Deterioration of Sino-Indian Relations: Recent History and Tensions

Amid deteriorating Sino-Indian relations, Modi's warm response to Taiwan sparks tensions with China, reflecting shifting public opinion and economic concerns.

### Understanding the Recent Deterioration in Sino-Indian Relations
* 🇮🇳 After Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reelection, he responded positively to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's President, sparking an **angry reaction from China**. Despite India officially adhering to Beijing's One China policy, this move was seen as a **violation by the CCP**.
* 🇨🇳 Sino-Indian relations have always been strained by two main factors: an ongoing border dispute and **China's close relationship with Pakistan**. The two countries have fought multiple wars over the border, and India is uncomfortable with **China's support for Pakistan**.
* 📈 Sino-Indian relations peaked in early 2015 when bilateral trade was growing, and Modi was pursuing a **more independent foreign policy**. However, relations began to deteriorate in the latter half of the 2010s, with incidents like the **2017 Doklam standoff**.
* 💰 India is increasingly concerned about its growing economic dependence on China, as it imports more high-tech manufactured goods from China. Modi's focus on industrial policy puts India in **economic competition with China**.
* 🇹🇼 India has developed **strong commercial ties with Taiwan**, as it seeks to develop a domestic semiconductor industry and provide an **alternative to China**. Taiwanese companies are investing in India, and an agreement was signed to bring **Indian workers to Taiwan**.
* 🇺🇸 India has been moving closer to the US as a security guarantor against China and due to the **deepening economic relationship**. Despite efforts to deescalate the border conflict, both sides have been **unable to resolve the issue**.
* 📉 The most significant reason for the recent deterioration in Sino-Indian relations is the **shift in Indian public opinion**. A Pew Research Center survey showed that two-thirds of Indians now hold an **unfavorable view of China**, largely due to the **border skirmishes**. Modi's pivot away from China is seen as a politically savvy move to **align with public opinion** and **strengthen his support** after a **weak electoral showing**.

this video is brought to you by skillshare. After Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's re-election earlier this month, world leaders rushed to X to congratulate him. Last time Modi was reelected in 2019, China's President Xi Jinping was actually one of the first to congratulate him, and actually did so before the official result had even been announced. This time, however, she didn't congratulate Modi himself, and instead got his Premier Lee Chang to do it nearly two weeks late. But perhaps even more notably, Modi himself responded effusively to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's recently elected President Li Ching T, saying that he looked forward to closer ties between Taiwan and India. While India officially adheres to Beijing's One China policy, and Modi conspicuously refrained from using the words Taiwan or President, this was still enough to provoke an angry reaction from the CCP. China's Foreign Ministry warned that Modi's comments were a violation of the One China policy and insisted that

India was obliged to resist the Taiwan authori political calculations. All this is a symptom of a wider deterioration in relations between India and China recently. So in this video, we thought we'd take a look at the history of the two countries' relationship and why things have been going downhill recently despite showing tentative signs of improvement only a few years ago. Before we start, if you haven't already, please consider subscribing, subbing, and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos. So let's start with a bit of context. Despite strong economic relations, China is currently India's largest trading partner. Sino-Indian relations have always been strained by two things: an ongoing border dispute and China's close relationship with Pakistan. When it comes to the border dispute, China and India disagree over the territorial status of Aksai Chin, an area administered by China as part of Xinjiang, and Arunachal Pradesh, an area administered by India. The two sides have fought multiple wars over the border.

including most notably the Sino-Indian War of 1962. There have been multiple skirmishes more recently, but in 1996, the two sides signed an agreement banning military weapons and explosives along the border. Which means that today the skirmishes are fought with improvised weapons like iron rods and barbed bats. India also doesn't like China's close relationship with Pakistan. Context: China and Pakistan have enjoyed a remarkably friendly relationship ever since they established diplomatic ties in 1951 when Pakistan became one of the first countries to sever relations with the ROC government in Taiwan in favor of the PRC. China has long provided Pakistan with significant amounts of military and economic assistance, while Pakistan has been one of China's staunchest diplomatic allies, providing support over issues like Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan. And the CCP have long dreamt of building an oil pipeline through Pakistan to resolve their dependence on vulnerable maritime imports. However, the main motivation for both countries is that the relationship acts as a geopolitical hedge against India, something India is understandably

uncomfortable with a few years ago. Though it looked like Sino-India relations were on the up, Sino-India relations arguably peaked in early 2015 when bilateral trade was ballooning, and both sides were engaged in a diplomatic charm offensive after Modi's first election. In part because Modi was willing to pursue a more independent foreign policy than his predecessors. At the time, Pew polling suggested the Indians had the most positive view of China of basically any large country. Sino-Indian relations then faltered in the latter half of the 2010s, largely thanks to an uptick in violence among the Border, including the 2017 Doklam standoff. But there had been tentative signs of reproach me in the last couple of years. At last year's BRICS Summit, for instance, Modi and Xi agreed to attempt a de-escalation of the Border standoff, and China's Ambassador Post in New Delhi, which had sat vacant for 18 months, was finally filled in May. However, in the past few months or so, Sino-Indian relations have once again

deteriorated, as evidenced by the Taiwan feror. This is for at least five reasons. First, while China and India do a lot of trade like many other countries, India is increasingly concerned about its growing economic dependence on China. China India imports significantly more from China than it exports to China, and India's exports are mostly stuff like food and primary goods, while China's exports to high-tech manufactured goods like phones, solar panels, and electric vehicles. Under Modi, India is also getting more interested in industrial policy, but this puts it in implicit competition with China economically because industrial policy usually focuses on developing manufacturing industries that China often dominates. Second, India has developed increasingly strong commercial ties with Taiwan, largely because India wants to develop a domestic semiconductor industry and offers an alternative home for Apple, which is currently trying to extricate itself from China. Taiwan's Power Chip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp or PSMC is currently building a chip-making plant in Modi's home state of Garat, while Taiwanese manufacturing giant and iPhone manufacturer Foxconn has recently

expanded its manufacturing base in India in February. India also signed an agreement to bring Indian migrant workers to Taiwan to ease the Island's long-standing labor shortage. Third, despite a brief hiccup late last year when the US accused an Indian official of trying to assassinate a US citizen, India has been moving closer to the US. This is in part a reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions. India sees the US as the most effective security guarantor against both China specifically, but also the more general geopolitical chaos we're seeing across the world at the moment. But it's also a consequence of the deepening economic relationship between India and the US. For context, bilateral trade has steadily increased over the past couple of years, and America temporarily overtook China as India's largest trading partner in 2023. Fourth, the two sides have been unable to deescalate the border conflict. Both sides have stopped reporting the skirmishes as publicly as they once did, but in January, India admitted that there were at least two violent incidents in 2022. And a couple of months ago, India

deployed another 10,000 troops to the area after accusing China of building military infrastructure along the border. But the fifth, and perhaps most important reason, is the shift in Indian public opinion. As we mentioned a second ago, in 2015, Indians were pretty pro-China, with just a one-third minority of Indians expressing an unfavorable opinion of China. Today, however, the polling has flipped. A Pew Research Center survey published in 2023 indicates that two-thirds of Indians now hold an unfavorable view of China, making India the only middle-income country where a majority has unfavorable views of China. This has a lot to do with the border skirmishes, which are obviously widely covered in India and have really hurt China's image with ordinary Indians. In this light, Modi's recent pivot away from China should be seen as a reflection of public opinion and a politically savvy move to shore up his support after a relatively weak showing at the ballot box a week or so ago. We announced that we're working on a physical magazine.

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Why China-India Relations Have Fallen to New Lows

TLDR News Global

The Complex Relationship Between India and China

World leaders rushed to congratulate Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on his recent re-election, with notable differences in China's response compared to the previous election.

Modi's positive response to Taiwan's President provoked a strong reaction from the CCP, leading to a deterioration in India-China relations.

The strained relationship is influenced by an ongoing border dispute and China's alliance with Pakistan, despite strong economic ties between the two countries.

The Complex Relationship Between China, India, and Pakistan

The Sino-Indian War of 1962 and subsequent skirmishes have shaped the tense relationship between the two countries.

China and Pakistan have maintained a strong alliance, with China providing military and economic aid, while Pakistan supports China on various diplomatic issues.

The fluctuating Sino-Indian relations have seen periods of growth, but also tension, especially due to border standoffs, with recent attempts at de-escalation.

The Impact of Taiwan's Relations on the Economic Dynamics Between China, India, and the US

India's growing economic dependence on China is causing concern, as it imports significantly more than it exports, leading to implicit competition with China's dominance in manufacturing.

India is strengthening commercial ties with Taiwan to develop its domestic semiconductor industry and reduce dependence on China, attracting Taiwanese companies and migrant workers.

The escalating geopolitical tensions and deepening economic relationship between India and the US are driving India closer to the US as a security guarantor against China, leading to a shift in bilateral trade partnerships.

India has deployed 10,000 additional troops due to accusations of China's military infrastructure along the border.

The shift in Indian public opinion, with two-thirds now holding an unfavorable view of China, has led to Modi's pivot away from China.

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