I think the US will raise interest rates a bit, so I'm going to significantly increase my investment in Korea now. What to increase? Right now, when the KOSPI is fluctuating around 2,750, I will continue to focus on semiconductors and secondary batteries. In terms of the internet, non-businesses are dominant for now. Overwhelmingly number one. So many people are wondering how far this will go, but I see long-term trends very positively. It's not just wishful thinking. If you look at this chart, you can see that performance will level up until 2026, with expectations of additional orders and growth, leading to an amplified increase in stock prices. However, what requires some consideration is, as shown in the chart below, looking at quarterly performance, the second quarter of this year was the peak, and the performance in the second half of the year is slightly decreasing.

I am thinking that now is the time when we need a little consideration about whether we can go up strongly. When you look at this picture, many people agree that the stock prices have risen a lot this year, but no one paid attention to them in July, August, September, and October last year. So, as I mentioned earlier, at this point, we should pay attention to things that are not being looked at, as opportunities for profit arise. If you look here, the stock price of the machinery industry, which was about 150 points in July, broke 1,000 points in mid-October and at the end of October. It was like, What's going on? But from there, it went up to 10,000 points, almost a 50% increase. However, it is changing trend-wise now, and it is becoming quite firm in the mid-term trend. But as I mentioned earlier, if you look at the quarterly performance, the second quarter...

It's at the peak. Secondly, looking at the monthly chart, 10,000 points and 1,700 points are in a very important resistance level. In such a situation, the trading volume is not getting stronger, and as shown below, even on the weekly chart, it's a very solid upward trend, around 1,600. So, can it break through and go up? If it breaks through, it could go up. However, usually when this happens, it's called overheating, and there could be a short-term overshooting. So, even if it continues to rise from this level, if it comes down about 150 points, maybe it's time to accumulate. The machinery sector is becoming quite solid in terms of medium to long-term trends, but after rising more than 50% in the short term, a correction is needed. After the correction,

Since there could be pictures going up again, consider the process of going back as a buying opportunity. It feels burdensome to chase and buy in a situation where it is already over 1500. Those with a high proportion of stocks might think it's appropriate to trim a little. They say it's another beneficiary of AI momentum, saying that the demand for electricity can only increase, so stocks related to power facilities have surged tremendously. I mentioned the machinery sector, but within that, there are stocks with even higher growth rates. I think it's a plausible story. If 2026 and 2027 are expected to be very strong, I also believe that industries related to that will rise. However, considering the current price levels, hasn't it already priced in a lot of it? Typically, this is how.

Let's go with the flow. Expectations rose high, but what should follow next is showing the performance. For example, last year, secondary batteries skyrocketed. The story it holds now isn't much. The plan presented by Posco Holdings is still valid. But why is the stock price plummeting here? It's because they couldn't show the numbers. This is a common story. Usually, in such narratives, regardless of performance, if storytelling is done, the stock price shoots up. Then they ask to show the numbers. Hey, I've come this far. Now, it's time to show the performance. But most companies have nothing to show in terms of performance because they have risen too much. This is because companies like Posco Holdings need to wait until the fourth quarter of this year when the secondary battery factory is first cleared. So, during this time,

Ignoring that and going up, so if you can't show your performance, the market won't go up more. If you keep saying you can't show your performance for the rest of your life, it becomes a forgotten stock. For example, just like the Metaverse a few years ago in 2021 was amazing, but how is the stock price now? No one will remember. Yes, that's the trend. So now, in the power equipment sector, it's the same. The performance is good, and the orders are good too. However, even though the market has risen as much as expected from a good picture, there will be some adjustments. But if the slope that meets expectations comes out as much as expected, it will undergo short-term adjustments and rise again. If this slope cannot rise and stops, there may be a longer period of adjustment or period adjustment. It's right to see it as such. For the parts that have risen a lot now, some retracement is inevitable. In terms of performance levels, that is, the 2nd quarter, 3rd quarter, 4th quarter.

It is a very crucial time to see how the outlook for next year's performance is changing. So, when I look at the performance I mentioned before, the performance of the machinery industry seems very good. However, there are still questions about the performance in the second half of this year. Therefore, it is wise to be a bit cautious now and not too late to check and respond to the second-quarter performance. It would be good to confirm a bit more about whether the guidance for the second half of the year is being adjusted based on the second-quarter performance, and how the guidance for next year's performance is being given, whether it is being adjusted upwards or downwards in terms of performance. When ValuePro was first mentioned, retail distribution surged, utilities skyrocketed, and cheap stocks all soared. But now, many investors know that the essence of the value-up program lies not in the PBR evaluation but in the shareholder-friendly policies.

The key is whether you can do it. So, if you think there are only banks and cars left, then it's okay to draw a line at 12 months. However, after the earnings season passes, the trend of upward adjustments stops or slightly bends. Looking at the foreign investment flow, banks and insurance companies have been selling some profits from the flow they bought all along, while securities companies have paused a bit and are buying again, and car companies have sold and are buying again, but they are not buying as aggressively as before. Why? If you look at the chart, although the car industry is rebounding, it is close to the upper range of the box zone now. What level is the upper range of the box zone? It reflects the expectation that all tax policies could be announced. Have all the tax policies been announced yet? No, they haven't. Then it seems difficult to break through the upper range for the time being. So, I suggest buying when it comes down a bit.

I'm going to say that there is no reason to break the bottom. There is disappointment that there will be no benefits at the bottom. However, recently, there have been discussions about preparing for benefits at the bottom, and even if the value program falls short of market expectations, it is still moving forward step by step. So, even though it is thought that the top and bottom are blocked, currently, both the automotive and financial sectors are somewhat close to the top. Therefore, from a foreign perspective, there is a bit of a weak driving force to actively break through and rise. That's why I see the automotive and financial sectors positively, but it's a bit difficult to jump in now because they have risen a lot. For those who already have a lot, it may be better to wait for a bit of a correction before buying. Let's respond to the box range fluctuations. I keep saying to be cautious in the short term. If you fall behind, buy.

I'm thinking that the car will probably exceed in the fourth quarter. Because even without the value-up program, the Georgia factory will be completed in the quarter, so the Ioniq 7 will be produced. Then, the proportion of electric car sales will increase, so electric cars will receive more valuation. Next year, they will receive security damages. With these pictures in mind, I think that cars can go up regardless of the value program. Then, I will ask another question. How about facing Trump? Even if facing Trump, it will go up because the current car valuation is five times higher. It's too cheap. Why is it so cheap? It's because there are still too many internal combustion engine sales, so they are discounted. This applies not only to Korean cars, but also to all.

Volkswagen is receiving a lot of attention. But what did Trump say? He mentioned that he would get rid of electric cars in the U.S. So, what will happen? The premium-valued electric cars will normalize a bit, and the discounted internal combustion engine cars will go up. Therefore, I think that in the fourth quarter, cars may go up. Also, the value-up program will continue to progress, so a picture attempting to break through the peak is emerging. To clearly surpass the peak, as shown below on page 7, insurance, banks, securities, and automobile companies' ROE is expected to increase from 24 years to 25 years. Therefore, there should be conditions for improvement to enable a reevaluation of valuation. However, so far, it is still possible that 24 years will be similar to 25 years.

There is a view coming in. This should change. Especially for banks, it seems that the picture of surpassing the previous high may not come out. Another thing is that for banks, the performance is not that great in terms of interest rates or cycles. And currently, the consensus is showing a decline in performance from the first half to the second half. This should be turned around. So, we need to continue to have momentum where more money comes in, allowing us to do more than what we have done so far, such as dividends and share buybacks. We need to have the momentum to surpass the previous high. We are thinking that whether the third quarter or fourth quarter should be achieved to determine if the high point will be broken. First of all, China's consumption moved first, but recently what's moving is not Chinese consumption but U.S. consumption. It seems that the consumption rates of the second largest regions in China are surging. If I limit it to Chinese consumption, it seems to be rising like the graph on page 73.

In May, the Chinese consumer theme ETF, which was good, always crashed in June. So, recently, although it's a bit different topic like food, as I mentioned earlier, the cosmetics sector's recent profits are declining. I'm suggesting that we should be cautious about such things. And in terms of the overall trend of Chinese consumption, it will improve. It's a positive picture for the future, as I mentioned before. The improving trend follows afterwards, with stock prices leading the way. So, if it rises rapidly, it will have a short-term correction and then go up. If it turns slowly, it will have a deeper correction and then rise again. That's why the trend reversal is happening. Therefore, I think good trends are emerging in Chinese consumer-related stocks, food, and cosmetics sectors. Just like the machinery industry, their performance is also good.

These are good pictures, but can they rise more strongly? Is there enough momentum for that? I think they might want to check the second-quarter performance a bit more to do so. When you look at the pictures, overall, the performance is rising in hotels, leisure, essential consumer goods, and communications. Excluding media and education, but if you look, hotels and leisure were sold a lot to foreigners, and they bought back a bit last week. Communications sold, non-ferrous metals bought, and cosmetics and clothing continue to be bought, but have recently declined a lot, so they are buying again. So, they buy when they control it. From a foreign perspective, the current price seems burdensome. Therefore, even if they can buy after adjustments, they don't seem likely to chase buy at the current price range. So, right now, essential consumer goods like cosmetics and clothing are very strong. Although cosmetics have dropped a bit, there is a buying sentiment.

The strategy seems right. It's a bit difficult to chase and buy Chinese consumer goods and food cosmetics now. I have no doubts about the direction of Chosunju's performance. As I mentioned earlier, Chosunju is doing really well. The performance is good, everything is good. However, the stock price has not been good. Looking at the return rate since the beginning of the year, Chosunju's performance is quite ambiguous. It did better than the KOSPI. Yes, but in terms of resilience, it seems a bit unstable. The reason is that in April, for a month, it surged 15 percentage points more than the KOSPI, then took a break. The machinery sector surged, then took a break. Cosmetics surged, then took a break. It will take a break to some extent. However, one of the things that many people are confused about is that it leads, it leads, it leads.

Continuing to talk about new industries, what is a leading stock? It's a stock that goes up when the market goes up, goes down when it adjusts, and goes up when it rises. But is the market currently breaking through its peak and rising rapidly? It feels trapped. What jumps out in a trapped situation? It's leading stocks. Yes, among the leading stocks, one is the shipbuilding industry. Oh, it's about shipbuilding and semiconductors. So, I think that as the stock price exceeds 2,800, the leading stocks that have been quiet so far could start moving again. Within that, I think shipbuilding can be included as a representative of leading stocks. So, looking at the sharp increase in the beginning of the year, the industries that led the market as the KOSPI rose are almost gone. So, I think everything is good right now, including machinery, but what has been rising so far is rather the shipbuilding industry moving the market.

When the market takes a break, there will be a picture showing a bit of a rest. Especially when the stock prices surged dramatically in November and December, semiconductor and growth stocks moved together. I think similar trends could occur again. Just like back then, when the KOSPI reached 2800 and surpassed 2500, there were movements in the stock index. Therefore, I expect that during this process, semiconductor and growth stocks will play a central role. Currently, the U.S. stock levels seem to be responding to the overall U.S. situation. So, now I plan to significantly increase my investment in Korea. When the KOSPI is fluctuating around 2750, I will continue to hold about 40% in semiconductor, secondary battery, and internet stocks. Because they seem to have hit the bottom, and when the KOSPI exceeds 2850, I will adjust it to around 30-90%.

I think I will reduce what I filled in to 15, 15, 15. If it falls again, I will fill it up again, and if it sharply rebounds, I will reduce about half again. If it falls, I will fill it up again. I think I will do that until August. In July or August, if the KOSPI falls to the early 260s or unexpectedly down to the mid-250s, then I will fill up 90% again and just aim to hold until the end of the year. That's my short-term plan. Now, if in August it goes up to around 2600, I am thinking of diversifying a bit, adding industries like semiconductors, secondary batteries, internet, shipbuilding, and automobiles. So, maybe 20, 20, or 18, 18, 18. However, no matter how much stock I hold, I think it's good to carry at least 10% in cash. No matter how good you are, I think it's important to carry cash.

There are under shooting and over shooting that I couldn't do. Recently, if you look at the stock market, it's like breaking what was called a support line. Ah, if this breaks, it seems to go up to there, but the next day, it falls. Then, it breaks through the previous high or resistance level. So, if it seems like it can go up to this point, then we push it from the next day. This pattern has been repeating since the second half of last year. Therefore, I think it's good to have about 10% of emergency funds ready, right? And if an under shooting occurs, then it's okay to maximize profits through leverage ETFs or such strategies. So, let's prepare about 10% cash as a contingency plan for unexpected situations. I've been saying the same thing for a few months now.

When you feel like it might go up more, try to be a little less greedy, and when you feel like it might go down more, let's be courageous. I have been giving you advice like this continuously. It would be nice if you could do that for another month or two. But now, as we pass July and August, as the hot summer passes, I think it would be good to have a bit of leisure. So, if you trade a little bit briefly until June and July, prepare some leisure funds for summer vacation. Then you can go on summer vacation without much difficulty. Enjoy your time with this leisure money, and come back refreshed. I think I will be able to respond sufficiently even if you start anew. I hope everyone takes care of their health during the hot summer and comes back happily.

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1억 있으면 2차전지와 '이 주식' 사세요. 못 믿겠지만 여기까지 오른다 (이경민 부장, 대신증권 / 4부)

1억 있으면 2차전지와 '이 주식' 사세요. 못 믿겠지만 여기까지 오른다 (이경민 부장, 대신증권 / 4부)

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