Hong Kong's Future: From Protests to Integration

Hong Kong, once a symbol of capitalism and Western values, faces political crackdown and diminishing autonomy, prompting an exodus and potential economic impact.

### Hong Kong's Future Amid Growing Mainland China Ties and Political Crackdown
* 🇭🇰  In 2019, 1-2 million Hong Kongers protested against a proposed extradition bill, which later evolved into demands for **universal suffrage and amnesty for protesters**.
* 📜  Beijing's response included **strict pandemic control measures**, a **national security law**, and **arrests of protest leaders**, effectively **silencing opposition voices**.
* 🛫  Emigration to the UK surged, with **over 140,000 Hong Kongers moving** after the UK introduced a **special visa scheme in 2021**.
* 🛤️  Both Beijing and Hong Kong governments have promoted ties between Hong Kong and mainland China, with initiatives like the **Greater Bay Area project**.
* 💰  Many Hong Kongers are taking advantage of the vast Chinese economy, with **trips to mainland China hitting record highs**.
* 🏦  However, the crackdown on political dissent has led to a changing perception of Hong Kong, which has historically **thrived on its differences from mainland China**.
* 📉  Amid geopolitical tensions and China's economic slowdown, foreign investment in China and **IPO proceeds in Hong Kong have declined significantly**.
* 🤝  The big question is whether Beijing can continue to benefit from Hong Kong if these differences are no longer perceived as **valuable**.

This was Hong Kong in 2019. Some estimate that at their peak,
one to two million Hong Kongers turned up to protest in a city of
about seven million people. Where are they now? For years, Hong Kong showed
how capitalism and Western values could co-exist with China's
wide-ranging economic reform. Now, the protesters are gone. What happened? And what does that mean
for the city's future? Five hours from now, the Union flag will be lowered, and the flag of China will fly over Hong Kong. When Hong Kong was handed back to China after more than 150 years of British colonial rule, Beijing promised a high degree of autonomy in its economic and political systems for 50 years. The city cemented its status
as an international financial hub and one of the world's freest economies,
bolstered by its rule of law, a free Internet and press, and a currency pegged to the US dollar. It was the world's gateway to China's
extraordinary industrial boom.

But at the same time, tension had been simmering between Beijing and Hong Kong's political opposition, which wanted to expand civil liberties. We want democracy! Universal suffrage now! Beijing continued to resist allowing Hong Kongers the right to choose their own leaders. And then in 2019, Hong Kong proposed a bill to allow people to be extradited to mainland China to be tried. And that triggered concerns that Beijing could use this legislation to clamp down on political dissent in Hong Kong. Although protests began peacefully, the government's unwillingness to completely withdraw the bill caused demonstrations to escalate. The demands from protesters morphed from just trying to prevent this bill from going through to demanding amnesty for protesters that had been arrested and calls for universal suffrage. The movement continued through 2020, until - The government decided to roll out very strict pandemic control measures that essentially made it impossible to gather in large groups. Within months, Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law

which punishes what Chinese authorities
describe as secession, subversion, terrorism, and “collusion with foreign and external forces.” It also asserts broad powers
to control sources of opposition. Authorities then began to arrest people that they alleged were instrumental
in the protests, and they also made it essentially impossible
for Hong Kong's opposition parties to continue operating. That also led to the shutdown
of several pro-democracy outlets, including Jimmy Lai's newspaper Apple Daily. It was just too much for some. Since I left Hong Kong, I witnessed my friends from my industry, including theater actors, visual artists,
got arrested or got charged. I felt really scared, and I felt this place is trying to expel its own people. Jarita and her husband left Hong Kong in 2019, and now live and work in the UK. Some of her students are among
the more than 140,000 Hong Kongers who emigrated to the UK after it rolled out a special visa scheme in 2021.

Meanwhile, Beijing revamped the body that picks members of Hong Kong's Legislative Council to make sure only pro-China candidates can secure a seat. Effectively, that meant that Hong Kong's government no longer had an opposition. And in March this year, Hong Kong introduced its own security legislation. New crimes like treason and insurrection carry life sentences. The threat to national security is real. So it is important we all bear that in mind, to be on guard all the time. But it wasn't just increased restriction on free speech and expression bringing Hong Kong closer to the mainland. Governments on both sides introduced programs to encourage Hong Kongers to study, work, and live in mainland China and vice versa. Transport links have improved to support this. In 2017, President Xi Jinping unveiled the Greater Bay Area development project, an effort to integrate Hong Kong with Macau, Shenzhen, and nearby cities, starting with expanded infrastructure. Things like the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge

as well as the West Kowloon Station, which is integrated into Hong Kong's own subway and allows people to travel in less than 20 minutes from the city to Shenzhen. And trips to mainland China hit record highs earlier this year. Some are embracing the growing ties. Born and raised in Hong Kong, 26-year-old Kaka took a job in Shenzhen after finishing her Master’s. Now she's working on starting her own business in mainland China. With access to Chinese apps like WeChat and Alipay, Hong Kongers can now easily make transactions on the mainland, and it's dining and shopping that make up 70% of them. Chinese consumer review platforms like Dianping and Xiaohongshu, or RED, where users primarily post in Chinese, also help Hong Kongers navigate Shenzhen. To Kaka, all of this means that she can take advantage of the vastness of China's economy. The dilemma for Beijing is that the crackdown on political dissent has meant that people increasingly

view Hong Kong as similar to mainland China. It's its differences
that have really secured and underpinned the success of Hong Kong for many, many years, particularly its success as a financial hub. Change in perception is important for everyone, particularly against a backdrop
of geopolitical tensions and a significant economic slowdown
on the mainland. Foreign businesses’ direct investment
into China last year slumped  to levels not seen since the early 1990s  as trade frictions between Beijing and the US and its allies rose. Or look at the proceeds raised
by companies through an IPO in Hong Kong. They are at their lowest
in more than two decades. Hong Kong also lost its title of world's freest economy. Beijing needs Hong Kong  so Chinese companies can raise money without tight capital controls, and it still has some of the deepest
capital markets in Asia, but One big question is whether Beijing is still getting everything that it needs from Hong Kong if there is a perception that these differences are no longer

valuable to people, particularly to foreign investors. Officials see things differently. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee has said the city's status as a financial center is highly stable, with 75% of the world's top 100 banks operating there. Some are optimistic for Hong Kong's future, despite uncertainties in the short term. But for people like Jarita, leaving the city for good was the answer to her discontent. If I stay in Hong Kong, maybe I will still have a good career. But it's better that I leave because I don't want myself to be change. I don't see a future that I like, for me, in Hong Kong.

How China Is Remaking Hong Kong in Its Own Image

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The mass protests in Hong Kong, driven by a desire for autonomy and civil liberties, have subsided.

Beijing's resistance to democratic reforms and the extradition bill sparked the demonstrations.

The implementation of a national security law and pandemic control measures has effectively quashed the protest movement and raised concerns about the city's future.

The Impact of Chinese Authorities' Crackdown on Hong Kong

The Chinese authorities have implemented a harsh security law targeting secession, subversion, terrorism, and collusion with foreign forces, leading to the arrest of pro-democracy figures and the shutdown of opposition parties and media outlets.

The crackdown has caused a wave of emigration from Hong Kong, with over 140,000 people relocating to the UK, while Beijing has restructured the Legislative Council to eliminate opposition and introduced new security legislation with severe penalties.

This has resulted in increased restrictions on free speech and expression, as well as government-led efforts to integrate Hong Kong with mainland China, including improved transport links and development projects.

The Impact of Growing Ties Between Hong Kong and Mainland China

The integration of the West Kowloon Station has significantly reduced travel time between Hong Kong and Shenzhen.

Hong Kongers are increasingly embracing the ties with mainland China, utilizing Chinese apps for transactions and relying on Chinese consumer platforms.

The changing perception of Hong Kong, driven by political crackdowns and economic tensions, is impacting its role as a financial hub for China.

Despite the government's confidence in Hong Kong's stability as a financial center, some, like Jarita, are choosing to leave the city due to a lack of optimism about its future.

Hong Kong is home to 75% of the world's top 100 banks, but there are uncertainties looming in the short term.

Jarita made the decision to leave in order to maintain her sense of self and pursue a more promising future elsewhere.