Global Electric Vehicle Market: Challenges and Opportunities

The global electric car market's growth rate is stagnating, affected by factors like reduced subsidies, power outages, and increased competition from Chinese brands.

### Analysis of the Electric Vehicle Industry and the Impact of Tariffs on Chinese Companies
* 🔋  Despite a slight slowdown in electric vehicle sales growth due to factors such as reduced government subsidies and new car release delays, the U.S. market is showing potential, with hybrid sales increasing by **32%** and pure electric vehicle sales by **11%** in May.
* 🚗  Hyundai and Kia are well-positioned in the electric vehicle market, with the ability to **quickly scale production** and a **strong track record** in the hybrid segment.
* 💰  There is room for Hyundai and Kia to **increase shareholder returns**, as evidenced by GM's share buyback program and the **relatively low return rates** of automotive stocks globally.
* 🇨🇳  The U.S. and Europe's plans to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and batteries indicate a shift in focus to industries like **electric cars, AI, and semiconductors**, which could pose challenges for Chinese companies.
* 🔒  The regulations and competition in the U.S. and Europe could create opportunities for Korean battery companies, especially in the **mid- to low-end segments**.
* 🇺🇸  The U.S.'s tariff decision is seen as part of the ongoing competition between the Republicans and Democrats, and the situation is **not expected to change significantly** after the presidential election.
* 🌏  China's increasing focus on electric vehicles and batteries and the mood for internal restructuring suggest the need to **closely monitor future developments**.

So, originally, they were talking about imposing a 25% tariff, but now they are talking about imposing a 100% tariff, which means they want to completely block cars from entering. However, in the past, in cases like the US and the Eurozone, when we were fiercely fighting, they didn't pay much attention to industries like steel. Because they thought it was good for them to fight. But this time, with electric cars, AI, and semiconductor industries, they have no choice but to be sensitive to these areas. These industries are the ones they have to foster. If you could touch on the current situation of the electric car industry, including Hyundai Motor, from the second half of last year, the sales volume and growth rate of electric cars have decreased slightly. So, by the end of the year, it seems to have reached around the mid-30% compared to last year. This year, at the beginning of the year, I mean, talking about the US market, we can't sell to China.

Currently, from the perspective of the U.S. market, but if you look at the beginning of the year, it seems to have fluctuated around 10-11%, so the growth rate has slowed down a bit. The slowdown has various reasons, but to give a few examples, until the end of last year, there were about 43 items eligible for supplementary feeding, but after the regulations for child support were applied, those not eligible were all removed, reducing it to nine items, which led to a decrease in purchasing power. It became a bit difficult to buy electric cars, which also decreased, and there were delays in new car releases. Additionally, there were large-scale power outages at the beginning of the year, leading to a somewhat negative change in the overall image. However, recently, looking at the data for April and May, regarding electric car sales, in Germany...

The decrease in automotive harnesses has occurred, I'm telling you based on U.S. standards. However, on the other hand, when looking at GM or Hyundai Kia's Stellar Dislife, Tesla sells a lot more, so the decrease rate on that side is significant, which has led to a significant decrease in the sales growth rate itself. Because of these factors, there is a perspective that electric vehicles are improving and selling well, but when looking at the total, it is true that the growth rate has stagnated. You can see both perspectives. Recent data released in May by Mirae Asset Securities shows that the overall automotive sales growth rate is 5% in the U.S. However, among them, hybrid sales increased by 32%, and then pure electric vehicles by 11% based on May sales figures.

Companies that now have the intention to actively sell seem to be increasing. It seems like we need to focus on that. If we approach it in that context, in the end, it seems that those who have the willingness to sell and promote vigorously in the second half of this year will have a relatively better position. If we look at it from a monetary perspective, first, it seems that Hyundai and Kia in Korea will enter, and then GM or Stellantis will likely take the lead. As for Tesla, we may need to wait a bit longer. Regarding Hyundai and Kia, the market itself is not a growing industry, even though car sales are increasing by 5% in the US. The car market is not a growing industry itself. The electric vehicle segment is rising within the car market, and as demand for replacements increases, it will likely grow.

But now that I have all the portfolios, I can produce electric cars, have the platform, and can mass-produce them. Then, when it reaches a certain level, even if it's profitable, I can quickly turn around. Now, we have built this platform and when it comes to Hyundai and even Kia, confidently speaking, also in terms of hybrid cars, actually, currently, Hyundai and Kia are leading in the global market for hybrid cars, not to mention Toyota. Hyundai has always had a strong image of being affordable when it comes to internal combustion engines, but with Genesis rising a lot, and with SUVs rising a lot, the image is improving, and the overall value of the car is increasing. So, looking at all these things, for companies like Hyundai and Kia, even though the market growth rate of the automotive industry itself is not high, there is still more potential for the future.

You can expect more here, and what you need to pay attention to now is that recently GM's stock price has been doing well. It's not because they are selling electric cars well, but the number of electric cars has increased. What they are working hard on now is that they first bought back their own shares for $10 billion. As soon as it was finalized, they immediately purchased an additional $6 billion. The $6 billion is about 11% of the market capitalization. I hope Hyundai Motor does the same, not asking them to do so. Also, looking at the shareholder return rate, automotive stocks are relatively low. Globally, if they are low in the market, it's because they are not a growth industry. However, now they are focusing on electric cars and strengthening them. That's why Tesla's stock price soared. But the rest couldn't rise like that. The reason why the stock price has started to rise recently is leading.

The book has been enhanced, but as I wrote here, if you look at it, as I mentioned earlier, in fact, in the case of a company like that, if they buy back $10 billion in shares right after finishing purchasing $6 billion, that alone accounts for over 20% of the market capitalization. It might be close to 30%, not quite 30%. They are buying a tremendous amount. In addition, they can also increase dividends. However, compared to that, in the case of Hyundai, the shareholder return rate, which is essentially returning profits to shareholders, is at a level of 25%, while Japanese car companies are at 50%, and even Ford is over 100%. I'm not saying they should do it like Ford, but still, they should continue to make profits, expand, invest there, and there are many things they need to do. So, don't you think there is some room to increase shareholder returns a bit for Hyundai, Kia, especially for Kia.

The situation is that Hyundai has revealed its plan for share buybacks, but Hyundai has not yet disclosed that, so there is actually some expectation. Investors know that it will be in August now, originally it was supposed to be in June. It seems like it's being pushed back, and from there, won't that come out? Now, GM is buying back its shares like that, and Kia is even carrying out share buybacks. Then, if we look at companies like Toyota that pay dividends by combining share buybacks, they are still maintaining around 50%. Even if it's not 50%, they should raise it significantly more than now just with that. And the exchange rate is good these days, the exchange rate can only be good for the automotive market. Also, as I mentioned earlier, when Genesis brand starts selling, it will affect Avante or Sonata.

Selling one car has a much larger margin than selling multiple cars, so that's a point. Next, they are very strong in new car releases and new car development. Driving, Hyundai-Kia's strength in new cars is strong. In addition, there was news today, and it seems like there was an announcement. There was talk about Hyundai Motor Company's listing in India. It seems to be about $4 trillion in value. That means the company's value will increase by that much. So, in the case of Hyundai-Kia, it went up a bit today, but it's been going up continuously. It's okay to keep an eye on it. Especially last year, Hyundai Motor gave about 12,000 won in dividends. They will probably give more. They have already increased by 500 won per quarter, and if they announce it and strengthen it,

That could also be a plus alpha, and as India shows the listing, the intrinsic value will rise, and if these things come together, Hyundai Kia can still be seen positively in the future. What's being mentioned here now is related to the global electric vehicle dividend policy. But if you look at the dividend propensity, huh, Hyundai and Kia, it's all listed like this, Hyundai 255%, Kia 25%. But all Kia has risen to around 30%, and then considering even share buybacks or in the case of Toyota, taking into account the dividend propensity, looking at it, the shareholder return rate increases to 51%, as written below in the footnotes. So, considering these things, Hyundai has additional room to maneuver. For example, American cars like GM or Ford have a shareholder return rate of over 100%, which means they give back more than profits, so it's not the situation to do that.

It seems that we are similar, and we still have a little more room. Even if you see it that way, it seems okay. How do you see the current situation of Chinese tariffs after following the U.S.? First of all, the U.S. has not decided on the tariffs, but they are saying they will impose a 100% tariff. Originally, a 25% tariff was imposed, but now they are saying they will impose a 100% tariff, which means they won't allow cars to enter at all. Next, in Europe, there used to be a 10% tariff, but now they are saying they will impose up to 38% additional tariffs. This discussion is now about how this will affect the domestic electric vehicle battery market. In the electric vehicle market, countries like China always provide subsidies to grow the industry. Whenever they try to grow the industry, they always provide subsidies. If we look back, in the early 2000s, after joining the WTO, China was the first to jump into the chemical industry. Initially, they jumped into steel and chemicals.

Unfortunately, the industries we focused on were not lucky, and almost right after that, then again, the shipbuilding industry started to decline. As we competed, we collapsed. In fact, recently, a lot of money was invested in LCDs, preventing Korean companies from participating by creating subsidies. Consequently, in China, subsidies were given for vehicles equipped only with batteries made by Chinese companies in the secondary battery sector. So, Korean secondary battery companies couldn't sell in China. Therefore, as companies grew in this way, everyone started investing to receive subsidies, causing an oversupply. With oversupply, they couldn't figure out what to do, so they ended up dumping them cheaply abroad. This policy of always resorting to such practices was used, but now.

In the past, when we were fiercely fighting with countries like the United States and the European Union, we didn't pay much attention to industries like steel. Because they thought it would be good for them to fight as it was not their main focus. But this time, with electric cars, AI, and now semiconductor industries becoming sensitive, these are the industries that they are now nurturing, and ultimately, these are the industries that can radiate and connect in the end. So, ultimately, it can be a problem that can have a direct impact even if you don't pay attention. Various issues can be highlighted, so they have just started drawing a line in this area. Once they start taking action, it will inevitably become a bit more inconvenient for Chinese companies, like Chinese car manufacturers, to enter compared to before. And I also have some prejudice against Chinese cars, to be honest. That's why things are going this way.

It seems like it won't be comfortable to ride, you have to risk your life to drive. When you watch things like YouTube, you see a lot of negative things, so maybe that's why, I don't know. There are many things suddenly being set up like a fire, and they say it's a fire. But now, if something like this gets blocked, China won't retaliate immediately, but you have to keep in mind that ultimately, if this happens, the U.S. has blocked Chinese brands and companies from entering since the FOC regulations. But the problem is, in Europe, Chinese companies can still build car companies there. You can't stop that. But now, when they make something, there will be regulations for batteries and such. So, competition will be tougher. It's not just about making cars within China, it won't be cheap anymore, right? So, compared to before, now China, Chinese...

Even if a company produces our products in Europe, they cannot make them cheap just based on the price. So, when they face competition, eventually quality issues will arise. In that context, it's not bad for us. We can also provide a unique space, understanding this context. In fact, the U.S. saying not to come in with a 25% or 100% price increase is practically a way of competition between the Republicans and Democrats. After the presidential election, I believe that we will not be able to return to a close relationship with China like in the past, so I am thinking that this situation will not continue. Recently, even the Chinese authorities are focusing on electric cars and batteries.

Now, it's a bit of a mood to start internal restructuring, so now it seems necessary to keep an eye on those things. Oh, I think I can say that a bit, and in this case, industrially, when it comes to competition, Korea has always been at a disadvantage competing with China. Because cheap is good, so until then, it didn't matter if you guys were better or worse, as long as we bought cheaply. But now, it's a situation where we have to fight fiercely, and if the U.S. stays still, it won't be good. But they know how to make cars, but starting a battery business now is technologically challenging, so since you guys are making batteries, we now have some breathing room in that aspect. In Europe, there are many battery factories and battery companies, but except for Northvolt, it's not properly established yet.

It seems that there is no emerging battery company, and even if one is established now, it is likely that Korean companies will enter the local market. In fact, Korean companies will indirectly or directly receive some assistance as battery companies in that region. When looking at this context, in the case of secondary batteries, I have been talking about the cathode segment. It created a hidden space. If that wasn't there, it wouldn't be easy for us to leave our mark. In case we are pushed out by price, there might be a difficult space for us. Even if the products have significant differences, in such aspects, it is positive that we have created a hidden space. And later on, later on, now.

In terms of pricing, currently, China mainly focuses on LFP, while we are mainly focused on the NCM series. Recently, we have been actively developing in the direction of nickel for mid-tier batteries and are also heavily involved in the development of low- to mid-range batteries like LMFT. As these products begin to commercialize and become popular, many opportunities will open up for us. In the US, there is a trend of starting regulations on Chinese batteries in the energy storage market. Currently, in the ESS sector, LFP batteries have become commercialized by LG Chem in Korea, while others will take about 25 years to progress. As the market gradually shifts towards replacements, companies that can compete will eventually exclude Chinese batteries, limiting the options available.

In terms of profit, the three major battery companies in South Korea or the companies in Europe, in that context, if our markets and our companies can slightly overcome this difficult situation in the future, then maybe the next time, we can proceed more comfortably than expected. That's how I see it.

2차전지 IRA 수혜주 결정됐다. K-배터리 반등 기회 '여기서' 나온다 (이영훈 이사, 하이투자증권 / 2부)

* 출연신청 & 제휴 및 광고문의 : ssid@dpnstud.io


신사임당

The Impact of Tariffs on the Electric Car Industry

The tariff discussions have shifted from 25% to 100%, indicating a potential complete block on car imports, with a specific focus on the electric car, AI, and semiconductor industries.

The growth rate of electric car sales has slowed down due to various factors, including regulation changes, power outages, and a decrease in purchasing power.

Despite the overall stagnation, hybrid and pure electric vehicle sales have increased by 32% and 11% respectively in the US, leading to a growing intention among companies to actively promote and sell electric vehicles in the second half of the year.

Hyundai and Kia's Potential in the Automotive Market

Hyundai and Kia are excelling in the global market for hybrid cars, along with the rising popularity of their SUVs and the Genesis brand.

There is a significant potential for future growth for both companies, especially in the electric car sector.

The shareholder return rate for Hyundai is relatively low compared to other car companies, indicating room for increasing returns in the future.

Hyundai's Potential for Share Buybacks and Growth

Hyundai is expected to announce share buybacks in August, potentially being pushed back from the original June plan, following the footsteps of GM and Kia.

The company's value is projected to increase with its potential listing in India, and with a strong dividend propensity, there is room for increased shareholder return rate.

This, combined with their strength in new car releases, positions Hyundai Kia positively for the future.

Impact of Changing Tariffs on the Chinese Electric Vehicle Battery Market

The US is considering increasing tariffs on Chinese cars to 100%, which could block them from entering the market.

Meanwhile, Europe is also planning to impose higher tariffs, potentially affecting the domestic electric vehicle battery market.

China's practice of providing subsidies to its industries, such as the secondary battery sector, has led to oversupply and dumping of products abroad, causing tension with other countries.

These changes in tariff policies and the focus on emerging industries like electric cars and semiconductors could have a significant impact on Chinese companies, potentially making it more difficult for them to enter foreign markets.

Impact of Global Competition on the Car Industry and Battery Market

The US has blocked Chinese brands from entering, leading to tougher competition and potential quality issues for Chinese products.

The competition is causing a shift in the relationship between the US and China, with a focus on electric cars and batteries.

The situation is creating a need for other countries, like Korea, to adapt to the increased competition in the car and battery market.

The Impact of Korean Battery Companies on the Global Market

Korean battery companies are likely to dominate the emerging battery market, potentially pushing out other competitors.

The focus on the NCM series and nickel for mid-tier batteries is expected to create opportunities for expansion.

The trend of regulating Chinese batteries in the US energy storage market could benefit Korean companies in the future.