One of the top priorities for China's President Xi Jinping is food security. However, this year, due to record rainfall in China, there are significant disruptions expected in food production. As a result, Chinese authorities are busy formulating measures amid rising tensions. The issue is that if there are problems with the food supply for 1.4 billion Chinese people, it could immediately pose a crisis for regime security, which has put the Chinese Communist Party on high alert. The New York Times has investigated the food security situation in China, which is in a precarious state. 

As of now, the New York Times reports that the record rainfall has caused enormous damage to crop production, significantly shaking the Chinese leadership. It also noted that prices for various agricultural products have skyrocketed, prompting the authorities to enter a state of emergency to stabilize the situation. At the end of August, due to the enormous rainfall, areas approximately 290 kilometers away from Beijing were severely affected.

As the city of Suzhou was completely flooded, all the crops that had been cultivated there were ultimately discarded. In this way, China has experienced floods nationwide due to unusual weather patterns, which have had a tremendous impact on crop production. Consequently, the prices of many vegetables across China have surged by up to 40%, reaching their highest levels in five years. This has affected the wallets of the people, who are already struggling with a slowing economy. In fact, ensuring that the 1.4 billion population in China can sustain themselves is the primary goal of the Chinese Communist Party and a key policy point for President Xi Jinping. This year, Xi's first document focused on the three rural issues, which pertain to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, demonstrating a significant emphasis on achieving food self-sufficiency. In January of this year, the State Council of China addressed food security.

The local government and rural communities have been ordered to ensure that grain production does not fall below a minimum level to prevent a large-scale poverty crisis. Furthermore, in President Xi Jinping's theoretical documents, it is stated that the national grain production for 2024 must be maintained at over 650 million tons. This highlights the significance of food security as the most pressing issue for the Chinese Communist Party. Despite the importance of food security, this year, the situation has been exacerbated by natural disasters, leading to a serious crisis. In response, Xi Jinping held an emergency cabinet meeting at the end of July to discuss the public's suffering caused by flooding. During this meeting, Xi instructed that agricultural losses must be minimized and food security ensured. The problem is that the food supply chain disruptions caused by extreme weather events, such as the recent floods, have already surpassed the capacity of the Chinese authorities to resolve them. In this regard, The New York Times has reported that China is already facing food shortages.

China has entered a crisis stage regarding security. It is already the world's largest food importer, needing to feed nearly one-sixth of the global population with less than ten percent of the world's land, which is shrinking and devastated due to fertilizer use and pollution. The New York Times reported that, in this situation, as more generations migrate for better wages, the number of farmers is gradually decreasing. This suggests that China's food security is inevitably facing greater crises. However, in this context, nature has not been kind to China. The country's leadership announced in August that this year has seen more river flooding than any other year since records began in 1998. Additionally, China has recorded the hottest temperatures since at least 1961. Darin Friedrichs, head of agricultural market research at Stony Agri Consulting, stated that the National Disaster Management Department of China reported in July.

Due to natural disasters, losses exceeding 10 billion dollars have been reported, with approximately 90% of these losses attributed to typhoons and floods. It is estimated that around 6 million acres of crops have been damaged. As a result, food prices across China have skyrocketed. Last month, consumers in northern and eastern China expressed their dissatisfaction with the prices of basic vegetables such as eggplant, kidney beans, and cucumbers, stating that they are too expensive to purchase. The New York Times reported that when the prices of essential food items rise, consumers are forced to cut back on spending in other areas, ultimately leading to a contraction of the Chinese economy. The New York Times also diagnosed the current food supply issue as serious, indicating that China is already facing enormous challenges. The Chinese Communist Party is aware of this situation. Since Xi Jinping took power in 2012, they have been cognizant of these issues.

He stated that not addressing food security could lead to terrible consequences and warned against becoming complacent with stable grain production levels. Since Xi Jinping issued these directives, ensuring food supply has become part of his political brand. Xi Jinping has also declared that it is essential to revitalize rural areas to establish a stable agricultural foundation over the years. This is crucial because if the prices of basic commodities rise sharply or if there is a shortage in supply, the entire Chinese society could fall into turmoil. There are reasons why Xi Jinping places such importance on food issues. Historically, China's water distribution is uneven; the south is vulnerable to floods while the north is susceptible to summer droughts. Therefore, the Chinese government focuses on the major rivers in the south.

We have made significant investments in approximately 8,000 water resource conservation projects across the country, including efforts to redirect excess water to the north. The problem is that due to climate change, these patterns are changing, rendering many of our previous efforts ineffective. Additionally, urban flood control is sometimes carried out in a very political manner. In other words, to prevent urban flooding, there are instances where floods are intentionally induced in rural areas. Furthermore, when rivers overflow, political considerations often take precedence in deciding which areas will be sacrificed, leaving rural regions to face even greater damage. However, what the Xi Jinping administration truly fears is that food shortages in China could create widespread unrest throughout society. Professor Yang Haiyin from Shizuoka University in Japan also pointed out this concern, emphasizing the implications of Deng Xiaoping's policies.

A friend once said that Chinese people are easy to manage, stating that as long as there is enough food, the Chinese populace would not rebel or challenge the Chinese government. Professor Yang Hai further mentioned the reasons behind this belief. He noted that while they claim to have resolved the poverty issue, it seems they are aware that the grain-producing regions do not have an abundance of food. He also pointed out that, following the Russia-Ukraine war, a global food shortage is expected, which could lead to a domestic crisis. 

Another issue is that while living costs are rising, rural incomes are not sufficient to maintain livelihoods. As a result, many rural residents are flocking to cities. These migrant workers essentially live in difficult conditions, often not treated as people within China. Their migration to cities has created a labor shortage in rural areas, making Xi Jinping's goal of increasing food production seem like a distant dream.

The situation is becoming increasingly dire. In China, it is said that if the prices of beans and pork rise significantly, riots could break out. This reflects the fact that these are staple foods for the Chinese people and common items on their dining tables, which is why such statements are made. Chinese people are deeply concerned about issues related to food and livelihood. Therefore, the Chinese government must ensure that the people have no shortages in their basic needs. In other words, from China's perspective, it is unacceptable for the prices of agricultural products to rise or for supply and demand to become unstable. First, rising grain prices can heighten the public's anxiety about their basic living conditions. Furthermore, if the instability in the supply of agricultural products leads to supply shortages, it could have a tremendous ripple effect on the Chinese government, which is why they are on high alert. Thus, the Chinese government has no choice but to bring up the issue of food security once again.

It is a fact that China's food supply structure is such that it could quickly fall into crisis without American agricultural exports. Therefore, one of the important reasons China can never go to war with the United States is that if a war breaks out and American agricultural exports are halted, there could be food shortages in China that might lead the Chinese people to overthrow the Chinese Communist Party regime. Given this situation, it is serious that, despite President Xi Jinping emphasizing food security and trying to increase self-sufficiency, the self-sufficiency rate is not rising; rather, it is decreasing. This highlights the severity of the problem. The importance of this food security issue can be seen in an article on the front page of the People's Daily on February 18, 2022. It stated that the supply of primary products is a critical strategic issue, emphasizing that the Chinese people's rice bowl must always be firmly in their own hands.

The rice bowl should primarily contain Chinese cuisine. This was emphasized, stating that under no circumstances should others tighten their grip around our necks regarding the issue of food, which is fundamentally a matter of survival. It was mentioned that there should be no slackness in food security, highlighting Xi Jinping's remarks. In China, the issue of food security is directly linked to the stability of the regime. From this perspective, food issues are the Achilles' heel of the Xi Jinping administration. China is the world's largest food importer, and the country from which China imports the most food is the United States. Given this situation, it is impossible for China to assert global dominance while clashing with the U.S. This is noteworthy. If the U.S. were to use food as a weapon, what would happen to China? This is precisely why Xi Jinping cannot afford to confront the U.S. head-on. This was an analysis of the international situation by Watase. Thank you.

[Why Times 정세분석 2897] 위기에 빠진 중국의 식량안보, 비상걸린 시진핑 (2024.9.4)

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