacks. Apple announced that it would repurchase its own shares worth a record $110 billion in the global stock market this year. Bank of America said that corporate clients' share buybacks were the second highest in history since 2010 based on last week's weekly basis. Over the past 13 weeks, it exceeded the typical seasonal level. Share buybacks by corporate clients this year have increased to 0.44% of the SNP market capitalization, up from 0.34% at this time last year. This is the annual WWDC stock performance of Apple.

In 2014, most of the time, when the WWDC was announced, the stock prices were mostly down or remained stable. But what about three months later? Three months later, the stock prices were in the yellow. Most of them went up, with only a few going down. So, people might think that if they wait for three months from this year, the prices will go up again. In most cases, they increased by more than 10% over the three months. It seems that after three months, when the new iPhone is released, the prices rise. For example, if it's announced in June, by September when the new iPhone is released, that's when the stock prices tend to rise significantly. JP Morgan fell by 2.63% and financial stocks plummeted today. The industry index dropped by 1.21%. A commercial building in Manhattan was sold at a 67% discount from its 2018 purchase price, for $50 million. Amid such news, if a sale actually goes through...

This level of sales will probably happen. Yes, sales are not happening right now, and the rest are at low prices, but people are holding onto them, not selling. They are either holding onto them without selling or extending loans and surviving. It's almost all like that. If eventually they are forced to sell, they will sell at this price. Amidst this, Pingko Investment Company stated that the true wave of pain for lenders on commercial real estate, from Pingko to offices, has just begun. They mentioned that since commercial real estate loans are heavily concentrated in some banks' books, more regional bank failures are expected. Due to the concentration in some parts, those banks could collapse. This was also mentioned in today's news Pingko report that in fact increased the demand for bonds. If you look at today's news, the sector index only rose in two sectors, information technology and communication services.

Is this all because of Apple? Everything else has dropped. Especially in finance, it has dropped a lot. What does this mean? It means that only rising stocks are rising. After the market announcement, after the market closed, Oracle's fourth-quarter earnings were really disappointing. Earnings per share were $1.63, falling short of the expected $1.65. Revenue also fell short, with an expected $14.29 billion coming in at $14.55 billion. However, within hours, the stock price is currently surging by 10%. Thanks to the AI boom. Through a separate statement, they announced that they will provide their database to Google starting from November. They also stated that they chose Oracle's cloud to gain additional computing capacity. It's said that Google or Microsoft are all using their own products. For example, when AI enters like this, the stock price goes up. The AI craze is hot. The quiet market capitalization of Apple in a day.

It is to raise $210 billion in just 10 days. The problem is that the stock prices are rising too much, especially in AI stocks and big tech. According to Spock Investment, six stocks with a market capitalization of over $1 trillion in the AI sector of the S&P 500 index increased by 11.5% in the second quarter. However, the remaining 494 stocks decreased by an average of 3%. Of course, AI is the main culprit. As a result, although the S&P 500 index continues to hit record highs, the stocks that have reached new highs in the S&P 500 index are only about 4%. This is the market's breadth. The market's breadth is very narrow right now. It means that there are very few stocks rising. This concentrated market will eventually lead to a decrease in concentration due to the mean reversion phenomenon. We don't know when that will happen. Mean reversion is just an average, but we don't know how long it will take. Richard Bernstein, Dan Bernstein.

Bundsutain's dance, Tsugi Busi, claims that the greatest danger is in places where capital is abundant and concentrated. It is truly the case now. He argued that there has never been a time when the concentration was higher than today or this year. Of course, if the stock prices continue to rise, the high concentration may increase further. Originally, in a bull market, when the concentration is high, it continues smoothly. Then, as it expands a bit, the market rises together, the concentration increases, and so on. Therefore, it's not a day to go up when the concentration rises. Yes. Therefore, Matt Miskin, an investment strategist at John Hancock Investments, said that there has never been a time when the market was so concentrated. However, he explained that the concentration could deepen. This is what Bespoke Investment has shown. If we look at the second quarter, the market is divided 100% based on market capitalization, with 10% each at the top.

When you look at 10%, 10%, 10%, the first 10% went up, but the rest, meaning the remaining 90%, dropped. Especially with small-cap stocks, small-cap stocks are not small. Since they are included in the SM 500 index, however, even among them, small-cap stocks dropped nearly 10% in the second quarter. Currently, the market is at an all-time high, but Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley advises focusing only on high-quality stocks in this concentrated market. He has made some retreats in pessimism but has not completely turned back with an aggressive stance. Wilson points out that in the past few months, there has been a lot of data showing lower-than-expected growth, and inflation is tilting upward. This indicates a complex situation where interest rates cannot be reduced and only high-interest rates can be maintained.

Aggressive fiscal spending is keeping the U.S. economy superficially strong, but the bad news is that the Fed is hesitant to lower interest rates due to persistently high inflation. High interest rates are putting a lot of pressure on the economy and consumption, ultimately resulting in poor performance for small-cap stocks. However, looking at the slowing employment data, we seem to be in the late stages of a classic business cycle. As growth slows down, investors are advised to invest in high-quality assets. As we go through this phase of the cycle and experience a downturn, it's important to invest in high-quality assets to survive. People may not realize this yet, but the advice is to invest in high-quality assets. When it comes to low-quality assets, the widening of stock price declines is meaningful, indicating a meaningful interest rate from the Fed.

It is argued that it is impossible until it is done, and emphasized that those with obligations should not just drop once or twice, but drop hundreds of BPs, which is meaningful. Currently, 99% of Pro small-cap companies are suffering, so it is meaningful for them to drop about 6% to 5%, not 8.75% or 88.5%. Moreover, today, there was a rumor circulating about Macron resigning, causing chaos in Europe. Not only the market but also the strength of the dollar is negative in the market. After political unrest in Europe, the dollar has been strengthening. The euro to dollar exchange rate, which used to be 1.09 dollars per euro, dropped to 1.073 today. It's almost 1 to 1. The dollar index rose by 0.11% today to 10.26. Recently, it has been dropping steadily. This is about the euro and the exchange rate. The direction with the dollar.

How will it move? Yesterday, someone asked me a question, so I organized it. Goldman Sachs expects that the US dollar will mostly maintain its recent upward momentum this year. In other words, it is said that it will essentially remain at the same level as the euro and pound over the next 12 months. It is similar to what it is now. The most important reason for Goldman Sachs is the strength of the US economy. Despite the high interest rates, the US economy is doing quite well, so it is expected that the Fed's rate hikes will not significantly erode the value of the dollar. They also added that better growth or higher asset returns in other regions of the world could lead to a weaker dollar. There are also several scenarios that could make the dollar stronger. One of the most prominent ones is the US presidential election. Depending on the election results, increased fiscal spending could lead to economic growth.

It will likely rise, and as the profitability increases, overseas investments will also grow, leading to a stronger dollar. If tariffs on countries like China are raised, it will also be a potential factor for a stronger dollar as it won't be the only one doing well. Morgan Stanley also mentioned that predictions about the decline in the value of the dollar may have been greatly exaggerated. If the Fed continues to lower interest rates, there is potential for weakness, but since it is still the dominant reserve currency, it is likely to remain strong. They also explained that factors such as central banks holding dollar assets, its role in global trade and finance, support the continued dominance of the dollar. Some argue that the increasing national debt in the U.S. is a problem, but exchange rates are relative. Morgan Stanley stated that the outlook for U.S. debt is not great, but it is not worse than Japan or Europe.

I have organized it. The debt ratio of the United States is much better than that of Japan or Europe. For example, even with the national debt ratio like that, there is hardly any possibility that the dollar will enter a weak market. We understand the concern that the dominance of the dollar may weaken, but we emphasized that this concern is not very credible. We will now take your questions. [MUSIC] [MUSIC] [MUSIC] U.S. stocks, MeNe, Ruby, Mongmung-i, Sujee School, PowerBl, Shin, Lee Kyung, Song Jiyoung, PS, Iz, Lee Youngdo, Aphrodite 999, Daisy, nice to meet you all. And our members, Sir, Lucia, 6, Drand Texas, yes, Tq, nice to meet you all. I, Producer Lee Sanghoon, will start taking questions. From now on, we will take questions from the members' perspective. Why does the House of Commons tend to speak so negatively the day before, JP?

I'm anxious. What kind of coverage did the Team House reporter do? Since they covered it, there must have been some people talking to some extent, right? Yes, I don't think there is anything to be too anxious about. It will be okay once or twice. Will it be zero? It's unlikely to stay for the third time, and zero won't come out. It might come out once or twice, then it can be considered the same. Then, if inflation and data improve again, it will be two times. In September, yes, so I don't think it will matter much. Anyway, the market is continuously going up and down, around 1.5. It's at 1.5 now. Currently, yes, and if the inflation data improves or the labor market data slows down a bit, it will go back and forth between two times. It's about long-term bonds that will come out in the future.

I am concerned about the demand. Will there be a presidential election? The FOMC minutes are not coming out. When you listen to the talk of the market, there is a strong dovish view. If inflation data that you like a little comes out for a few months, it will just go down. For example, now people may say they want to lower this, but it will go up. It's not like that at all. So, everyone is just watching to see if it doesn't rise, staying around 4.5, 4.4, 4.3. Even the 10-year bond yield will continue to fluctuate between 4 to 4.2, maybe 4.56 for a while. Until there is a stronger conviction that the rate will go down, it will keep going back and forth. Regarding NVIDIA, there is a lot of talk about it being included in the Dow Jones Index. Why is it good to be included in the Dow Jones Index? Is it similar to being listed on the KOSDAQ or KOSPI in Korea? If it is included in the Dow Jones Index, the Dow...

There are also ETFs that estimate the index. Yes, that's why those who estimate this index basically need to buy the included items. So, they need to buy, right? It's not a lot. Nowadays, most ETFs follow the S&P 500. And they estimate the NASDAQ. There are many that estimate the NASDAQ Composite Index. But there aren't that many that estimate the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Anyway, they exist. So, of course, it's good when you get included. There's absolutely nothing bad about it. However, it can be a bit bad because there's something called the curse of the Dow. When a stock is included in the Dow Jones index, the stock price usually goes down. I don't know why, but recently, even with companies like Salesforce, it's a mess after being included in the Dow Jones. So, if you get included in the Dow, there are stories like this, ominous stories. But that's what it is.

There is no basis for this, so in the past, it was like this kind of conversation, right? Yes, yes. Mr. Kim Ki-young, your answer was insufficient yesterday, so additionally, of course, the weight of the angel singer is better, but if it increased by almost 100% in just one month, it should be considered a problem, isn't it too much? Oh, a singer, right. But the thing is, yes, in just one month, 100%, that's like what, from 10 to 20 cents, 100%, yes, what is this, so if it was $50 and now it's $100, wow, that's a huge increase. But that's not it. Originally, it fluctuated between about $2 to $2.5, and then it dropped significantly to $1.5. And then now it's around $2.78, right? So, if you consider this as a range bound, and when the increase reaches this level, production will start again. The fact that production has decreased now is because the price has risen significantly, down to $1.5. So, it's not a great deal, right?

Oh, production costs aren't even covered, so who would make it? Who would produce it? People usually don't do it. If the transportation cost doesn't come out, you can just carry it. This can be done like this. So, when the price goes up, production will inevitably increase. So, if this costs $5, it will definitely have an impact on prices. But before it reaches $5, production will already be pouring out. So, everyone is thinking that there won't be a big problem. I've been saying this repeatedly, but high-priced medicine is a problem. The problem was that natural gas prices were too low. What a mess it was during the Ukraine war. Yes, aside from that, were there times when the U.S. stock market continued to rise without a downturn? Yes, there were times when it rose without a downturn. But now, the rise is.

It continued after the end of the 2008 economic recession, around March 2009, until before this pandemic hit. For about 10, 12, 13 years, it kept rising. Of course, there were some corrections, like around 10% in between. Yes, it usually happened once a year, every few months. But each time was a buying opportunity. Indeed, it was a buying opportunity. The bull market lasted for the past 13, 12 years. Why did certain sectors like the gaming and NASDAQ sectors rise selectively? Currently, those who believe that AI will provide 100% profits are buying, while those who think AI is not good are selling. Yes, because of AI, those who think it's not good are selling. Now, in terms of software, salesforce, and so on, this area was also a bit weak. Yes, but even that is now gaining more attention.

Things are changing. In some places, Salesforce is fine now. From now on, the benefits of AI will start in earnest. Some see it this way. Currently, if you deal with AI, it goes up. If you don't touch AI, it goes down. How do you view the political trends of the aristocratic investors, Europeans, Americans, and Westerners moving towards a conservative direction? In a way, this could be seen as a reaction. In the long run, initially, it went too progressive. For example, as it went too progressive, a lot of immigrants poured in, creating confusion. If you go to California, it's like a different country in the U.S. these days. In California, there are laws that only apply there. For example, you can't buy certain products in California. They have these kinds of regulations. So, California has made a lot of strange and numerous laws.

Don't do things like gender-specific toys for toys. Because of this, they just pour out strange laws like selling only gender-free toys. People seem to be very confused because they are so good at buying things. As a result, they don't enforce crimes or theft, just letting them steal. Rich people can steal a little if they want. This kind of thinking leads to an increase in homeless people. In the past, during the pandemic, in San Francisco, they gave drug syringes to homeless people and did various things. Yes, as a result, the city is now slowing down a bit. Then, there is always a reaction to this kind of thing, like a chain reaction, so it goes back to being more progressive, then back to the right, then left, back and forth. So, there should always be a change of government.

When power is too concentrated on one side, it rots. No matter how good it is, it rots. In the past, our country has experienced a lot. Long-term dictatorship is not good at all. It's really the worst now. In the world, it's unbelievable. People like Putin, Xi Jinping, or Erdogan, it's really unbelievable. Most presidents and politicians are doing wrong. The foundation is wrong. If the wrong person continues to do wrong, it gets worse. Why do they become stubborn? If you become stubborn, your ears become stubborn. I used to talk a lot with those people before, like when they were managers or executives, and we criticized a lot and talked a lot. But when that person becomes the CEO, then they should listen to the people below. If one person continues to do wrong, it gets worse.

He talks like that. Oh, when one person comes and talks, saying, You should do this, then it's not right. They say they know it themselves. So, okay, got it. But if they come back and talk again, they say they want to kill. For example, why? I know it too. Does that work? That's the thing. So, if someone talks one more time, two or three times, they want to cut it off. Yes. So, if there are too many misunderstandings in one place, it hardens. Yes. People stop listening to others and it leads to a change of power. In fact, because everyone is a thief, you have to take turns. You can't steal a lot by yourself. This used to be the theory of dialectical materialism. I actually think the world works that way. Yes, dialectical materialism. It has become stronger, and now people have reactions to that. Oh, it's too much.

If you go to the right and then to the opposite side, then come back to this side, finding a balance in the middle. In the long run, there was a question about the last scorecard. Can you drop from 3 to 1 in one go? I explained it in detail yesterday. Yes, out of 19 people, some hit 2 or more times, while others hit 2 times or less. So, now, among these 19 people, the middle value is what? It's not the average, it's the median. Because there is a median, it's about deciding among the 9 people in the middle. Some have hit 2, 3, or 4 times back and forth, but if a few more people drop, it can become 2 times.

People move one thing clearly in this direction, and people who have three meetings move it again, so if you do that, it's enough, yes, it's enough. This is the average value. Basically, if one or two people, six or seven, eight people move, it's like this, yes, it's enough. There are about ten people just with the problematic ones among the eight people now, right? Most of them have been problematic since March. You can't avoid interest rates or try at least once. There were many people like Bostonics' chairman, so you have to raise them. There are also people who can change all those people because it was before the March FMC statement and CPI data for March came out. Yes, so until February CPI data, which was temporary, but since it came out continuously for three months, everyone gave up.

It has decreased slightly, but the current situation is that it has been coming out for three consecutive months, and it was a bit in April, but we don't know what will happen in May, right? That will come out tomorrow. We will see tomorrow, so that's what I'm thinking now, and if it comes out around 0.35 tomorrow, higher than 0.18, and if it comes out as 0.4, then I will go with that, rounding up. I wish you all success in your investments. Show Me The Money.

[김현석의 월스트리트나우] CPI + FOMC 동시 발표…"지루한 회의 될 것"?

한경 특파원들이 전하는 잠들지 않는 투자 뉴스

[김현석의 월스트리트나우] CPI + FOMC 동시 발표…"지루한 회의 될 것"?

[김현석의 월스트리트나우] CPI + FOMC 동시 발표…"지루한 회의 될 것"?

Scripts