How would you classify the new world order today? So, it feels a little bit like we're back into a Cold War 2.0. We all come from a place where we were in a multipolar world with fiscal rules. And basically, from that point, we kind of made 180 degrees into a world where now, you know, what characterizes the environment we're in is: protect your domestic markets. So, you no longer want to depend on anything that relates to the other bloc. So, redefining trade routes, redefining foreign direct investments, where they go to. Now, that is a big change. China and the US, I think those two countries and those two economies are fully into that shift. And the idea is basically some form of economic and social dominance. There is a confrontation on a certain number of platforms. And the first and most important platform is the technology platform. Who has technology dominance? China has a lead on a certain number of technologies,

but the Americans probably have the lead on the most important one, which is high-end microprocessors. You know, we have a demographic issue everywhere. The way you compensate for the lack of workers, if you are a manufacturing economy, is robotics. And this is what the Chinese are doing. But when you're a service society, how do you compensate for missing workers? It has to be artificial intelligence. And this is why the Americans are putting so much money in what is central to the development of artificial intelligence, which is high-end microprocessors. A lot of money is being poured to secure those supply chains, you know, in this bloc logic. And that, you know, creates a relatively powerful economic safety net. In a bloc logic, you have less interactions between the two blocs, but you have a lot of interactions within each bloc. This is not about de-globalisation. It's more about a reorganisation of globalisation to meet, basically, this battleground.

between the two powerhouses of the world economy. It’s a competition to, you know, to win. If you're not China and if you're not the US, you kind of have two choices. Either you choose a camp, or you try to play with both sides. Europe, now, is imposing tariffs on Chinese electrical vehicles. That's the idea that they are protecting their home market. But it does feel that the Americans are going to continue to go, they're going to continue to invest, they're going to continue to train, they're going to continue to, you know, want to compete. And the big question is, will China have the means to keep up the pace? To be fair, and I'm going to be voluntarily a little bit provocative here, I don't think the election changes that much. The Americans have been very consistent. Whether it's the Trump administration or the Biden administration, they've been very consistent in treating China,

as an opponent. So, the hawkish stance towards China is something that will continue whoever becomes president in the US. But markets react to one thing: are companies making money or not? You need economic security in a world order that has changed. If you invest in the future, you will not regret it.

Cold War 2.0 | FT Rethink

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