Global Markets: Economic Indicators and Big Tech Stocks Decline

The market indicators show a trend towards a potential recession, with significant declines in bond yields and poor performance in various sectors.

### Market Analysis: Manufacturing PMI, Interest Rates, and Tech Stocks
* 🏭 The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for July came in at **46.8**, significantly lower than the expected **48**, indicating a **contraction in the manufacturing sector**.
* 📉 This weaker-than-expected PMI figure has led to a significant drop in bond yields, with the **10-year yield falling below 4% for the first time since February**.
* 💰 The market is now pricing in a **15.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September**, reflecting **increased expectations for more aggressive monetary policy easing**.
* 🤖 Meta (formerly Facebook) reported **strong Q2 earnings**, with revenue **up 22%** and earnings per share exceeding expectations at **$5.16**.
* 👀 Analysts are optimistic about Meta's future, particularly in **AI-driven advertising revenue**, with Evercore ISI noting that **AI is already contributing to profitability**.
* 💼 CEO Mark Zuckerberg's strategic investments in AI and data centers are seen as positive moves, with the company increasing its **2021 capex forecast to $37-40 billion**.
* 📊 Other tech giants like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are also performing well, with the tech sector showing **resilience despite macroeconomic challenges**.
* 🇺🇸 The upcoming U.S. employment report for July is now even more critical, as the Fed emphasizes the **dual mandate of employment and inflation** in its policy decisions.

### Market Analysis: Tech Earnings and Semiconductor Sector Performance
* 💼 Meta's positive earnings report, driven by **upcoming LLaMA 4 launch**, boosts cloud-based companies' **outlook and market sentiment**.
* 🏦 Arm Holdings' weaker performance outlook due to semiconductor market challenges, including **decreased EV sales** and **home appliance demand**.
* 💉 Moderna's disappointing earnings, reflecting **reduced COVID-19 vaccine demand** and **competitive challenges** in other drug markets.
* 🚗 Volkswagen's struggling operating profit margin, highlighting **legacy automakers' difficulties in the EV market**.
* 🍎 Apple and Amazon's upcoming earnings reports, with Wall Street **cautiously optimistic** about their performance and guidance.
* 💻 NVIDIA's declining stock price, possibly influenced by **overall market volatility** and **profit-taking after recent gains**.
* 📉 General market trends, including **declining bond yields**, **falling cryptocurrency prices**, and **red indices across the board**.
* 🔮 Upcoming economic events, such as the **US non-farm payroll report** and **oil company earnings releases**, shaping market expectations for the near future.

'뚝' 떨어진 채권금리ㅣ7월 ISM 제조업 PMI '예상 하회'ㅣ확인된 고용 냉각ㅣ실적(ARM, 모더나, 폭스바겐, 크록스)ㅣ애플·아마존 실적 관전 포인트

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Volatile Oil and Gold Prices Amid Middle East Tensions

Oil prices are surging, driven by tensions in the Middle East, including attacks on Iran and the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, leading to a rapid increase in gold prices as well.

The situation is causing concern about the potential outbreak of war and is impacting the global economy.

The rise in oil prices is influenced by a decrease in U.

crude oil inventory, fast consumption rate, and the expectation of continued measures to reduce oil production, but the market is also affected by the weakening manufacturing sector in China, with the Caixin Manufacturing PMI falling below 50 for the first time in nine months, indicating a potential prolonged economic downturn.

Global Economic Downturn and Central Bank Actions

The real estate sector is collapsing, and the US, European, and global manufacturing industries are struggling, while China's downturn adds to the economic challenges.

The Bank of England unexpectedly lowered interest rates, with a split decision, in response to the need for inflation stabilization.

The global trend of central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, shifting towards gradual interest rate adjustments, is influenced by cautiousness towards inflation and a focus on the job market.

The US manufacturing sector is showing a slowdown, as indicated by the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropping below 50, reflecting concerns about a possible recession.

The Current State of Bond Yields and Economic Indicators

The 2BP has dropped to 4%, with a consistent rate of decline, while the 2-year bond has decreased by 10.

S&P Global comments suggest that easing cost pressures for companies may lead to a further moderation in inflation, potentially prompting the Fed to consider interest rate cuts.

Unemployment claims have significantly increased, reaching the highest levels in years, indicating a potential cooling of the labor market and supporting the case for interest rate cuts.

Meta Leads Market Surge with 11% Increase

Meta's market capitalization reaches 2-3 trillion, rising by 11%, while Nvidia and Microsoft also experience significant growth.

Meta's exceptional performance is driven by a 22% increase in revenue and strong guidance on AI's revenue generation.

The ISM manufacturing index reports significant declines in new orders, production, and employment, raising concerns about a potential recession and leading to expectations of a rapid interest rate cut.

Market Trends: Stock, Bond, and Meta Analysis

The stock market is slightly down, with a decrease in the Dow Jones index, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are holding up well due to strong earnings.

The bond market is experiencing significant declines in yields, and the dollar index gains have also decreased.

Meta's investment spending on AI has increased by 33%, with a raised annual capital expenditure forecast.

Mark Zuckerberg's leadership and the company's focus on boosting advertising revenue and retaining users are contributing to positive market evaluations.

The market is showing a more optimistic outlook for the future, particularly for cloud-based companies like Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft.

Decline in Semiconductor Stocks and Export Regulation Concerns

Arm Holdings experiences a sharp 11% decline, with a weak outlook for the next quarter, attributed to a decrease in semiconductor shipment volume and a slowdown in product sales.

The company's focus on royalty business and the impact of export regulations on Huawei's licensing revenue have raised market concerns.

Qualcomm, despite positive performance and a good revenue forecast, faces stock drops due to worries about the impact of export regulations and the potential decline in licensing revenue from Huawei.

The overall decline in semiconductor stocks, except for Nvidia, and the reduction in international bond yield, are contributing to the instability in the market.

Market Volatility and Company Performances

The bond market is experiencing significant movement, with the 10-year yield dropping and the VIX rising.

Moderna's second-quarter revenue has decreased by 37%, leading to a lowered sales forecast, while the competition in the vaccine market and slow drug development are impacting the company's stock prices.

Carvana has shown a remarkable turnaround, reporting a net profit in the second quarter and providing positive guidance for future earnings, leading to a significant rise in stock prices.

Semiconductor stocks and major indices like Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 are all facing declines, indicating overall market volatility.

Volkswagen's Struggles and Future Challenges

Volkswagen's operating profit margin has dropped, especially for its mass-market car brands, and the company is facing challenges in China and the electric vehicle market.

The company has lowered its cash flow forecast and announced a significant investment in Libya, leading to concerns about its financial situation.

The struggles with electric vehicle sales are further highlighted by the success of companies like BYD, raising questions about Volkswagen's competitiveness in the market.

Anticipated Releases and Financial Performance of Apple and Amazon

- There is anticipation and curiosity surrounding the potential release of iOS 18 and its impact on Apple's service revenue, with a generally positive evaluation from Wall Street, including the possibility of exceeding performance expectations.

- Amazon is expected to report a significant increase in net revenue, driven by continuous investment in AI, robotics, and advertising, with a focus on AWS's growth and a strong emphasis on its delivery logistics and expansion of investments.

- The company's performance and future outlook, as well as the impact of their business strategies on sales and revenue, are the key points of interest in both Apple and Amazon's upcoming conference calls, with Wall Street remaining optimistic about their prospects.

Boeing's stock is fluctuating after the CEO change, while oil companies, Tesla, and major banks are all experiencing significant declines.

The overall market is in a negative state, with only gold and the VIX rising, indicating instability.

Coinbase is also down, facing challenges in the current market conditions.

Hershey's stock initially dropped but recovered slightly after a disappointing earnings report, while Crocs is down over 5% due to slowing sales increase.

The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones are all bearish, with the latter dropping significantly.